Gold: I smell a trap

[MatthewLM]

I skimmed through the website. You say interest rates in the US will definitely only go up from here and at the same time it is a good time to buy a house?... you mean not as an investment but because mortgages are cheap and so it's good if you want to be a home-owner? Well, they are also much harder to get, no?

[1714479582]

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[1714479582]

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[1714479582]

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[cypherdoc]

I skimmed through the website. You say interest rates in the US will definitely only go up from here and at the same time it is a good time to buy a house?... you mean not as an investment but because mortgages are cheap and so it's good if you want to be a home-owner? Well, they are also much harder to get, no?

well nothing is definite, Matthew.  but i do think interest rates look to me to have bottomed, at least for awhile, as the sovereign debt selloff is leaking into UST's as we speak.  this is a great website to check mortgage rates:    http://www.bankrate.com/funnel/graph/ http://www.bankrate.com/funnel/graph/

as to whether or not its a good time to buy a house, thats debatable.  there is data suggesting we've hit a bottom but alot depends on your outlook of where we're heading as a nation in the long term and there are plenty of conflicting winds on that.

[cypherdoc]

I skimmed through the website. You say interest rates in the US will definitely only go up from here and at the same time it is a good time to buy a house?... you mean not as an investment but because mortgages are cheap and so it's good if you want to be a home-owner? Well, they are also much harder to get, no?

Matthew, you inspired me to start a Daily Blog on my site as Melbustus suggested.  take a look if you get a chance.

[cypherdoc]

I skimmed through the website. You say interest rates in the US will definitely only go up from here and at the same time it is a good time to buy a house?... you mean not as an investment but because mortgages are cheap and so it's good if you want to be a home-owner? Well, they are also much harder to get, no?

Matthew: take a look at this.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/nahb-builder-confidence-index-increases.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29

i wouldn't have said it a month ago but quite honestly that looks like a bottoming formation to me.

[cypherdoc]

as the stock mkt moves into the green, the cognitive dissonance is thunderous.

you heard it here first.  and it was over a month ago.

[Otoh]

...my personal acct is up 65% since that date and i have a long career of making consistently good calls.  no way to prove that though w/o turning over all my records...

I think trading records would go a long way. It would show that not only are you accurate with respect to your macro view, but that you can, and do, translate that into actionable trades. You can anonymize your records, only show percentages, whatever, but having such data would probably make the site far more interesting to people from the start.

Of course, you'd have people wondering "if this is for real, why is this guy letting me coat-tail his trades for $24/mo", but I think you can probably find reasonable ways to answer that.

Financial Risk Analytics
Strategic Investing for Turbulent Times
1KtfT5XrjC9MFpgDHDrGkD446GZx8J5BeT

btw the FRA link in your sig is a 404 - Page Not Found, you might want to fix that

http://financialriskanalytics.weebly.com/forum.html#/

Edit...

'We monitor financial markets minute by minute throughout the investing day to protect you against any sudden surprises in financial conditions.

We will also introduce you to the new and exciting world of Bitcoin, a revolutionary digital currency of the future that has the potential to change the world.'  

removed repetitions of 'also' & 'new ...' for you

[cypherdoc]

i've taken down the Trading Forum for lack of interest and am no longer offering subscriptions.  in retrospect, melbustus was correct in that this Forum didn't translate well to profit altho i probably should've given it more time.

i've also taken down the About Us page since its now not necessary and also eliminated the self promotional stuff.  FRA has now become a pure Daily Blog where i can post my thoughts and ideas.

its much better this way in that there is no pressure to perform from an investment advice perspective when you're accepting ppl's money.  investing is a highly personal process and you can't make a horse drink even after you've lead him to the water of a perfect investment.

the good news is that the readership HAS translated well and i'm getting over 500+ unique ip visitors per day and more in page views now in just the week that i've opened the site.  this is plenty enough validation for my new project as i really do this more out of passion and a dedication to finance, investment, and Bitcoin.  it also allows me to post my thoughts freely w/o getting spammed by every flamer here on this forum.

i did put up a Donate page for anyone caring to support my efforts.

thanks for following and i'll continue to work hard!

[cypherdoc]

over 600 viewers per day!  thanks.

[cypherdoc]

there's absolutely no way i can maintain 2 of these, lol.

[molecular]

go way you nasty thread you, let go of me!

[cypherdoc]

How the heck did it get unlocked?

