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Author Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend  (Read 116261 times)
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BitDreams
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December 19, 2013, 11:40:54 PM
 #341

from the google trends chart posted above we can have an estimate of the media coverage trend. It seems to confirm a 3X coverage frome peak to peak, according  with a constant slope model.

Looking at the english version of Google trends:

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin&cmpt=q



I see 3 spikes of interest, June 2011, April 2013, and Oct 2013. Those appear to coincide with my interpretation, i.e. the peak of the first phase June 2011, the launch from the bottom of the correction April 2013, and now the rocket launch from breakout over the $30 level from the first phase correction.

I am expecting we head to $10,000 over the next 6 months. I think the shorts are wrong and they will be forced to cover in January.

Not only: the technical target of the double top is exactly 440, and we have an interesting level at 460. These signals all confirm rpietila's view.

Technical analysis is correct 50% of the time, thus it is meaningless.

We are experiencing  a very bad press, i think smart money is loading to short.

Sell the good news, buy the good rumor. Buy the "bad news" (which was actually good news), sell the bad rumor.

P.S. http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/decuple in italian "decuplicare" is very common, it seems i english is not the same. regards.


Ah my high school Latin training is fading now. I figured it must be "deca" something.

I plan on borrowing your parallel lines at some point. I'm looking for a rhythm in peaks - aggressive upward (and downward) price moves. Feel more comfortable with more than 2 rally inputs though but here's an idea of what I'm talking about using S&P500 eMini futures. I'm an amature chart technician but I'd place the performance of this fractal up against any chartist over the past 2 years. Notice how whenever price approaches the 'curves' off of this Andrews Pitchfork price seems almost magnetized to the trend line. Of course by the time patterns are recognized price of Bitcoin could reach spectacular targets.

Link to Off Topic SP500 futures chart demonstrating almost mechanical nature of price following a fractal:
http://ponziunit.blogspot.com/2013/11/looks-like-dippy-time-do-or-dont-cycle.html

Note about my blog handle, it was adopted in 2008 in response to US financial crisis - that's ongoing to this day.
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December 20, 2013, 12:04:09 PM
 #342

We know Mt Gox hit 1 million users in the last week or so. 

Can we chart estimated users against price?
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December 20, 2013, 03:07:08 PM
 #343

We know Mt Gox hit 1 million users in the last week or so.  

Can we chart estimated users against price?

Interesting idea. It was actually one of the reasons why I decided that the price was too high - 14B market cap as opposed to 1.2 million users gives $12k per user. Little bit on the dearish side for now.

If someone would take the time to estimate the number of bitcoin users back in time, for example monthly. I am not the right person to do this, since I was not active in the community before late 2012.

"A Twitter User Is Worth $110; Facebook's $98; LinkedIn's $93" [1]

Edit:

More info. Amazon users worth $1110, also different numbers for LinkedIn and Facebook [2]

[1] http://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeanders/2013/11/07/a-twitter-user-is-worth-110-facebooks-98-linkedins-93/
[2] http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2012/08/27/how-much-is-a-user-worth.aspx

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December 20, 2013, 03:28:45 PM
 #344

More info. Amazon users worth $1110, also different numbers for LinkedIn and Facebook [2]

I remember in 2000 a Sonera (mobile operator) user was worth $20k.

No more Wink
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December 20, 2013, 09:33:30 PM
 #345

In my understanding, number of bitcoin users now is only 350,000, less than a million at least.

When it reaches 100 million, we are still in early adopter phase in global scale.

It is very important to realize that all growth has its limits, and the limit for bitcoin growth is that it replaces all other liquid wealth. That would lead the purchasing power to be in several million$ range. A more conservative scenario, that of replacing gold, would put the price at $300k/BTC.

It's still at least a 1500-bagger Wink


Good brainwash - $300k is now "conservative" as Chamath estimated $0.5-$1M...  Grin

Hehe, and people on reddit call each other insane for predicting $1000 by 2014. lol. Some clearly haven't grasped the enormity of what is hitting them yet.


yeah the question is are the "powers that be" finance/banks and such gonna jump on this train....or try to wreck the train...there will be some major backlash ..if history is any indication massive movements of wealth to the masses has been discouraged..usually by force regulatory and or physical....I myself and betting on 'greed' having them jump the train...ie at least stick a toe in the water with some fiat ..if that works out then the big splash from those with big money...but then again we humans are the "frenengi of primates' so something really stupid will probably happen don't ya know in the above regard...to try to derail bitcoin

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AnonyMint
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December 20, 2013, 09:36:43 PM
 #346

We know Mt Gox hit 1 million users in the last week or so.  

Can we chart estimated users against price?

Interesting idea. It was actually one of the reasons why I decided that the price was too high - 14B market cap as opposed to 1.2 million users gives $12k per user. Little bit on the dearish side for now.

This is rational, if we are not in a bubble, which is your point. But when the masses move in earnest, the bubble can much more overvalued.

As I stated upthread, it seemed a bit early for the stage where the masses rush in and also the institutional investors are coming in now, so the price had to come down first.

