Bitcoin Forum
December 09, 2016, 09:37:52 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.13.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 [35] 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Gold: I smell a trap  (Read 78537 times)
Bitcoin_Silver_Supply
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 259



View Profile
September 22, 2011, 06:20:06 PM
 #681

Lots of fireworks today. I'm still astounded that the market is running to paper dollars after the fed announces horrible economic news and yet another attempt to re-inflate the bubble but I guess that's how markets are today. I'm considering jumping on some silver buys soon as I'm not quite so bearish on predictions of $10 silver in our imminent future.
1481319472
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481319472

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481319472
Reply with quote  #2

1481319472
Report to moderator
1481319472
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481319472

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481319472
Reply with quote  #2

1481319472
Report to moderator
1481319472
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481319472

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481319472
Reply with quote  #2

1481319472
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1481319472
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481319472

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481319472
Reply with quote  #2

1481319472
Report to moderator
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
September 22, 2011, 06:45:35 PM
 #682

Lots of fireworks today. I'm still astounded that the market is running to paper dollars after the fed announces horrible economic news and yet another attempt to re-inflate the bubble but I guess that's how markets are today. I'm considering jumping on some silver buys soon as I'm not quite so bearish on predictions of $10 silver in our imminent future.

if you read my posts, the running is forced.
MatthewLM
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1092



View Profile WWW
September 22, 2011, 06:55:59 PM
 #683

We can get prepared to collect silver and gold coins below 10$ and 1000$ respectively.

If that is the physical price then you wouldn't be able to get any at that ridiculously low price. If you could find some gold and silver for that price, it would be a steal.

Quote
If a little over 5% of those contracts are delivery requests, the COMEX would be wiped out. Normally, plenty of contracts close before then, but with recent action many longs are staying and requesting delivery. It wouldn't be surprising at this point to see 20-30% stand for delivery, which is why reducing the 300k open interest is so critical.

Where is there any information on how many futures contracts end up going to delivery? The majority of institutions that are short with gold futures buy the contracts back so they have no delivery obligations for gold they don't have: That's how the futures manipulation works isn't it?

People buy gold futures (and futures based securities) thinking it's the same as physical gold which is silly. It's hard to find information that shows the extent of phony paper vs real gold, do you have any good sources of information miscreanity?

It's not just futures, it's all kinds of securities that are gold "equivalents" but have only a fraction of gold supporting it.

Bitcoin Extra Wallet | Peercoin Android Wallet
BTC: 1D5A1q5d192j5gYuWiP3CSE5fcaaZxe6E9  PPC: PH7fVn1Xs7nkUFmdwCX2ZRYfLPCSwGxAq9
deepceleron
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1470



View Profile WWW
September 22, 2011, 09:52:26 PM
 #684

Jan 2, 1980: "There's no limit in sight"
Jan 23, 1980: "It was inevitable"

Gold peaked at over $800 in 1980 dollars, and was down to $250 by 2000.


miscreanity
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1078


View Profile
September 22, 2011, 10:14:43 PM
 #685


FTA (emphasis mine):

Quote from: Carl Swenlin
Specifically the chart below shows an Adam & Eve double top. The first top is sharp and spiky, and the second is more rounded, depicting a labored attempt to reach the previous highs.

Gold is in a bull market, so bearish formations are less likely to execute; however, the parabolic rise seen on the monthly bar chart below is strong evidence that a correction is necessary -- a vertical ascent is not sustainable

A typical resolution for a parabolic ascent is a total collapse back down to the level of the basing pattern that preceded it, but, given the fundamentals supporting gold, I think other options are more likely. A healthy correction like the one in 2008 is an outcome that would satisfy the need to stunt the vertical advance. Another outcome would be a high-level consolidation, which is where prices move into a trading range, in this case say, between 1600 and 1900 over a period of years, but, again, I think the fundamentals argue against that.

Bottom Line: I wouldn't dare say that gold can't continue higher, but the recent vertical movement of gold cries out for a correction to digest the advance. The recent formation of a double top gives us hope that a correction is beginning.

Obviously, no market can go straight up for a sustained period. As pointed out, the gap below $1,680 needs to be backed and filled. The move wasn't quite vertical, but it was approaching a runaway breakout. It's been consolidating approximately between $1,740 and $1,880 since the August low. A genuine correction should involve the aforementioned gap being filled.

With the double-top formation, the trailing edge is as important as the leading edge. Yes, the second push up was labored, but the second push down was more so. In addition, consider what it took to actually push gold down - nearly global financial destruction that caused an indirect, forced liquidation. Instead of being decidedly thrown away as undesirable, gold was one of the only remaining positively-valued assets that was sold to provide escape from other failing positions.

Major double-tops since 2001 have exhibited the weak trailing edge to a forced liquidation, targeted at trading margins to trigger the squeeze. Physical is changing the game by gradually taking away that power.

The best bit from the site:

Quote from: Carl Swenlin
Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball.

That can't be reiterated enough, especially when fundamental ocean currents are moving in a different direction from the technical wind.

If that is the physical price then you wouldn't be able to get any at that ridiculously low price. If you could find some gold and silver for that price, it would be a steal.

