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Author Topic: Monthly average USD/bitcoin price & trend  (Read 117339 times)
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AnonyMint
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November 15, 2013, 09:26:32 PM
 #181

Occam's razor is a fuzzy heuristic not a perfect truth, yet some of his summary is not what I think (and seems too complex to me also to be possible) and some of his summary is only what I conjectured not what I stated as fact. For example, I never postulated that Bitcoin was created by inept lower ranks of the elite such as central banks, as that would be too unlikely to organize and I conjecture Bitcoin was instead created with one of many results being destruction of the nation-state central banks (since the goal is to replace them with one-world central bank!)

One thing we can conclude factually beyond any doubt is that coin rewards decline asymptotically to <1% by 2033 and <0.2% by 2040 and so on. And that FACT allows a game theory that can not be denied as follows.

After 2033 (<1%) and 2040 (<0.2%), then coin rewards for Bitcoin diminish asymptotically towards 0. Thus there is no funding for miners, if a cartel of miners does the well-known "transactions withholding attack".

In other words, Amazon.com supplies a downloadable or online client (that merchants all over the web adopt because Amazon pays them to) and Amazon might even juice up the offer with 0% tx fees (to entice more transactions to them), then they do not forward these transactions to other independent miners who are not part of their cartel. Thus those other miners do not get sufficient funding to pay their electricity and hardware amortization costs.

This is just one way that Bitcoin can be taken over by cartels. And actually Satoshi wrote about this and thought this was fine. And the core devs know this too and think it is fine.

There a new attack released this month. Read that linked post, I am not against Bitcoin, I may even buy some.

So once Bitcoin is in the hands of cartels, then the government can regulate the cartels. So then they can easily change the protocol to anything they want.

If you believe in the theory that network effects are insurmountable, then it would be too late at that time to launch an altcoin (or fork Bitcoin) to compete.

Until someone presents another game theory that shows how cartels won't do what they always do when a power vacuum opportunity is presented to them, then I conclude these are facts and the deniers are deluding themselves.

I think I have differentiated in my writing between my conjecture and facts. The above appears to be a fact.

It isn't amazing when readers confuse facts and fiction and then attribute only the fiction to the writer. That is the nature of public discourse in forums. Sound bites and groupthink work well. Whereas the exchange of critical thinking gets muddled across the wire. Sorry I don't have the time to get the communication perfect. I would rather write software code, since my past experience is my software speaks much louder in the market place than my forum discussions.

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November 15, 2013, 10:18:06 PM
 #182

How does one buy Bitcoin in size with the lowest spread, fees, hassle and risk if anonymity is not the objective? And how do I do this while residing in a third world country where I can't prove residence

try third-world country exchanges, like btc-e.com, wire funds to the exchange, buy coins, done (you can travel there and open a local bank account, but that would be needed only if you want to withdraw). should not really be hard or expensive (I'd estimate a 2-3% overhead on conversion and transactions).

Thanks. Looks like they are based in Bulgaria. Do you think I can trust them with $20,000 at one time?

I didn't try to sign up yet. Do you know if they require any KYC bullshit from Americans or is a wire to their bank account sufficient to fund and proceed to trading?

They wire back out internationally?

I don't see any details in their FAQs about this, so it causes me to doubt the quality of this operation. Very limited documentation. Their news has an article about egopay. I don't want the uncertainty of another party between me and them. Direct international wires is what I want.


BTC-e website states, that their bank may require some documentation to process wires.
Regarding, egopay and other options you will end up paying 3 to 5% or more in comissionsions alone.
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November 16, 2013, 01:17:30 AM
 #183

BTC-e website states, that their bank may require some documentation to process wires.
Regarding, egopay and other options you will end up paying 3 to 5% or more in comissionsions alone.

Thanks. Sounds too risky for me. And now especially for Americans dealing with foreign banks given the FATCA requirements. If someone won't sell to me directly, I will have to stand on the sidelines.

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November 16, 2013, 10:07:41 AM
 #184

Fun thread to read though. I'll say this though, with regards to price prediction of BTC:

We are witnessing price discovery (As Max Keiser has continually pointed out). And using traditional stock analysis tools (until we have more data) is dangerous. (But, the data is accruing and I can't argue with what has been presented in this thread with prices of $10,000 in a relatively short time span.) But let's look at what we are analyzing. BTC is not a stock (exclusively). Lets try to list what it is and see why traditional forms of analysis are lacking.

