Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend

[AnonyMint]

Because bitcoin price appreciation front-runs the underlying bitcoin economy, there will be some set of expectation-changing circumstances that end the exponential growth and mark the mid-point of speculation adoption. The factors such as those you mention might just be those expectation-changing events.

Rpietila believes that there will be a final blow-off crash at the peak bitcoin price. You may believe that bitcoin may crash way back down, but I think that the final blow-off peak will be resolved by a damped oscillation similar in shape to April-August 2013 - settling down to a bumpy plateau which will benefit the underlying bitcoin payment economy as it disrupts the current payment infrastructure.

Shaped like this ...

Look at Cisco and Microsoft, they both recovered after the waterfall crash at a much lower price after some oscillation, but not as symmetric as you charted.

Unless something replaces Bitcoin entirely, then that would be the normal outcome.

So I think we are all roughly in agreement then. Looks like 2 - 4 years before that waterfall risk is upon us.

The lack of shorting means you will likely get more flash crash opportunities to buy.

Hopefully there will be deep shorting markets before 2016 and the risk of the waterfall permanent sell off. Without shorting, it could go too high before the crash and too low after, as more a mania.

If I was sure I could buy and sell anonymously in large size, I would have been buying since $50 when rpietila suggested I look at Bitcoin. Or surely since $120. But alas, it is not worth it to me as a US citizen. They are going to come after us very aggressively. I didn't get rid of that citizenship soon enough. A US person with more than $2 million in networth has to go through very intense audits before he can renounce citizenship. I purposely sold everything I had invested (in silver and stocks) at a loss to avoid capital gains.

Fucking IRS tax code only gives a $3000 per year allowance for claiming capital losses on future gains.

Buttcoin is not good enough. I want something that will really set us free.

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[SlipperySlope]

The biggest problem right now with Bitcoin price is there is no market to short it, thus there is no liquidity on the downside and the upside has no balancing brake on speculation. This is extremely dangerous.

Normally shorts will cover on the downside, thus providing buyers for those who are panic selling. Bitcoin doesn't have this, so it can end up like the Tulip Mania.

I accept and understand your well-founded critique of my use of the logistic function to model bitcoin price behavior.

Regarding the ability to short bitcoin, I participated last spring in the lending program provided by Hong Kong-based Bitfinex, who provide margin and short selling for bitcoin speculators. I withdrew from the modest bitcoin returns that I gained due to my perceived risk, remote but nonetheless catostrophic, that the exchange could be hacked or bankrupted. In addition to the well established Bitfinex, a just-announced startup Coinsetter in New York says that they will be fully compliant with applicable US financial institution regulations and offer short selling too. You can purchase short options on MPEx http://mpex.co/ .
  

[AnonyMint]

Any one with large size in Bitcoin has to make sure they sell well before the peak. The larger the holding, the earlier they must start selling. Or they use their coins as margin in a deep shorting market, so they retain their coin value by increasing the number of coins they own upon the crash.

Thus I expect deep shorting markets to come as the market cap becomes significant.

The large holders know they can't sell as a way out, they must short as the way out.

Deep shorting markets might also discourage some capital from buying altcoin competitor as a hedge, although I think if any altcoin succeeds it must appreciate faster than Bitcoin thus capital would still be motivated by larger gains.

However with options, then one can amplify their gains on Bitcoin.

Many factors to consider.

I am coming at this from the perspective of being old and more concerned about the future of humanity than just making a buck. If I can make money while doing something to help humanity, then I am much more motivated. I am very concerned that Bitcoin is designed to be cartelized.

I am bit frustrated with people here that they only care about making a buck and ignore the outcome Bitcoin presents. Yet I must not blame them, because they don't really have an alternative.

[bitrider]

I revised my bitcoin logistic adoption price analysis charts to combine four possible scenarios on one chart ..

Exponential growth (linear on a log axis as you've drawn) is inherently unstable, as no exponential growth goes on forever.

First, I do not appreciate your hijack of this important thread.

