Bitcoin Forum
December 07, 2016, 04:52:55 PM *
News: Latest stable version of Bitcoin Core: 0.13.1  [Torrent].
 
   Home   Help Search Donate Login Register  
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 [22] 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Gold: I smell a trap  (Read 78456 times)
miscreanity
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1078


View Profile
September 02, 2011, 08:51:50 PM
 #421

Congratulations miscreanity.  Good to see you back.  Awesome few days for gold and silver.

Thanks and yes, quite an impressive few days indeed. I'm thinking Bitcoin will start to see gains in the near future as well (~3-6 month range), though ironically that's much more difficult to call than gold.
1481129575
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481129575

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481129575
Reply with quote  #2

1481129575
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1481129575
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1481129575

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1481129575
Reply with quote  #2

1481129575
Report to moderator
kjj
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1302



View Profile
September 02, 2011, 09:01:21 PM
 #422

I'm sure next week gold will push past $1900 again with Obama talking about increasing deficit spending on stupid job plans.

It came damn close to passing $1900 today.

p2pcoin: a USB/CD/PXE p2pool miner - 1N8ZXx2cuMzqBYSK72X4DAy1UdDbZQNPLf - todo
I routinely ignore posters with paid advertising in their sigs.  You should too.
bitcool
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1441

Live and enjoy experiments


View Profile
September 02, 2011, 10:02:41 PM
 #423

Everyone is going to be saying "head and shoulders pattern" now.
homer says you can use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true. same goes for chart patterns.

what I've been hearing is they'll make it a double tops.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
September 03, 2011, 12:45:16 PM
 #424

Congratulations miscreanity.  Good to see you back.  Awesome few days for gold and silver.

Thanks and yes, quite an impressive few days indeed. I'm thinking Bitcoin will start to see gains in the near future as well (~3-6 month range), though ironically that's much more difficult to call than gold.

out of curiosity; how well do you think you understand Bitcoin and its implications?
MatthewLM
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1092



View Profile WWW
September 03, 2011, 07:02:40 PM
 #425

Are you still betting on a short position cypherdoc?

Bitcoin Extra Wallet | Peercoin Android Wallet
BTC: 1D5A1q5d192j5gYuWiP3CSE5fcaaZxe6E9  PPC: PH7fVn1Xs7nkUFmdwCX2ZRYfLPCSwGxAq9
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
September 03, 2011, 07:22:45 PM
 #426

Are you still betting on a short position cypherdoc?

yeah, but its getting painful.  if we break out to new highs i'll take it down.

the slow early rise in the USD has me worried.
CurbsideProphet
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 672


View Profile
September 05, 2011, 04:43:33 AM
 #427

Not in-the-money. Wait until they're out of the money. As GLD rises above 240, puts around 200 should be under $1. Puts around the current range of 160-180 will definitely be pennies by then. At that point, buy puts at those ranges for about 6 months out and simply hold until the shorts make their next grand effort. Theta has a negligible effect here since we're looking at enormous volatility.

I see, I thought you were advising to buy those puts now.  By the same token then, are you buying out-of-the-money calls right now?  December GLD calls with a $240 strike are selling for roughly $1 a contract.  Just trying to gauge how confident you are in this move, buy doing both you would make money going both directions (assuming your call is correct of course).  I chose December options since you mention end of the year in an earlier post.

1ProphetnvP8ju2SxxRvVvyzCtTXDgLPJV
MatthewLM
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1092



View Profile WWW
September 05, 2011, 04:24:00 PM
 #428

Gold back at $1900 again.

Bitcoin Extra Wallet | Peercoin Android Wallet
BTC: 1D5A1q5d192j5gYuWiP3CSE5fcaaZxe6E9  PPC: PH7fVn1Xs7nkUFmdwCX2ZRYfLPCSwGxAq9
BitcoinBug
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 196


View Profile
September 05, 2011, 04:40:19 PM
 #429

This week is another turn window for Gold (the last window did produce a decline, but only temporary).