BTC is:

A stock (in the network, in a sense)
A currency
A payment protocol
A commodity
An asset
A protocol (And this is where things get scary)
Disruption in ways we can't foresee.
ETC. (Please add to this list)

A protocol that most likely can't be made illegal. And this protocol implements a blockchain. And this blockchain can be used for a host of other functions:
Ownership tracking (e.g. stocks, property, etc.), Voting, etc.

So, when we use traditional stock analysis tools to look at BTC, we must remember that BTC is not JUST a stock, currency, etc. I laugh when I hear "MACD is crossing. Things looking overbought." That often held true, but we can see that rules are being broken and then further defined.

Bill gates said it well (but he was saying what Eric Schmidt had already said): "I think it's a technical tour de force, but that's an area where governments are gonna maintain a dominant role." - As BTC grows, we will see the government, banks, insititutional structures perhaps attack it. Depends on if it saves us and nullifies them. And BTC can (and probably is) being used as a form of economic warfar. The US brought down The Soviet Union in large part by bringing in counterfeit Rubles. China does not like owning so many inflated dollars and further seeing it as the world currency. See where I am going with this?

And as my signature states, BTC is so much more:
Quote
BTC = Black Swan. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain: 1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology 2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities) 3. The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs. BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.

We are dealing with something who's force we may not see again in our lifetimes. And that is strange, for I thought the Internet was that and now I'm not so sure which is more Disruptive in the grand scale of things...

Enjoy the ride and congrats on taking part in the largest social experiment of all time (by the people and for the people),

Its About Sharing

 

BTC = Black Swan.
BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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November 18, 2013, 02:42:41 PM
 #185

We are dealing with something who's force we may not see again in our lifetimes. And that is strange, for I thought the Internet was that and now I'm not so sure which is more Disruptive in the grand scale of things...
Comparing disruption is not precisely clear - in my opinion the Internet conceptually subsumes Bitcoin.

I entirely agree with your appraisal of the phenomenon, and recall the similar enthusiasm that drove bitcoin prices from $1 to $32 in a few months back in the spring of 2011 - when there was hardly any concrete evidence of what would subsequently happen in today's underlying bitcoin economy.
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November 18, 2013, 07:22:53 PM
 #186

Very intriguing to find that original chart which seems to obey the real life BTC trend up to this point! When analyzing whether the current bubbly situation is overbought and how much, it should be emphasized once again that the trend rises rapidly causing misperception in the theoretical "equilibrium value" at any point in future.



Not more than a couple of weeks ago we broke the trendline uphill at $300 and now are about double the theoritical equilibrium target. However with the target rising fast it will reach $700 by Feb-March 2014 after which anything below that is undervalued.

It could be that BTC remains above the trendline for long, like it did for 17 months in late 2010 gaining a maximum of 80x ($32) the trend breakpoint ($0.4) before declining back below trend at $5 (12x break above line). [Approximate figures taken from the chart, don't unfortunately have quick access to real value points]

Just for the shits, extrapolated to the current situation a similar bubble would mean hitting $24000 /coin before crashing back to trend at $3600 in April 2015. But I suspect this time the oscillation down will likely happen much sooner as it did in May this year.

The only valid trading advice, like rpietila and others have said many times is BUY BELOW TRENDLINE and only add to your coins before hitting your final target (should be in the $10k's or $100k's). Attempting to trade coins before that almost certainly destines you to complete failure in obtaining back the coins you sold and thought you'd soon buy back cheaper. I witnessed that once again today by burning my Bitfinex winnings of the past week to where I would think the trend would turn and correct at $600. A small price to pay at this stage for the realization that thou shalt not attempt margin trading against the trend with your precious coins Undecided.


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November 18, 2013, 08:15:21 PM
 #187

It could be that BTC remains above the trendline for long, like it did for 17 months in late 2010 gaining a maximum of 80x ($32) the trend breakpoint ($0.4) before declining back below trend at $5 (12x break above line). [Approximate figures taken from the chart, don't unfortunately have quick access to real value points]

I suspect that the bigger the pool of btc holders, the harder it is for the spot price to stay far from the trend line for as long. So over time the spot price line will tend to straighten and follow the trend line more closely.

The other thing that occurs to me is that the price can still crash and stay higher than the trend line, if it started far enough above it.

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November 18, 2013, 08:23:09 PM
 #188

excellent post

Excellent post! I am interested in seeing what the November average turns out to be, and how it affects the trendline and trendtargets.
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November 18, 2013, 08:47:25 PM
 #189

before hitting your final target (should be in the $10k's or $100k's)

Agreed of course on the undeniable math in your post. And good to see that you realize there must be a final target, and a permanent crash from the trendline.

However, one thing apparently all of you are not factoring in your analysis, is that none of that nor diversification can likely help you.

