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Author Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend  (Read 117310 times)
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Valerian77
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August 16, 2014, 12:24:30 PM
 #561

Somebody dumped and the price reacted. But the reaction was little because the price starts to surge already again. Since the transaction volume and the price trend was stuck before this down trend was the best what could have happened for now. Maybe it would be good if the Bitcoin price would be drowned to 450 USD.

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Trolololo
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October 23, 2014, 10:23:13 AM
 #562

I have made a non-linear regression of the historic Bitcoin prices:





Calculate today's trendline price here: wolframalpha.com

More info here: Logarithmic (non-linear) regression - Bitcoin estimated value
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October 25, 2014, 02:33:02 PM
 #563

Somebody dumped and the price reacted. But the reaction was little because the price starts to surge already again. Since the transaction volume and the price trend was stuck before this down trend was the best what could have happened for now. Maybe it would be good if the Bitcoin price would be drowned to 450 USD.
Bitcoin's price might be in decline now, but soon it will skyrocket! I think if people have more straight forward ways to buy Bitcoins, it will eventually help big time! We need more websites that trade Moneypak to Bitcoin, Paypal to Bitcoin etc.... Also, there are almost no traders that accept Credit cards, but i understand their fears of chargebacks.

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January 20, 2015, 04:00:07 AM
 #564

We're off with this.
Now all we hear is "price doesn't matter"
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January 21, 2015, 02:14:58 PM
 #565

We're off with this.
Now all we hear is "price doesn't matter"

I think this is happening:

Crossing the chasm:


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January 21, 2015, 02:23:18 PM
 #566

We're off with this.
Now all we hear is "price doesn't matter"

I think this is happening:

Crossing the chasm:

Not yet. First, we have to be paying simple reoccurring things with Bitcoin before we get out the speculative phase. And that will happen only at much higher prices...

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rpietila
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January 21, 2015, 03:41:59 PM
 #567

We're off with this.
Now all we hear is "price doesn't matter"

I think this is happening:

Crossing the chasm:

Not yet. First, we have to be paying simple reoccurring things with Bitcoin before we get out the speculative phase. And that will happen only at much higher prices...

Or:

We have to habitually save in Bitcoin and think of prices in Bitcoin terms. (The functions of money.)

I've been doing all three for 2 years soon.
Roccker
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January 21, 2015, 04:04:47 PM
 #568

Great thread! Updates on this? Regards..

[am a noob]
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Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.


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January 24, 2015, 02:53:29 AM
 #569


Result:


What does this mean?

Any significantly advanced cryptocurrency is indistinguishable from Ponzi Tulips.
rpietila
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January 24, 2015, 03:09:46 AM
 #570


Result:


What does this mean?

That the baseline Bitcoin price is $6k, and we are  s e r i o u s l y  undervalued atm. It does not go to the baseline when it shoots, it shoots up, perhaps as high above as we are now below.

(The trendline is of course subject to update with each datapoint, so it should be more like 3-4k, and the next top also a low-5-figure amount, instead of a six-figure one)
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February 17, 2015, 10:18:14 AM
 #571

Good stuff never dies. I did the exponential trendline analysis for the first time in some time. The presentation of the graphics is still not my strong area so please ask for the graphs with instructions. I have them but don't know how to transfer them here  Embarrassed

- The trendline has been revised down in each of the recalculations (I did one every 2-3 months). The trendline price is $3,210 (cf. it would have been $6,000 if the year-ago trend were extrapolated).

- Until 7/2014, the trendline R^2 got better all the time, peaking at 0.9353. Since 7/2014, the R^2 has been getting lower and is now 0.9246. The linear fit in exponential chart is no more the best fit. Eg. the 3rd degree polynomial y = -0,000000x3 + 0,000002x2 + 0,001635x - 2,740811 gives the R^2 = 0.9480. This trendline shows its apex in the latter part of 2014, and is now in decline.

- The variation from the exponential trend that was contained at [-0.6, 0.5] units log ever since autumn-2011, is now broken and we are at -1,13 currently. We have never been this low, because the trend was only established a few months after Mt.Gox opened in 2010, and initially we were all the time above the trend.

- Absent all fundamental considerations (mainly: recognition, adoption, tx number and volume, trade volume, acceptance, economy size, VC investment - which all point to a continuing uptrend) it is possible that the exponential uptrend is broken.

