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Author Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend  (Read 117348 times)
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David Rabahy
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February 10, 2014, 03:47:31 AM
 #441

The first 150x was utterly trivial compared to the next 150x; this endeavor is not inevitable yet.  The next 10x is more than the climb from zero to where we are right now.  The easiest part came first with all due credit to the innovators.  Now comes the real work of converting the early majority.  Most of us are early adopters (fans beyond all rational).  Bitcoin and all derivatives thereof will be contained in a niche unless a very good plan is formulated and executed.  Absolutely nothing technical will take us there although plenty of it won't hurt.  Our only real hope to breakout is the magic of an idea whose time has come.

Find someone open-minded but clearly outside our worldview, if you can hook them then carefully analyze their process of conversion.  Gather dozens of these and synthesize from them the plan.  Be prepared to invest significantly.  Failed attempts will harden their hearts against us.

The early majority will not work like us; it is not their dream.  They are merely users.  They like the benefits but leave the growth to someone else.
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February 10, 2014, 07:42:17 PM
 #442

Just eyeballing the super-exponential chart, we seem to be lagging the most ever (on par with October) below it. I hope no one takes it as a buying opportunity, because short-term disappointment will be so drastic I hope it ends the short life-span of this lame attempt at regression. Wink
Bought today on margin.

Condolences.
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February 11, 2014, 09:39:06 AM
 #443

Could you add new data to the OP? Would be nice to see how it has been doing on this exponential trend line. Price on the trend line is now something like 650$/btc, right?

It's very unlikely that I am Satoshi.
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February 11, 2014, 10:42:39 AM
 #444


I'm about to do a complete overhaul of this, I have an analyst working for me. The resolution will be daily, with trendline parameters also constantly updating. Please calculate the current trend using the following parameters, they are very close to correct:

I compiled the new trendline, the parameters of which are:

y = 0,003073x - 2,909514
R² = 0,922424

Here "x" is the number of days passed since and including 3.1.2009. "y" is the log of the prevailing usd/btc. I had to go to use Bitstamp solely for price data since 28.12.2013, because Mt.Gox was not reliable anymore due to its problems and also BTC China has its own problems.

The data is no longer monthly. Daily averages were used.

We are now at $577 in the trendline. Because the current price is higher, we are 0.138 units above the trend.

The trend will reach $800 in 9.3.2014 and $1,000,000 in 11.12.2016.

Today Feb 11, we are at $668 in the trendline.
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February 11, 2014, 11:58:52 AM
 #445


I'm about to do a complete overhaul of this, I have an analyst working for me. The resolution will be daily, with trendline parameters also constantly updating. Please calculate the current trend using the following parameters, they are very close to correct:

I compiled the new trendline, the parameters of which are:

y = 0,003073x - 2,909514
R² = 0,922424

Here "x" is the number of days passed since and including 3.1.2009. "y" is the log of the prevailing usd/btc. I had to go to use Bitstamp solely for price data since 28.12.2013, because Mt.Gox was not reliable anymore due to its problems and also BTC China has its own problems.

The data is no longer monthly. Daily averages were used.

We are now at $577 in the trendline. Because the current price is higher, we are 0.138 units above the trend.

The trend will reach $800 in 9.3.2014 and $1,000,000 in 11.12.2016.

Today Feb 11, we are at $668 in the trendline.

Could you post an updated graph of this?
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February 11, 2014, 12:02:28 PM
 #446

No, I can not. So far others have done that part
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February 13, 2014, 02:09:09 PM
 #447

Another great thread Risto, congrats

"Markets always move in the direction to hurt the most investors." AnonyMint
"Market depth is meaningless" AdamstgBit
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February 14, 2014, 01:09:53 PM
 #448

I updated the logarithmic trend chart.
It looks to me like we have hit the line. (Bitstamp 600ish)

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February 14, 2014, 01:55:19 PM
 #449

Thank you Smiley

Next question is - what will happen next?

A) Bounce from the trendline towards new highs
B) Something else (what?)
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February 14, 2014, 02:10:13 PM
 #450

Thank you Smiley

Next question is - what will happen next?

