you may think i'm nuts to go against miscreanity, FOFOA, Jim Rickards, Dan Norcini, Eric King, Jim Puplava, Jim Sinclair, Nouriel Roubini, Mish, Dave Rosenberg, James Turk, David Einhorn, Ben Davies, Eric Degroot, Pierre Lasonde, Gerald Celente, Peter Schiff, Ken Ivory, Eric Sprott, Antal Fekete, Bill Fleckenstein, Bill Murray, John Embry, Rick Rule, Doug Casey, Michael Pento, Mark Faber, John Embry, Felix Zulauf, John Hathaway, Rob Arnott, Jean Marie Eveillard, etc, etc, etc. And perhaps i am. after all, who the hell is cypherdoc anyway? just an anonymous voice on the Internet.
Nice list. You left out the likes of Mises, Rothbard, Hayek and Friedman.
How many names are there? Now how many people have no clue who they are?
Trees < Forest. A contrarian stance based on subjective perception alone is dangerously unstable. Don't be misguided by immersion.
gold will not go to $35000. i doubt it will ever reach $2000. that was the perfect mirage to put in front of the bulls. i think your outstretched hands will never reach it.
I'll remind you when $2,000 is breached, not to say "I told you so" but to keep you from losing your shirt. At least by holding onto some physical gold you'll be alright financially at the end of all this turmoil no matter what.
Better yet, an offer of a wager: if gold rises above $2,000/oz, you will abandon the notion that physical gold is in a bubble and will follow my guidelines.
My guidelines are developed from the best observations of those who came before me. To make things even simpler, here is the plan a priori: the strategy consists of buying physical gold at points which those in the name list above target as low ranges. The rest of the strategy is just to hold that gold until the same group generally agrees that it has stabilized in fiat prices.
... please explain to me how a devaluation peg and gold drop can be simultaneously orchestrated. Can one be a logical function of the other (like selling/shorting gold priced in CHF) or are they two distinct and perhaps doubly costly operations?
The managed float/peg announcement caused the markets to move. Gold was simply under pressure or it would've shot higher - note that it retraced over 80% of it's initial drop within an hour after the SNB statement. Continued pressure in
paper operations provided the tool for grinding the metal lower. The actual mechanism employed was gold futures being sold en masse, most likely by bullion banks and central banks.
Dan Norcini noted
over 4,000 contracts being dumped in the initial attack. That number has since doubled. Again, it was a paper operation which had its intended effect of driving out weak longs and confusing investors who were expecting the SNB move to be positive for gold. Short covering will take place soon in order for the perpetrators to avoid taking substantial and unmanageable losses. I'd say one more day to shake out the remaining weak stragglers.
Pay attention to the $1810 level as I
pointed out a couple of times. Below that is heavy buying all the way down to the low $1700s.
Really big money patiently follows the 40-50 week moving averages and 144-200 day moving averages. That isn't to say it'd be a straight drop from $1700 to $1500, just that the lower number is where the absolute floor will be. I do
not see a drop that low until seasonal demand has been satiated at a much higher price.
The mining stocks have been
extremely strong lately, striking toward new highs as global equity indices flounder and the physical metals are pounced on. Paying attention to the metals alone will distract from subtle action going on elsewhere.
remember my theory is that the USD is central as the worlds reserve currency, not gold.
Then no bank of any kind would have gold
reserves. The banks treat gold as money. Paper just acts as a claim ticket no matter how you look at it. Bitcoin and crypto-currency systems are obviously in a separate class that transcends contemporary digital-paper money.
part of this phenomenon i believe can be explained by the shorts and sellers "rotating" from one bull market to the next selling them off one by one. this is how the Dow can explode today by short covering and pm's get wacked today. thus, the normal relationships you'll see in the middle of long term climbs like 3/09 to now start diverging. you have to step back and view the overall picture of the change from the reflation to a now prolonged deflation. at some pt we'll crash and it could very well be later this year. at that pt all markets will get into gear to the downside as one with the USD skyrocketing.
Yes. The last two sentences are predicated on the assumption that the Fed will do nothing. That is as much reliance upon policy as blind inflation adherents.
Gold will go up regardless of either direction because both outcomes lead to instability in the
structure of the financial system. The only stability is in gold.
i think the waves of bad news for gold will keep coming. tomorrow we'll probably see the $DXY break out over 76.25. then 9/22 Fed meeting still won't announce any more QE. the question will be how long will you deny whats happening?
What bad news? Did CERN suddenly discover how to vaporize metric tonnes of gold in a nanosecond?
The dollar needs to
close over 76. It still won't be out of the woods then. There are numerous levels beyond that which have to be breached in order to sustain a rally, 79 being a major one. I seriously doubt triple-digits for the dollar index are coming in the near future.
all info is embedded in the price. i think the Fed has put out the word that no more QE is forthcoming. gold does not like this.
That's like saying all of the body's ills can be determined by checking blood pressure: it's a fallacy.
bubble theory: forget the conspiracy theories, gold went into a parabola at the end of an 11 yr bull cycle and most investors concluded that their proceeds from selling off the CHF on the SNB anncmnt wouldn't go into a bubble but instead into the world's reserve currency, the USD, which currently is very UNDERvalued. not to mention the huge short interest in the USD. this really is the basis of most of my moves regarding selling off my bullion and putting on shorts. i refuse to buy parabolas. all the fundamentals stack up for a reversal of all markets as well. markets love volatility. you just need to make sure you get into position before everyone else.
If "most investors" have moved to the USD instead of gold, that's exactly the type of positioning that you would trade against, by your own contrarian reasoning.
For those preferring technical analysis, observe this chart from the
Got Gold Report:
If anyone can find where there is a parabolic blow-off top, please let me know. On the time scale provided, a doubling would be expected from at least the mid-line of the midly elevated second uptrend channel. That doubling suggests about $3,000/oz at the present time before
any resemblance to a bubble is evidenced on the charts.
Breakouts that could've resulted in a long-term bull-run-ending parabola were short-circuited in 2006 and 2008. Those events are plain to see on the long-term charts. There is probably another year or two to go before a
real vertical rise begins to manifest. Only when prices hit limit up day after day will gold's bull market finally end, certainly not while it is still being called a bubble.
How does this work? The markets will collapse, unemployment will rise, prices will fall, tax revenue will drop, the Treasury will issue about a trillion new USTB at high discount rates and yields, and the Fed is going to do nothing? And in Europe?
The short answer is that all of the factors mentioned will force monetary authorities to act no matter what they might wish for. If they don't, they'll be replaced with people who
will act in accordance with the political sentiment of the region.
