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Author Topic: Gold: I smell a trap  (Read 78508 times)
MatthewLM
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September 06, 2011, 09:25:01 PM
 #461

I'm still surprised the news about the swiss franc had such a counter intuitive effect.

Counter intuitive? CHF value dropped 8% precisely to 1.2 EUR after the Swiss bank announced they will print unlimited numbers of CHF in order to peg 1.2 EUR. I'd say the market reacted symphonically.

But this has me convinced gold will continue higher and higher still. Even the strong currencies are devaluating. Unless the US defaults, I don't see any upper limit to gold and silver. Yes, I'm an inflationist.

The Euro/Swiss Franc rate makes sense, yes. I was referring to gold. The price didn't even at least sustain itself. You'd expect gold to go up with a competing "safe haven" destroyed.

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cypherdoc
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September 07, 2011, 04:24:01 AM
 #462

oops.  the selloff has begun!
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September 07, 2011, 04:29:00 AM
 #463

all you GLD/SLV holders are gonna get a nasty gap down in the AM.
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September 07, 2011, 04:49:25 AM
 #464

Oh yeah, DOUBLE TOP!!! SELL, SELL, SELL!!!
... and thank you for selling Grin
cypherdoc
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September 07, 2011, 05:02:28 AM
 #465

and the $DXY begins its next ascent...
cypherdoc
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September 07, 2011, 05:31:30 AM
 #466

the double top is a VERY bearish formation.  it means that if you don't get out now, you won't get another chance b/c it ain't coming back up.
cypherdoc
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September 07, 2011, 05:47:16 AM
 #467

as a corollary to a gold/silver top, i'd consider getting your Bitcoin Rally hats on.  if even a fraction of that money decides to flow our way, we could see the beginnings of a big rally.

edit:  in other words the mirror image of a double top in gold would be a double bottom in Bitcoin which appears to me to be forming.
miscreanity
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September 07, 2011, 05:52:37 AM
 #468

the double top is a VERY bearish formation.  it means that if you don't get out now, you won't get another chance b/c it ain't coming back up.

The dollar index hasn't moved; pressure on gold began exactly on the hour mark and culminated in a vertical drop during a typically quiet period. Remember the triple-top in 2010 around the $1420 level? What about the double-top in March of this year, or later in June? Maybe all the other double tops during the past decade with the same behind-the-scenes developments as now?

Why hasn't oil fallen? Why didn't the dollar or any other currency experience volatility? Are only the precious metals involved? Where is the selling coming from with virtually no volume?

The only thing I see is forced liquidation of weak positions, a commensurate price decline and a large drop in futures open interest on vapor volume that screams of short covering. What's particularly intriguing is that this is an odd time for such an attack to take place. There's almost always a major event just around the corner. The London open ought to be interesting.

I'll teach you patience yet. Smiley

Oh yeah, DOUBLE TOP!!! SELL, SELL, SELL!!!
... and thank you for selling Grin

I wonder which master artist is painting the tape...
cypherdoc
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September 07, 2011, 06:00:12 AM
 #469


The dollar index hasn't moved

the last 5d the $DXY has exploded to the top of the horizontal channel.  i'd call that a move.

Why hasn't oil fallen?

whats it been doing since May 2?

Why didn't the dollar or any other currency experience volatility? Are only the precious metals involved? Where is the selling coming from with virtually no volume?

The only thing I see is forced liquidation of weak positions, a commensurate price decline and a large drop in futures open interest on vapor volume that screams of short covering. What's particularly intriguing is that this is an odd time for such an attack to take place. There's almost always a major event just around the corner. The London open ought to be interesting.

this is the classic time for such a move.  its a continuation of today's selloff and is an ideal time to exert enormous pressure on the market when the retail investors aren't around.  the gap down in the AM is gonna cause a panic.  you watch.

I'll teach you patience yet. Smiley

and i'll teach you how markets work Smiley

miscreanity
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September 07, 2011, 06:44:50 AM
 #470

the last 5d the $DXY has exploded to the top of the horizontal channel.  i'd call that a move.