+1 Agreed.  Bring it to the appropriate thread. You (Anony) obviously have important thinking to share. I've read some of your writing, and you do raise many points worth exploring.

The misapplication of the logistic function is precisely on topic to this thread.

Thus you are agreeing that you also could not comprehend.

However, I'm not sure what you are trying to accomplish in general. You come across as confused, desperate for attention, paranoid and perhaps mentally unstable - and you are pissing people off left and right.
Is that what you are going for? I doubt it.

Well it is par for the course, when you can't comprehend it will appear to be noise, yet if you comprehend then you realize I am none of those things.

If I am not regularly pissing stupid people off, then I am doing something wrong.

Ego is for little people

IMHO... (you did not ask, but here goes)

If you are trying to influence, you have a lot learn.

I've already influenced the world several times. I created the first full-feature WYSIWYG commercial word processor in 1986. So you can thank me (and some others) for all the nice formatting features you have in forums, HTML, word processors, etc.

I created the worlds first million user social network back in 1999 - 2001, so you can thank me for friendster, myspace, and facebook, since they all copied me.

And I wasn't trying to have influence on you here. You are irrelevant. I posted to rpietila in this thread (then a bunch of you others made stupid replies), and I got the reaction I was hoping for here from rpietila:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=331325.msg3572748#msg3572748

So for me, it was a total success.

When I do influence you, you won't even know it is me. And you will willingly give me all your money without knowing it. Or if you suspect, then you will resist, so you will be late and lose. Either way, I win.

just makes you more alienated than before.

Nice fantasy you have. I am just playing with your ignorance, like a cat toys with a piece of yarn. It is recreation as what else am I supposed to do with stupid people other than ignore them?

Got it. 

[AnonyMint]

SlipperySlope I am sending you a private msg to ask some assistance on a model for coin supply.

[sundownz]

Interesting reading !

[stripykitteh]

Thus I expect deep shorting markets to come as the market cap becomes significant.

The large holders know they can't sell as a way out, they must short as the way out.

Deep shorting markets might also discourage some capital from buying altcoin competitor as a hedge, although I think if any altcoin succeeds it must appreciate faster than Bitcoin thus capital would still be motivated by larger gains.

However with options, then one can amplify their gains on Bitcoin.

Many factors to consider.

That's perceptive. The chosen few sitting on tens of thousands of coins have an interesting problem to solve, if they choose to try to solve it.

[RAJSALLIN]

Been following this thread and several others that AnonyMint has been active in. Find his posts very facinating and refreshing. Have a few thoughts though. First a short summary of AnonyMints thoughts..

- He thinks Bitcoin is created by the elite because:
     - Mining converges towards a centralized system.
     - Bitcoin isn't anonymous in the sense that IP numbers can be tracked by agencies such as the NSA.
     - The elite controll the media and media has been very active in reporting on Bitcoin.

- He thinks bitcoin holders will be taxed to death and hunted down by the 98% that don't own coins.

- Based on Armstrong Econic Confidence Model and the fact that almost all coins will be mined 2033, he thinks around this time the elite will roll out their new fiat based system and crash bitcoins.

- He thinks Bitcoins will go to several trillion dollar valuations before the above.

- Despite having a potential of a thousand bagger he doesn't own any Bitcoins because of the point above where bitcoin holders will be hunted down.

- He sees no way out of this except engineering a new coin which is more anonymous and therefore harder for the elite to track. This and only this has the potential of fighting off the evil elites plan.

- He believes the elite are behind the Georgia Guidestones in which one of their "commandments" is that the earths population should not surpass 500M


First I'd like to thank AnonyMint for producing so many exciting posts. I spent 2h of my life just reading through all these threads. Second I'd like to say that AnonyMint seems like someone that should get out, breath some fresh air, walk in the woods and relax. Seems like a very anxious person who may or may not be a bit over paranoid. Wouldn't be surprised if he lives in a Faraday cage and doesn't own a cell phone.

