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Author Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend  (Read 117348 times)
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minimalB
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April 01, 2014, 09:48:55 AM
 #501

Here is updated tonico's chart made with R:

Code:
http://i.imgur.com/ycT9ulP.png


And updated R source:
http://pastebin.com/1wFgtA79
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May 07, 2014, 06:47:09 PM
 #502

Waiting for update Smiley

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Valerian77
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May 09, 2014, 12:14:11 AM
 #503


Bitmessage: BM-2cTHvwzzG3cDJxmM7YrYXSaBex4oRobJxu
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May 09, 2014, 01:40:35 AM
 #504




That is beautiful  Cool

Look how the april/nov 2013 peaks reflect the first two blips on the chart Grin
Hodl on for the ride to the 2011 peak at about $300000  Cheesy
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May 09, 2014, 05:56:15 PM
 #505

I think it's more likely to peak 6~8k and possibly 10k+ but 300k seems a little early.

Not entirely impossible, but still not very likely
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May 10, 2014, 10:01:53 AM
 #506

it's so incredible that the price is rocketing.

Get Daily Free SignatureCoins. Sxj3GkVWyovR7M2iMAqRyG5x1c5MQM2n7H
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May 18, 2014, 07:11:02 PM
 #507


Ha, love it!  But any particular reason why it necessarily HAS TO level-off at "only" $1 million?  Grin

Don't get me wrong, I love this chart and really (really really) hope it's true... I'm personally tryin' really hard to get ahold of as much BTC as I can, right now at these recent "low prices" (I'm still spending some, but just tryin' really hard to make a little stash too, LOL)...

But just being Devil's Advocate here, for the sake of argument: what would be some of the major reasons why you guys might consider that this chart and/or the long-trend might NOT actually hold true??

Again, not tryin' to throw any cold water on the optimism here, but y'know... after the last few months of "crashing" prices, it might be prudent to keep all possibilities (both positive and negative) in clear view of the road ahead.

 Cool


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May 18, 2014, 07:37:26 PM
 #508

@KeyJockey:

Read the topic from SlipperySlope as well https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0

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May 19, 2014, 12:42:38 AM
 #509

Read the topic from SlipperySlope as well https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0

Great thread, thanks.  Just skimmed it so far but already I see the value there (and, yeah, of course it'll level off at $1M, duh!  LOL.  Nothing increases exponentially forever, but still maybe it's gonna actually level off at "only" something like $800K or $1.2M)  Grin

Anyway, yeah, I'm gonna def take the time & really read carefully thru all of that thread too, plus all the links.  Great stuff.

Thanks again.

 Cool


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May 30, 2014, 07:44:47 PM
 #510

Here is updated tonico's chart made with R:
Code:
http://i.imgur.com/ycT9ulP.png
Can we get an update?

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June 01, 2014, 07:45:59 PM
 #511

Can we get an update?

SlipperySlope's (Stephen Reed) original spreadsheet model is available on Google Docs here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1

{Edit} Oops, sorry... forgot this is RPietila's thread, not the SS thread  Tongue


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June 02, 2014, 12:57:56 AM
 #512

SlipperySlope's (Stephen Reed) original spreadsheet model is available on Google Docs here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=1
Wow, I don't understand how it works. Thank you anyway.

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June 02, 2014, 03:10:09 AM
 #513

Here's the right thread for all you need to know about Stephen's (Slippery's) logistic model.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=366214.0

Amazing work. And great complement to this thread/model.
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June 02, 2014, 05:06:13 AM
 #514

Here is updated tonico's chart made with R:
Code:
http://i.imgur.com/ycT9ulP.png
Can we get an update?

Official prices for April and May updated. You can see that May average was higher than that of April, so the downtrend is over from this perspective also!

The trend is rising so fast that we are still -0.339 below the trend, with the record being set at -0.446 in 2014-5-19.
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June 02, 2014, 06:26:43 AM
 #515

Update:
http://i.imgur.com/zQTRX1i.png
http://pastebin.com/qpsd3pwM



Pic in the first post is quite outdated. It would be nice if rpietila replaced it with new one.
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June 02, 2014, 07:20:21 AM
 #516

Extrapolation doesn't work well on trading.

A quick way to poor house if anyone using this method to trade.
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June 02, 2014, 07:24:56 AM
 #517

Extrapolation doesn't work well on trading.

A quick way to poor house if anyone using this method to trade.

LOL, I must be doing really bad then, having followed the method methodically in the last bubble..

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June 02, 2014, 01:50:59 PM
 #518

Extrapolation doesn't work well on trading.
A quick way to poor house if anyone using this method to trade.
Well I dunno about YOU (or anyone else here, either... people gotta make their own financial and investment decisions for themselves, of course, and taking ANY "internet advice" of any ONE person's opinion too seriously is never a good idea) but I'm personally not looking at this as "trading" but rather ONLY as possible long-term investment value in a brand-new, nascent technology or industry category.

Day to day?  It's clear that BTC prices (value?) can be all over the map.  Up down up down anything can happen wheee, just like a roller coaster amusement park ride, LOL. 

I've personally only ever paid in the $800-$400 range for each of the bitcoins that I've ever bought (starting around the time it hit $1000+ when I finally woke the hell up and started paying attention to it, LOL).  So that means technically I'm still in the hole, looking at a "losing investment" to date, even though dollar-cost averaging has helped a bit (my average price paid per BTC has gone from $711 when I started to now about $625).

Do I wish I was smart enough to recognize what's going on with all this when it was in the $10-100 range? 
Ummm... duh?  Stoopid question LOL

But does that mean anyone only getting into it NOW has totally missed the boat?
Maybe, but let's hope NOT, if SS's model is correct...?  There's still plenty of room to run!

But, no, it's not "trading"... it's long term committed investment.  At least for me.  And if it all goes bad and tanks to ZERO at least it was a pretty good shot to try and take: it looks like a good decision to me NOW, and even IF it fails to pay off, I won't be sorry for having TRIED.

Just my "two satoshi's" philosophy for today Wink

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June 03, 2014, 05:50:57 AM
 #519

Extrapolation doesn't work well on trading.

A quick way to poor house if anyone using this method to trade.

LOL, I must be doing really bad then, having followed the method methodically in the last bubble..



If you are talking trend trading with proper risk management, then yes, it works very well on strong directional market.


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June 03, 2014, 06:12:56 AM
 #520

Is that your house?

Yes, I bought it with the profits afforded by the following of the trendline model last winter Smiley
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