... and my willingness to put the details, theory, and data forward to support that position.
Yes, lots of theory with details on the theory, but the only "data" has been in the form of price chart patterns. Those have already been discussed as being malleable and unable to provide a complete perspective, especially on gold.Price
charts are only a look at price trends
. They don't bare the underlying mechanics of the system, nor do they offer genuinely predictive information. This is what data looks like behind the scenes
... cover my short position and buy.Now
you want to play the quote game?
From the original August 8th PM:
Just some words of caution; how you trade is ultimately your decision.
From August 9th
through the rest of the month:
* Note that gold has formed a double top on the short term charts (1hr or shorter) after a push down from ~$1770 to ~$1730. The $1650-1680 range is the initial target followed by $1600 and $1550. Any spike down from here on out will be met with immense buying, so the drops will be very short-lived. Trade short at your own risk; I recommend buying physical metal.
I really don't care about anyone else's trading; that's their business. It's the physical holding that concerns me. Whether there's deflation or inflation, instability means that physical gold will be in demand. When there's enough shortage that no gold is readily available and prices are out of range for the majority of people who haven't gotten it, those without will suffer.
Whatever you do, don't sell your physical gold.
When the message was sent on August 8th, gold was around $1700. I had suggested not buying in size, but also not shorting. My intent was to convince you to keep your physical metal holdings, though I could've been more explicit on that. As it so happens, gold rose $200 from where you were getting ready to short. Do you feel lucky now? Are you willing to bet your wealth on luck, or a more measured approach?
All I know about your positions is that you've kept your remaining physical but otherwise gone short. I make no assumptions about your profitability, social standing, ethnicity, physical ability or asshat status
yours is just a simple religious based view on the pm's that has been pushed for 11 years now.
This is an unbiased statement? Maybe you're right. Maybe I've started listening to Raptor Jesus
and you've amply proven that you're unwilling to change your views despite being faced with contrary information.
What contrary information? Price charts that mask accumulation occurring behind the scenes?
you're a Boris Spassky riddled by simple linear uncreative thinking.
How long will this childish insulting continue? Perish the thought of you being married with children
. I thought this thread was about gold
btw, the greatest form of flattery is mimicking your opponent. "no i'm not linear, you're linear!" thanks for that.
Imitation is the greatest form of flattery. Ridicule in the form of mimicry is not. Maybe I shouldn't have used that method to make a point but as I said, this discussion has become entertainment for me.
you're a zealot that is unwilling to consider other's views and you're still in Stage 1 of Denial. which means gold still has a long way to fall.
Textbook ad hominem yet again
. I must be the most important person in the gold industry if its price depends on my words. Very well, then: I renounce all of my prior statements - gold will fall to negative
value within a month!
you're so predictable as well. when pundits like you are proven wrong in failing to identify the change in trend (which requires looking at the short term) the first thing they do is start backing out on the timeline of the charts.
You're so right! The first chart I posted in this thread couldn't
have been for a weekly time frame. Oh wait, it was.
What's this? The second chart
I posted was a 654-year. Shocking! Does this mean I should resort to dailies instead? If I point to a strong up day, can I state that it proves
since even the daily arithmetic charts have gone so badly against you, you have started to throw up weekly and logarithmic charts to cover up your losses. remind me to quantify those some time here in a post btw. for those interested in calculating misreality's losses, just go back to his recommendations here on the thread for his buys. they have been brutal. even if gold were to go back to $250, you would throw up a 100 yr chart and say look we're still up from $20 in 1929! buy, buy, buy!
Such fear mongering!
Please do quantify these "losses" that you presume I've incurred. The most novice trader understands that you don't actually incur a loss until the respective position has been closed. Go ahead - log into my accounts with the passwords you apparently have which allow you to calculate the unrealized
losses that you think are present. Close a few of my 1,000% positive positions while you're at it.
I suppose it may elude cypherdoc that it's possibile for other trading strategies
to exist besides his. Such non-linear concepts can be difficult to grasp.
bottom line here is since we began this thread you've cost alot of ppl and yourself alot of money following your advice. especially those ppl who bought into the push into the gold double top. and its been even worse for those who followed your advice into the 61.8% retrace push of silver. and its even more worse for the pm stocks vs silver. go back and follow the timeline of our respective advice. i was screaming for a top. the very day the pm stocks pulled back under the breakout line i called it a failure while you and the pundits you rely on (Eric Degroot i think) were screaming for a breakout.
