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Author Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend  (Read 116185 times)
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November 25, 2013, 06:00:32 PM
 #241

snip: Great Chart!


Thank you.
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November 26, 2013, 01:37:56 AM
 #242

And in the end your resolution requirements can never be high enough because of the disproportionate role of tail events that are difficult to predict and the psychological bias implicit in reduction to theory that favors certainty and denies ambiguity (because of death anxiety). In other words:
What you are saying is not coming through. Black swans are quite common globally, but rare within single constricted systems. FAPP we need to take the risk to omit them - and suffer the eventual consequences without whining when we repeat that risk over and over again until the unlikely becomes nearly certain on a personal scale.

Black swans are rare by definition, that's the point. We can make our thinking more robust to black swans by understanding that there will always be a gap between concepts and being, yet the gap is not so wide as to make concepts useless, nor is it so small as to make them coextensive. It's simply a matter of hoping for the best, and preparing for the worst.  
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November 26, 2013, 04:11:03 AM
 #243

Using rpietilas trend line the price reaches  $1000 in May 2014, $10,000 in April 2015 and $300,000 in August 2016.
Beeing totally crappy at math I wonder if someone could please tell me when it reaches respectively 100,000 USD 1000,000 USD 1000,000,000 (billion) and 1000,000,000,000 (trillion) USD using that trend line.
Yes, I realize it will never go that high, but I'm just interested in the hypothetical dates.

I also wonder if anyone could please tell me when a BTC firs hit (on Bitstamp) respectively 1, 2, 5, 10, 50, 100 and 500 USD.


While it would be very easy to extrapolate after Aug 2016 and provide you the answer. I would caution against doing so. My assumptions at this point is that exponential growth will hold, anywhere from 2 to 3 years, after that we will switch over to a more linear growth model.
Note: See previous posts on this thread by Slipperyslope on the S-curve model.

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November 26, 2013, 04:15:28 AM
 #244

Using rpietilas trend line the price reaches  $1000 in May 2014, $10,000 in April 2015 and $300,000 in August 2016.
Beeing totally crappy at math I wonder if someone could please tell me when it reaches respectively 100,000 USD 1000,000 USD 1000,000,000 (billion) and 1000,000,000,000 (trillion) USD using that trend line.
Yes, I realize it will never go that high, but I'm just interested in the hypothetical dates.

I also wonder if anyone could please tell me when a BTC firs hit (on Bitstamp) respectively 1, 2, 5, 10, 50, 100 and 500 USD.


From the btctrend.py script introduced earlier in the thread based upon rpietila's trendline, here are your requested milestones:

$ python btctrend.py 2016-02-16
100640.41

$ python btctrend.py 2017-01-13
1006228.87

$ python btctrend.py 2019-09-30
1000153517.46

$ python btctrend.py 2022-06-19
1005387157377.89

For the second set of numbers, I'd recommend checking out justusranvier's "milestones" thread.

edit: kdrop22 is right. I would never actually expect to see a trillion dollars per coin unless the US turns into Zimbabwe. I don't think there's that much wealth in circulation in the world.
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November 26, 2013, 08:47:25 AM
 #245

That confirms my expectation of a price peak 2015 +/- 1 year, i.e. I don't expect we make it to 2017 before Bitcoin's bubble has collapsed. This is my opinion. No way Bitcoin makes it to $1 million per BTC, because that would be a $20 trillion market cap which is much larger chunk of the global net worth than I think is realistic for what what I view to be an irrational mania not supported by fundamental value of a currency.

You told some time back that you would not sell your experience to me at any cheap price. What part of your experience is only valuable in the context of Internet? What would you say is the value of Internet to you, or to an average person?

As for me, I am able to live without a good health. I would pay much to gain one, though.

But I don't own a house, have a car, or TV, or coffee maker, even though I could buy those things. They are negative value to me.

Without Internet, the world would go back to information repression. Dark ages. Let's say I value the freedom of Internet to $1 million. In actuality I value it much more, because instead of going to work, I spend my days solidifying the Internet by posting valuable free information there. I would make much more money than $1 million by going to work and scheming something that profits me in the expense of others.

I think Bitcoin brings even more important things to the game than Internet. It is the coercion-free money (transfer protocol) of the Internet, and capable of bringing such abundance and freedom that the oppressive structures of the world would just lose their grip. Vote, or exit. Bitcoin enables exit in actuality for large groups of brilliant people, whereas PM's only enabled exit for very few (like you and me), and those could not leverage their exit any way. Internet enabled exit for VC investors (pun), but their money sits in the controlled financial instruments. Bitcoin is the most important exit, considering everything that has been available so far.

