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Author Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend  (Read 115601 times)
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rpietila
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July 11, 2014, 12:36:41 PM
 #541

The adjusting of the trendline to the recent sluggish performance has taken its toll from the top projections. The absolute top value of +0.45 only reaches $7000 in 2014-9-13 instead of August projected earlier.
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July 11, 2014, 02:37:35 PM
 #542

The adjusting of the trendline to the recent sluggish performance has taken its toll from the top projections. The absolute top value of +0.45 only reaches $7000 in 2014-9-13 instead of August projected earlier.

But what if the Winklevoss ETF opens before then or something else that triggers a huge run?  We could see this sooner, or even a higher amount depending on other circumstances couldn't we?

Regardless, $7000 by September is nothing to cry about. Wink

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July 11, 2014, 02:39:07 PM
 #543

I would feel better about 7000 in Sept if we were at 1000 now.  It seems such a stretch.

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July 11, 2014, 03:00:07 PM
 #544

I would feel better about 7000 in Sept if we were at 1000 now.  It seems such a stretch.

622->7000 in 60 days is less and slower than last oct-nov.  Wink
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July 11, 2014, 03:59:26 PM
 #545

Might be useful here, too (posted this in the rpietila wall observer thread):

This version of the formula directly works on Wolfram Alpha (copy/paste):

10^(-2.869800 + 0.003012 * ((number of days since 2009 Jan 03)/days))

or just follow this link:

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=10%5E%28-2.869800+%2B+0.003012+*+%28%28number+of+days+since+2009+Jan+03%29%2Fdays%29%29

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July 11, 2014, 05:55:42 PM
 #546

Thank you, LOADING.READY.RUN.  I was going to ask about this
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July 15, 2014, 03:00:06 AM
 #547

I just updated my personal sheet tracking these things. The parameters of that one:
- flat price 0.005 assumed until Mt.Gox opens
- for 7/2010-2012, Mt.Gox prices used
- for 2013, three exchanges
- for 2014, Bitstamp only
- daily VWAP
- first day 2009-1-3, the first day of Bitcoin; last day 2014-7-9, the 2014th day of Bitcoin

The exponential trendline for this time:
USD/BTC = exp(-2.869800 + 0.003012 * D), D being the number of days

R^2 = 0.934183

The trendline is at $1583.

At $623, we are currently -0.405 units below the trend.

For comparison, the max we ever went below the trend prior to the first 2013 runup, was -0.573.
Prior to the second 2013 runup, -0.341.


The maximum downside (greatest drop in price experienced ever after) after a day when price has already been at a low of -0.4 or lower, is -19%, experienced in 2012-10-5 to 2012-10-26, when the price dropped from $12.75 to $10.31.

This is comparable to the price going from $623 to $504 this month. This would put us on par with the maximum historical downside from already such a low point as $623 represents in the trendline.

I will not go to the upside calculations now, just leave the closing remark:


TL;DR: Historically, buying at a price such as this has represented a very low risk entry point with very limited downside in dollar terms.

Historically, selling at a price such as this (for any other purpose than covering immediate needs) has been counterproductive, as it is very likely that you will get a better or at least not much worse a deal; 1, 2, 3, 6, or any number of months in the future.



In the above trend-line formula, can you please describe D (the number of days)? Is it a constant? How this number is calculated?
 
Cheers!

Price Poll: bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=555609
rpietila
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July 15, 2014, 08:08:06 AM
 #548


In the above trend-line formula, can you please describe D (the number of days)? Is it a constant? How this number is calculated?
 
Cheers!

D = number of days since Jan 3, 2009.

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July 15, 2014, 12:52:17 PM
 #549

Not sure if this has been posted but this is the calculation of where today's price is versus the trend line

Currently -0.4169

Current Price vs Trend Line

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July 15, 2014, 01:38:25 PM
 #550

Not sure if this has been posted but this is the calculation of where today's price is versus the trend line

Currently -0.4169

Current Price vs Trend Line

It says 9.992

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July 15, 2014, 02:11:05 PM
 #551

Not sure if this has been posted but this is the calculation of where today's price is versus the trend line

Currently -0.4169

Current Price vs Trend Line

It says 9.992

Not what I got


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July 15, 2014, 04:20:43 PM
 #552


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July 15, 2014, 04:34:51 PM
 #553

well, thats... slightly odd.
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July 15, 2014, 05:05:24 PM
 #554

Their log usage is different.  Wachtwoord did a log on the whole first term.

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July 15, 2014, 05:15:45 PM
 #555

Their log usage is different.  Wachtwoord did a log on the whole first term.

I clicked the link.

But here's a fixed link (I hope) Link

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July 15, 2014, 06:22:36 PM
 #556

Their log usage is different.  Wachtwoord did a log on the whole first term.

I clicked the link.

But here's a fixed link (I hope) Link

Thanks wachtwoord  it might be a browser related issue,

_smudger_

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July 25, 2014, 10:54:01 AM
 #557

bump

-0.4628 still not lower than -0.5 Smiley

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August 08, 2014, 08:33:46 AM
 #558

bump

-0.4628 still not lower than -0.5 Smiley
Now it's lower.


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rpietila
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August 15, 2014, 11:35:08 AM
 #559

Trendline update as of today.

0,002985x - 2,851666

R^2 = 0,935623

Picture is telling the important thing.

In Red, USD/BTC log chart since the beginning (this is a 2050 day chart), with 0 showing $1 and every level is 10x as high as the previous one.

In Blue, the daily deviation from the then-current exponential trendline. (The first trendline calculated is from April-2011 however).


Very crude but shows, among others, that:

- The latest dip from 570 to 510 in Bitcoin price is so insignificant that it can hardly be seen, even though this is a daily chart and not a weekly vwap (same goes for Silkroad flashcrash in 2013-10-3 btw);
- We are currently at -0.56 below the trend, so it is very low;
- We were this low in 2012-5-21; 7-8 months before the uptrend of 2013 started, so it is not a given that we will see an uptrend soon this time either, even if the history was to predict the future;
- However, the lowest price ever seen after 2012-5-21 was only $0.02 lower than the price in 2012-5-21, based on this, the downside from here on is extremely limited.
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August 16, 2014, 02:36:07 AM
 #560

Thank you very much for the updated graph, Risto. It's great to get some long-term perspective in times like these. It's interesting to note that barely a week after that local min on the trend line on 2012-05-21, BTCUSD took off from ~5 to 9.2 on 2012-07-18.
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