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Author Topic: Gold: I smell a trap  (Read 78406 times)
miscreanity
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November 04, 2011, 02:21:07 AM
 #1061

How high can the Greek 1 year bond go?
http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GGGB1Y:IND/chart

It shows up as 231% ?? It sounds absolutely absurd.

I've heard of an investment group that formed a betting pool with the next target before collapse being 300%... ludicrous!

any thoughts on any MF Global correlation?

Some worthwhile commentary from Armstrong (PDF).

I also liked a piece from the KWN interview with Jean Marie Eveillard:

Quote from: Jean Marie Eveillard
"I think the long-term secular case for gold is still in place.  Some people say after an eleven or twelve year bull market, aren’t we in a bubble?  There is nothing to say that after twelve years the bull market is over.  Look at the bull market in Treasury notes and bonds, it’s thirty years old.  So there is no particular length of time that implies that a bull market or bear market is over."

Good ol' Mr. Sinclair: "Gold is headed now into the $2000s with extreme violence."

And even more regarding warnings of questionable management of mining shares from Costata & FOFOA, which they suggest has been a major contributor to values of companies in the sector being held back. In essence: inflation through dilution of outstanding shares. This offers a boost over the long-term to those companies that don't inflate their offerings, although that still doesn't get you the actual metal.

Get physical! Smiley

when?  thats the key question.

I don't know about S3052, but my timing is usually a bit early... I'm going to say 6-8 months (May-June 2012); just in time to officially fire off QE3 and trigger a rally into US elections.
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November 04, 2011, 02:10:53 PM
 #1062

here comes the ramp
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November 05, 2011, 06:44:28 PM
 #1063


the biggest rallies are in bear markets = large short squeeze bounces.

this bounce will again lead to a bigger stock market decline


when?  thats the key question.

Fully agree. The WHEN is the question, not if.

But my preferred forecast assumes that S&P 500 does not rise above 1300 any more and will get to low triple digits / high double digits in the next 2-3 years.

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November 05, 2011, 10:30:29 PM
 #1064

There's been some commentary on the CME margin clarification. Initially, it was assumed to be a hike. That has been rectified - we now know from official announcement that the initial margin requirements are being lowered to match the maintenance margin levels.

Price spikes and rapid knock-downs will occur on a monthly basis at least through January. The same occurred during late 2010. Expect record highs once thought impossible.
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November 06, 2011, 09:04:10 AM
 #1065

record highs in which asset? can you specify what you mean?

>15years analysis experience

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November 06, 2011, 04:47:37 PM
 #1066

OP should add a poll to this topic asking if people are bullish or bearish on precious metals.
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November 06, 2011, 07:48:39 PM
 #1067

@miscreanity Thanks for what you have said. Are you suggesting that the COMEX markets are ridiculous and unstable but will be safe for now? We shouldn't see futures defaults for now but it is likely the prices of precious metals will now edge upwards further with more backwardation? and you say January would be a time with the biggest opportunity for an large assault on the price?

There has been slight slides in the gold price in the past during the start of new years.

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November 06, 2011, 10:35:46 PM
 #1068

USD opens DOWN.  markets like whats coming out of Europe.  assets up in AM if this holds.
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November 06, 2011, 10:36:34 PM
 #1069

L-Pap is apparently a Fed lackey. Sad
miscreanity
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November 07, 2011, 01:34:49 AM
 #1070

record highs in which asset? can you specify what you mean?

Commodities in general, precious metals in specific; futures as the primary leveraged instruments to drive speculative valuations. Anything else (bonds, equities, etc) is too fleeting and strained by cross-currents to be accurately gauged right now. The link has more information than would be fit to repost here.

@miscreanity Thanks for what you have said. Are you suggesting that the COMEX markets are ridiculous and unstable but will be safe for now? We shouldn't see futures defaults for now but it is likely the prices of precious metals will now edge upwards further with more backwardation? and you say January would be a time with the biggest opportunity for an large assault on the price?

There has been slight slides in the gold price in the past during the start of new years.

Sure thing. Sort of - the COMEX markets are managed to the extent that sellers control the short-term volatility and long-term rate of change, but control is slipping. Without the manipulation occurring, the exchanges would be almost guaranteed to default.

Correct - we may never see the exchanges officially default. Since February is the main delivery month for gold and silver (those being the primary targets for multiple reasons) after the December contract, January will see the same kind of assault on precious metals prices.