So what is my net worth calculation? Health. Knowledge. Most of the other things are worth zero (and for this reason I don't have them). Oh yes, and some financial wealth, most of it in bitcoins.
 
Is it so difficult to think that the Internet is worth a double-digit percentage of the world? The world is valued at $400T, which does not include Internet. I cannot easily dream how Bitcoin protocol in practicality changes the world (any more than I was able to grasp how many industries were revolutionized by Internet before it started to happen), but I can say that $6T, gold's market cap, is only realistic in the case that Bitcoin does not turn out to be more than digital gold.

If it really takes off, it makes most of the valued structures in the world obsolete (the same way as I sold the cars and did not buy a TV even for free). The real limit (in mathematical sense, limit is the absolute upper bound) for Bitcoin's value is more than 50% of the world.

In Old Testament times, the property rights of land could not be enforced, or were not applicable in cases that land was only used for herding. The technology was uniform and there was no capital stock (material or immaterial). The wealth of people consisted of cattle, salt, cloths and garments, and gold and silver. The gold and silver accounted for more than half of all the wealth (including land!).

Perhaps we are entering in an age where most of people's wealth is again in most hidable, most protable, most usable form, as the industrial age and its huge capital requirements give way to Internet based businesses with immaterial capital, capital which can be created directly from knowledge, by mixing in only a trivial amount of money, which is ubiquituous anyway.

Soon everybody is so rich that money will only be used to buy groceries. The more interesting things of this life will not be (able to be) bought with money, any more than they are now. The difference is that nobody will be out of groceries Smiley
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November 26, 2013, 09:31:58 AM
 #246

That confirms my expectation of a price peak 2015 +/- 1 year, i.e. I don't expect we make it to 2017 before Bitcoin's bubble has collapsed. This is my opinion. No way Bitcoin makes it to $1 million per BTC, because that would be a $20 trillion market cap which is much larger chunk of the global net worth than I think is realistic for what what I view to be an irrational mania not supported by fundamental value of a currency.

You told some time back that you would not sell your experience to me at any cheap price. What part of your experience is only valuable in the context of Internet? What would you say is the value of Internet to you, or to an average person?

Indeed the internet was able to give me a much larger market. Before the internet I was able to sell 30,000 copies of WordUp yet had to use distributors (who took a large %), do physical manufacturing and shipping, etc.. Upon the arrival of the internet, I was able to distribute 1 million freeware copies of CoolPage (roughly the same unit sales as WordUp though but no middle man other than the payment processors so much higher profit and less time wasted). The internet reflects the growth in the usage of the computer also.

As for me, I am able to live without a good health. I would pay much to gain one, though.

Seriously Risto, order 5000 IU Vitamin D3 tablets produced from wool's oil. This is a fundamental hormone of the immune system, so it will deal with almost any health issue systemically, even lifts mood. I don't know the specifics of your health issue, but I would be probably dead or wallowing in bed if I hadn't discovered the D3 in August for my auto-immune condition. You can go up to 30,000 IU daily for about 30 days before toxicity to the liver. About 10,000 IU daily sustained. Best to monitor liver above that. Don't intake calcium (milk, cheese, etc) while supplementing in high doses. Consider Vit K2 simultaneously.

http://www.vitamindwiki.com/VitaminDWiki

http://www.vitamindwiki.com/Hypothesis+of+Autoimmunity+which+includes+Barr+Virus+and+Vitamin+D+Deficiency+%E2%80%93+2012

But I don't own a house, have a car, or TV, or coffee maker, even though I could buy those things. They are negative value to me.

Agreed material things burden me.

I am programming out of house without any furniture except a bed, eroded wooden table I found in the back yard, a chair, a ref, and an aircon. My beat up 2003 model year diesel SUV sits outside, because I can't travel efficiently to go eat without it.

My SUV serves as my closet for my clothes, basketball, bottled water supply, etc.

Without Internet, the world would go back to information repression. Dark ages. Let's say I value the freedom of Internet to $1 million.

I value it at maybe $billions. Actually priceless as you say. Agreed $1 million is conservative. I generated more than that in (properly) inflation adjusted dollars 1998 - 2006 on the internet.

In actuality I value it much more, because instead of going to work, I spend my days solidifying the Internet by posting valuable free information there. I would make much more money than $1 million by going to work and scheming something that profits me in the expense of others.