The China news pump and dump was manipulated that is clear.

P.S. So you tell me how much a CPU-only altcoin is worth if it can bring in 10 to 100 million users in a year? Let's not be too boastful shall we, because that comes right before the fall.

Edit: The potential and name recognition is already huge:

http://venturebeat.com/2013/12/19/this-is-what-people-in-9-emerging-markets-think-about-bitcoin-survey/

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December 20, 2013, 09:39:20 PM
 #347

The China news pump and dump was manipulated that is clear.

100% Agree.
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December 21, 2013, 09:08:23 AM
 #348

I have been fervently upgrading my methodology regarding this exponential trendline issue. Currently the model which I personally use contains the following data:

- Before Mt.Gox, fixed 0.005
- After Mt.Gox until 31.12.2012, Mt.Gox daily volume weighted average
- 1.1.2013 and later, VWA of Mt.Gox, Bitstamp and BTC China daily VWA's.

The trendline is recalculated monthly back in time (to reflect the trendline available in any point of time in history) and will be recalculated biweekly in the future. The model did not seem to be least squares but rather simple fit (equal area above and below trendline). The slope of the trend is established very well during the last year - the recalculations of 2013 have seen the slope fluctuating in the band of only 2.9%, and the price has moved from below to above, to below, to above, and again down towards the trendline. Others use Mt.Gox data and ignore the history before 17.7.2010. This results in a trend which is 15% less steep in logarithmic scale, and shows the current price ($600) as even more overvalued than my model.

This model has given insight on the buyback level after the crash has played itself out. As such, it would be foolhardy to assume that the current crash would play itself out exactly as the April one did. But the trendline analysis seems to confirm the essential similarities to such a degree that we can make an informed guess on how low to go and when. It seems inevitable that we will touch the trendline soon on a daily basis (in the recent dip it was only crossed in BTC China and Bitstamp, and not on a daily VWA). After touching it, we will go below it. Last summer we spent 158 days at an average of -0.222 log units (-40%) below the trendline. This period started 55 days after the top.

Today the trendline is at $446 and growth is $3.15 daily. There are many ways to try to estimate how quickly we will go to -40% below trendline. One (obviously arbitrary) method is to take the final capitulation of the last bubble, and compare its duration from the top and price level relative to trendline. That would suggest a $339 capitulation in 26.2.2014.

The last bubble saw 3 distinct buying opportunities, 2 of which happened relatively quickly after the top as dips/flashcrashes, and the 3rd one was the final capitulation much after that lasted for days. Now we have only seen one flashcrash that has taken us to long-term buy levels, so at least one more is expected. The reason for the expectation is not that there is some cosmic magic that the two bubbles should play out similarly (afaik there is not) but that the trendline, which has taken into account the exchange rate over the course of Bitcoin's history (and thus is the sum of every factor ever that has, could have or will have affected the price) suggests we are overvalued, and the downtrend will quite likely end only when this overvaluation is purged. This is deeply rooted in experience from other markets over centuries. Don't jump under the train that's falling from the sky.

If this thread is to help us in speculation, the advice it would give is as follows:
- Do not buy back yet in $500, for that would be catching the falling knife. Even if it bounces back from above $500, it will come down again. Last summer the final one was weeks after the interest had started to wane. When my usual critics don't care to argue any more but have thrown in the towel and don't care anymore, then we will have cheap coins. It is more likely than not that $3XX will come.



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December 21, 2013, 01:09:49 PM
 #349

So a bottom perhaps somewhat above the April ATH?  Which also is likely a strong psychological price point as well.  I guess the big question is what happens if it falls below that?

I can see that happening only temporarily, as a result of a witchhunt on exchanges or something. If moving fiat around was not cumbersome, bitcoin would be much higher and especially volatility in the dips would be milder.

Don't really think it would matter anything. My buys don't extend that low, because I don't regard it as probable enough to be willing to hold fiat for that opportunity. But I would maybe sell $200k worth of gold and silver, if that would net me 1,000 bitcoins in the event of a prolonged fall to that price.

266 is not even that much undervalued really. We were more undervalued in the end of 2012 Smiley
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December 21, 2013, 02:18:17 PM
 #350


266 is not even that much undervalued really. We were more undervalued in the end of 2012 Smiley

You have a weird look at undervalued. If we follow the trendline in price even prices WAY above the trendline are undervalued prices (by lot) because there isn't an asset in the world that brings matches the slope of growth of the trendline. You need enormous discount rates for Bitcoin to be overvalued at ~1k even (assuming the trendline is a given).

I think with undervalued you mean below the trendline. That's not the definition most of the world would use Smiley

With or without the trend, Bitcoin was more undervalued in 2012 than now  Grin

I totally agree with that statement. I think it's still MASSIVELY undervalued today however. Best risk-adjusted return on the planet for investing in today.

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December 21, 2013, 02:50:06 PM
 #351

The news about overstock.com accepting BTC in Q2, 2104 really wowed my non-crypto friends. I think more and more regular people are waking up to the fact that crypto is becoming normal in some form ultimately. Bitcoin may lose out to another crypto, but one will win for sure.