Yes, declines of ~8% or so at the beginning of the year have been typical since the 2008 crisis started. Since the bullion banks are trapped and still have February contracts to deliver on, I see no reason for a change in the pattern.

Note: if using options, RGLD and SLW have acted as excellent proxies for the gold and silver price, respectively. I would be much more inclined to make use of them during the rises in precious metal prices. On the declines, GLD and SLV are preferred, as GLD will no longer have capped fees as of 11/11/11 and SLV is suspected of having similar issues - therefore, these instruments are more likely to lag on the PM increases and exceed on declines. At this point, trading PM ETFs in general should be strongly suspect.
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November 07, 2011, 05:46:36 PM
 #1071

Thanks for your answer. Isn't your strategy to have long term investment in physical and then use put options to take advantage of the temporary bearish turns? That seems like a good idea.

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November 07, 2011, 07:22:32 PM
 #1072

beautiful headfake.  i still think odds are we're going over the 5/11 highs. Grin
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November 07, 2011, 08:13:39 PM
 #1073

Doesn't want to stop going up today. I was informally playing with a spread betting demo and I thought there was going to be a tiny reversal but suddenly in a single tick it goes over the previous high for the day and I luckily make back my virtual losses by holding a long position. Then I got bored.  Grin

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cypherdoc
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November 07, 2011, 08:25:02 PM
 #1074

Doesn't want to stop going up today. I was informally playing with a spread betting demo and I thought there was going to be a tiny reversal but suddenly in a single tick it goes over the previous high for the day and I luckily make back my virtual losses by holding a long position. Then I got bored.  Grin

gold/silver and the miners did a good job today of leading the reversal in stocks.  NEM is at new highs.  you guys have a decent chance of getting up over the old highs but i'd keep longs on a tight leash.
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November 08, 2011, 02:13:55 AM
 #1075

Thanks for your answer. Isn't your strategy to have long term investment in physical and then use put options to take advantage of the temporary bearish turns? That seems like a good idea.

Yes. Buying calls works on the bull runs as well, but as suggested - be wary of ETFs and rely more on closely-tracking equities. As PM prices are declining, buy near the end of US trading sessions, preferably after Wednesdays or Thursdays. Since they're rising right now, just hold until previous highs are approached or exceeded along with elevated media attention - that draws in additional momentum buying that forms the wall bullion banks need to sell into.

Doesn't want to stop going up today.

This is where the stair-step pattern takes hold. There won't be notable corrections or retracements worth acting on until momentum has exhausted. Just be ready to start scaling out of long positions and into shorts. I'm still looking at a target range of $2,000-$2,400.

gold/silver and the miners did a good job today of leading the reversal in stocks.  NEM is at new highs.  you guys have a decent chance of getting up over the old highs but i'd keep longs on a tight leash.

Tuesday, CoT cutoff. There might be a hit on the PM prices, but the momentum has hardly built up yet; there's much farther to go. Too tight a leash and you'll be knocked out well before lift-off. Hard to say what'll happen to the broader equity markets...
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November 08, 2011, 03:01:28 PM
 #1076

Nice:

1.  $DXY down
2.  UST's down
3.  stocks up
4.  oil up
5.  PM's?-while i'm not short (haven't been since i said i took them down) i can't get myself to go long them either.  as long as the $DXY keeps dropping one can say they'll keep going up.  watch out tho cuz we just went over the 61.8% Fib which could represent a rejection point.  watch the Dow/Gold ratio carefully.  
6.  sovereign bond selloff continues.

still long triple levers and short UST's via TBT since 10/6.
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November 08, 2011, 06:49:33 PM
 #1077

Hallelujah!
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November 09, 2011, 04:48:32 PM
 #1078

highly consider BTFD.
MatthewLM
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November 09, 2011, 06:51:38 PM
 #1079

For gold? It's going sideways basically so no real dip there but that doesn't mean you shouldn't buy. It's a good time to buy as always it seems.

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November 09, 2011, 10:42:19 PM
 #1080

So....what now? How big would Italy's rescue package have to be, and is there any entity that could swing it besides the US Federal Reserve?

Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
But Bitcointalk & /r/bitcoin are heavily censored. bitco.in/forum, forum.bitcoin.com, and /r/btc are open.
Best info on Casascius coins: http://spotcoins.com/casascius
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