I think you are involved in a scheme now, perhaps not consciously as you may really believe in Bitcoin as a good thing and not see what I see that is an evil thing in its current multiple failure modes.

But difference of opinion and analysis that is what makes a market, so I will agree to disagree.

I think Bitcoin brings even more important things to the game than Internet. It is the coercion-free money (transfer protocol) of the Internet,

I entirely disagree. I think it not at all coercion-resistant. That is the main reason I turned against it. That is why I wrote the article Bitcoin : The Digital Kill Switch. And then after that it became apparent to me that the transactions couldn't scale for numerous reason both technical and economics (concentration of holdings).

and capable of bringing such abundance and freedom that the oppressive structures of the world would just lose their grip. Vote, or exit. Bitcoin enables exit in actuality for large groups of brilliant people,

That is why I am uber sad and motivated to not let Bitcoin take down all of us. Without us, the internet will take a heavy blow. I see a very serious evil behind Bitcoin's flaws. You are cutting to the core of it.

Whether you agree or disagree with me, at least I hope you understand my motivation is based on the same concept that you claim motivates you. It is just we see the prospective scenery differently at the moment.

whereas PM's only enabled exit for very few (like you and me), and those could not leverage their exit any way. Internet enabled exit for VC investors (pun), but their money sits in the controlled financial instruments. Bitcoin is the most important exit, considering everything that has been available so far.

Agreed a major conceptual advance, but in my opinion (analysis, which I have bared for all to read and attempt to refute) the design is not what we actually need to accomplish that conceptual utopia.

So what is my net worth calculation? Health. Knowledge. Most of the other things are worth zero (and for this reason I don't have them).

Exactly.

Oh yes, and some financial wealth, most of it in bitcoins.

I remember the Parable of the Talents. These bits are only on loan for us to maximize results with. It is about advancing knowledge and health.


Is it so difficult to think that the Internet is worth a double-digit percentage of the world? The world is valued at $400T, which does not include Internet.

Bitcoin is not the internet. In my opinion is a trojan that can severely damage the internet.


I cannot easily dream how Bitcoin protocol in practicality changes the world (any more than I was able to grasp how many industries were revolutionized by Internet before it started to happen), but I can say that $6T, gold's market cap, is only realistic in the case that Bitcoin does not turn out to be more than digital gold.

It surely will spawn something. But it won't necessarily be Bitcoin. As Peter Schiff said today, do you remember all the search engines before google, such as Yahoo, Ask Jeeves, Altavista, Excite, etc..


If it really takes off, it makes most of the valued structures in the world obsolete (the same way as I sold the cars and did not buy a TV even for free). The real limit (in mathematical sense, limit is the absolute upper bound) for Bitcoin's value is more than 50% of the world.

Google is arguably more influential on the internet than Bitcoin and no one is arguing for 50% of the world.

Your equating of Bitcoin == internet is illogical. The internet is a zillion things, not one thing. If ever it became one thing, then it won't be the internet any more.

I made my worst investing decisions when I was so sick in 2012. I lost $75,000. I think you are in a similar foggy, haze with your equating of internet == Bitcoin.


In Old Testament times, the property rights of land could not be enforced, or were not applicable in cases that land was only used for herding. The technology was uniform and there was no capital stock (material or immaterial). The wealth of people consisted of cattle, salt, cloths and garments, and gold and silver. The gold and silver accounted for more than half of all the wealth (including land!).

Perhaps we are entering in an age where most of people's wealth is again in most hidable, most protable, most usable form, as the industrial age and its huge capital requirements give way to Internet based businesses with immaterial capital, capital which can be created directly from knowledge, by mixing in only a trivial amount of money, which is ubiquituous anyway.

Yes and I know exactly what form it is in. Knowledge. You carry it with you. It can't be stolen, you can't lose it, and it is not fungible.


Soon everybody is so rich that money will only be used to buy groceries. The more interesting things of this life will not be (able to be) bought with money, any more than they are now. The difference is that nobody will be out of groceries Smiley

Exactly. Our knowledge will be unique and highly sought after, because we love diversity. As an example, listen a new song you love 500 times. You will love it much less. Diversity of creation is God's creation.

But standing between now and that utopia is a very menancing threat. That a simple or super majority humans are not ready for this transition and the governments are bankrupt and will fight for that old world.

We will first crash the globe.