This is critical - the separation of paper and physical pricing. The official numbers don't include premiums.

Very important is today's drop in silver: this is risking massive global demand for physical metal. The COMEX is already at risk of default in silver next month. Thus the vicious raid in silver and the additional round now, during illiquid market hours. With the price under the 200-dma, big players will notice on the daily/weekly closing. When they buy, they buy for the next several months, so it will be a monstrous influx. The banks are hoping to squeeze enough current players out to prevent default on delivery or encourage cash settlements in lieu of physical delivery before the big players start piling in.

What's most dangerous about this is that if the paper price is pushed too far, the premiums won't follow at all and will even begin to go in the opposite direction because dealers simply can't source physical metal that inexpensively. They won't care if the market says silver is only worth $30 - if they'll only break even at $35, the premiums will rise above $5 to provide a profit. Now imagine the spot paper price at $10/oz in the same situation where a dealer can't remain profitable without charging $35/oz. Premiums will then be at least $25/oz. What is the real value of silver then? Will paper markets matter at all by that point?

In the above scenario, the banks lose all control and credibility. None of the established futures markets will be trusted and private contracts will have to be negotiated on a case-by-case basis among producers and merchants, dramatically slowing business down. Small timers won't even be able to participate without serious connections. Oh, sure there'll still be futures markets, but they'll be more like currency exchanges - trading nothing of real value, only shuffling numbers back and forth that buy fewer real assets by the month/week/day.

That leads to a resurgence of the monetary metals, and offers a potential large-scale proving ground for Bitcoin.

Where is there any information on how many futures contracts end up going to delivery? The majority of institutions that are short with gold futures buy the contracts back so they have no delivery obligations for gold they don't have: That's how the futures manipulation works isn't it?

People buy gold futures (and futures based securities) thinking it's the same as physical gold which is silly. It's hard to find information that shows the extent of phony paper vs real gold, do you have any good sources of information miscreanity?

It's not just futures, it's all kinds of securities that are gold "equivalents" but have only a fraction of gold supporting it.

CME Group daily reports, including deliveries. There are also trends in volume and open interest that can be contrasted with price action to provide direction as to whether buying or selling is occurring. Some of the information can also be calculated by using the disaggregated Commitment of Traders reports in coordination with trends from reported warehouse stocks. Harvey Organ does an excellent job of posting most of the information on a daily basis, although his site and written grammar are horrible.

The information in paper price data is not enough. Physical metal data as found from CME Group and the CFTC provide insight into the inner workings that cannot be gleaned from the price data.

People simply don't realize the difference between paper and physical yet. Banks have been playing on that ignorance and even encouraging it for decades. It's the basis of their power, so as more people realize how the game works, the less power the banks have. It's really just a matter of time; awareness accelerates as it spreads, which culminates in the real parabolic rise. Then the early adopters and quick learners to figure out the next base of power in the new system will take the reigns, but by then we'll all have sexbots and flying cars.

Even Bloomberg is starting to wise up:

Gold-Backed Dollar Puts ‘Fair Value’ at $10,000 an Ounce
miscreanity
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1078


View Profile
September 23, 2011, 01:37:37 AM
 #686

No time to rewrite everything about certain trading techniques. It's simple: beat the grass to startle the snakes.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
September 23, 2011, 02:34:09 AM
 #687

No time to rewrite everything about certain trading techniques. It's simple: beat the grass to startle the snakes.

i'm sorry but its so obvious you are so f*ckin disoriented over the last couple of weeks of losses i can't sit back and let you throw up all this shit.

you put up a stupid video of some day trader that yesterday talks about a 5 min candle trading technique that is DOWN 12% since he put it on yesterday and we're supposed to take what you have to say seriously?  you are seriously reaching, man.
bitcool
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1441

Live and enjoy experiments


View Profile
September 23, 2011, 03:43:31 AM
 #688

No time to rewrite everything about certain trading techniques. It's simple: beat the grass to startle the snakes.

i'm sorry but its so obvious you are so f*ckin disoriented over the last couple of weeks of losses i can't sit back and let you throw up all this shit.

you put up a stupid video of some day trader that yesterday talks about a 5 min candle trading technique that is DOWN 12% since he put it on yesterday and we're supposed to take what you have to say seriously?  you are seriously reaching, man.

The funny thing is, after "last couple of weeks of losses", gold price is roughly at where it was when this thread started:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24gold

If someone get disoriented by this child play, it's probably not your game.
netrin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322


FirstBits: 168Bc


View Profile
September 23, 2011, 04:42:36 AM
 #689



A steep dive, but well within the channel. Next stop $1600.

Greenlandic tupilak. Hand carved, traditional cursed bone figures. Sorry, polar bear, walrus and human remains not available for export.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
September 23, 2011, 01:09:09 PM
 #690



A steep dive, but well within the channel. Next stop $1600.

please explain to me how a logarithmic chart is a fair way to represent the longterm price movement other than for the purpose of suppressing the appearance of a parabolic blowoff?
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
September 23, 2011, 01:21:26 PM
 #691

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/black-friday-arrives-biggest-weekly-move-30-year-bond-black-monday

indeed.  plunging interest rates and falling gold is deflation at its worst.  oil down, Dow down.  all speculative capital will be going into the USD and UST's.