When the message was sent on August 8th, gold was around $1700. I had suggested not buying in size, but also not shorting. My intent was to convince you to keep your physical metal holdings...
Trading is your own concern, regardless of recommendations. Are we in the business of saving people from themselves now, a la socialism? Physical metal is the necessity.
you're like a forester who refuses to get out of his plane at 30,000 feet and look at the leaves, branches, and trunks of the trees themselves which have rot growing all over them. you refuse to even acknowledge that the bull could be over. many more ppl are coming over to my view only now. oh well, convincing you will have to be bloody.
You're right, I must be as you described. Finally getting out of the gold carry trade
after its price had nearly doubled to almost $500/oz just couldn't
have been a change in my perspective. It was wrong of me to admit that the bear could be over, because it's obviously
resuming now that the price has retraced similarly to 2008. I'll completely ignore the fact
that gold has doubled
from that point. I've seen the light. Thank you for showing me the path, cypherdoc!
I understand now that gold must be due for a fall to $255/oz, despite the fact
that it doesn't tarnish and has been used for thousands of years as money when other forms failed as they're failing now. The entire precious metals market is based on a lie, because the principles that give paper currency value must not apply to physical metals. Besides, it's perfectly possible for 1% of the population to wield 80% of the power and wealth in the world without the other 99% rising up against them or at the very least trying to protect themselves.
Thank you again, cypherdoc. It feels so much better to remain oblivious to the facts.
@misreality: you sir are trapped in physical bullion as your main financial holding. thats clear from your posts so don't try to suggest otherwise. you have a huge vested interest in pushing the pm price so as to not only profit but also to prevent catastrophic losses. you are locked into the most illiquid of all assets. if the price plunges from here as i suspect, you could be bankrupted.
Presumption is dangerous, particularly when erroneous. I hold physical gold to protect against fiat default and global economic destabilization. It doesn't propel me higher - it keeps me at my current level while most others fall, leaving those with gold on the high ground. Again, it's a matter of perspective.
When have I ever
suggested in this thread that I don't
hold physical gold? These ad hominem attacks aren't even based in any way on anything remotely factual anymore.Gold illiquid
? Another invalid argument; perhaps you haven't tried finding a buyer for real estate and jumping through those hoops recently.
If paper prices plunge, nothing changes. If the real price falls, it can't go much below the production cost (currently averaging about $1,100/oz). If demand evaporated from the entire world, you might have a case. This is similar to positing if the prices fall on grain and I have a warehouse full of it, I'll starve. Do you understand that?
i've been open from the very beginning that i am short pm's and that i've sold most my bullion. and i took that position before the recent plunge. if i get the sense that i'm wrong on my call, it will take but a keystroke to stem my losses.
Will it take a mere keystroke to buy physical bullion that's unavailable after having been vacuumed up by contract holders standing for futures deliveries? We can focus on a Bitcoin aspect instead: can you acquire a 5970 card to mine Bitcoins without paying through the nose? Not so easy as a keystroke, is it?
i conclude that my arguments on this thread are much more neutral and unbiased than yours.
Of course you would... how neutral and un
Maybe I should call you a born-again permabear, or a Prechterite
. Those seem to come out every time gold declines, proclaiming how "right" they are. I'll let you know when I'm no longer bullish on gold - you can quote me on that.
I hypothesize that a deflationary mindset is more likely to exist when long-term memory is deficient.
The comex reminds me very much of the lines to buy houses at the top out the housing bubble. It went on for years. Also the ipo craze. Everything looked so good. How could anything go wrong? Why can't things reverse?
You're absolutely right. In fact, my neighbor and the bum on the street both have mobile phones. It is therefore completely obvious
and logical that they are both trading COMEX gold and silver futures, along with everyone
else on the planet! Congress no doubt wants the whole world to live the American dream of "trading paper contract futures on the commodity exchanges".
Seriously, cypherdoc - thank you for so much great material.