For example, China will let the Yuan float between now and 2020, and it will rise in value as China transitions away from subsidizing exports to a more balanced economy with consumers reaping growth. Yet to get there will crash the exports along with the crashing western debt bubble. Thus China will rebalance by shrinking the misallocated export and fixed capital investment (and SOEs) sectors, and the consumer sector which is small will grow but not enough nominally to offset that collapse in the wasteful sectors that must die. This will be a contribution to global contagion coming after 2015.

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November 26, 2013, 10:11:09 PM
 #247

@rpietila

brilliant, I agree with you.
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November 27, 2013, 12:27:40 AM
 #248

Possible SantaClaus rally up to that green triangle before new years.

Pardon those dots, the orange ones are bearish calls and bullish are green @ tradingview charting.

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November 29, 2013, 09:55:34 AM
 #249

Two days more, then we will have November average, which looks quite different from October.

Also I received information from sirius, he said that definitely the first forex transaction involving Bitcoin happened in early 2009 and he was a counterpart. He gave away 5,000 bitcoins and received a certificate for $5. At that time Bitcoin "did not have even 10 users". Do you think we should try to populate the "2009-early 2010" section with better data or not, including this one?

In my opinion it is a great testimony that we just crossed 100,000,000% value appreciation  Grin
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November 29, 2013, 06:27:24 PM
 #250

In my opinion it is a great testimony that we just crossed 100,000,000% value appreciation  Grin

It is truly amazing. What historic assets or companies have risen that much? Are there others?
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November 29, 2013, 06:54:03 PM
 #251

In my opinion it is a great testimony that we just crossed 100,000,000% value appreciation  Grin

It is truly amazing. What historic assets or companies have risen that much? Are there others?

I would say, no. It is "easy" to have a 1000x value appreciation with startups, perhaps 10,000x is possible. 100,000x hardly.

A MILLION TIMES INCREASE IN 4 YEARS 10 MONTHS IS A NEVER BEFORE IN WRITTEN HISTORY EVENT.
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November 29, 2013, 11:56:16 PM
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@rpietila. Will you make a new graph with a new trend line when the November figures are in?

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November 30, 2013, 02:16:10 AM
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In my opinion it is a great testimony that we just crossed 100,000,000% value appreciation  Grin

It is truly amazing. What historic assets or companies have risen that much? Are there others?

I would say, no. It is "easy" to have a 1000x value appreciation with startups, perhaps 10,000x is possible. 100,000x hardly.

A MILLION TIMES INCREASE IN 4 YEARS 10 MONTHS IS A NEVER BEFORE IN WRITTEN HISTORY EVENT.

You pick an arbitrary transaction between private parties to create some irrational hyperbole.

Heck if I note that Dori in a Thirld World country internet cafe gave me free internet access ($0.25 per hour normally) in exchange for my promise to share some of the ownership of Art-O-matic, then does that mean I count the gain after 3 years of the $1.2 million IPO valuation that I was offered in 2001 as a counter-example to your claim.

Have you priced the Tulip mania in comparison? Are you sure you really want to show the "investment" only matches manias and not real investments throughout history?

The gloating is what people who deserve to lose their talents do, because they aren't productive any more, because they've been made too rich to do any real work.

I guess you will delete this post too.

While i respect your opinion as much as anyones, i strongly disagree with your belief of how bitcoin is a malevolent innovation destined to fail and possibly cause major damage.

I have read through several of your posts, and most notably is your constant tendency to reference existent companies, as if bitcoin is even remotely close to a company. You can't estimate or predict the future of bitcoin by "logical economic speculation" using traditional knowledge. This is not a company, this is not a stock. This is bitcoin, a digital cryptocurrency with tendencies we've never seen the likes of.

People need to start realizing that in order to predict the future of bitcoin and evaluate it's risk of failure, you need to think about the psychological nature of the population. You need to estimate when information reaches certain demographics of the population, and how the infrastructure is being developed. The development of the protocol is also important to keep an eye on, as it is being worked on constantly and will most definitely improve on a faster pace given increased interest and market cap. People invest when they see potential growth in the future. Bitcoin will fail when the population loses that faith entirely.

In my personal opinion, i believe there will come a day when stabilization of bitcoin is completely possible. It requires these aforementioned steps to be fulfilled successfully, and i believe they will be. Everyone is entitled to their personal opinion, but i suggest a more open-minded, liberal view, when trying to predict the future of such a revolutionary innovation.
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November 30, 2013, 07:34:53 AM
 #254

In my opinion it is a great testimony that we just crossed 100,000,000% value appreciation  Grin

It is truly amazing. What historic assets or companies have risen that much? Are there others?