It didn't budge during gold's drop two and a half hours ago, and the 5-day old USD move is running out of steam.

whats it been doing since May 2?

Again, oil didn't move during the most recent dip in gold.

Brent has been consolidating. WTI has been finding consistently stronger support at each decline. What will WTI do without administrative trickery and perpetual oversupply of one particular regional storage center that heavily influences the price?

this is the classic time for such a move.  its a continuation of today's selloff and is an ideal time to exert enormous pressure on the market when the retail investors aren't around.  the gap down in the AM is gonna cause a panic.  you watch.

That makes no sense. Selling into a decline will only fetch progressively worse prices for the seller. If profit is the motivation, this is the last thing that would be done. The seller would be selling as the price is rising, not falling, or else it'll be bleeding red ink and won't be around long - and you don't get to be a big fish by making those kind of moves.

You're right about this kind of move causing a panic, although I suspect that most weak longs will have already been knocked out of the game. Downside should be limited with heavy buying below $1810 as explained two days ago.

Serendipitously, Dan Norcini posted already. All we need now is another GLD Puke Indicator buy signal at the close of next trading session to make this frightfully reminiscent of late 2008. It triggered once in early Sept '08, then a week later on two consecutive days. After a brief rally, it triggered a fourth time and really took off.

and i'll teach you how markets work Smiley

Uh-huh... lol Smiley
miscreanity
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September 07, 2011, 07:08:03 AM
 #471

The Euro/Swiss Franc rate makes sense, yes. I was referring to gold. The price didn't even at least sustain itself. You'd expect gold to go up with a competing "safe haven" destroyed.

This is ancient warfare in modern times. I'm now wondering which major announcement will act as the spark to set off the next round of financial mayhem. It's blatantly apparent that something is brewing behind the scenes, but it's being much more closely guarded this time as compared to the Lehman failure.

Apparent contradiction between the behavior of gold in relation to the SNB announcement is pretty well explained by a comparison of ancient stratagems to gold manipulation today. In particular:

Quote
Replace the beams with rotten timbers - In addition to the above, strong players can then use sufficient clout to make the price action appear to run counter to what would be expected in reaction to news and events. This further confuses and disorients less experienced investors.

May of this year in silver and the latter half of August for gold was "stomping the grass to scare the snakes" while the SNB denying intervention plans a week ago, then doing exactly that intervention yesterday was an obvious use of "making a sound in the east, then striking in the west".

Speaking of which, Switzerland has been on a steady decline in regard to the sanctity of its banking sector. This week should remove all doubt about the Swiss banks having finally capitulated to US influence. Anyone thinking of banking there needs to be extremely careful.
cypherdoc
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September 07, 2011, 02:09:56 PM
 #472

Uh-huh... lol Smiley

10:1 you've bought put protection this AM, haven't you?  be honest Smiley
cypherdoc
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September 07, 2011, 02:17:24 PM
 #473

S3052, you made money on this short position but you still think there will be a major gold crash at some point? Good for you you didn't go short for the long term thinking there was a turning point for gold into a downtrend like cypherdoc appears to have believed.

yeah, and i left the shorts on with maximal leverage with a margin call due tomorrow if we hadn't dumped today.  looks like i won't have to bother Smiley
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September 07, 2011, 02:25:53 PM
 #474

this down move has even more "motive" strength than the 2d a coupla weeks ago.  to me this means this is the "real deal".
MatthewLM
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September 07, 2011, 04:58:54 PM
 #475

S3052, you made money on this short position but you still think there will be a major gold crash at some point? Good for you you didn't go short for the long term thinking there was a turning point for gold into a downtrend like cypherdoc appears to have believed.

yeah, and i left the shorts on with maximal leverage with a margin call due tomorrow if we hadn't dumped today.  looks like i won't have to bother Smiley

I'd exit these short positions myself. Didn't you say you were using a leveraged short gold futures ETF? Were you using a leveraged short gold futures ETF with additional leverage? Shocked

@miscreanity: I'm sure you are right. It's manipulation in all sorts of froms making gold go up and down like a roller-coaster right now. It's possible because of all the events which are going on right now.