Imagine what happens when this 21st century tulip mania ponzi scheme crashes.

This will make Bernie Madoff look like a flea an elephant's arse.

Not $1 billion, but $1 trillion of private investors' wealth will go poof.

So of course the government will be asked to clawback all the gains from those who profited from the ponzi scheme.

And of course you will end up paying taxes on your gains, even after they confiscate them from you.

YOU WILL END UP IN JAIL because you won't be able to pay the taxes after they confiscate the "ill gotten ponzi scheme gains", if you invest and profit on Bitcoin. Governments don't act rationally towards people that are hated by society. There will be much jealously and anger towards those who profited on BitCON.

The taxes will be raised also (retroactive net worth taxes will come for Europeans), but that is besides the point.

Do you really think you can profit for doing nothing? You have added nothing to society and are only stealing from it. I will be laughing at you as you go to jail. You deserve it.

Mark my word.

Now I am really done here.

Have fun flaming me. I will not reply again.

Quote
As a Treasury official said some decade ago about the time he also said, "we will burn the fingers of the goldbugs up to their armpits", it has always been the plan to go after the millionaires and steal back all their gains to the elite (skip to 36:35 min of the linked video) who run the fiat system. And Bitcoin is an amazingly great tracking tool to aid them in this coming global confiscation via taxation of the rich process.

Former (Jewish?) IRS Commissioner and the man who wrote much of the tax code law, said to (Jew) Aaron Russo (producer of Bette Midler, The Rose, Trading Places, etc) in Ashkenazi Jewish Yiddish language, "nothing will help you". Skip to the 37 min point in the linked video.

The elite know exactly what they are doing by launching Bitcoin via the fictitious anonymous identity "Satoshi".

Nick Rockefeller told Aaron Russo what the goal is.

I think I remember now that Larry Summers is the "former Treasury official" who said, "we will burn the fingers of the goldbugs up to their armpits". I know there was a reason I don't trust him, and I think that was it. Now he has really shown his true colors (see my prior post).

If you've read all my posts over the past 2 weeks (which you can do by clicking my name...sorry it is a lot to wade through), then you will know that Bitcoin is very much controllable by the USA government. I outlined exactly how they can do it with the Transactions Withholding Attack thread. Also they can with AML, and KYC controls plus the coming FATCA. Also we now have the selfish-mining attack, which I explained could in theory be combined with the share-withholding-attack. Numerous, numerous vectors for how this caves into a 666 system.

Weep, while you can.

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November 18, 2013, 09:55:11 PM
 #190

Do you really think you can profit for doing nothing? You have added nothing to society and are only stealing from it. I will be laughing at you as you go to jail. You deserve it.

Sir, it would be beneficial for you to acknowledge that under mental pressure even the brightest of us can go bonkers and grow sour, like the OP and some others of us can witness from personal experience. But happily there is a simple remedy; Take a break from Bitcoin and after some months come back refreshed.

There's no need to worry about every one of us bitcoin holders. You will have your drama, yes, not all of us will be part of it however. Through our newly grown wealth we will either have come up with the means to circumvent the cusp of total slavery personally, or developed collaboration to mitigate or altogether avert the impending doom.

Quote
I will not reply again.
I think we all agree with you that you'd better stop spending your days writing what is - witty but - essentially unproductive crap on the fora. Please go to work and develop the altcoin that will save the world, the one supreme system for whose implementation I - and likely numerous others - have offered you assistance in private. But like we humans often inadvertently do, you procrastinate and always come back to only talk. Why don't you just walk the walk? It would be so much better!

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November 18, 2013, 11:43:46 PM
 #191

Despite my minds natural tendency to want to improve on better, and better - even when it is already amazing and life changing, I will follow Risto's (I now know your name Smiley) guidance and the wisdom in GCI's post and listen to the great speculator:

Quoted from the investment classic "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" written in the early 20th C by a famous speculator called Jesse Livermore:
Quote
“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine--that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”

Quote
"I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains they cannot sit tight. Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but also the intelligence and patience to sit tight. Disregarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations. In a bull market the game is to buy and hold until you believe the bull market is near its end."

Bitcoin has corrected my over-thinking behavior quite violently many times now over the last couple of years. Hard as it is, "sitting" is my current spiritual discipline and bitcoin practice.


