Bitcoin Forum
December 12, 2017, 07:18:22 AM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.15.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend  (Read 117311 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic.
BitChick
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1120


View Profile
November 02, 2013, 06:30:47 PM
 #41



(I was using natural logrithm (base e) before for rpietilas function, so I got it wrong... now using hopefully correct function with base 10)


If these graphs are correct, or even close, it really puts things into perspective.  $200 per coin is still so low.  And some people are saying we are already into the late adoption phase?  With these graphs it shows how we are still early adopters for sure and even the small amount of coin some of us are holding is still great in the big scheme of things.


1BitcHiCK1iRa6YVY6qDqC6M594RBYLNPo
1513063102
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1513063102

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1513063102
Reply with quote  #2

1513063102
Report to moderator
1513063102
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1513063102

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1513063102
Reply with quote  #2

1513063102
Report to moderator
1513063102
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1513063102

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1513063102
Reply with quote  #2

1513063102
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
ArticMine
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2086


Monero Core Team


View Profile
November 02, 2013, 07:09:55 PM
 #42


I agree on your points about the exponential model. What would be another model you would suggest for after we surpass ~5% penetration?


After we surpass about 5% penetration i would suggest something along the lines of a Sigmoid Function http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function
Edit With t=0 to correspond to a time in the future where one expects 50% market penetration. For t << 0 the sigmoid function approximates an exponential function

Concerned that blockchain bloat will lead to centralization? Storing less than 4 GB of data once required the budget of a superpower and a warehouse full of punched cards. https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/87/IBM_card_storage.NARA.jpg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punched_card
phelix
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1708


nmc:id/phelix


View Profile
November 02, 2013, 07:13:16 PM
 #43



30 and 90 days graph on http://blockchained.com

"The fit curve is an exponential percentual to the chart least squares fit - in other words: I played around until it looked good."

The factor of increase is about 10 per year.

According to this curve Bitcoins are a little overvalued. My stash is running low and I am looking forward to a nice drop down to ~130 (with panic maybe 110) - as of now I doubt we can sustain prices above $200 for much longer.... 


blockchained.com ■ bitcointalk top posts
ThomasV
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1892



View Profile WWW
November 02, 2013, 08:35:11 PM
 #44

I could not resist:
http://xkcd.com/605/

Electrum: the convenience of a web wallet, without the risks
rpietila
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652



View Profile
November 02, 2013, 10:29:17 PM
 #45

This is an excellent analysis; however there some points I wish to make:

1) The data for the BTC/USD exchange rate for 2009, and early 2010. I have managed to research this and found data for November / December 2009 and posted the results in this post https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=308567.msg3309071#msg3309071 The valuation of .005 BTC /USD is way to high. The values ranged from 0.000614866 to 0.00130719 BTC/USD. Also the "pizza valuation" would place the BTC/USD rate at around 0.0028 in May 2010. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=137.0. The net result of this is to significantly underestimate the current trend and future value.

I am aware of that pricelist, but I discarded it because it is purely theoretical - no actual trade has occurred at those prices (afaik). I have based my estimate on the following nuggests of information that I consider reliable:
- I heard that "Theymos has purchased bitcoins at an all-time Bitcoin-OTC low of 0.003"
- I heard that the pizza incident (at about ~0.0025) was for a significantly cheaper price than commonly prevailing, to induce someone to make the effort
- The Norwegian guy bought BTC5,000 for $27 (0.0054)
- The price 10-doubled when Mt.Gox opened (to 0.08, i.e. from 0.008)

Since I do not have a reliable OTC price history at my disposal, I estimated the whole time to be a flat 0.005. But if someone wants to add to the information, please do!

Quote
2) The exponential model works well only when the market penetration is very low say below 5% since it neglects the probability of a newbie attempting to introduce Bticoin to a veteran. Based upon the value of the world M1 money supply approximately 20 trillion USD and the world gold supply approximately 8.2 trillion USD I would say this model will start to break down between 50,000 and 100,000 BTC/USD.

If we were talking about penetration, the above would hold. But now we are talking about price, and very likely the price will overshoot before finding a long-term realistic value. This has happened before with Internet stocks - userbases have grown steadily but price has behaved erratically, first growing really quickly, overshooting, collapsing, and finding stability.
giszmo
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1568


¡ɥɔʇɐʍ ʇsnɾ &#7


View Profile WWW
November 03, 2013, 03:10:35 AM
 #46

If we were talking about penetration, the above would hold. But now we are talking about price, and very likely the price will overshoot before finding a long-term realistic value. This has happened before with Internet stocks - userbases have grown steadily but price has behaved erratically, first growing really quickly, overshooting, collapsing, and finding stability.

Why would the new world currency "find stability"? Either the powers that be decide to let bitcoin live and take over which will lead to infinite $/Ƀ or they destroy it which leads to 0$/Ƀ. I see little in between so I also disagree with the trend flattening out at some level. Bitcoin gains utility with every business that accepts it and as soon as I can use Bitcoin for everything, I will just close my bank account and say goodbye to fiat. Why would anybody stay with fiat if bitcoin gains ultimate trust with a large percentage of the global economy?

