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Author Topic: Gold: I smell a trap  (Read 78625 times)
miscreanity
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September 30, 2011, 06:44:53 PM
 #841

As hugolp pointed out, the increase in margin requirements is probably what had caused more damage. Remember the las silver sudden drop (April/may)? They did the same back then, precisely in the middle of a bull run.

The worse other moneys do, the better for gold.
It would also be extensively used in industry if it were as cheap as silver.

USD deflation won't hurt gold, because it is cash, not credit. At the bottom of the deflation you sell the gold and buy investments with yields on the cheap.

If NATO had not invaded Libya, gold would be even better and USD even worse. But if you suggest you're going to sell your oil for anything different than USD you get a bullet in your head. Gadaffi did it (he even proposed the golden dinar as a supra-national African currency) for gold. Saddam did it for EUR. That's what makes USD the world reserve and not the US economy, which is no longer the soundest in the world.

Anyway, QEn will stop it all. With each iteration they need to print much more to prevent deflation. And exponential functions don't last forever.
I don't plan to sell my silver until the USD has collapsed. And I'm completely certain that will happen sooner or later. The monetary value that the USD contains will move to other places, and precious metals will get a great part of that value.
On the other hand, if they allow deflation to happen, gold won't suffer a great loss, probably rises too.

Key points bolded. One note of disagreement - gold doesn't have many industrial uses at all. Even new uses won't be enough to have statistical significance. Gold remains primarily money.

Yes, the US is in the Middle East and hasn't left because of the USD as reserve currency issue. Wasn't it odd that the first act by the "rebels" in Libya was to set up a central bank? Who does that? As web developers, they'd upload a pretty mock-up image of a new site before starting to even examine what functional aspects are needed.

If major nations (especially those that produce what the US needs) kick the dollar habit, then the US has to provide another form of currency in exchange for critically-required oil. Cheap dollars for oil, or expensive real assets for oil - the US cannot afford the true price of oil, so the military is there to ensure that USD-based exchange is maintained. Any other reason is a cover.

Gold is not a promise, just as Bitcoin is not a promise. Both would rise in a deflation situation for the same reasons that the USD is rising against the Euro as the latter contracts.
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MatthewLM
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September 30, 2011, 11:19:16 PM
 #842

Cypherdoc, take a picture of all your USD bank notes you have invested in.

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October 01, 2011, 01:17:11 AM
 #843

Hey miscreanity, three days ago you linked to the "Gold Stupidity" video, but it had since been pulled. I found an alternate copy. Perhaps ya'll can appreciate this.

Greenlandic tupilak. Hand carved, traditional cursed bone figures. Sorry, polar bear, walrus and human remains not available for export.
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October 01, 2011, 07:39:16 AM
 #844

Quit making this so easy for me - you were offering genuine challenges recently. Smiley

@misreality:  i've been sitting here shaking my head chuckling to myself trying to figure out how best to respond to your post.  i finally determined that the warnings i wrote yesterday regarding the intraday action in the markets went right over your head.  i take back that compliment i gave you which is probably the reason for your blindfolders.  or perhaps your giddiness was b/c the pain in the PM space has eased just a bit the past coupla days.

you have no idea about the pain that is about to befall you once again.  you and MatthewLaMe.
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October 01, 2011, 03:01:37 PM
 #845

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
cypherdoc
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October 01, 2011, 03:15:10 PM
 #846

Cypherdoc, take a picture of all your USD bank notes you have invested in.

there's your picture.  i like what i see esp. on Friday.

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October 01, 2011, 06:48:49 PM
 #847

I take it it's all debt based. When your debt collapse comes, you'll lose a lot of money.

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cypherdoc
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October 01, 2011, 07:40:26 PM
 #848

I take it it's all debt based. When your debt collapse comes, you'll lose a lot of money.

LOL!  Up 77%!


MatthewLM
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October 01, 2011, 11:45:36 PM
 #849

When did your "debt collapse" come?

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miscreanity
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October 02, 2011, 12:02:22 AM
 #850

Hey miscreanity, three days ago you linked to the "Gold Stupidity" video, but it had since been pulled. I found an alternate copy. Perhaps ya'll can appreciate this.

Awesome, thanks! Smiley

@misreality:  i've been sitting here shaking my head chuckling to myself trying to figure out how best to respond to your post.  i finally determined that the warnings i wrote yesterday regarding the intraday action in the markets went right over your head.  i take back that compliment i gave you which is probably the reason for your blindfolders.  or perhaps your giddiness was b/c the pain in the PM space has eased just a bit the past coupla days.

you have no idea about the pain that is about to befall you once again.  you and MatthewLaMe.