Edit = Addendum: I was pm'd and reminded that Livermore died broke by suicide. That does take a little of the shine off the quotes  Wink... but you get the point.
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November 19, 2013, 02:09:16 PM
 #192

This script calulates rpietila's trendline for any given date >= 2009-01. I hope it works as expected   Grin

Price for today:

    $ python -m btctrend
    336.00


Price for Christmas:

    $ python -m btctrend 2013-12-25
    430.83


Typical price 2014:

    $ python -m btctrend 2014
    1605.46


Code:
import argparse
from calendar import monthrange
from datetime import date, datetime

a = 0.092
b = -2.9124

def get_x(year, month=None, day=None):
    assert(2009 <= year)
    if month is None:
        assert(day is None)
        month = 6.5

    numof_months = (year - 2009) * 12 + month

    if day is None:
        return numof_months

    numof_days = monthrange(year, month)[1]
    return numof_months + (day - 0.5) / numof_days - 0.5

def price(dt):
    x = get_x(*dt)
    return 10 ** (a * x + b)

def date_tuple(str):
    month, day = None, None
    try:
        dt = datetime.strptime(str, '%Y-%m-%d')
        year, month, day = dt.year, dt.month, dt.day
    except ValueError:
        try:
            dt = datetime.strptime(str, '%Y-%m')
            year, month = dt.year, dt.month
        except ValueError:
            dt = datetime.strptime(str, '%Y')
            year = dt.year
    return year, month, day

def main():
    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser()
    parser.add_argument('date', type=date_tuple, nargs='?',
                        help='YYYY-MM-DD or YYYY-MM or YYYY')
    args = parser.parse_args()
    if args.date is None:
        dt = date.today()
        args.date = (dt.year, dt.month, dt.day)
    print '{:.2f}'.format(price(args.date))

if __name__ == '__main__':
    main()
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November 19, 2013, 04:05:26 PM
 #193


The only valid trading advice, like rpietila and others have said many times is BUY BELOW TRENDLINE and only add to your coins before hitting your final target (should be in the $10k's or $100k's).


There is clearly a higher risk of short term loss, but even when the price is above the trendline, the chart suggests this is still more often a better time to buy than waiting for prices to fall below trend.
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November 19, 2013, 05:10:11 PM
 #194

the chart suggests this is still more often a better time to buy than waiting for prices to fall below trend.
That's true. So you should buy in any case at this point in time and in the near future, no matter where the spot is compared to the trendline. With the discretion of course that if the trendline has been exceeded greatly the odds are there will be a drawback. The data on how much "exceeding greatly" means, is sparse, but the 80x breakpoint figure is better than nothing to have handy when making decisions. However deferring your buying in a bull market situation like now you risk never getting in, or getting in at a very high price at the wrong time, making you pretty frustrated for the 6-12 month stagnant breathing periods that are likely to occur.

This script calulates rpietila's trendline for any given date >= 2009-01. I hope it works as expected   Grin
Nice, thanks! I'm not using it now, because the trendline values look so lame compared to the current spot. To avoid the depressing feelings arising from the fact that we must wait 3 to 4 months before the trendline reaches the current spot prices, I'm inclined to start drooling around with your script early next year Smiley

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November 19, 2013, 05:56:00 PM
 #195

This script calulates rpietila's trendline for any given date >= 2009-01. I hope it works as expected   Grin

I made a minor tweak to make this compatible with python 2.6 and earlier. (printf needs a positional argument specified explicitly ('{0}' rather than '{}'))

Code:
import argparse
from calendar import monthrange
from datetime import date, datetime

a = 0.092
b = -2.9124

def get_x(year, month=None, day=None):
    assert(2009 <= year)
    if month is None:
        assert(day is None)
        month = 6.5

    numof_months = (year - 2009) * 12 + month

    if day is None:
        return numof_months

    numof_days = monthrange(year, month)[1]
    return numof_months + (day - 0.5) / numof_days - 0.5

def price(dt):
    x = get_x(*dt)
    return 10 ** (a * x + b)

def date_tuple(str):
    month, day = None, None
    try:
        dt = datetime.strptime(str, '%Y-%m-%d')
        year, month, day = dt.year, dt.month, dt.day
    except ValueError:
        try:
            dt = datetime.strptime(str, '%Y-%m')
            year, month = dt.year, dt.month
        except ValueError:
            dt = datetime.strptime(str, '%Y')
            year = dt.year
    return year, month, day

def main():
    parser = argparse.ArgumentParser()
    parser.add_argument('date', type=date_tuple, nargs='?',
                        help='YYYY-MM-DD or YYYY-MM or YYYY')
    args = parser.parse_args()
    if args.date is None:
        dt = date.today()
        args.date = (dt.year, dt.month, dt.day)
    print '{0:.2f}'.format(price(args.date))

if __name__ == '__main__':
    main()
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November 19, 2013, 07:27:41 PM
 #196

Just to inject some sanity into this discussion and take things back to basics, the notion of producing a simple trendline projecting future prices is 100% grounded in the technicals (and this analysis while interesting is basically the most primitive technical analysis possible). It's important to also consider the fact that technical analysis is not a crystal ball for any kind of long-term predictions, it's a tool for the trader to react to the graph and hopefully execute the correct trade.