- Considering all fundamental considerations, and the fact that regardless of the trendline we choose, we are currently well below it, the situation now is favorable to go long instead of short.
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February 17, 2015, 03:02:36 PM
 #572

We're off with this.
Now all we hear is "price doesn't matter"

I think this is happening:

Crossing the chasm:




I assume this chart refers to the amount of people joining?

dnaleor
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February 19, 2015, 03:58:23 AM
 #573

We're off with this.
Now all we hear is "price doesn't matter"

I think this is happening:

Crossing the chasm:




I assume this chart refers to the amount of people joining?



yes,

If you take the "integral" of this chart, you should get the total number of users (and in my opinion that needs to correlate closely to the market cap)

Searching for a trusted escrow service? Check my trust. I use a Trezor device for my escrow services, so your coins are safe. Fee: 0.5% or 0.05 BTC, whichever is lower
I support the largest public transparent p2p ledger Bitcoin (16TwXyEmpz7xKHbyVufZECXGFmUH9wHUyW) and the best private fungible digital cash Monero (dnaleor.weuse.cash)
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AtheistAKASaneBrain
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February 21, 2015, 03:59:53 PM
 #574

We're off with this.
Now all we hear is "price doesn't matter"

I think this is happening:

Crossing the chasm:


I think we are still visionaries. Ask around and its like 1/10 people have even heard of bitcoin in real life.

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Satoshi is rolling in his grave. #bitcoin


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February 21, 2015, 08:29:47 PM
 #575

We're off with this.
Now all we hear is "price doesn't matter"

I think this is happening:

Crossing the chasm:


I think we are still visionaries. Ask around and its like 1/10 people have even heard of bitcoin in real life.

U could say that, but thats not the reason why bitcoin isnt much higher priced and adopted. The main problem is lack of regulations surrounding bitcoin, and while any dumbo can open up a bitcoin exchange without being able to protect themselves against theft, and provide a transparent business, im surprised were still in tripple digits.
Protect businesses, protect clients that are investing, and we will have great success, until then , bitcoin will allways be considered shady to say atleast.

cheers
Bagatell
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February 21, 2015, 09:08:24 PM
 #576

Protect businesses, protect clients that are investing, and we will have great success, until then , bitcoin will always be considered shady to say the least.

cheers

Who's going to do that? The current regulators are more like accomplices than guardians. 
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February 21, 2015, 09:19:12 PM
 #577

regulations are not protections, they are protection rackets.

People advocating for regulations are the either the racketeers or, amazingly, their gullible marks.

rpietila
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February 21, 2015, 09:54:30 PM
 #578

Good stuff never dies. I did the exponential trendline analysis for the first time in some time. The presentation of the graphics is still not my strong area so please ask for the graphs with instructions. I have them but don't know how to transfer them here  Embarrassed

- The trendline has been revised down in each of the recalculations (I did one every 2-3 months). The trendline price is $3,210 (cf. it would have been $6,000 if the year-ago trend were extrapolated).

- Until 7/2014, the trendline R^2 got better all the time, peaking at 0.9353. Since 7/2014, the R^2 has been getting lower and is now 0.9246. The linear fit in exponential chart is no more the best fit. Eg. the 3rd degree polynomial y = -0,000000x3 + 0,000002x2 + 0,001635x - 2,740811 gives the R^2 = 0.9480. This trendline shows its apex in the latter part of 2014, and is now in decline.

- The variation from the exponential trend that was contained at [-0.6, 0.5] units log ever since autumn-2011, is now broken and we are at -1,13 currently. We have never been this low, because the trend was only established a few months after Mt.Gox opened in 2010, and initially we were all the time above the trend.

- Absent all fundamental considerations (mainly: recognition, adoption, tx number and volume, trade volume, acceptance, economy size, VC investment - which all point to a continuing uptrend) it is possible that the exponential uptrend is broken.

- Considering all fundamental considerations, and the fact that regardless of the trendline we choose, we are currently well below it, the situation now is favorable to go long instead of short.

The subject of the thread. I even promised pictures if you tell me which aspect needs visualization.
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February 23, 2015, 02:55:10 PM
 #579

We're off with this.
Now all we hear is "price doesn't matter"

I think this is happening:

Crossing the chasm:


I think we are still visionaries. Ask around and its like 1/10 people have even heard of bitcoin in real life.

U could say that, but thats not the reason why bitcoin isnt much higher priced and adopted. The main problem is lack of regulations surrounding bitcoin, and while any dumbo can open up a bitcoin exchange without being able to protect themselves against theft, and provide a transparent business, im surprised were still in tripple digits.
Protect businesses, protect clients that are investing, and we will have great success, until then , bitcoin will allways be considered shady to say atleast.

cheers

Our only hope is now on the Winklevii brothers to deliver a solid alternative with the Gemini exchange. I really really really hope they don't fuck up, that would be terrible. If even the supposedly trusteable exchanges like theirs fail to be solid, then it's game over.

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February 23, 2015, 03:30:33 PM
 #580

Our only hope is now on the Winklevii brothers to deliver a solid alternative with the Gemini exchange. I really really really hope they don't fuck up, that would be terrible. If even the supposedly trusteable exchanges like theirs fail to be solid, then it's game over.

Well, that sounds really really pathetic.
Why would we be dependent on twins.
If bitcoin was only dependent on them, it would be a *massive* failure already.

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