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Author Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend  (Read 117348 times)
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DoomDumas
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November 04, 2013, 06:32:50 PM
 #61

Interesting analysis.

Something to bear in mind when considering the exchange rate skyrocketing is the possibility (or probability) that not only will bitcoin become more valuable, but fiat will become less valuable. So while an exchange rate of $300,000 in 2016 sounds optimistic, it is less so if the dollar fell significantly. After all, the trend line only compares relative value, not intrinsic value.

Either way, the argument for having some exposure to bitcoin in its infancy is sustained.

+1

Totally agree.. relative value.. everything is there !
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rpietila
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November 06, 2013, 07:48:01 AM
 #62

dree12 has compiled the data from Mt.Gox (6/2013-> Stamp) with greater precision:

Code:
"2010-08","0.0647499670783823"
"2010-09","0.061954020274147086"
"2010-10","0.10582991127505428"
"2010-11","0.27056745743101035"
"2010-12","0.24010984584593584"
"2011-01","0.38858180917534374"
"2011-02","0.8960578304157628"
"2011-03","0.8507913320085179"
"2011-04","1.502187236294624"
"2011-05","6.384160766440483"
"2011-06","18.548271754213044"
"2011-07","14.1037341177656"
"2011-08","9.752957091428916"
"2011-09","5.759628530472161"
"2011-10","3.301818830471977"
"2011-11","2.59770303849321"
"2011-12","3.508841773813272"
"2012-01","6.106948530818074"
"2012-02","5.0629012809481555"
"2012-03","4.88026245169567"
"2012-04","4.979702748141324"
"2012-05","5.062788532597013"
"2012-06","6.026649772612354"
"2012-07","8.043786615126523"
"2012-08","10.87919315075586"
"2012-09","11.465951649610172"
"2012-10","11.578438689611142"
"2012-11","11.505423856163247"
"2012-12","13.329754439355359"
"2013-01","16.30940895076361"
"2013-02","25.933876759727013"
"2013-03","58.144059684555"
"2013-04","115.09268141788563"
"2013-05","112.81303150360635"
"2013-06","108.3900675602325"
"2013-07","83.80252582024497"
"2013-08","105.79276538949902"
"2013-09","124.32868197086977"
"2013-10","156.4950743054255"

When I have the opportunity, I will check if this should replace the earlier data, and recalculate if needed.

Since many want the historical trend to have predictive value, I will try to see if it could have some. My method will likely be based on observing the changes in slope, and it will prompt selling if we are clearly above the trend and buying in every other case.
molecular
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November 06, 2013, 07:56:45 AM
 #63

funny fact:

In June of 2010, one Bitcoin was worth $0.004 : Now one dollar is worth 0.004 Bitcoin

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kdrop22
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November 08, 2013, 05:33:09 PM
 #64

Interesting chart from Reddit
http://i.imgur.com/GOYWUMo.png

Barnacle_Ed
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November 08, 2013, 06:27:20 PM
 #65

Interesting chart from Reddit
http://i.imgur.com/GOYWUMo.png

To quote the fine print from any major stockbroker, "past performance is no guarantee of future results". As much as I'd personally like to see a constant linear growth in the price of BTC, I highly doubt the continued accuracy of this model...

kdrop22
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November 08, 2013, 08:00:47 PM
 #66

Quote from: kdrop22 on Today at 05:33:09 PM
Interesting chart from Reddit
http://i.imgur.com/GOYWUMo.png

To quote the fine print from any major stockbroker, "past performance is no guarantee of future results". As much as I'd personally like to see a constant linear growth in the price of BTC, I highly doubt the continued accuracy of this model...

***************
I agree, there is no guarantee of exponential growth in the future. As the market grows bigger and bigger, the growth patter will move from exponential to linear and so on....
SlipperySlope
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November 09, 2013, 12:01:58 AM
 #67

I believe that the adoption of bitcoin as a technological innovation will follow a logistic function. From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function ...