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December 21, 2013, 03:00:34 PM
 #352

The news about overstock.com accepting BTC in Q2, 2104 really wowed my non-crypto friends. I think more and more regular people are waking up to the fact that crypto is becoming normal in some form ultimately. Bitcoin may lose out to another crypto, but one will win for sure.

Yes, if it doesn't I must be complete and totally wrong. I can't see how crypto can NOT play a major role in the coming decades at least.

But then again, it's very unlikely for another crypto to overtake Bitcoin as Bitcoin can incorporate almost any new thing altcoins come up with. Unless something truly revolutionary (such as Bitcoin itself) comes along. But Bitcoin took 3000 years of civilization (and 86 years since the transistor and 41 years since the Arpanet) to be invented. So I'm guessing that's not very likely, and if it is, not many assets are going to be safe from it anyway as nothing is truly safe from Bitcoin today (maybe non-financial stocks are kind of isolated).

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December 21, 2013, 05:59:40 PM
 #353

The news about overstock.com accepting BTC in Q2, 2104 really wowed my non-crypto friends.

That really wowed me as well. I mean waiting til almost all of the coins are mined before accepting them.  That is a shrewd move, I hope it pays off for overstock.   Wink  Tongue

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December 22, 2013, 10:04:36 AM
 #354


266 is not even that much undervalued really. We were more undervalued in the end of 2012 Smiley

You have a weird look at undervalued. If we follow the trendline in price even prices WAY above the trendline are undervalued prices (by lot) because there isn't an asset in the world that brings matches the slope of growth of the trendline. You need enormous discount rates for Bitcoin to be overvalued at ~1k even (assuming the trendline is a given).

I think with undervalued you mean below the trendline. That's not the definition most of the world would use Smiley

With or without the trend, Bitcoin was more undervalued in 2012 than now  Grin

I totally agree with that statement. I think it's still MASSIVELY undervalued today however. Best risk-adjusted return on the planet for investing in today.

And what would be a "fair value" (as analyst tend to call it) for 1 Bitcoin? $100k? $300K?

BOA says $1300, but that looks as a number pulled from their asses.

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December 22, 2013, 10:13:23 AM
 #355

Maybe more.
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December 22, 2013, 05:46:45 PM
 #356

In my understanding, number of bitcoin users now is only 350,000, less than a million at least.

When it reaches 100 million, we are still in early adopter phase in global scale.

It is very important to realize that all growth has its limits, and the limit for bitcoin growth is that it replaces all other liquid wealth. That would lead the purchasing power to be in several million$ range. A more conservative scenario, that of replacing gold, would put the price at $300k/BTC.

The problem with your estimate is, is that you forget Bitcoin isn't the best coin.

The other altcoins like Feathercoin and Peercoin use less energy/need less miners/have 30times faster transaction times/have more coins/better in every category. Might take another year or two, but the coins with the most benefits will be the higher echelon coins, specifically not Bitcoin(unless someone completely changes everything about it to make it better in every way shape and form).

Bitcoin is only extremely more popular for it's capitalization on early mover and early promoter in the beginning. Other coins will easily be worth more.



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December 22, 2013, 05:57:47 PM
 #357

The problem with your estimate is, is that you forget Bitcoin isn't the best coin.

The other altcoins like Feathercoin and Peercoin use less energy/need less miners/have 30times faster transaction times/have more coins/better in every category. Might take another year or two, but the coins with the most benefits will be the higher echelon coins, specifically not Bitcoin(unless someone completely changes everything about it to make it better in every way shape and form).

Bitcoin is only extremely more popular for it's capitalization on early mover and early promoter in the beginning. Other coins will easily be worth more.

Bitcoin is the best coin in the eyes of rich people like me. The energy and miners need be there (the coin economics do not work without it), the confirmations are not reliable if they are much faster than Bitcoin's. "Have more coins" is a joke.

It is possible that there are fringe uses for other coins in the future, but to me it looks unrealistic that all the other coins combined would reach even 25% of Bitcoin's market cap. Main reason why anyone would think otherwise is that they don't have as many bitcoins as they would like to have, and want to amend that the easy way.
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December 23, 2013, 06:26:58 PM
 #358

The energy and miners need be there (the coin economics do not work without it),

Hey RP, may be a little off topic, but can you point me to a thread that explains this more thoroughly? I think I understand why the miners need to be there - what about the energy?
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December 23, 2013, 08:19:39 PM
 #359

The energy and miners need be there (the coin economics do not work without it),

Hey RP, may be a little off topic, but can you point me to a thread that explains this more thoroughly? I think I understand why the miners need to be there - what about the energy?

FYI: http://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

The basics are all on the original whitepaper.

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December 24, 2013, 12:00:16 PM
 #360

Energy costs money, thus adding value to the coins.
If it costs to make it is more valuable than if it is free.

That's untrue. Bitcoin would work even if no energy was consumed by mining. Look up Proof of Stake, for example.

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