I would say, no. It is "easy" to have a 1000x value appreciation with startups, perhaps 10,000x is possible. 100,000x hardly.

A MILLION TIMES INCREASE IN 4 YEARS 10 MONTHS IS A NEVER BEFORE IN WRITTEN HISTORY EVENT.

You pick an arbitrary transaction between private parties to create some irrational hyperbole.

Heck if I note that Dori in a Thirld World country internet cafe gave me free internet access ($0.25 per hour normally) in exchange for my promise to share some of the ownership of Art-O-matic, then does that mean I count the gain after 3 years of the $1.2 million IPO valuation that I was offered in 2001 as a counter-example to your claim.

Have you priced the Tulip mania in comparison? Are you sure you really want to show the "investment" only matches manias and not real investments throughout history?

The gloating is what people who deserve to lose their talents do, because they aren't productive any more, because they've been made too rich to do any real work.

I guess you will delete this post too.

As I understand it he is trying to find the very first transaction to get a relevant starting point. I don't find that arbitrary.

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November 30, 2013, 07:45:43 AM
 #255

A MILLION TIMES INCREASE IN 4 YEARS 10 MONTHS IS A NEVER BEFORE IN WRITTEN HISTORY EVENT.

You pick an arbitrary transaction between private parties to create some irrational hyperbole.

The first bitcoin<->fiat transaction is hardly arbitrary.

Quote
I guess you will delete this post too.

Of course. You are embarrassing yourself with off-topic rant in a thread that is especially dedicated to finding out about the price history in pre-exchange period. It is like jumping in a surgery room and disturbing everyone saying: "surgery is arbitrary!!". Perhaps, but that's what we do here. Now, go attend to your own business.
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November 30, 2013, 07:54:51 AM
 #256

@rpietila. Will you make a new graph with a new trend line when the November figures are in?

I can make the trendline equation + adjust the targets, someone else can post the new graph and I update the OP.

At any rate, we are now seriously above/ahead of the trendline, which means that there is a much greater downside risk (more probable and more deeper) than most of us believe. I am afraid that if the current holders have not sold because it's going to the moon, the suddenly feel an urge to sell at $500 because even that price gives quite a return for bitcoins that have been owned for more than 2 months. Meanwhile the new money will dry up. That 2 weeks ago was not a crash does not mean that now would not be. It is much more probable now as we are higher.
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November 30, 2013, 08:23:47 AM
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I am not worried about new money drying up, the general population is just beginning to discover bitcoin and the Chinese have just begun trading.
Personally I think we will have to wait for some time before the there is a serious dip.

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November 30, 2013, 08:33:46 AM
 #258

I am not worried about new money drying up, the general population is just beginning to discover bitcoin and the Chinese have just begun trading.
Personally I think we will have to wait for some time before the there is a serious dip.

The dip will come when you least expect it. How many truly, honestly expect a dip that could come today, or any day now?

I do. But there are not many. Hopefully tomorrow and the November average will show how ridiculously ahead of the trend it has suddenly become by rising so much in just 1 month.
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November 30, 2013, 08:58:55 AM
 #259

November datapoint is here! Smiley

517.00

Now, it seems that I accidentally destroyed my calculation sheet  Embarrassed , so perhaps the ones who helped me previously, can recalculate the trendline and redraw the chart. Because the new value is above the previous trendline, it should steepen/raise it ever so slightly.

Compared to previous trendtarget, the November price was 56% ahead, so not exactly cheap.

The current price of $1,144 is 249% ahead, which is an amber light that there is a high probability of a deep crash.

Especially notable is that the $600-$1,200 area has seen (relatively) very little volume, evidenced by the monthly vwa of only $517.
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November 30, 2013, 10:10:41 AM
 #260

In my opinion it is a great testimony that we just crossed 100,000,000% value appreciation  Grin

It is truly amazing. What historic assets or companies have risen that much? Are there others?

I would say, no. It is "easy" to have a 1000x value appreciation with startups, perhaps 10,000x is possible. 100,000x hardly.

A MILLION TIMES INCREASE IN 4 YEARS 10 MONTHS IS A NEVER BEFORE IN WRITTEN HISTORY EVENT.

I am not surprised, Bitcoin is the first significant asset in the history to have its price completely decided by the market, thus the meteoric rise, think a moment how many folds will Google's stock price multiplies had they IPOed at near $0.

https://tlsnotary.org/ Fraud proofing decentralized fiat-Bitcoin trading.
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