All honesty though, like I said it's an interesting read. Concerning that Bitcoin owners will be taxed and hunted. I have this to say. If Bitcoin does go to several trillion dollar valuations I'm more than fine paying taxes on my gains. Even if taxes will be insane like 70%. Call me a socialist if you like but I don't see this as a huge problem. I'm also not concerned about the masses hunting me down. Wealthy people have been around throughout history. As long as one isn't flamboint and respects their neighbour no matter how much or little they own this is not a huge concern. Why AnonyMint won't purchase Bitcoins is beyond me. Sure he can try and fight the elite he thinks exists but in all honesty if all he says is true it's probably better to just play by their rules instead of fighting them. I'd put my money on the elites winning no matter what if they are as powerful as AnonyMint is hinting at.

All this said though i'll be one of the first people to purchase some of his anonymous altcoins if he is successfull in creating them. Well done in promoting your new coins. Couldn't have done a better job imo.

[RAJSALLIN]

Well, just saw this http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2013/11/13/sanitizing-bitcoin-coin-validation/

Seems like the elite forces are already scrambling to identify Bitcoin users. We are all doomed.

[BitchicksHusband]

Do you remember the verse in the Bible, they will toss their gold and silver into the streets?

For me at this time, it is much more important to have my freedom than to have wealth that makes me a marked man by society.

With my freedom, I can do amazing new technology. I need almost no wealth, just a computer, the internet, and my brain.

I do remember the verse, but it's referring to heaven and earth ain't it.

I agree somewhat.  I don't really care about wealth except the mortgage, power, internet and grocery stores keep asking for it.  So, I do need wealth for freedom.  But I don't really care whether I have 10 million or 100 million as long as I can have the freedom to work on the things I want to and keep the above at bay.

Wealth is not what you pay bills with, that is salary or income. If you are wealthy, personal expenses are irrelevant.

To become and remain wealthy, what you are producing for society has to be outsized the average in value.

Huh?  

Wealthy spend only a fraction of their net worth on personal expenses, unlike non-wealthy who spend a significant percent.

If you are concerned about personal expenses, you are not in proximity of being wealthy. You will understand this if you are one day wealthy. Rpietila now understands this well.

There are some former wealthy who thought being wealthy meant increasing expenses proportionally, e.g. most NBA stars, etc..

Sounds like we agree.

[BitchicksHusband]

Any one with large size in Bitcoin has to make sure they sell well before the peak. The larger the holding, the earlier they must start selling. Or they use their coins as margin in a deep shorting market, so they retain their coin value by increasing the number of coins they own upon the crash.

Thus I expect deep shorting markets to come as the market cap becomes significant.

The large holders know they can't sell as a way out, they must short as the way out.

Deep shorting markets might also discourage some capital from buying altcoin competitor as a hedge, although I think if any altcoin succeeds it must appreciate faster than Bitcoin thus capital would still be motivated by larger gains.

However with options, then one can amplify their gains on Bitcoin.

Many factors to consider.

I am coming at this from the perspective of being old and more concerned about the future of humanity than just making a buck. If I can make money while doing something to help humanity, then I am much more motivated. I am very concerned that Bitcoin is designed to be cartelized.

I am bit frustrated with people here that they only care about making a buck and ignore the outcome Bitcoin presents. Yet I must not blame them, because they don't really have an alternative.

That is why rpietila response to me was "so make a solution", i.e. shut up and code.

So I am going to quit this discussion.

Good luck to all of you.

And as a fellow coder I can assure you of this:  your communication skills are too poor for your code to make a difference.  The best code doesn't win.  The pretty good code with good speech around it wins.  But good luck anyway.

[BitchicksHusband]

Well, just saw this http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2013/11/13/sanitizing-bitcoin-coin-validation/

Seems like the elite forces are already scrambling to identify Bitcoin users. We are all doomed.

These idiots are going to push all commerce to BRIC(S) nations and further bankrupt the US.