So I will go short again around 1880-1920$. Stop loss for me is above 1950 $, but I don't think it will reach it.


I'm interested what happened with this short position, is S3052 around?
And I haven't yet received a confirmation to our bet. We can also change it to 2 years 1200 gold/USD if it suits you better.
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
September 05, 2011, 05:06:13 PM
 #430

interesting. $DXY and UST futures up as well.  $DXY over 75. Might as well have ALL the safe havens rally together, eh?
S3052
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1946


BTC Up or Down? go to www.bullbearanalytics.com


View Profile WWW
September 05, 2011, 05:56:01 PM
 #431

I take the challenge: 1 BTC bet

OK. Just accept some sensible limits to it (because otherwise I can never win Wink) and the bet is on.
If gold crosses 1000 USD/oz anytime within 5 year span, you win, otherwise I win. Because I don't want to wait 5 years, let's say if it crosses 10000 USD/oz first, I also win. Deal? Smiley

Deal

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here
S3052
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1946


BTC Up or Down? go to www.bullbearanalytics.com


View Profile WWW
September 05, 2011, 05:56:51 PM
 #432

This week is another turn window for Gold (the last window did produce a decline, but only temporary).

So I will go short again around 1880-1920$. Stop loss for me is above 1950 $, but I don't think it will reach it.


I'm interested what happened with this short position, is S3052 around?
And I haven't yet received a confirmation to our bet. We can also change it to 2 years 1200 gold/USD if it suits you better.

Short position closed successfully with a gain of 117.19 points with good leverage. I will either take a new position tomorrow just under 1912 or wait until we may see another pop into the 2000-2100 area.

Here is the copy paste from my official trading account:
23/08/11   Gold Kassa   -   SELL   0.1   1884.49   1767.3

And, accepted the bet as well.



>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

Subscribe here
miscreanity
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1078


View Profile
September 05, 2011, 06:50:12 PM
 #433

what I've been hearing is they'll make it a double tops.

Yes, that's typically the next effort after a H&S pattern has failed to hold. When the double top fails to hold, the shorts retreat to the next level they can reasonably defend. I'd expect a push down by shorts early this week after a close today near $1900. Look for $1740 as a downside target again if the $1810-1840 range is breached. If selling, be extremely attentive.

out of curiosity; how well do you think you understand Bitcoin and its implications?

I would hope that my ruminations on Bitcoin offer a better gauge of that than self-assessment. For brevity's sake, let's just say that I see forms of direct democracy and an emergent collective consciousness a la Gaia theory as strong potentials for crypto-currency systems beyond their intended purposes. I'd imagine that would be the difference between animal awareness and sentience, only on a planetary scale.

That could be considered a singularity. From my view, the last singularity event was the emergence of human sentience and before that, eukaryotes.

I see, I thought you were advising to buy those puts now.  By the same token then, are you buying out-of-the-money calls right now?  December GLD calls with a $240 strike are selling for roughly $1 a contract.  Just trying to gauge how confident you are in this move, buy doing both you would make money going both directions (assuming your call is correct of course).  I chose December options since you mention end of the year in an earlier post.

Apologies, I should've been more specific. At the moment, no - I don't chase the price; calls are too expensive now relative to when the price of gold dipped near $1700 on the 25th of last month. That was when I had closed my short-term puts and opened additional Jan 2012 calls. Most of the options are in GLD, GDX/GDXJ, SLV and SLW. I use very small short positions compared to my calls for profiting from minor corrections. It also helps to offset negative Theta.

This rise and the next decline might be the last time I make use of GLD/SLV on the way up because of concerns about physical movement of metal in the trusts behind the scenes. That depends on how much metal is drawn down during the next decline relative to how much is added from now until then. I'd rather be on the short side of those ETFs when the paper and physical prices diverge than caught with calls on a rapidly-declining paper "asset", not to mention the possibility of a bank holiday with markets closed.

