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Author Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend  (Read 116167 times)
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rpietila
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November 30, 2013, 10:20:04 AM
 #261

Imagine the market cap growth from sirius selling BTC5,000 for $5 at the time when it was 5% of the bitcoins (market cap = $100) to the 14 billion of today. That is:

14,000,000,000 % INCREASE. WE ARE ALREADY IN ALPHA CENTAURI; WHO CARES ABOUT THE REMAINING LOCAL BUS TRIP!!!!!!  Grin
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November 30, 2013, 11:49:36 AM
 #262

Now, it seems that I accidentally destroyed my calculation sheet  Embarrassed , so perhaps the ones who helped me previously, can recalculate the trendline and redraw the chart. Because the new value is above the previous trendline, it should steepen/raise it ever so slightly.

[…]

The current price of $1,144 is 249% ahead, which is an amber light that there is a high probability of a deep crash.

To whoever does the charts: could we have a chart in which the regression is plotted as y=0 and the price is drawn above of below it? The current price of 1144 would be plotted at 2.49. Useful to judge the over(bought,sold) conditions quickly and reliably.

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December 03, 2013, 06:54:50 PM
 #263

14,000,000,000 % INCREASE.

there's your division by zero - considering that in 2008, bitcoin value was zero, now we literally look at an infinite rise Smiley

i am satoshi
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December 03, 2013, 08:01:30 PM
 #264

This progression happens in every starting endeavor. 
It begins with nothing, and progresses.
Why the hyperbole?
Bitcoin is in beta, (I remind myself of this every time I re-balance my meager portfolio to keep no asset above 5%.)
It is still the early days, though Bitcoin is getting a bit overextended with all the current attention.
Its all good though, just yet another test which makes us stronger in an antifragile way.

FREE MONEY1 Bitcoin for Silver and Gold NewLibertyDollar.com and now BITCOIN SPECIE (silver 1 ozt) shows value by QR
Bulk premiums as low as .0012 BTC "BETTER, MORE COLLECTIBLE, AND CHEAPER THAN SILVER EAGLES" 1Free of Government
rpietila
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December 03, 2013, 08:08:13 PM
 #265

14,000,000,000 % INCREASE.

there's your division by zero - considering that in 2008, bitcoin value was zero, now we literally look at an infinite rise Smiley

Incorrect. Bitcoin did not exist in 2008. What Sirius sold in 2009 for $5 was exactly the same thing that, if kept, would now be worth $5M.

The market cap and the 14B% is of course a publicity stunt, but the 1M% increase is very much real. He told this to me in person.
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December 03, 2013, 08:47:23 PM
 #266

Can we get an update on the graph in the OP? Smiley

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December 04, 2013, 03:19:11 PM
 #267



R source: http://pastebin.com/peG2wg5p.
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December 04, 2013, 05:28:35 PM
 #268

So...  sell at US$1K until April?

No... you...

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December 04, 2013, 09:44:01 PM
 #269

So...  sell at US$1K until April?

No... you...

The target price for December is somewhere around $420 (if I can see clearly from the chart)
So, the price of $1100 is 2.6X trend. Which is in orange territory(not red yet). Maybe sell a small portion if needed, I do not recommend selling all as the trend catch up pretty quickly at 20% a month.

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December 06, 2013, 12:08:16 AM
 #270

chart, I have not found a reason to adjust the plots of this Andrews Pitchfork and more reasons to leave it on.

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December 07, 2013, 09:50:08 PM
 #271

So I guess the "crash" has just moved us back to more "normal" growth at this point? 

I guess the good thing is that each rise shows us that we are on our way to those new highs.  It should give us some confidence of where Bitcoin is going anyways.

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December 09, 2013, 10:21:28 AM
 #272

we are back +1000$  Smiley

IoTA
rpietila
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December 09, 2013, 11:17:50 AM
 #273

So I guess the "crash" has just moved us back to more "normal" growth at this point? 

I guess the good thing is that each rise shows us that we are on our way to those new highs.  It should give us some confidence of where Bitcoin is going anyways.

The problem is that the "crash" so far has not come even close the trendline. So either it was not a crash at all, or we will be visiting the trendline soon (down), or there is a new paradigm in bitcoin price (such as the one of growth spurts without deep crashes in 7/2010-6/2011).

It quacks like a crash. So my bets are hedged whether to visit the trend or continue higher in a sense that invalidates the trend.
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December 09, 2013, 06:44:22 PM
 #274

So I guess the "crash" has just moved us back to more "normal" growth at this point? 

I guess the good thing is that each rise shows us that we are on our way to those new highs.  It should give us some confidence of where Bitcoin is going anyways.

The problem is that the "crash" so far has not come even close the trendline. So either it was not a crash at all, or we will be visiting the trendline soon (down), or there is a new paradigm in bitcoin price (such as the one of growth spurts without deep crashes in 7/2010-6/2011).

It quacks like a crash. So my bets are hedged whether to visit the trend or continue higher in a sense that invalidates the trend.