[AnonyMint]

RAJSALLIN, you did an excellent summary of my views. Also there is the new selfish mining attack, which when combined with the withholding attack that miners can do on pools, probably (allowing the very small chance for myself to be wrong on the technical analysis) makes it impossible to stop a determined adversary from destroying the honest pools. I have detailed this in comments in debate with cunicula over at that hackingdistributed site. And I have proposed fixes for all these things, including your summary.

I sent the following message to SlipperySlope in private email when he declined to assist me on a mathematical model because he "puts his full faith in Bitcoin". I did get to see his photo so I have an estimate of his age now:

I hope you realize that Bitcoin stops providing sufficient funding to miners from coin rewards by 2033 (<1%) or 2040 (<0.2%) and that funding is expected to come from tx fees. However, due to the very easy transactions withholding attack, a cartel such as Amazon.com could offer the wonderful deal of 0% tx fees to people who send their transactions to Amazon's servers. Amazon could then refuse to send these to other miners and process them all on Amazon's servers when Amazon's server win the block solution. In this way and by also combining the recent selfish mining attack in clever ways as I have outlined, Amazon (or other cartel) will take over all mining. At that point, they can change the protocol if for example the government requires them to do so by law, converting it to a fiat.

There is absolutely nothing you et al will be able to do to stop it at that point, because Bitcoin will already be too popular.

You don't care that you are about to turn the world into the 666 outcome?

And you refuse to support an altcoin that could fix this?

You must be one of those selfish boomers who always think of themselves and never for the future of mankind.

I am X-gen. Any other X-gens here? It is up to us to save the world, the boomers don't have a clue, they caused this sovereign debt crisis. I don't mean that as a personal insult against any one, it is just a fact of the perspective that generation experienced given the environment they were nurtured up in (the golden age of the 1950s probably the richest period in modern western civilization, especially in the USA). As smart as rpietila is, our differences apparently stem from him being European (socialist mindset was ingrained there earlier) and myself being American, or perhaps generational (I forget his age...seems I remember he is younger than me even though I have all my hair, hehehe ).

The notion that the core devs and/or the masses could recognize this problem and provide a fix at an opportune moment is in my opinion impossible. No one wants to change anything major in Bitcoin because it risks upsetting the apple cart, causing a fork, and otherwise interrupting the meteoric rise in the price. Everyone is focused on only one major goal, which is all about price and maintaining the uber critical consensus.

This was a very clever Trojan planted by the elite, because it has an economic reward which is irresistible. Only a very few people have the discipline to see past their own greed to the final outcome of this.

If I am wrong, then the core devs step up to the plate and fix this immediately. But can you get the Bitcoin community to accept even a small perpetual debasement? No. Too many are irrational, selfish goldbugs. I've already explained why in the threads RAJSALLIN has apparently read.

So I am saying I would love for core Bitcoin devs to fix the problem that I see, yet I don't think they will nor can.

RAJSALLIN, I hope you are reporting every Bitcoin spend as a capital gain (or are very confident in your ability to use a VPN with Tor which even I am not). Because my expectation is if you are a USA citizens (we must pay capital gains, apparently Europeans not) is the bankrupt socialism will ex post facto send you a bill for unpaid taxes, penalties, and interest. It is the penalties and interest that will take 300% of your net worth, thus causing you to go to prison because you are unable to pay the IRS even if you wanted to. Feinstein has already proposed legislation (in recent highway appropriations bill, may have passed already) that if you owe the IRS $50,000, they cancel your passport. As for Europeans, they think they are safe because (unlike us screwed up the ass Americans) they pay no income taxes if they reside outside the EU, except for perhaps a small net worth tax in some countries, and I believe they are not liable for the VAT if they transact outside the EU. A little bird in my intuition tells me that there is no way the Europeans are going to escape while the Americans are not. Europe is more bankrupt than the USA is. I don't know how they will do it, but EU is rapidly being federalized and soon Finland (rpietila's nationality) won't be setting the laws and instead the EU will be. France is already pressuring the EU to adopt all sorts of crazy taxing measures, even suggesting to tax the internet traffic coming in and out of the EU. And the implosion hasn't even occurred yet. We will see the true craziness once the masses are really suffering as the Greeks are now. If Finland was sovereign, I would say rpietila has nothing to worry about, but alas I think it is too late for Finland to keep its sovereignty. If I were rpietila, I would consider buying a second citizenship but then he has to be careful that such a backend country doesn't also try to tax him as the world goes into the shitter after 2016.