Your December calls should be good. I expect the real plunge to take place by the middle of 4th quarter (prior to November options expiration), wiping out most new entrants from $1900-2000 on up. At the breach of $2000, I'll be closing enough of my calls to cover all expenses including commissions and will not be buying any additional calls. Above $2100 is when I'll start buying puts as close to $0.10 or under as possible. Over $2400 is when I'll start buying GLD puts in quantity between $160-200, again around $0.10 or under.

During that rise, I'll be scaling out of my long call positions as well, using about half of the profits to fund the put buying. Focus must be maintained on the fact that this is trading, not investing for the long-term. If that were the case, I'd be suggesting a simple buy-and-hold strategy with physical metal and quality dividend-paying miners such as AG, FCX, GFI and GG or the Tocqueville gold fund (TGLDX). Royalty companies would include RGLD, SLW and TRX. The best junior miner list is Gene Arensberg's at the Got Gold Report.

Remember to let the deals come to you. Options for $1 might seem good now, but focus on quantity of contracts within a defined range (GLD $160-200) rather than perceived value. High volatility will be what brings in the bacon. I'd prefer 1,000 puts bought at $0.10 than 100 for $1.00. Even a conservative estimate of the numbers from on high to a low should put the options in excess of $10 valuation. That would be the difference between $90,000 return and $990,000. You can see the tremendous impact should the options rise in value to $20, $30 or even more than $50.

This type of gold trading analysis should be available on Noble Nomads periodically. Another service I've found to be very effective, though less aggressive, is SK Options.

The math, for anyone not familiar with options:

Quote
Equity option contracts allow for leverage without requiring margin trading. They are typically priced per share and a transaction normally involves 100 shares, so a $1 option is: ($1/option) * (100 shares) = $100 per contract.

$1 * (100 shares) = $100 contract
(100 contracts) * ($100/contract) = $10,000 invested

$0.10 * (100 shares) = $10 contract
(1,000 contracts) * ($10/contract) = $10,000 invested

Commissions will obviously be significantly greater, but should remain manageable. For instance, at $2 commission per contract 1,000 contracts would cost $2,000. That would bring the latter example's total to $12,000. In that case, to keep the total cost at about $10,000, a position with 833 contracts could be opened resulting in:

(833 contracts) * ($10/contract) = $8,330 invested + $1,666 commission = $9,996 total

Assuming a reasonable increase in option valuation to $10 (from $0.10 or $1 as above), considering a hypothetical decline in GLD from $240 to $170:

$10 * (100 shares) = $1,000 contract
(100 contracts) * ($1,000/contract) = $100,000 return

Having bought 100 contracts for $10,000, profit before commissions would be $90,000.

$10 * (100 shares) = $1,000 contract
(1,000 contracts) * ($1,000/contract) = $1,000,000 return

Having bought 1,000 contracts for $10,000, profit before commissions would be $990,000.

Market liquidity is another factor in being able to obtain an asking price of $10 or more, but interest is increasing along with capital flow. That should provide sufficient influx to sell when emotions run hot and everyone is calling gold a bubble again.

As always, learn about options and preferably paper trade before investing actual money.

interesting. $DXY and UST futures up as well.  $DXY over 75. Might as well have ALL the safe havens rally together, eh?

Today is a US holiday. Treasuries are up on virtually non-existant volume while the dollar is at about 1/3rd of its normal. Both have been seeing declining volume during their rallies; not suggestive of continuation. There will have to be some devastating developments in Europe or elsewhere for the dollar to close over 76. Until then, it's an uphill battle.

The higher the dollar and treasuries close today, the better the chances of a boost tomorrow if gold is brought down to any significant degree. Not that such an effort would realistically provide any more than temporary support.
BitcoinBug
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 196


View Profile
September 05, 2011, 10:09:34 PM
 #434

This week is another turn window for Gold (the last window did produce a decline, but only temporary).