After we surpass about 5% penetration i would suggest something along the lines of a Sigmoid Function http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function
Edit With t=0 to correspond to a time in the future where one expects 50% market penetration. For t << 0 the sigmoid function approximates an exponential function

No. Why would that happen?

DoomDumas
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 993


Bitcoin forever !


View Profile WWW
November 03, 2013, 04:30:38 AM
 #47

Quick'n'dirty excel job:
Edit: better time scale


+1

+1 very nice quick n dirty excel job..

Exactly what I foresee for Bitcoin future value... even more.. is this Bitcoin getting more valuable and/or Fiat U$ getting less and less valuable as more and more peoples understand the fiat ponzi ?

Cheesy

Welcome to the future of currency !
DoomDumas
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 993


Bitcoin forever !


View Profile WWW
November 03, 2013, 04:33:13 AM
 #48


30 and 90 days graph on http://blockchained.com

"The fit curve is an exponential percentual to the chart least squares fit - in other words: I played around until it looked good."

The factor of increase is about 10 per year.

According to this curve Bitcoins are a little overvalued. My stash is running low and I am looking forward to a nice drop down to ~130 (with panic maybe 110) - as of now I doubt we can sustain prices above $200 for much longer.... 


I bet we'll not see bitcoins under 200 U$ ever !!!

Tongue

Wary
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 798


Who's there?


View Profile
November 03, 2013, 05:18:58 AM
 #49

I haven't made up my mind about how large the effect of using least squares in logarithmic space to fit a linear model vs. using least squares in linear space to fit an exponential model is. It might be negligible (or non-existant?), but it might also be large.
In the least squares method only the biggest values matter. So the shape of the curve in linear space would be defined based only on this year data. Which is not what we want. So using least squares in logarifmic space was the right way.


Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
Wary
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 798


Who's there?


View Profile
November 03, 2013, 05:27:31 AM
 #50

After we surpass about 5% penetration i would suggest something along the lines of a Sigmoid Function http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sigmoid_function Edit With t=0 to correspond to a time in the future where one expects 50% market penetration. For t << 0 the sigmoid function approximates an exponential function
After 5% a new factor will come: Fiat's market share diminishing > fiat depreciates > everybody dumping it. Positive feedback loop, fiat run. So the jump from 5% to 100% can be very fast.

Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
bitcoin carpenter
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1414


View Profile
November 03, 2013, 05:35:48 AM
 #51

Remember, even if there were no large holders, only 22 million people could own 1 full bitcoin

In the end it will be worth an unfathomable amount or nothing


 
 
           ▄████▄
         ▄████████▄
       ▄████████████▄
     ▄████████████████▄
    ████████████████████      ▄█▄                 ▄███▄                 ▄███▄                 ▄████████████████▀   ▄██████████

  ▄▄▄▀█████▀▄▄▄▄▀█████▀▄▄▄     ▀██▄             ▄██▀ ▀██▄             ▄██▀ ▀██▄             ▄██▀                   ██
▄█████▄▀▀▀▄██████▄▀▀▀▄█████▄     ▀██▄         ▄██▀     ▀██▄         ▄██▀     ▀██▄         ▄██▀        ▄█▄          ▀██████████████▄
████████████████████████████       ▀██▄     ▄██▀         ▀██▄     ▄██▀         ▀██▄     ▄██▀          ▀█▀                        ██
 ▀████████████████████████▀          ▀██▄ ▄██▀             ▀██▄ ▄██▀     ▄█▄     ▀██▄ ▄██▀                                       ██
   ▀████████████████████▀              ▀███▀                 ▀███▀       ▀█▀       ▀███▀      ▄███████████████████████████████████▀
     ▀████████████████▀
       ▀████████████▀
         ▀████████▀
           ▀████▀
║║


║║
.
.

║║
██
║║
.
.

║║
██
║║
.
║║


║║
rpietila
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652



View Profile
November 03, 2013, 07:09:50 AM
 #52

If we were talking about penetration, the above would hold. But now we are talking about price, and very likely the price will overshoot before finding a long-term realistic value. This has happened before with Internet stocks - userbases have grown steadily but price has behaved erratically, first growing really quickly, overshooting, collapsing, and finding stability.
Why would the new world currency "find stability"? Either the powers that be decide to let bitcoin live and take over which will lead to infinite $/Ƀ or they destroy it which leads to 0$/Ƀ. I see little in between so I also disagree with the trend flattening out at some level. Bitcoin gains utility with every business that accepts it and as soon as I can use Bitcoin for everything, I will just close my bank account and say goodbye to fiat. Why would anybody stay with fiat if bitcoin gains ultimate trust with a large percentage of the global economy?

Stability against the USD? Of course not, since the latter will die.

Stability means that wages and prices are denominated in XBT and do not fluctuate so much.

(I have always had the implicit assumption in my theories that "USD" means "2013USD" so as to only account for the bitcoin's rise, and not the USD's demise.)
rpietila
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652



View Profile
November 03, 2013, 07:11:02 AM
 #53

Remember, even if there were no large holders, only 22 million people could own 1 full bitcoin

In the end it will be worth an unfathomable amount or nothing

, where "nothing" means "0 <= X < $10,000" per BTC.
rpietila
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652



View Profile
November 03, 2013, 08:50:18 AM
 #54

OP updated with chart and methodology!
Zarathustra
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1050



View Profile
November 03, 2013, 08:59:01 AM
 #55


chart courtesy to oper128




Flattening out?

