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Author Topic: Gold: I smell a trap  (Read 78463 times)
cypherdoc
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October 03, 2011, 11:01:05 PM
 #881

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=.TEDSP:IND

no data here.
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October 04, 2011, 01:57:58 AM
 #882

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/10/october-3-2011-commodities-and.html

"This does not represent our position, which is based on the powerful impact of bubble psychology, rather than on supply and demand. In contrast, we would argue that for commodity price to fall a long way, and very quickly too, it is not necessary for demand to exceed supply, especially by any significant margin.

Changes in supply and demand do not typically occur rapidly, but changes in perception certainly do, and it is perception that drives markets. If the fundamentals of supply and demand were responsible for setting prices, we would not see price collapses over a matter of months, yet this is exactly what we saw in 2008."

this is the type of non linear thinking i employ.
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October 04, 2011, 02:02:37 AM
 #883

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc111003.htm

"The way you spot a thoughtful economist, in my view, is to listen for an understanding of both data analysis and equilibrium. In our experience, most economists and Wall Street analysts seem to analyze the economy as what I'd call a "flow of anecdotes" - weekly unemployment claims did this, retail sales did that, we got a positive surprise here, and so forth, without putting that information into any real structure and without knowing which data points actually matter or in what combination. In contrast, good economists think about the economy as a system - where multiple sectors interact. We tend to use words like "equilibrium" and "syndrome" when we talk about economic data - emphasizing that the best signals involve a whole conformation of evidence, not one or two indicators, where the data - in combination - captures a particular signature of recession or recovery."

who here thinks this way?
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October 04, 2011, 02:11:28 AM
 #884

Misreality's Emerging Market Update:

China:



Emerging Mkt ETF:



Brazil:

miscreanity
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October 04, 2011, 05:07:15 AM
 #885

you want data?  here's some data:

Alright, progress. Excellent chart - it shows more information than price charts alone can offer. It's impossible to see where the COMEX could potentially be in default just by looking at the price of gold. Monitoring the TED spread is good as well, but less direct of a factor in regard to the main topic of gold.

I assume you consider the chart to show a collapse in demand for gold? Please correct me if I'm wrong.

Also, do you have a link to the article the chart is from? For now, I've added some information based on the assumption that the data is from the CFTC CoT report, with the gold OI scale on the left side and silver OI on the right side. It doesn't appear that the chart includes the "nonreportables" category, which is a good portion of potential delivery requests.



Keep in mind the potential for options to be executed and stand for delivery. That activity has been increasing, putting additional pressure on COMEX warehouse stores. It's much harder to estimate options execution, though. Futures options serve as a target for these price declines to prevent just that option execution wave from taking place and draining COMEX registered gold.

It would've been nice to have 2008 visible to show the similarity in pattern formation, but that's available elsewhere. I'll post a chart if I have the opportunity.

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/10/october-3-2011-commodities-and.html

"This does not represent our position, which is based on the powerful impact of bubble psychology, rather than on supply and demand. In contrast, we would argue that for commodity price to fall a long way, and very quickly too, it is not necessary for demand to exceed supply, especially by any significant margin.

Changes in supply and demand do not typically occur rapidly, but changes in perception certainly do, and it is perception that drives markets. If the fundamentals of supply and demand were responsible for setting prices, we would not see price collapses over a matter of months, yet this is exactly what we saw in 2008."

this is the type of non linear thinking i employ.

Article tl;dr. The gist is that credit is contracting and commodity prices will fall with it. If I'm not mistaken, this thread is about gold, not oil. Oil is primarily a consumable commodity; gold is not.

Gold is reasserting a monetary role: it is being propelled to act as cash, especially in reserve capacity, and therefore will provide a basis for pricing rather than having a price attached to it; relative pricing will be determined by the base of available gold the same way we currently use the USD base money supply.

It doesn't matter if the average person doesn't use gold in daily exchange. Large businesses, cross-regional or international transactions may be conducted in grams or ounces instead of dollars and Euros. That would provide the solid golden base layer upon which fiat acts as a representative instead of the backward system today.

This is psychology in conjunction with supply & demand; non-linear. Reco'nize, son!

Misreality's Emerging Market Update:

All equity markets have been tumbling, what's your point? We already agreed that contraction is the flavor of the month. The charts are just prices yet again (at least with volume, but that's decreasing which suggests the downtrend is slowing) and the point of contention is still gold. I consider news of insatiable demand for gold as far more relevant to the topic.
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October 04, 2011, 05:18:42 AM
 #886


LOL
cypherdoc
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October 04, 2011, 05:42:26 AM
 #887




http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-silver-speculative-longs-plunge-march-2009-levels


http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/10/october-3-2011-commodities-and.html

"This does not represent our position, which is based on the powerful impact of bubble psychology, rather than on supply and demand. In contrast, we would argue that for commodity price to fall a long way, and very quickly too, it is not necessary for demand to exceed supply, especially by any significant margin.