So I will go short again around 1880-1920$. Stop loss for me is above 1950 $, but I don't think it will reach it.


I'm interested what happened with this short position, is S3052 around?
And I haven't yet received a confirmation to our bet. We can also change it to 2 years 1200 gold/USD if it suits you better.

Short position closed successfully with a gain of 117.19 points with good leverage. I will either take a new position tomorrow just under 1912 or wait until we may see another pop into the 2000-2100 area.

Here is the copy paste from my official trading account:
23/08/11   Gold Kassa   -   SELL   0.1   1884.49   1767.3

And, accepted the bet as well.


Very nice, thanks for the update!
MatthewLM
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1092



View Profile WWW
September 05, 2011, 10:16:39 PM
 #435

S3052, you made money on this short position but you still think there will be a major gold crash at some point? Good for you you didn't go short for the long term thinking there was a turning point for gold into a downtrend like cypherdoc appears to have believed.

Bitcoin Extra Wallet | Peercoin Android Wallet
BTC: 1D5A1q5d192j5gYuWiP3CSE5fcaaZxe6E9  PPC: PH7fVn1Xs7nkUFmdwCX2ZRYfLPCSwGxAq9
Ten98
Full Member
***
Offline Offline

Activity: 201



View Profile
September 05, 2011, 10:56:36 PM
 #436

S3052, you made money on this short position but you still think there will be a major gold crash at some point? Good for you you didn't go short for the long term thinking there was a turning point for gold into a downtrend like cypherdoc appears to have believed.

There's a long way to go until the downtrend. $2500 at least.
MatthewLM
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1092



View Profile WWW
September 05, 2011, 11:08:52 PM
 #437

In the foreseeable future I can only see it go up against fiat currencies. Can't predict how the universe will turn however.

Bitcoin Extra Wallet | Peercoin Android Wallet
BTC: 1D5A1q5d192j5gYuWiP3CSE5fcaaZxe6E9  PPC: PH7fVn1Xs7nkUFmdwCX2ZRYfLPCSwGxAq9
Dusty
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 722


Libertas a calumnia


View Profile WWW
September 06, 2011, 06:20:41 AM
 #438

I'd be suggesting a simple buy-and-hold strategy with physical metal and quality dividend-paying miners such as AG, FCX, GFI and GG or the Tocqueville gold fund (TGLDX). Royalty companies would include RGLD, SLW and TRX.
Thanks for this suggestions, FCX in particular seems a very interesting stock.
But speaking of dividend-paying, why you suggest AG and TRX that never paid one?

OT: Anyone knows how to have a list of stocks orderd by yield for example on yahoo finance or google finance?

Articoli bitcoin: Il portico dipinto
cypherdoc
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1764



View Profile
September 06, 2011, 11:07:30 AM
 #439

S3052, you made money on this short position but you still think there will be a major gold crash at some point? Good for you you didn't go short for the long term thinking there was a turning point for gold into a downtrend like cypherdoc appears to have believed.

so MatthewLM, are you still long?
MatthewLM
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1092



View Profile WWW
September 06, 2011, 12:49:50 PM
 #440

Yes.

While it seems gold will go down from here there are factors which could push it higher through the week. Interestingly the swiss central bank is now trying to devalue the swiss franc. Later today the US markets are set to fall. Obama will announce more deficit spending on Thursday for sure. Today there was a bounce back in European stocks but those stocks don't look good to me.

Is it wise to think gold will continue to rise further this week before another correction or has it reached the short term top already?

From what I see gold when down a lot earlier today but shot back up again around about when the news came about the Swiss franc but it's not gone back to it's earlier highs.

Bitcoin Extra Wallet | Peercoin Android Wallet
BTC: 1D5A1q5d192j5gYuWiP3CSE5fcaaZxe6E9  PPC: PH7fVn1Xs7nkUFmdwCX2ZRYfLPCSwGxAq9
Pages: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 [22] 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!