Transports, the Russell, the Financials, everything has broken support from early August.  Wave 3 has arrived.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
September 23, 2011, 02:13:30 PM
 #692

No time to rewrite everything about certain trading techniques. It's simple: beat the grass to startle the snakes.

i'm sorry but its so obvious you are so f*ckin disoriented over the last couple of weeks of losses i can't sit back and let you throw up all this shit.

you put up a stupid video of some day trader that yesterday talks about a 5 min candle trading technique that is DOWN 12% since he put it on yesterday and we're supposed to take what you have to say seriously?  you are seriously reaching, man.

The funny thing is, after "last couple of weeks of losses", gold price is roughly at where it was when this thread started:


no more.
netrin
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 322


FirstBits: 168Bc


View Profile
September 23, 2011, 04:17:34 PM
 #693


A steep dive, but well within the channel. Next stop $1600.
please explain to me how a logarithmic chart is a fair way to represent the longterm price movement other than for the purpose of suppressing the appearance of a parabolic blowoff?

"Logarithmic" because asset prices are geometric not arithmetic. "logterm", well no, I agree that was short term, but I don't have access to a long term log chart. The $1000 and $700 lines have already been discussed.



I 2006, III 2008, V 2011,2012?

Greenlandic tupilak. Hand carved, traditional cursed bone figures. Sorry, polar bear, walrus and human remains not available for export.
sgbett
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1330



View Profile
September 23, 2011, 04:23:46 PM
 #694


Obviously, no market can go straight up for a sustained period. As pointed out, the gap below $1,680 needs to be backed and filled. The move wasn't quite vertical, but it was approaching a runaway breakout. It's been consolidating approximately between $1,740 and $1,880 since the August low. A genuine correction should involve the aforementioned gap being filled.


Please excuse my naivety. I'm not much of a trader, more your old fashioned buy and hold fundamentals sort.

Is that what has happened today (i.e. we have filled the gap at 1680), if so then my fairly simplistic view as that I should be bullish again? Or broadly speaking are macroeconomic conditions such that we should expect new lows?

http://haschinabannedbitcoin.com
Full Node: http://46.51.193.129 (BU)
"A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution" - Satoshi Nakamoto
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
September 23, 2011, 04:44:25 PM
 #695


Obviously, no market can go straight up for a sustained period. As pointed out, the gap below $1,680 needs to be backed and filled. The move wasn't quite vertical, but it was approaching a runaway breakout. It's been consolidating approximately between $1,740 and $1,880 since the August low. A genuine correction should involve the aforementioned gap being filled.


Please excuse my naivety. I'm not much of a trader, more your old fashioned buy and hold fundamentals sort.

Is that what has happened today (i.e. we have filled the gap at 1680), if so then my fairly simplistic view as that I should be bullish again? Or broadly speaking are macroeconomic conditions such that we should expect new lows?


the gap has been backed, filled, and destroyed.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
September 23, 2011, 05:01:42 PM
 #696

note this 4y daily USD/JPY chart.  a huge descending wedge which inevitably breaks UP. 


cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
September 23, 2011, 05:08:28 PM
 #697

my ZSL up 27.23% just today.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
September 23, 2011, 05:28:29 PM
 #698

i'm sitting here looking at my trading screens and the entire rest of the stock mkt is barely trading as they watch the destruction of the gold/silver market.  they're trying to decide what this means.  what it means is the DEFLATION i have been warning about this entire thread. 

looks to me like the BOJ has entered the currency mkt and is pushing up the USD.  eventually stocks will resume the next leg down wave 3.
kjj
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1302



View Profile
September 23, 2011, 05:56:53 PM
 #699

WTI futures are down, but not as sharply as I'd have expected.  Hard to say if that market is immune, or just slow.

Silver is down 25% in 2 days, which is simply insane.  I picked some up towards the beginning of the year, and I figured it was my last chance to get in under $30/oz for a couple of years at least.  I wish this was coming a few months later in the year, I'd love to have all of my 2012 birthday and Christmas shopping done early at these prices.

p2pcoin: a USB/CD/PXE p2pool miner - 1N8ZXx2cuMzqBYSK72X4DAy1UdDbZQNPLf - todo
I routinely ignore posters with paid advertising in their sigs.  You should too.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
September 23, 2011, 06:32:08 PM
 #700

WTI futures are down, but not as sharply as I'd have expected.  Hard to say if that market is immune, or just slow.

Silver is down 25% in 2 days, which is simply insane.  I picked some up towards the beginning of the year, and I figured it was my last chance to get in under $30/oz for a couple of years at least.  I wish this was coming a few months later in the year, I'd love to have all of my 2012 birthday and Christmas shopping done early at these prices.

if you go back to my OP, i'm convinced we had a manipulated push up to unsustainable levels.  you don't get selloffs of this magnitude and intensity unless it was pre-planned.
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 [35] 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!