Changes in supply and demand do not typically occur rapidly, but changes in perception certainly do, and it is perception that drives markets. If the fundamentals of supply and demand were responsible for setting prices, we would not see price collapses over a matter of months, yet this is exactly what we saw in 2008."

this is the type of non linear thinking i employ.

Article tl;dr. The gist is that credit is contracting and commodity prices will fall with it. If I'm not mistaken, this thread is about gold, not oil. Oil is primarily a consumable commodity; gold is not.

Nicole Foss is the author of that post and this article applies to gold/silver as well as other commodities.

did you bother reading this post of mine:
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc111003.htm

"The way you spot a thoughtful economist, in my view, is to listen for an understanding of both data analysis and equilibrium. In our experience, most economists and Wall Street analysts seem to analyze the economy as what I'd call a "flow of anecdotes" - weekly unemployment claims did this, retail sales did that, we got a positive surprise here, and so forth, without putting that information into any real structure and without knowing which data points actually matter or in what combination. In contrast, good economists think about the economy as a system - where multiple sectors interact. We tend to use words like "equilibrium" and "syndrome" when we talk about economic data - emphasizing that the best signals involve a whole conformation of evidence, not one or two indicators, where the data - in combination - captures a particular signature of recession or recovery."

you cannot evaluate gold in a vacuum.  it very much is influenced by multiple sectors and their interactions.  to ignore the widespread deflation going on worldwide is ludicrous.


Gold is reasserting a monetary role: it is being propelled to act as cash, especially in reserve capacity, and therefore will provide a basis for pricing rather than having a price attached to it; relative pricing will be determined by the base of available gold the same way we currently use the USD base money supply.

It doesn't matter if the average person doesn't use gold in daily exchange. Large businesses, cross-regional or international transactions may be conducted in grams or ounces instead of dollars and Euros. That would provide the solid golden base layer upon which fiat acts as a representative instead of the backward system today.

This is psychology in conjunction with supply & demand; non-linear. Reco'nize, son!

Misreality's Emerging Market Update:

All equity markets have been tumbling, what's your point? We already agreed that contraction is the flavor of the month. The charts are just prices yet again (at least with volume, but that's decreasing which suggests the downtrend is slowing) and the point of contention is still gold. I consider news of insatiable demand for gold as far more relevant to the topic.

i really think gold doesn't get this far.  with the ferociousness of the upward move in the USD along with worldwide and especially emerging mkt deflation its only a matter of time before gold gets dragged down just like silver and the stocks. 
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October 04, 2011, 01:30:44 PM
 #888

how much pain are you willing to sustain?
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October 04, 2011, 01:46:14 PM
 #889

are the charts still lying?
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October 04, 2011, 01:52:13 PM
 #890

we are going to get a spectacular dump in the gold price very soon. 
cypherdoc
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October 04, 2011, 01:57:00 PM
 #891

@misreality:  in case you hadn't noticed, this is not just a gold thread; this is a thread about world economics.
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October 04, 2011, 02:51:46 PM
 #892

I think there is a chance that Treasuries will also fall. There seems to be some correlation between Treasuries and Gold recently. Although Gold is starting to move by itself, unrelated to global uncertainty.

 Learn how modern money really works.  (http://alturl.com/e4hu5) Ctrl-F : 1. What is Money?

How can a State(Country) that creates its own currency run out of Money?? It can't.
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October 04, 2011, 05:29:06 PM
 #893

no more innovation here:


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October 04, 2011, 05:34:05 PM
 #894

you gotta be concerned about high quality corporate bonds breaking down:

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October 04, 2011, 05:49:29 PM
 #895

i hope someone has been listening to me:

PAAS:



SLW:



GDX:



GDXJ:



GG:

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October 04, 2011, 06:07:00 PM
 #896


In this , I would have assigned you and cypherdoc and was afraid I'd get .

Greenlandic tupilak. Hand carved, traditional cursed bone figures. Sorry, polar bear, walrus and human remains not available for export.
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October 04, 2011, 06:10:26 PM
 #897


if i have to be the one with all the money then i guess thats ok!!!  LOL!!!
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October 04, 2011, 06:11:12 PM
 #898

USD up, everything else down.  yawn...
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October 04, 2011, 06:24:47 PM
 #899

i read a very funny post yesterday that keeps popping into my head.  it goes like this:

"short everything except anything with 3x Bear in it!"
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October 04, 2011, 06:48:31 PM
 #900

Do you actually think USD will continue to appreciate long? I really can't imagine a scenario for such as the proposed solutions in Europe/America seem to continue to revolve around printing more money and preparing for more bailouts.
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