I'm personally leaning toward the "revert to the trend" scenario, but suspect that it will get there mostly through time - rather than much greater price drops. Of course we could be seeing an acceleration of the trend with all the breakthrough acceptance BTC has achieved in the last month. If so I will be sad to let go of the current trend chart (even in exchange for a more aggressive line), as it has been very comforting to have next to my desk. But BTC keeps blowing my mind - and that is the name of the game - so I guess no reason to stop now.
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December 09, 2013, 09:00:29 PM
 #275

So I guess the "crash" has just moved us back to more "normal" growth at this point? 

I guess the good thing is that each rise shows us that we are on our way to those new highs.  It should give us some confidence of where Bitcoin is going anyways.

The problem is that the "crash" so far has not come even close the trendline. So either it was not a crash at all, or we will be visiting the trendline soon (down), or there is a new paradigm in bitcoin price (such as the one of growth spurts without deep crashes in 7/2010-6/2011).

It quacks like a crash. So my bets are hedged whether to visit the trend or continue higher in a sense that invalidates the trend.

New paradigm?  Sounds interesting.  Grin  If we have to adjust the trendline does that just mean that we are going to have an even higher or faster growth then we even expected based on the older charts?

I enjoy looking at the charts but I am in no way capable of making one.  If anyone wants to play with the numbers and throw up a new one with an adjusted growth rate based on this month's data it would be cool to look at.  But of course, it just might get my hopes up too much! Wink

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December 09, 2013, 09:02:51 PM
 #276

So I guess the "crash" has just moved us back to more "normal" growth at this point? 

I guess the good thing is that each rise shows us that we are on our way to those new highs.  It should give us some confidence of where Bitcoin is going anyways.

The problem is that the "crash" so far has not come even close the trendline. So either it was not a crash at all, or we will be visiting the trendline soon (down), or there is a new paradigm in bitcoin price (such as the one of growth spurts without deep crashes in 7/2010-6/2011).

It quacks like a crash. So my bets are hedged whether to visit the trend or continue higher in a sense that invalidates the trend.

I'm personally leaning toward the "revert to the trend" scenario, but suspect that it will get there mostly through time - rather than much greater price drops. Of course we could be seeing an acceleration of the trend with all the breakthrough acceptance BTC has achieved in the last month. If so I will be sad to let go of the current trend chart (even in exchange for a more aggressive line), as it has been very comforting to have next to my desk. But BTC keeps blowing my mind - and that is the name of the game - so I guess no reason to stop now.

You just need a new and improved chart next to your desk showing growth to $1,000,000 next year.  Grin  Hey, it is probably more accurate then the $1300 potential value for BTC that Bank of America somehow came up with last week!

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December 09, 2013, 09:14:50 PM
 #277

If we truly are going to the "more vertical" part of the S-curve, there's a possibility that the growth is so fast that it goes toward parabolic rather than logarithmic.  So we may be seeing that uptick OR we may be WAY ahead of where we should be still (although $500 seems VERY firm at this point).

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December 09, 2013, 10:39:34 PM
 #278

Using all data from MtGox from bitcoincharts, the trend is 1 doubling every 120 days, 8x in a year, or 0.571% per day.  Also, the current expected value from the trend is $250.  In an equation this gives:

$ = 250*1.00571days from today  
$ = 250*1.186months from now
$ = 250*8years from now

Only 8 x 250 = $2000 next December.  But I think the complete change in trust the past few month is a 1-time bonus that shifts the trend up without affecting the long-term growth rate.  If $900 is fair right now, then the equation is

$ = 900*1.00571days from today  
$ = 900*1.186months from now
$ = 900*8years from now

or 8x900 = $5,600 next December.

The theoretical limit is $1 million per coin based on the world money supply.

Imagine the influx if some banks want to hold it as an asset.  All that Fed money buying up toxic assets has got to go somewhere.  It has not been going to M2 which has been stable.  They're just shoring up and dumping their toxic waste.  The bank crime against taxpayers is on going, and people act confused as to why inflation is not higher.  Banks are keeping it, not distributing it.

rpietila
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December 09, 2013, 10:43:12 PM
 #279

If we truly are going to the "more vertical" part of the S-curve, there's a possibility that the growth is so fast that it goes toward parabolic rather than logarithmic.  So we may be seeing that uptick OR we may be WAY ahead of where we should be still (although $500 seems VERY firm at this point).

Where were we 30 days ago? Oh yes, $290, and just had crossed the ATH and everybody felt so good.

Now, $912 seems "cheap" to them who would like it go to the moon before Christmas.

There is still so much air in the bubble. Hard to know, which outcome I would like most, ch00 ch00 or orderly reversion to the trend.
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December 09, 2013, 11:28:37 PM
 #280

If we truly are going to the "more vertical" part of the S-curve, there's a possibility that the growth is so fast that it goes toward parabolic rather than logarithmic.  So we may be seeing that uptick OR we may be WAY ahead of where we should be still (although $500 seems VERY firm at this point).

Where were we 30 days ago? Oh yes, $290, and just had crossed the ATH and everybody felt so good.

Now, $912 seems "cheap" to them who would like it go to the moon before Christmas.

There is still so much air in the bubble. Hard to know, which outcome I would like most, ch00 ch00 or orderly reversion to the trend.

An orderly trend is just way too boring!  Wink

I guess boring is predictable though and there is some comfort to be had in that for sure.  Strange as it might sound, most people would probably prefer a more orderly progression.  Unpredictability is hard for most to stomach.

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