Quote
Historically, when new products are introduced there is an intense amount of research and development which leads to dramatic improvements in quality and reductions in cost. This leads to a period of rapid industry growth. Some of the more famous examples are: railroads, incandescent light bulbs, electrification, the Ford Model T, air travel and computers. Eventually, dramatic improvement and cost reduction opportunities are exhausted, the product or process are in widespread use with few remaining potential new customers, and markets become saturated.

Accordingly logistic functions have this relevant property ...
Quote
The initial stage of growth is approximately exponential; then, as saturation begins, the growth slows, and at maturity, growth stops.



The X-axis is relative time and the Y-axis is percent adoption. We should observe linear bitcoin growth when it reaches 50% of adoption.

A further complexity is that bitcoin, once fully adopted, will continue to grow, or shrink as the case may be, with the change in the underlying economy.
kdrop22
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November 09, 2013, 03:32:02 AM
 #68

I believe that the adoption of bitcoin as a technological innovation will follow a logistic function. From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function ...

Quote
Historically, when new products are introduced there is an intense amount of research and development which leads to dramatic improvements in quality and reductions in cost. This leads to a period of rapid industry growth. Some of the more famous examples are: railroads, incandescent light bulbs, electrification, the Ford Model T, air travel and computers. Eventually, dramatic improvement and cost reduction opportunities are exhausted, the product or process are in widespread use with few remaining potential new customers, and markets become saturated.

Accordingly logistic functions have this relevant property ...
Quote
The initial stage of growth is approximately exponential; then, as saturation begins, the growth slows, and at maturity, growth stops.



The X-axis is relative time and the Y-axis is percent adoption. We should observe linear bitcoin growth when it reaches 50% of adoption. Presently, we are far, far away from 50% adoption.

A further complexity is that bitcoin, once fully adopted, will continue to grow, or shrink as the case may be, with the change in the underlying economy.

Nice chart and analysis
rpietila
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November 09, 2013, 12:05:32 PM
 #69

A further complexity is that bitcoin, once fully adopted, will continue to grow, or shrink as the case may be, with the change in the underlying economy.

This is (likely) true concerning adoption. Price, however, will much more likely go exponentially higher, then parabolically even higher, and then crash. And that top value will never be reached anymore, it is a true bubble. My present estimate is that you can buy dozens of luxury apartments with 1 bitcoin at the top.
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November 09, 2013, 12:21:07 PM
 #70

A further complexity is that bitcoin, once fully adopted, will continue to grow, or shrink as the case may be, with the change in the underlying economy.

More appropriately it will grow or shrink with the change in the underlying internet economy (which proportionately is growing MUCH faster than the rest).  Bitcoin's primary sweetspot, where it remains unchallenged and supreme, is for the internet transaction.

For the worlds beyond the internet, it is mostly uncharted territory yet.  Bitcoin needs proxies there, debit cards, gyft cards, fiat gateways, bitpay, coinbase, tangible currency (coin), and the rest.

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November 09, 2013, 03:23:42 PM
 #71

A further complexity is that bitcoin, once fully adopted, will continue to grow, or shrink as the case may be, with the change in the underlying economy.

This is (likely) true concerning adoption. Price, however, will much more likely go exponentially higher, then parabolically even higher, and then crash. And that top value will never be reached anymore, it is a true bubble. My present estimate is that you can buy dozens of luxury apartments with 1 bitcoin at the top.

I was under the impression your latest estimates for BTC top to be < 500K? I thought I was following your logic, but this seems to suggest another order of mag. ....Oh I now understand. You expect the bubble top to be another order higher and then crash back to 300K. Correct?
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November 09, 2013, 07:35:18 PM
 #72

I was under the impression your latest estimates for BTC top to be < 500K? I thought I was following your logic, but this seems to suggest another order of mag. ....Oh I now understand. You expect the bubble top to be another order higher and then crash back to 300K. Correct?