Darn, I've lost the praise of someone who ignores reality. Mortifying. Oh - you might not want to admit that you're cackling to yourself like a crazy person. Smiley

Daily technicals flip faster than the latest GPU cores and that's supposed to be significant? Fundamentals are screaming that any point below $1,650 in gold is a buy (same for <$32 silver), widespread shortages of silver are present even without public participation and I don't use anything leveraged. Aside from the options, I can sit happily and let everything ride without chasing paper trails. Even then, the options have at least another quarter to show a positive run. I have the luxury of time while the banks and western world in general are rapidly running out of it.

No pain here, but thanks for your repeat presumption. I've previously stated that I am accumulating (bullion & equities without leverage) much more than trading. I'm patient enough to wait for the big moves to come to me instead of the other way 'round. Those open equity orders weren't filled on the last dip, but are still waiting in staggered tranches. Another spike down and it'll be kid-in-a-candystore time.

LOL!  Up 77%!

OMG UR RITE SILVER WORHTLESS END OF WRLD!!!1!oneoneone

Now let's take a breather and zoom out for a better perspective.



Oh, the dollar is only up 35% over 3 years - the scale big money pays attention to. With all the hootin' and hollerin' and panic selling to boost the USD, that's as far as it could go? Even from a purely technical standpoint, that's sad. The emperor has no clothes, but he's running around screaming as loud as he can that he does.

Going further back to prior peaks in the USD, we can see that it was around 120 in 2001 and as high as 164 in early 1985. Over 16 years elapsed during the USD drop from 164 to 78.5 before that move's 50% retracement was tested. It sure does take a long time for these kind of actions to take place. Troubles and crises seem to be hitting harder and faster, though.

Looking at the USD:SILVER ratio in 2001, the dollar was 120 and silver was about 5, making the ratio approximately 24:1. A jump in the ratio from 1.5 to 2.6 is 1.1 - compare that to 24. That's about 4.5% difference; barely worth getting out of bed for. This should impress upon you the importance of greater scales and that they must be taken into account even when looking at the dailies, unless your goal is to stay glued to the charts.

In addition, USD (and UST) volume declined heavily during the latest rise compared to the prior peak. Volume has also declined to very low levels in gold and silver. Trends experiencing declining volume eventually reverse - continuation is unsustainable, just as continual accumulation of debt can't last. To reiterate - using a log scale for charting keeps price moves in perspective when there is rising volume because of increasing participation. Just look at the volume numbers for the past two months (one month for USD) - records across the board by orders of magnitude!

This thread has become my primary form of financial entertainment, along with Money McBags. Deflationists are as amusing as permabull gold bugs (and just as dangerous).
cypherdoc
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October 02, 2011, 01:56:06 PM
 #851

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2011/09/gold-mining-stocks-versus-gold.html
cypherdoc
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October 02, 2011, 02:48:39 PM
 #852

This thread has become my primary form of financial entertainment, along with Money McBags. Deflationists are as amusing as permabull gold bugs (and just as dangerous).

yet you keep coming back and posting here more than your own blog!   i'm sure you're drawn by the fact that my thread is getting alot of views.  not trying to brag but i'm willing to bet most people here are drawn more to my willingness to put myself out there and take a contrarian view to the conventional wisdom in calling an end to the gold/silver bull.  especially since things now seem to have gone terribly wrong.  and my willingness to put the details, theory, and data forward to support that position.  and i do this not on just a longterm view but realtime as well. after all, how the hell are you supposed to get out ahead of these turns if you don't trade short term?

not that these viewers are in my camp mind you; i bet most here desperately want me to be wrong since they are pm bulls like yourself.  thats ok too.  as i said from the beginning, you were my motivation to start this thread; your mysterious unsolicited pm from an anonymous internet poster whispering for me to cover my short position and buy.  not used to ppl ignoring your advice and even intimidating you, eh? Smiley   i still smell a trap.

i'm willing to look at the data as it comes in and interpret what is happening.  i am willing to admit i'm wrong.  yours is just a simple religious based view on the pm's that has been pushed for 11 years now.  and you've amply proven that you're unwilling to change your views despite being faced with contrary information. you're a Boris Spassky riddled by simple linear uncreative thinking.  btw, the greatest form of flattery is mimicking your opponent.  "no i'm not linear, you're linear!"  thanks for that.  you're a zealot that is unwilling to consider other's views and you're still in Stage 1 of Denial.  which means gold still has a long way to fall.

