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Author Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend  (Read 115599 times)
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Zangelbert Bingledack
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November 22, 2013, 06:38:16 PM
 #221

Watch out for emunie, it may just take the crypto crown.

Any cryptocurrency aiming to have low volatility will have low adoption. It seems the creator doesn't understand economics.

+1 Smiley Hey your name makes me think of Engelbert Humperdinck. How cool to have a name like that!

Yeah I found it on TV Tropes in an article on inherently funny names, including Humperdinck. It struck me as the funniest, so I kept it as my own. If it were my real name...well that would be pretty fun.
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November 23, 2013, 06:50:14 PM
 #222

The way I am considering things price movement reflects adoption. This thread talks about existing markets but what about non-existent markets?

Bitcoin is being examined as currency but I've recently (this year) come to realize it is a protocol. Because I see Bitcoin as a protocol I readily accept the need for alt coins to serve as stand alone ledgers or subledgers. Since I believe in the need for alt-coins I'll accept a need for one to serve as the foundation by which all others are measured. Bitcoin has the first mover advantage.

Any data flowing on the internet is potential energy for the Bitcoin protocol.

Recently it was announced in the U.S. that the 'National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is considering mandating V2V (vehicle-to-vehicle communications to request automobile manufacturers place communications technology that constantly broadcasts via radio wave the car’s location, direction, speed and, possibly, even the number of passengers it is carrying'. - ref. cnsnews.com.

Imagine the Bitcoin protocol owning V2V data and placing it in a public blockchain. Now imagine the only way to retrieve that data and trace it to an individual is through a complementary blockchain that has to identify who they are as they retrieve that data. Regulators can have fun with that topic but I've got other motives, Bitcoin has the potential to regulate the surveillance, to give me a voice. Commercial interests are welcome to buy my data - or perhaps I could block them. Maybe local government takes some of my data for taxes so they can fill the pothole I'm always braking for. Or, let's not measure a thing and all go live in the woods. For me, the debate is over. This is just one wild and maybe impractical idea - though nothing should be impossible - but I know for sure there are going to be millions of other ideas just as wild and some will even be practical.

This thread is about price: I've graphed using an Andrews Pitchfork to derive a very broad channel for price on a log chart. Currently I like this fork because it visually back tests well. The channels, or curves on fork are based on fibonacci commonly used in technical analysis. If this fork is 'in tune' with price going forward there will be price reversals frequently occurring coincident to these upward sloping channels. Though this Andrews Pitchfork is plotted from within the greater time scale, it visually rhymes with the long term logarithmic chart backtested by trendlines to key price points. (note that according to BTC on Tradingview data I have 'the floor' at one-cent on 10-04-2010. I am new using Tradingview software, growing to like it the more I use it, so sorry for the lack of labeling on the chart but you can easily make the chart your own by right clicking on the fractals and altering the settings to try different fibs.

Edit: interactive chart link: https://www.tradingview.com/e/M1ZPd859/





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November 23, 2013, 07:44:05 PM
 #223

Your log regression line looks similar to the one I plotted with a logistic function. In particular it is notable that 1000 is expected by Q1 2013 and 10000 is expected about a year later.
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November 23, 2013, 08:02:44 PM
 #224

Your log regression line looks similar to the one I plotted with a logistic function. In particular it is notable that 1000 is expected by Q1 2013 and 10000 is expected about a year later.

I woke up a few days ago to the unexpected: we had crossed 1000 Wink
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November 24, 2013, 12:16:32 PM
 #225

This thread talks about existing markets but what about non-existant markets?

One almost universal mistake made in long-term price targets is the ceteris paribus fallacy. The idea is that Bitcoin will be used for everything that gold and fiat money is used for today, and everything else will stay the same. The reasoning goes, "If Bitcoin takes over the world, the price will reflect the value of what it took over: gold's functionality as a store of value, PayPal's transactional functionality, and the money supply of the world's currencies." Such estimates generally put the target price between $100,000 and several million dollars (in today's dollars).

That's a bit like arguing, in 1994, that email will be worth the value of the postal system.

Looking to a future year when the entire global economy is denominated in bitcoins, 1 BTC won't just be worth ~1/21,000,000 of today's global output. It won't just be worth ~1/21,000,000 of whatever the global output would have been in that year if Bitcoin had never arisen. It will be worth ~1/21,000,000 of the global output of a Bitcoin-enabled world.

