yes, absolutely. in the sense of: "perhaps you ought to consider quoting me as i am the only one i know that had predicted this manipulated central bank induced USD rally weeks ahead of it happening". there is a huge distinction btwn what that lame article you referenced was saying and what i predicted. just saying "i think it might rise now b/c its time" is way diff than saying "why or when" it might rise. the fact that its CB intervention means everything and is precisely why it has ramped so viciously.
Of course, Jim Rogers
has never made mention of the manipulative games going on.
LOL! you throw up another article pulled out of your ass that just quotes Rogers as buying b/c everyone's pessimistic. nothing in there about manipulation by the Fed or CB's. clearly you don't want to acknowledge that i am the only one we know about who called for a Fed/CB intervention to prop the USD and did it weeks ahead of time. such is the tunnel vision of a zealot. at least i now know what i'm dealing with.
Some such as yourself are better at calling the short-term gyrations than others. Some are better at long range shifts. That doesn't mean you stand alone. Also, call me crazy but I prefer having a life.
now come the veiled criticisms/excuses. i suggest if you're going to engage in high level discussions like we've been doing you put in the time like me. with time and effort come insights.
It's been proposed that there will be a hammer-like action in gold
. This time it's just on a much
larger scale. The long trade for this stage is about half over; it's the short trade that will be the show-stopper. For several months, at least.
why do you always quote yourself?
You mean this
no, no. i'm know Trace Mayer's work well. i've read his book where this graph came from. actually i think he stole it from someone but thats ok. i really like that guy and he likes Bitcoins too along with his buddy Bill Rounds. i miss his more regular posts and podcasts.
we already talked about this earlier in thread and no i'm not going to go find it right now. the USD reserve currency system is based on debt. banks borrow USD from the Fed at below mkt rates and from each other at he Fed Funds rate and go out into the world and speculate in emerging mkts esp China the last decade. these USD's are mopped up by the foreign CB's and they keep most of these in reserve and then inflate their own currencies on top of the USD reserves. hence my inverse pyramid analogy of debt and currency built upon debt. most of the debt in the emerging mkts is USD denominated. problem is when we get financial crises and everyones debt starts imploding they scramble for USD's to try and prop up those bad debts and the pressure to maintain enough USD reserves becomes intense and worse overseas and is really why the USD goes up. its not so much for the safe haven status as that they are FORCED to liquidate bad bets and buy USD's to cover as much of the bad debt as possible. hence the shrinkage of virtual USD's worldwide. this is why the Fed is forced to provide swap lines nowadays and why most of the TARP and bailout money had to go to prop up overseas banks.
Are you speaking of the same emerging markets where manufacturing has moved while those in developed nations rust or are taken over by government? The same ones where agriculture is still a large component of national production as opposed to "developed" countries where 98% of its citizens couldn't grow enough food to feed themselves for a year if they wanted to? These are same growing environments that have built brand-new infrastructure and have positive prospects while the "Masters of the Universe" panic and try to save their own hides.
i am indeed. you are in severe denial. i point to all emerging US stock mkts year to date as evidence to my assertion. ALL are worse off than the Dow or S&P year to date. what evidence do you submit other than a blanket "this is how i see it"?
It sounds like you're suggesting the USD is here now and forever. Haven't you said that nothing lasts forever? There's a turning point coming up in gold
, but it isn't the end.
there you go again quoting yourself. no, i just think the deflationary depression comes before the hyperinflation, the reverse of what you predict.
If, or rather when that happens, the world goes to war as the US cannot sustain itself in its current form. America will try to hold onto everything it can by force rather than endure the difficult transition of shifting to greater productivity instead of consumption. Should America not become violent, that would shock me - nothing of its past or current behavior suggests that will occur.
at least you perhaps inadvertently agree with me that there will never be a one world currency if you believe in war.
It isn't the fact that this dollar rally happened that's interesting, but the extent to which it has risen in such a short time.
this came as no surprise to me. not when you predict that the USD rally will come from CB intervention as i have. i have said several times the USD will "skyrocket". this is how markets are manipulated. in the middle of the night interventions when most investors are asleep at the wheel to create maximum psychological impact at the open via a huge GLD gap down; extreme ramps to force margined gold players out of their positions; small descending triangle formations to "tempt" bulls in gold into buying and leveraging up before "the trap" is snapped shut; extreme ramps in the USD to force USD shorts to cover overextended positions; waiting until sentiment reaches extremes before initiating an attack; all the while to create huge profits for insider bank traders that have been notified ahead of time. this is where technical analysis combined with intuition and a thorough understanding of fundamentals, criminality, and sentiment come in handy. i can "see" the setups.
It was interesting, not surprising. The move was obviously imminent. As for the sequence that it took place in, the specific technique
are you a narcissist or what? or perhaps a self promoter?
As derivatives collapse and US dollars are rushed into, instruments that formed the paper gold markets will completely devolve. Where will those USDs go next? Physical gold, among other real assets. Just because paper instruments are destroyed doesn't mean the demand disappears. The paper lie can only hold so long as the majority doesn't realize what's behind it.
This means that you will see a complete divergence: GLD goes to pennies while bullion premiums go through the roof. The officially stated price doesn't even have to rise for that to happen. In fact, that will serve to keep those oblivious to these activities still in the dark.
i don't think you understand. these paper mkts were funded with USD debt. as the debt based paper markets in gold or whatever implode, speculators are FORCED to scramble for "physical" USD's to pay off their losses. these usually come in the form of margin calls and they don't have a choice to plow that money over to physical gold and certainly can't use physical gold to pay off their losses.
how much further does Goldcorp (GG), a bellwether gold stock, have to fall beneath its breakout line for it to be considered a "failed breakout"?
A managed market does not offer genuinely valid technical signals. By the same token, manipulation can only go so far. On very long term charts, the technicals will provide a better gauge of the long-term trend. This is why it can be hard to keep up with the daily gesticulations, but easy to see the big movements.
but at the same time you've used technical analysis in this thread many times esp to point out target points for the subsequent parabola thats supposed to come along with several support/resistance lines. which is it?