As for paranoia, the boomers think I am insane. Their whole life government and society has been good to them. They've always been on top. Why should they change now. They just can't fathom such a global collapse and total shift from big government to minanarchy. It isn't what I think or want which matters, it is the math of the debt. Government is peaking now, and the world will collapse into minimal government. This is undeniable if you study the debt-to-GDP levels, the "$quadrillion" of credit-swap derivatives, and the world history of how just structures resolve. My 67 year old mother told me it makes her heart race and blood pressure go up, so "please just don't tell me".

Am I paranoid about the tax outcome? I mean the typical thought that goes into the mind of people who think I am paranoid or insane is "if the governments do that, we are all doomed, thus they won't". Humans are herding creatures. They feel safer in numbers. Normally the lions only pick off the weak stragglers on the edge of the herd. But the killing fields of modern history come from technology. Government exists because it has a monopoly on force (this is the academic definition). Government now has the technology to see everything you do. And they are. And they have the technology to tax everything you do. And thus they will, when the society is bankrupt and they have no other place to seek revenue as the global economy collapses and there is no income. How can they tax income if there is not sufficient income in a global collapse? How can they tax VAT if there isn't sufficient commerce in a global economic collapse? Thus they will tax net worth. And they will accuse you of intentionally speculating and destroying the global economy.

Remember every crisis has to be blamed on some group that the government wishes to attack. Hitler blamed the weak for bankrupting the universal health care system, and so the purges began, then this morphed into the "jews" who were accused of perpetuating the hardship from the war reparations. Who will the G20 blame for this crisis? Haven't you heard the rumblings of socialism over there in Europe? They are already talking about banning speculation. Don't you see the recent G20 meetings have made resolutions about going after tax havens.

Ignore politics without anonymity at your own peril.

[AnonyMint]

And as a fellow coder I can assure you of this:  your communication skills are too poor for your code to make a difference.  The best code doesn't win.  The pretty good code with good speech around it wins.  But good luck anyway.

Just take one look at my marketing accomplishment with WordUp or CoolPage.com (million users in 2 years) and obviously I know how to alter my communication.

I was expressing frustration with the myopia here in these threads. And actually I performed a marketing coup already, because I got your attention.

The following are from the 1980s! Mostly all done by myself (some portions done by Mike Fulton) I wrote all the ad copy below. My conceptual design. I worked with the graphic artist. I did the layout. I wrote the program. I negotiated the contracts for worldwide distributors. I even took some of the tech support calls on the phone. I printed the labels that on the 3.5" floppy disks and managed the 3 guys in the shipping department of my small company.

[SlipperySlope]

Am I advertising a potential altcoin which I haven't even started coding? Yes I guess I am. But it was more about wanting to do a market survey and see where the thinking is. And what I concluded is that there are sufficient people interested to get such an altcoin started, then that momentum will drive the resistors (e.g. SlipperySlope) in later.

. . .

In conclusion, apologies for cluttering this thread and rambling on. I should now undertake the discipline to shut up, and code if I want to. Talking won't change anything. My marketing survey is complete.

You should be able to find all the talent and collaborators you need on the Alternate cryptocurrencies section of the forum. Metaphorically, you are pushing a boulder uphill here whereas over there your boulder rolls itself downhill. Best wishes.

[rpietila]

Well, just saw this http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2013/11/13/sanitizing-bitcoin-coin-validation/

Seems like the elite forces are already scrambling to identify Bitcoin users. We are all doomed.

"Everything that can be done, will be done" -sirius.