A world with friction-free commerce, small and relatively much more efficient government (if any), absolutely booming business thanks to predictable "monetary policy" and market-defined interest rates and free stock markets, and a radically internationalized division of labor. Any one of those four should be enough to increase global output by an order of magnitude, if not more. But all four of them at once? Not to mention all the future applications like escrow, smart property, assurance contracts, distributed autonomous corporations (DACs) and autonomous agents, etc.

Given all that, and taking into account how all of this is included in the binary bet, I think the target price should be in the billions per coin. The timescale is less clear, but probably within a decade after mainstream adoption is reached.

Anyone with an mBTC will be set for life.

EDIT: To be clear, the price target for initial mainstream adoption probably is between $100,000 and $10,000,000 or so. I'm guessing $1 million as a conservative target. But once the dust settles we start into the economy-wide effects of a Bitcoin world and continue up a few more orders of magnitude in not very many years.
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November 24, 2013, 12:42:13 PM
 #226

I was locked in for $300k, and now it is not delusional anymore, or even conservative, it is actually the initial step, and selling at that price should truthfully be called "selling your birthright for pea soup".

I <3 bitcoin. In the world of such abundance, who needs money anymore?
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November 24, 2013, 02:22:15 PM
 #227

I was locked in for $300k, and now it is not delusional anymore, or even conservative, it is actually the initial step, and selling at that price should truthfully be called "selling your birthright for pea soup".

I <3 bitcoin. In the world of such abundance, who needs money anymore?

It's almost too good to be true. But sometimes things just are indeed very good, and usually that's because things sucked a lot before and that suckiness has been alleviated.
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November 24, 2013, 02:27:48 PM
 #228


....snip

Anyone with an mBTC will be set for life.

snip...


So I guess I should'nt delete an old wallet I have with 0.00773931  on it   Smiley


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Martin Armstrong
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November 24, 2013, 03:31:32 PM
 #229

This thread talks about existing markets but what about non-existant markets?

One almost universal mistake made in long-term price targets is the ceteris paribus fallacy. The idea is that Bitcoin will be used for everything that gold and fiat money is used for today, and everything else will stay the same. The reasoning goes, "If Bitcoin takes over the world, the price will reflect the value of what it took over: gold's functionality as a store of value, PayPal's transactional functionality, and the money supply of the world's currencies." Such estimates generally put the target price between $100,000 and several million dollars (in today's dollars).

That's a bit like arguing, in 1994, that email will be worth the value of the postal system.

Looking to a future year when the entire global economy is denominated in bitcoins, 1 BTC won't just be worth ~1/21,000,000 of today's global output. It won't just be worth ~1/21,000,000 of whatever the global output would have been in that year if Bitcoin had never arisen. It will be worth ~1/21,000,000 of the global output of a Bitcoin-enabled world.

A world with friction-free commerce, small and relatively much more efficient government (if any), absolutely booming business thanks to predictable "monetary policy" and market-defined interest rates and free stock markets, and a radically internationalized division of labor. Any one of those four should be enough to increase global output by an order of magnitude, if not more. But all four of them at once? Not to mention all the future applications like escrow, smart property, assurance contracts, distributed autonomous corporations (DACs) and autonomous agents, etc.

Given all that, and taking into account how all of this is included in the binary bet, I think the target price should be in the billions per coin. The timescale is less clear, but probably within a decade after mainstream adoption is reached.

Anyone with an mBTC will be set for life.

EDIT: To be clear, the price target for initial mainstream adoption probably is between $100,000 and $10,000,000 or so. I'm guessing $1 million as a conservative target. But once the dust settles we start into the economy-wide effects of a Bitcoin world and continue up a few more orders of magnitude in not very many years.

Heh... I'd like to see the efforts people apply to securing their private keys when bitcoins are worth a billion dollars each. (or conversely, the efforts thieves will apply to stealing them)
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November 24, 2013, 04:22:31 PM
 #230

Heh... I'd like to see the efforts people apply to securing their private keys when bitcoins are worth a billion dollars each. (or conversely, the efforts thieves will apply to stealing them)

I have long been thinking why anyone cares to be a malicious hacker anymore, as hackers are the first ones to have heard about bitcoin, and are already so rich, or will be, if they just gain bitcoins.

If somebody after knowing all this, decides to rather steal the bitcoins that will make him rich, than buy them, he must be an evil person. (I don't think many people are truly evil.)

Just ask the multitude of people on here that have lost tons of coins due to hacking.....