The moment it becomes apparent that the Bitcoin price is driven more by fundamentals, this entire mode of analysis goes out the window. There is a very compelling argument right now that the recent price movement is driven by fundamentals because of China's recent en masse entry to the buyers market.

Fitting to a trendline has no relationship to these fundamentals, and if we are to believe that there is something technologically-transformative or revolutionary about Bitcoin, then the fundamentals are the dominant factor in driving long-term pricing. This is not pork bellies, barrels of oil, or frozen concentrated orange juice.
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Oy Vey!!


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November 19, 2013, 08:10:41 PM
 #197

Please share these ideas here for noobs
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=328203.0
(some of which are probably future power players, since Bitcoin is booming right now and big people are probably coming in)

&
Don't forget Bitcoin day:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=329422.0

My Negative Rating is For Bringing a Dead Thread Back to Life, Just BTW. Click The Link To See For Yourself.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=trust;u=155011
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November 19, 2013, 09:14:49 PM
 #198

There is a very compelling argument right now that the recent price movement is driven by fundamentals because of China's recent en masse entry to the buyers market.

Fitting to a trendline has no relationship to these fundamentals, and if we are to believe that there is something technologically-transformative or revolutionary about Bitcoin, then the fundamentals are the dominant factor in driving long-term pricing. This is not pork bellies, barrels of oil, or frozen concentrated orange juice.

I understand bitcoin speculation fundamentals as per your example. Clearly the price is driven upwards at this point by exponentially increasing numbers of speculators. See my logistic model of speculator adoption of bitcoin - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=322058.msg3549092#msg3549092

And I distinguish the fundamentals of the underlying bitcoin economy as very well presented by http://coinometrics.com/bitcoin/btix .

Regression fitting and other sorts of technical analysis abstract out the underlying phenomena and simply model the behavior of informed and uninformed traders. Technical analysis is good at predicting bitcoin price bubbles and for giving us the best possible predictions about future bitcoin valuations.
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November 19, 2013, 09:36:37 PM
 #199

Fitting to a trendline has no relationship to these fundamentals
I disagree. Risto specifically developed the trendline & formula to support the fundamentals in mind, ie. $300k USD/BTC for a fair price in the position of Bitcoin being a major facilitator of trade worldwide. Thus, the fitting has been rigged to match these perceived fundamentals. Given other projections, the trendline could be adjusted with an altered or altogether different formula, still seeming to "match perfectly" with the secular trend with constant deviations from the trendline.

Thus, it all is to a large degree sleight of mind. The only aspect that is obvious for everyone is the exponential uphill. How steep in the big picture is anyone's guess. I consider Risto's version rather solid compromise, with a beautiful connection and parables to the laws of nature that govern this world (can't remember how or through whose arguments I came to this conclusion).

On a more esoteric angle, I personally believe the order and laws behind all natural phenomena can be successfully extrapolated to macro environments like collective valuation of financial instruments. I'm no specialist in TA but am inclined to think that's the particular point why Technical Analysis works.

Bitcoin price is a result of natural phenomena consisting of numerous layers of invisible laws of large numbers governing the average distribution of stuff. As such, the laws add up to a sort of very complex interference pattern that reveals a virtual image to an outside observer. A bit like Moire pattern:



See the whiteish - convex cylinder that comes up in the middle of the two large rings. That's a Moire pattern. If you examine it, it's not drawn anywhere and you will have to conclude it appears spontaneously, more likely unintended. Yet it's a very specific form arising out of the interaction of the properties of the two large red-blue rings.

If a guy has found such a pattern in Bitcoin price and made it visible from all the noise, and if that even somehow matches a long history up to this point, I'm going to listen to him very closely.

Remember; As above, so below.

AnonyMint
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November 19, 2013, 09:41:56 PM
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If a guy has found such a pattern in Bitcoin price and made it visible from all the noise, and if that even somehow matches a long history up to this point, I'm going to listen to him very closely.

OMG, the dopamine spikes from the get-rich-quick-fever are running so high that the new religion is finding information in aliasing error[1].

[1] Shannon-Nyquist Sampling Theorem

Noting than Shannon defined information content for us with his work on Shannon entropy.

Sorry just had to reply to that one Wink It is too funny (for a math and physics nerd like me).

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