.

███████████████████████
███████████████████████████
█████████████████████████████
██████████████████████████████
██████████████████████████████
██████████████
███████████████
██████████████
███████████████
██████████████
███████████████
██████████████
███████████████
██████████████
███████████████
██████████████
███████████████
██████████████
███████████████
██████████████
███████████████
██████████████
███████████████
██████████████
███████████████
██████████████
█████████████
██████████████
██████████████
██████████████
██████████████
██████████████
███████████████
██████████████
███████████████
██████████████
███████████████
█████████
███████████████
████████
████████████████████
█████████
██████████████████
██████████████████████████████
██████████████████████████████
██████████████████████████████
█████████████████████████████
███████████████████████████
███████████████████████












molecular
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2436



View Profile
November 03, 2013, 09:13:32 AM
 #56

I haven't made up my mind about how large the effect of using least squares in logarithmic space to fit a linear model vs. using least squares in linear space to fit an exponential model is. It might be negligible (or non-existant?), but it might also be large.
In the least squares method only the biggest values matter. So the shape of the curve in linear space would be defined based only on this year data. Which is not what we want. So using least squares in logarifmic space was the right way.

In that case I'm probably not sure about "what we want" here. Note: I'm not arguing that we shouldn't do it like rpietila did, just that it isn't clear-cut.

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
rpietila
Donator
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1652



View Profile
November 03, 2013, 12:22:31 PM
 #57

Flattening out?

I will stick to just one trendline, thank you Smiley

As outlined in the OP, there are myriads of other methods in drawing trendlines that differ in the following main points from mine:
- Daily exchange data used / this uses monthly volume weighted
- Starting 7/2010 when Gox opened / this starts 1/2009 when Bitcoin started
- Trend drawn by hand / this trend drawn using least squares method.
stripykitteh
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 854


Not lurking.


View Profile
November 03, 2013, 01:17:21 PM
 #58

Interesting analysis.

Something to bear in mind when considering the exchange rate skyrocketing is the possibility (or probability) that not only will bitcoin become more valuable, but fiat will become less valuable. So while an exchange rate of $300,000 in 2016 sounds optimistic, it is less so if the dollar fell significantly. After all, the trend line only compares relative value, not intrinsic value.

Either way, the argument for having some exposure to bitcoin in its infancy is sustained.

▃▃▃▌▌  STORIQA  ▐▐▃▃▃▃
Global marketplace
noob2001
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 630


View Profile WWW
November 03, 2013, 09:28:03 PM
 #59

Great analysis and charts. Thanks
Wary
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 798


Who's there?


View Profile
November 03, 2013, 09:44:58 PM
 #60

In the least squares method only the biggest values matter. So the shape of the curve in linear space would be defined based only on this year data. Which is not what we want. So using least squares in logarifmic space was the right way.
In that case I'm probably not sure about "what we want" here. Note: I'm not arguing that we shouldn't do it like rpietila did, just that it isn't clear-cut.
We are trying to find an exponent curve that matches bitcoin growth for it's whole history. That curve will let us predict bitcoin future growth. But for it to work, some assumptions must hold:

i. Mechanics of bitcoin growth is viral: basically every 3 month each old user "infects" a new user. That causes the exponent.
ii. The rate of infection is constant, whether BTC worth 1c or 10K$, whether is it a crypto-geek infecting his friend or multi-billion hedge fund infecting it's competitor.

This is obviously a big simplification. Any model is simplification. The trick is to get complexity just right, to go between Scylla and Charybda. If the model is too simple, it's predictions will be too far off the mark. If it's too complex, we won't have enough data to setup it's parameters.

1.The simplest model: OP.  IMO, it's too simple (I doubt the assumption ii) and, as result, too optimistic.

2. More complex: Zarathustra's model. Here he discards assumption ii, and draws a 4-segment line instead of 1 line. So the Scylla is better, but there is already a bit of Charybda: he lack enough data to draw the 4-th segment, since he draws by peaks and we don't know where the current peak is going to be. Maybe the better approach would be to use just 2 segments, with joint somwhere in 2011 and match them using least squares technique.

3. Even more complex: Staircase model. Discard both assumption. Instead take others.
i. Growth is viral: but it is not users that are infected, but markets. Geek market infects SR market, SR market infects amator speculators market etc. It causes "staircase" curve. Vertical part is filling up of the market, horysontal part - building of infrastructure for the next market.
ii. The rate of infection is different for each step and depends on relative size of markets, how long it takes to build infrastructure etc.

Unfortunately this model would be practically useless because of Charybda: we don't know all the required parameters.

So I would suggest improving rpietila's model: using least squares method, match (in log scale) either 2-segment line, or a log curve.

Anyone with experience of a proper math package?

Fairplay medal of dnaleor's trading simulator. Smiley
Pages: « 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!