"We are just fools. We insanely believe that we can replace one politician with another and something will really change. The ONLY possible way to achieve change is to change the very system of how government functions. Until we are prepared to do that, suck it up for your future belongs to the madness and corruption of politicians."
Martin Armstrong
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November 24, 2013, 04:34:21 PM
 #231

The way I am considering things price movement reflects adoption. This thread talks about existing markets but what about non-existant markets?
Bitcoin is being examined as currency but I've recently (this year) come to realize it is a protocol. Because I see Bitcoin as a protocol I readily accept the need for alt coins to serve as stand alone ledgers or subledgers. Since I believe in the need for alt-coins I'll accept a need for one to serve as the foundation by which all others are measured. Bitcoin has the first mover advantage.

Any data flowing on the internet is potential energy for the Bitcoin protocol.

Recently it was announced in the U.S. that the 'National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is considering mandating V2V (vehicle-to-vehicle communications to request automobile manufacturers place communications technology that constantly broadcasts via radio wave the car’s location, direction, speed and, possibly, even the number of passengers it is carrying'. - ref. cnsnews.com.

Imagine the Bitcoin protocol owning V2V data and placing it in a public blockchain. Now imagine the only way to retrieve that data and trace it to an individual is through a complementary blockchain that has to identify who they are as they retrieve that data. Regulators can have fun with that topic but I've got other motives, Bitcoin has the potential to regulate the surveillance, to give me a voice. Commercial interests are welcome to buy my data - or perhaps I could block them. Maybe local government takes some of my data for taxes so they can fill the pothole I'm always braking for. Or, let's not measure a thing and all go live in the woods. For me, the debate is over. This is just one wild and maybe impractical idea - though nothing should be impossible - but I know for sure there are going to be millions of other ideas just as wild and some will be practical.

This thread is about price: I've graphed using an Andrews Pitchfork to derive a very broad channel for price on a log chart. Currently I like this fork because it visually back tests well. The channels, or curves on fork are based on fibonacci commonly used in technical analysis. If this fork is 'in tune' with price going forward there will be price reversals frequently occurring coincident to these upward sloping channels. Though this Andrews Pitchfork is plotted from within the greater time scale, it visually rhymes with the long term logarithmic chart backtested by trendlines to key price points. (note that according to BTC on Tradingview data I have 'the floor' at one-cent on 10-04-2010. I am new using Tradingview software, growing to like it the more I use it, so sorry for the lack of labeling on the chart but you can easily make the chart your own by right clicking on the fractals and altering the settings to try different fibs.

Edit: interactive chart link: https://www.tradingview.com/e/M1ZPd859/








That chart is simply amazing.
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November 24, 2013, 04:37:01 PM
 #232

Heh... I'd like to see the efforts people apply to securing their private keys when bitcoins are worth a billion dollars each. (or conversely, the efforts thieves will apply to stealing them)

I have long been thinking why anyone cares to be a malicious hacker anymore, as hackers are the first ones to have heard about bitcoin, and are already so rich, or will be, if they just gain bitcoins.

If somebody after knowing all this, decides to rather steal the bitcoins that will make him rich, than buy them, he must be an evil person. (I don't think many people are truly evil.)

Just ask the multitude of people on here that have lost tons of coins due to hacking.....

Indeed. Risto, your opinion about this is a bit naive Smiley

When stealing is more opportunistic (implied costs of stealing including risk of failure and consequences) than buying, quite a lot of people will steal.

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November 24, 2013, 08:03:18 PM
 #233

This thread talks about existing markets but what about non-existant markets?

One almost universal mistake made in long-term price targets is the ceteris paribus fallacy. The idea is that Bitcoin will be used for everything that gold and fiat money is used for today, and everything else will stay the same. The reasoning goes, "If Bitcoin takes over the world, the price will reflect the value of what it took over: gold's functionality as a store of value, PayPal's transactional functionality, and the money supply of the world's currencies." Such estimates generally put the target price between $100,000 and several million dollars (in today's dollars).

That's a bit like arguing, in 1994, that email will be worth the value of the postal system.

Looking to a future year when the entire global economy is denominated in bitcoins, 1 BTC won't just be worth ~1/21,000,000 of today's global output. It won't just be worth ~1/21,000,000 of whatever the global output would have been in that year if Bitcoin had never arisen. It will be worth ~1/21,000,000 of the global output of a Bitcoin-enabled world.