A) Bounce from the trendline towards new highs
B) Something else (what?)

In a sane and rational world, a period of consolidation, improvement and contemplation.
But this is Bitcoin....

"Markets always move in the direction to hurt the most investors." AnonyMint
"Market depth is meaningless" AdamstgBit
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February 14, 2014, 02:13:05 PM
 #451

Thank you Smiley

Next question is - what will happen next?

A) Bounce from the trendline towards new highs
B) Something else (what?)

I think if more bad new comes, it can maybe go under the trendline?
Or people see the bad news only let bitcoins suffer a little, and more people will invest in bitcoins?
I hope for the last but i know, people are still very sceptical vs bitcoin.
Im trying to get more friends in to it but they dont care about it yet.
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February 14, 2014, 02:14:14 PM
 #452

Btw. should I send the trendline points at the time of their calculation?

The current trend did not of course apply at any past time because they did not have all the data.
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February 14, 2014, 02:30:50 PM
 #453

please use log. base =2 for the graphs, it's almost impossible to differ values from 100 to 1000 on such scale.

see my example (with my own random assumptions for dec & jan since it's not published averages)
more lines  = better understanding

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February 14, 2014, 05:07:44 PM
 #454

Thank you Smiley

Next question is - what will happen next?

A) Bounce from the trendline towards new highs
B) Something else (what?)

B) If it follows the pattern from earlier bumps it will stabilize and we will have a period of perhaps six months or so with little movement and then another giant bumb.

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February 18, 2014, 09:47:31 PM
 #455

I've plotted the new trendline with typical daily price for Bitstamp and MtGox starting from 2012.


EDIT: update graph
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February 19, 2014, 05:35:51 AM
 #456

I've plotted the new trendline with typical daily price for Bitstamp and MtGox starting from 2012.

thanks. can you change log. base for = 2 ?
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February 19, 2014, 08:15:09 AM
 #457

I've plotted the new trendline with typical daily price for Bitstamp and MtGox starting from 2012.

thanks. can you change log. base for = 2 ?

The graph has lines for 2, 3, ..., 9, 10, 20, ..., 90, 100, 200, ..., 900, 1000, 2000, ..., 9000, 10000.

Why do you need base 2?
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February 19, 2014, 12:49:19 PM
 #458

I've plotted the new trendline with typical daily price for Bitstamp and MtGox starting from 2012.

thanks. can you change log. base for = 2 ?

The graph has lines for 2, 3, ..., 9, 10, 20, ..., 90, 100, 200, ..., 900, 1000, 2000, ..., 9000, 10000.

Why do you need base 2?

cause it's hard to manually count this 100,200,300...
I mean it's not hard but it's not handy.

not user friendly
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February 19, 2014, 02:50:43 PM
 #459

I've plotted the new trendline with typical daily price for Bitstamp and MtGox starting from 2012.

thanks. can you change log. base for = 2 ?

The graph has lines for 2, 3, ..., 9, 10, 20, ..., 90, 100, 200, ..., 900, 1000, 2000, ..., 9000, 10000.

Why do you need base 2?

cause it's hard to manually count this 100,200,300...
I mean it's not hard but it's not handy.

not user friendly

I'm also a fan of base 2 log plots. I think it's the most practical for easily reading off precise amounts on a log plot.
tonico
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February 20, 2014, 10:23:55 AM
 #460

I've plotted the new trendline with typical daily price for Bitstamp and MtGox starting from 2012.

thanks. can you change log. base for = 2 ?

The graph has lines for 2, 3, ..., 9, 10, 20, ..., 90, 100, 200, ..., 900, 1000, 2000, ..., 9000, 10000.

Why do you need base 2?

cause it's hard to manually count this 100,200,300...
I mean it's not hard but it's not handy.

not user friendly

I'm also a fan of base 2 log plots. I think it's the most practical for easily reading off precise amounts on a log plot.

I prefer the log10 grid. Anyways, here is the same version with a log2 grid: http://i.imgur.com/JeTTfUQ.png
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