[miscreanity]

Just goes to prove you can't keep gold down

[johnyj]

Sadly several of my recent shorts are stopped out breakeven, seems gold still have some momentum, waiting for China's mass production come in second half year

There might be a problem. Just like BTC, what if chinese just mine the gold and keep them? With each price raise, they mine more gold and store them in the reserve, and their spending is by loan backed by these gold/silver reserve, so the actual availability of gold/silver is not getting higher, the price will go further up. Then, after FED begin to tighten, they can not get loan and try to sell gold/silver, then there will be a huge crash due to less liquidity

From this view, I tend to change towards long side in the coming years, at least until FED tightens

[cypherdoc]

Sadly several of my recent shorts are stopped out breakeven, seems gold still have some momentum, waiting for China's mass production come in second half year

There might be a problem. Just like BTC, what if chinese just mine the gold and keep them? With each price raise, they mine more gold and store them in the reserve, and their spending is by loan backed by these gold/silver reserve, so the actual availability of gold/silver is not getting higher, the price will go further up. Then, after FED begin to tighten, they can not get loan and try to sell gold/silver, then there will be a huge crash due to less liquidity

From this view, I tend to change towards long side in the coming years, at least until FED tightens

it won't take that long.

[johnyj]

Sadly several of my recent shorts are stopped out breakeven, seems gold still have some momentum, waiting for China's mass production come in second half year

There might be a problem. Just like BTC, what if chinese just mine the gold and keep them? With each price raise, they mine more gold and store them in the reserve, and their spending is by loan backed by these gold/silver reserve, so the actual availability of gold/silver is not getting higher, the price will go further up. Then, after FED begin to tighten, they can not get loan and try to sell gold/silver, then there will be a huge crash due to less liquidity

From this view, I tend to change towards long side in the coming years, at least until FED tightens

it won't take that long.

True, although FED promised an extremely lose policy until 2014, it will face inflation pressure very soon

[cypherdoc]

Sadly several of my recent shorts are stopped out breakeven, seems gold still have some momentum, waiting for China's mass production come in second half year

There might be a problem. Just like BTC, what if chinese just mine the gold and keep them? With each price raise, they mine more gold and store them in the reserve, and their spending is by loan backed by these gold/silver reserve, so the actual availability of gold/silver is not getting higher, the price will go further up. Then, after FED begin to tighten, they can not get loan and try to sell gold/silver, then there will be a huge crash due to less liquidity

From this view, I tend to change towards long side in the coming years, at least until FED tightens

it won't take that long.

True, although FED promised an extremely lose policy until 2014, it will face inflation pressure very soon

it doesn't matter what they promised.

[molecular]

it doesn't matter what they promised.

oh no, but you can trust them this time, I'm sure! Look at Bernankes face, don't you just trust this guy instinctively?

He's even in the blockchain, as you probably know (strings -n 20 blk0001.dat):

:'::.:::::.:::.::.:
: :.: ' ' ' ' : :':
:.:     _.__    '.:
:   _,^"   "^x,   :
'  x7'        `4,
 XX7            4XX
 XX              XX
 Xl ,xxx,   ,xxx,XX
( ' _,+o, | ,o+,"
 4   "-^' X "^-'" 7
 l,     ( ))     ,X
 :Xx,_ ,xXXXxx,_,XX
  4XXiX'-___-`XXXX'
   4XXi,_   _iXX7'
  , `4XXXXXXXXX^ _,
  Xx,  ""^^^XX7,xX
W,"4WWx,_ _,XxWWX7'
Xwi, "4WW7""4WW7',W
TXXWw, ^7 Xk 47 ,WH
:TXXXWw,_ "), ,wWT:
::TTXXWWW lXl WWT:

[cypherdoc]

it doesn't matter what they promised.

oh no, but you can trust them this time, I'm sure! Look at Bernankes face, don't you just trust this guy instinctively?

He's even in the blockchain, as you probably know (strings -n 20 blk0001.dat):

:'::.:::::.:::.::.:
: :.: ' ' ' ' : :':
:.:     _.__    '.:
:   _,^"   "^x,   :
'  x7'        `4,
 XX7            4XX
 XX              XX
 Xl ,xxx,   ,xxx,XX
( ' _,+o, | ,o+,"
 4   "-^' X "^-'" 7
 l,     ( ))     ,X
 :Xx,_ ,xXXXxx,_,XX
  4XXiX'-___-`XXXX'
   4XXi,_   _iXX7'
  , `4XXXXXXXXX^ _,
  Xx,  ""^^^XX7,xX
W,"4WWx,_ _,XxWWX7'
Xwi, "4WW7""4WW7',W
TXXWw, ^7 Xk 47 ,WH
:TXXXWw,_ "), ,wWT:
::TTXXWWW lXl WWT:

no, i didn't know that.  lol!

[marcus_of_augustus]

watching 

[molecular]

watching 

I better post too, lol!

Lol