Since bitcoin is designed to be non-anonymous, there will be such a database. Sirius has been working on an even greater database of the totality of everything you have publicly done. He realizes it can be used for nefarious purposes, but says that since the oppressors have access to the data anyway, the good guys should have it also.

[AnonyMint]

Well, just saw this http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2013/11/13/sanitizing-bitcoin-coin-validation/

Seems like the elite forces are already scrambling to identify Bitcoin users. We are all doomed.

"Everything that can be done, will be done" -sirius.

Since bitcoin is designed to be non-anonymous, there will be such a database. Sirius has been working on an even greater database of the totality of everything you have publicly done. He realizes it can be used for nefarious purposes, but says that since the oppressors have access to the data anyway, the good guys should have it also.

Your anonymity declines over time, as if you've used a coin mixer and/or proxy, then your anonymity is (probabilistically) inversely proportional to the proportion of other Bitcoiners who have revealed their identity somehow.

So it can only get worse.

Also the NSA knows identities which those research analysts don't. So the good guys don't know as much as the NSA knows. Also we don't even know if NSA has cracked elliptic curve cryptography. The NSA had cracked most in the 1980s with differential analysis, and the public didn't know it.

Also there are so many potential pitfalls when using Tor, VPN, and/or coin mixer. There are so many complexities in the software stack and operational flow chart, thus too many opportunities for failure or attack.

Just assume you are not anonymous. That is safest.

Did you really think you could get rich simply for buying an asset that destroys the socialism? Only if the paradigm shift creates more prosperity for the masses will you be allowed to keep your gains. Bitcoin is not designed to do this. It is designed to give 1/2 of the coins to early adopters in the first 4 years (before the first halving of the coin reward).

Imagine the headlines. Bitcoin transferred half of the world's wealth to those who purchased or mined in the first 4 years. This is static and can never be undone, unless those wealthy spend their Bitcoins.

But wealthy don't spend. They invest only to increase their hoard, not disperse it.

This is absolutely a Trojan designed to sucker all you naive selfish people into mixing your capital with drug dealers, human traffickers, pedophiles, etc and to track you and label you as destroyers of the global economy.

This is so they can blame the socialism debt bubble on you.

Rothschild and Soros are some clever fucks. And you eat it right from their hand.

[RAJSALLIN]

Anonymint, calm down. You may be right but you are to extreme. yes we will be taxed but no way are we going to be crucified for this. But again, start making that code for your coins instead of scaring us more. When you are done I want first dibs. Ehhhumm, I mean I don't want any (in case big brother is listening).

Also, why not become the Robin Hood of bitcoin. They won't have to hunt me down. My stash will willingly be distributed to the people who need them the most. True socialism here we come.

Edit: what if you are wrong AnonyMint? What if bitcoin isn't constructed by the elite? Or what if it is but they aren't planning to tax the holders to death? Or what if their plan fails? Are you willing to take the risk of not investing in an asset that has a huge potential because of your fear standing in the way?

[BitchicksHusband]

Anyway, enough paranoia derailing a really cool thread.

I was curious the difference between SlipperySlope's charts which show around $6000 at the end of 2015 and this chart posted on another thread:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/fy8wpDSZ/

which shows around $2500 instead.  Both are compelling, but show a wide gap.  Any takers as to why the difference?

Personally, I tend to discount the $2500 since in 12 months we should be a little past $4000, so $6000 sounds more accurate given the history of bitcoin, and if anything we're at the part of the Sigmoid where it should speed up a little.

Still, it's hard to argue with this chart.  So what's wrong with it that I am missing?

[bitrider]

In conclusion, apologies for cluttering this thread and rambling on. I should now undertake the discipline to shut up, and code if I want to. Talking won't change anything. My marketing survey is complete.

You should be able to find all the talent and collaborators you need on the Alternate cryptocurrencies section of the forum. Metaphorically, you are pushing a boulder uphill here whereas over there your boulder rolls itself downhill. Best wishes.

That was definitely exciting and scary & I will certainly be following the development of the perfect dark coin - to rule all coins. Seriously.

Now back to our regularly scheduled fantasy programing.