In principle, yes. Although if fiat is totally obliterated, also the "long term fair value" of bitcoin may be higher than $300k.
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November 09, 2013, 07:58:29 PM
 #73

Can someone plot dree's data onto a sigmoid graph to see where we are and what is says we will go to?  I am very curious.

I found an thread here that talks about someone using Excel to do something like that:

http://www.excelforum.com/excel-programming-vba-macros/784650-non-linear-regression-fitting-data-to-a-sigmoidal-psychophysical-curve.html

I would do it but I'm too busy this weekend.

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November 09, 2013, 09:23:24 PM
 #74

I was under the impression your latest estimates for BTC top to be < 500K? I thought I was following your logic, but this seems to suggest another order of mag. ....Oh I now understand. You expect the bubble top to be another order higher and then crash back to 300K. Correct?

In principle, yes. Although if fiat is totally obliterated, also the "long term fair value" of bitcoin may be higher than $300k.

Right.
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November 09, 2013, 09:50:52 PM
 #75

A further complexity is that bitcoin, once fully adopted, will continue to grow, or shrink as the case may be, with the change in the underlying economy.

This is (likely) true concerning adoption. Price, however, will much more likely go exponentially higher, then parabolically even higher, and then crash. And that top value will never be reached anymore, it is a true bubble. My present estimate is that you can buy dozens of luxury apartments with 1 bitcoin at the top.

And at the subsequent bottom? 1 luxury apartment less?

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SlipperySlope
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November 11, 2013, 03:14:53 PM
 #76

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdGhDN3FBWFptTlZTREN0cFkxZ3JHTnc

This spreadsheet is my attempt to fit a logistic function to
the bitcoin price history and thus predict its future.
See Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function

Because the initial phase of the logistic curve is exponential, I
found that a wide variety of maximum bitcoin prices could
reasonably match the price history. What is interesting is that
the resulting family of curves revealed that the very rapid
growth of bitcoin prices will not last beyond a few more
years.


I configured the calculations to accept a guess as to what the
maximum bitcoin price in $US will be. I tried four values from
$40000 to $5000000. For each maximum bitcoin price, I
manually adjusted the starting X value and adoption period so
that the logistic curve passed through the July 7 2010 price and
also passed through the November 11, 2013 price.

The resulting adoption periods range from 10.3 years for
the $40000 max price to 13.6 years for the $5000000 max
price. The logistic function becomes linear at the adoption
halfway point and then becomes exponentially decreasing.
In the case of a $1000000 bitcoin price, the exponential
growth stops in 2017.

Note that the logistic function is fit to the price curve and
models the behavior of speculators, not the underlying bitcoin
economy - which I suppose may take 20-30 years to become
fully adopted, e.g. replace precious metals and fiat currencies.
Likewise, even after full adoption, bitcoin prices will continue
to grow as the underlying bitcoin economy grows.

Here is the logistic price curve supposing that bitcoin reaches a maximum price of $1000000.
The Y axis is the Log 10 of the price.

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November 11, 2013, 04:59:21 PM
 #77

Great job, thanks for the charts.
Would it be possible to post something with more conservative numbers, perhaps a max of 40,000.
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Stephen Reed


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November 11, 2013, 05:43:54 PM
 #78

Here is my hand-fit logistic function chart assuming a maximum bitcoin price of $40000. The Y axis is the Log10 of the price. Observe that according to this model the price continues to increase exponentially through 2015.



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November 11, 2013, 06:29:53 PM
 #79

What program do you use for those graphs?

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SlipperySlope
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Stephen Reed


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November 11, 2013, 07:06:29 PM
 #80

What program do you use for those graphs?


Google Docs. I created a shared spreadsheet that you should be able to copy and modify. The calculations are adapted from the Wikipedia article on the Logistic Function. The math formulas are my own and any errors therein are mine too.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdGhDN3FBWFptTlZTREN0cFkxZ3JHTnc

Thanks for your interest.
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