you're so predictable as well.  when pundits like you are proven wrong in failing to identify the change in trend (which requires looking at the short term)  the first thing they do is start backing out on the timeline of the charts.  since even the daily arithmetic charts have gone so badly against you, you have started to throw up weekly and logarithmic charts to cover up your losses.  remind me to quantify those some time here in a post btw.  for those interested in calculating misreality's losses, just go back to his recommendations here on the thread for his buys.  they have been brutal.  even if gold were to go back to $250, you would throw up a 100 yr chart and say look we're still up from $20 in 1929!  buy, buy, buy!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.msg546612#msg546612

bottom line here is since we began this thread you've cost alot of ppl and yourself alot of money following your advice.  especially those ppl who bought into the push into the gold double top.  and its been even worse for those who followed your advice into the 61.8% retrace push of silver.  and its even more worse for the pm stocks vs silver.  go back and follow the timeline of our respective advice.  i was screaming for a top.  the very day the pm stocks pulled back under the breakout line i called it a failure while you and the pundits you rely on (Eric Degroot i think) were screaming for a breakout.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.msg527117#msg527117

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=35956.msg522374#msg522374

you're like a forester who refuses to get out of his plane at 30,000 feet and look at the leaves, branches, and trunks of the trees themselves which have rot growing all over them.  you refuse to even acknowledge that the bull could be over.  many more ppl are coming over to my view only now.  oh well, convincing you will have to be bloody.
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October 02, 2011, 04:08:06 PM
 #853

You want people to go into the trap of electronic debt money.

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cypherdoc
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October 02, 2011, 04:16:12 PM
 #854

You want people to go into the trap of electronic debt money.

no, i want ppl to accumulate as much hard cash USD's as possible.  its skyrocketing in value.  we are seeing the beginning of bank runs.

http://problembanklist.com/will-the-run-on-greek-banks-spread-across-europe-0401/

http://forextrib.com/forex-news-analysis/forex-market-news/fxpro-daily-forex-brief-the-mad-scramble-for-dollars/

those same electronic debt USD's are vaporizing as we speak causing an overall plunge in total USD's worldwide.
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October 02, 2011, 04:29:21 PM
 #855

@misreality:   you sir are trapped in physical bullion as your main financial holding.  thats clear from your posts so don't try to suggest otherwise.  you have a huge vested interest in pushing the pm price so as to not only profit but also to prevent catastrophic losses.  you are locked into the most illiquid of all assets.  if the price plunges from here as i suspect, you could be bankrupted.

i've been open from the very beginning that i am short pm's and that i've sold most my bullion.  and i took that position before the recent plunge. if i get the sense that i'm wrong on my call, it will take but a keystroke to stem my losses.  

i conclude that my arguments on this thread are much more neutral and unbiased than yours.
MatthewLM
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October 02, 2011, 04:37:26 PM
 #856

You want people to go into the trap of electronic debt money.

no, i want ppl to accumulate as much hard cash USD's as possible.

Where's your's then? You have most of your wealth in USD notes?

Also, weren't you bullish on USTs earlier in the thread? You've changed your tune.

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cypherdoc
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October 02, 2011, 04:44:29 PM
 #857

You want people to go into the trap of electronic debt money.

no, i want ppl to accumulate as much hard cash USD's as possible.

Where's your's then? You have most of your wealth in USD notes?

Also, weren't you bullish on USTs earlier in the thread? You've changed your tune.

as a US citizen of course most of my wealth is in USD's.

the UST short is very small and i'll take it down if it goes south.  i've only added it b/c prices could be at an extreme. in fact, if UST's sell off, its possible this will drive the USD even higher and faster and gold/silver straight down into the dumps.  wouldn't that be something?
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October 02, 2011, 04:56:15 PM
 #858

Quote
as a US citizen of course most of my wealth is in USD's.

I bet most Americans have their wealth outside of notes, only having a few in their wallets/purses.

Quote
if UST's sell off, its possible this will drive the USD even higher and faster and gold/silver straight down into the dumps.  wouldn't that be something?

Investors have assets in mind for "safety" or "I have no idea where else to put the money". If USTs go, then gold and silver will see more buying.

Have you commented on the COMEX destruction along with PM manipulation which would occur if the debt collapses?

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cypherdoc
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October 02, 2011, 06:05:13 PM
 #859

Quote
as a US citizen of course most of my wealth is in USD's.

I bet most Americans have their wealth outside of notes, only having a few in their wallets/purses.

Quote
if UST's sell off, its possible this will drive the USD even higher and faster and gold/silver straight down into the dumps.  wouldn't that be something?

Investors have assets in mind for "safety" or "I have no idea where else to put the money". If USTs go, then gold and silver will see more buying.

Have you commented on the COMEX destruction along with PM manipulation which would occur if the debt collapses?

The comex reminds me very much of the lines to buy houses at the top out the housing bubble.  It went on for years.  Also the ipo craze. Everything looked so good.  How could anything go wrong?  Why can't things reverse?
MatthewLM
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October 02, 2011, 06:56:03 PM
 #860

The point essentially is, when the paper gold and silver is shown as bogus, don't you think this will have severe upward pressure on the real deal?

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