A world with friction-free commerce, small and relatively much more efficient government (if any), absolutely booming business thanks to predictable "monetary policy" and market-defined interest rates and free stock markets, and a radically internationalized division of labor. Any one of those four should be enough to increase global output by an order of magnitude, if not more. But all four of them at once? Not to mention all the future applications like escrow, smart property, assurance contracts, distributed autonomous corporations (DACs) and autonomous agents, etc.

Given all that, and taking into account how all of this is included in the binary bet, I think the target price should be in the billions per coin. The timescale is less clear, but probably within a decade after mainstream adoption is reached.

Anyone with an mBTC will be set for life.

EDIT: To be clear, the price target for initial mainstream adoption probably is between $100,000 and $10,000,000 or so. I'm guessing $1 million as a conservative target. But once the dust settles we start into the economy-wide effects of a Bitcoin world and continue up a few more orders of magnitude in not very many years.

Newbies remark here: we have to consider other cryptocurrencies as well, not only Bitcoin...

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November 24, 2013, 08:35:41 PM
 #234

As long as Bitcoin retains dominance, the altcoins will only ever account for a few percent of the total cryptocurrency market cap. Compared to the exponential growth and multiple orders of magnitude of error in our projections, that percentage should be negligible from where we stand now.
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November 24, 2013, 08:36:30 PM
 #235

This thread talks about existing markets but what about non-existant markets?

One almost universal mistake made in long-term price targets is the ceteris paribus fallacy. The idea is that Bitcoin will be used for everything that gold and fiat money is used for today, and everything else will stay the same. The reasoning goes, "If Bitcoin takes over the world, the price will reflect the value of what it took over: gold's functionality as a store of value, PayPal's transactional functionality, and the money supply of the world's currencies." Such estimates generally put the target price between $100,000 and several million dollars (in today's dollars).

That's a bit like arguing, in 1994, that email will be worth the value of the postal system.

Looking to a future year when the entire global economy is denominated in bitcoins, 1 BTC won't just be worth ~1/21,000,000 of today's global output. It won't just be worth ~1/21,000,000 of whatever the global output would have been in that year if Bitcoin had never arisen. It will be worth ~1/21,000,000 of the global output of a Bitcoin-enabled world.

A world with friction-free commerce, small and relatively much more efficient government (if any), absolutely booming business thanks to predictable "monetary policy" and market-defined interest rates and free stock markets, and a radically internationalized division of labor. Any one of those four should be enough to increase global output by an order of magnitude, if not more. But all four of them at once? Not to mention all the future applications like escrow, smart property, assurance contracts, distributed autonomous corporations (DACs) and autonomous agents, etc.

Given all that, and taking into account how all of this is included in the binary bet, I think the target price should be in the billions per coin. The timescale is less clear, but probably within a decade after mainstream adoption is reached.

Anyone with an mBTC will be set for life.

EDIT: To be clear, the price target for initial mainstream adoption probably is between $100,000 and $10,000,000 or so. I'm guessing $1 million as a conservative target. But once the dust settles we start into the economy-wide effects of a Bitcoin world and continue up a few more orders of magnitude in not very many years.

While I agree this is true. I think people are just being conservative using today's economy as basis for calculating the expected future value of Bitcoin.
The numbers are so big and unimaginable anyway, what's a few orders of magnitude.

I'm imagining the news stories in 15 years when somebody finds a forgotten wallet with a few Bitcoins.
"Instant multi-billionaire!"
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Zangelbert Bingledack
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November 24, 2013, 08:38:37 PM
 #236

Yeah it's true that these numbers get so astronomical that it hardly matters anyway. It's going to be "lots and lots of cash."
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November 24, 2013, 08:55:54 PM
 #237

watching this Smiley

www.cryptocoincharts.info - long term charts for 800+ coins like BTC, LTC, NXT, DOGE
www.cryptoassetcharts.info - charts for decentralized assets like NXT AE, XCP, MSC, ...
BTC donations: 1DRVMYRMFafdtXJF1tivwyoR1SF8LDNKWj
Bitrated user: cryptocoinchart.
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November 24, 2013, 09:01:39 PM
 #238

Anyone want to check what is the volume weighted price so far this month?

And should we change the weighting? Currently it is 100% Bitstamp. I think it is the best if we want to have 100% one exchange. Do we?
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November 25, 2013, 03:06:24 AM
 #239

Risto if am I not mistaken it appears to me the volatility is rising?

What would rising volatility tell you, if anything about a trading market?

A warning sign, and an indication to take a look to the support levels.

However this is bitcoin...this time its different.  Wink

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November 25, 2013, 04:30:49 PM
 #240

Very interesting post and graphics, thanks!
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