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cypherdoc
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September 07, 2011, 05:02:49 PM
 #476

since a metaphor has been proposed for whats happening i guess i'll throw out one myself.

when miscreanity and i were kids the greatest mano-a-mano matchup was not Ali vs Frazier, not Team Canada vs the USSR, and not Jimmy Connors vs. John McEnroe.

it was the young, charismatic challenger Bobby Fischer vs. the old, stodgy, brilliant reigning world champion Boris Spassky in 1972 for the World Championship of Chess.  they represented not just the US vs the USSR but also the East vs. West, Communism vs. Democracy, Socialism vs Freedom, the Red Army vs. Uncle Sam.

now Spassky was a great Grandmaster, an expert in all the openings, middle games, and closings, able to crush all opponents with his patient methodical expertise. Spassky's reign as world champion lasted three years, but then he lost to Fischer of the United States in 1972 in the "Match of the Century".

the thing about Fischer was that he was brilliant and creative, and cunningly unpredictable.  a match would be going along and suddenly Fischer would make a move that would make the crowd and commentators sit up in their seats and go "Say WHAT?" you could see the corner of Spassky's mouth curl up in a snicker as if to say "i gotcha".  sure enough as the ensuing moves played out, Spassky's confidence turned to frustration and then fear and finally defeat.  he was never the same.

you may think i'm nuts to go against miscreanity, FOFOA, Jim Rickards, Dan Norcini, Eric King, Jim Puplava, Jim Sinclair, Nouriel Roubini, Mish, Dave Rosenberg, James Turk, David Einhorn, Ben Davies, Eric Degroot, Pierre Lasonde, Gerald Celente, Peter Schiff, Ken Ivory, Eric Sprott, Antal Fekete, Bill Fleckenstein, Bill Murray, John Embry, Rick Rule, Doug Casey, Michael Pento, Mark Faber, John Embry, Felix Zulauf, John Hathaway, Rob Arnott, Jean Marie Eveillard, etc, etc, etc.  And perhaps i am.  after all, who the hell is cypherdoc anyway?  just an anonymous voice on the Internet.

but one thing i know about markets is that when i can spout off a list of players like that off the top of my head that means everyone is on one side of the boat.  i prefer the other side.
cypherdoc
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September 07, 2011, 05:07:08 PM
 #477

S3052, you made money on this short position but you still think there will be a major gold crash at some point? Good for you you didn't go short for the long term thinking there was a turning point for gold into a downtrend like cypherdoc appears to have believed.

yeah, and i left the shorts on with maximal leverage with a margin call due tomorrow if we hadn't dumped today.  looks like i won't have to bother Smiley

I'd exit these short positions myself. Didn't you say you were using a leveraged short gold futures ETF? Were you using a leveraged short gold futures ETF with additional leverage? Shocked

@miscreanity: I'm sure you are right. It's manipulation in all sorts of froms making gold go up and down like a roller-coaster right now. It's possible because of all the events which are going on right now.

yes its leverage on top of leverage.  DZZ and ZSL.

edit:  of course i have routine shorts on SLW, PAAS and GG.
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September 07, 2011, 05:23:35 PM
 #478

Bitcoin slowly moving up.  i like this setup.
MatthewLM
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September 07, 2011, 05:25:54 PM
 #479

Quote
yes its leverage on top of leverage.  DZZ and ZSL.

Gosh, Tongue

Here's the proof for the manipulation:




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cypherdoc
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September 07, 2011, 05:35:06 PM
 #480

sure there's manipulation.  thats a fundamental part of my OP.  the problem the inflationists and gold bulls have is that the Fed has the power to shut off liquidity anytime it wants.  it can destroy gold just by changing their minds.  Ben is human; i'm sure he's sensitive to all the criticism and hates the fact he's been so predictable since he's been Chairman.  you need to think in terms of game theory or like a criminal.  what's he gonna do?  destroy the USA via the USD and have that as his legacy? 

there will never be the Greatest Transfer of Wealth in History like you guys hope.  gold will not go to $35000.  i doubt it will ever reach $2000.  that was the perfect mirage to put in front of the bulls.  i think your outstretched hands will never reach it.
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