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Author Topic: Gold: I smell a trap  (Read 78650 times)
cypherdoc
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September 21, 2011, 07:56:21 PM
 #661

USD up, everything else down. 
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September 21, 2011, 07:59:45 PM
 #662

i was just thinking.  tonite might be a good time for one of those gold selloffs/attacks like we had before. just thinking like a criminal.  we'll see.
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September 21, 2011, 08:20:59 PM
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@miscreanity:  i REALLY like your Yen theory.  now you're thinking like a criminal!  i have been watching the USD/JPY as part of my USD rally theory of course but i hadn't really parsed it together as being perhaps another wave in the coordinated CB intervention to force the USD up and everyone else's currency down.

in fact, i have been assuming that as the Swiss buy Euros to peg, the ECB has been buying USD's to weaken the Euro while forcing the USD up.  this linking makes infinite sense to me so that Europe doesn't suffer too much from the Swiss intervention.  you filled in the last piece nicely b/c the Fed, ECB, and BOJ are the real failed Troika.  the USA is the only economy in the world right now that can withstand an appreciating currency.  everyone else is in desperate need of devaluation not to mention the "save the USD hegemonic system" theory of mine.

note in my chart above the perfect double bottom along with a descending wedge the USD/JPY cross had formed.  thats a one hour 90 day chart.

edit:  i especially like this theory b/c Axel Merk, another inflationist, just revealed moving his currency fund into the Yen.  and you know how those inflationists are going to fair in the coming deflation Smiley
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September 21, 2011, 09:00:43 PM
 #664

You think deflation is a bad thing? And inflation (Controlled by or benefits the bankers) is a good thing?

You talked before about the federal reserve stopping its inflationary policies. But you said you weren't saying the banks will kill themselves on purpose.

You think the banks think that removing the inflation is OK for them or something?

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September 21, 2011, 09:21:05 PM
 #665

uhmmm, about that emerging mkt thing.  EEM off 26%, FXI off 30%.  Dow off 14%.  4 yr weekly charts.




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September 21, 2011, 10:08:24 PM
 #666

the Fed, ECB, and BOJ are the real failed Troika.

That they definitely are. No other currencies can withstand global capital flows as readily without there being major disturbances in national economies. The Aussie is sizable, but experiencing 10% swings over the course of a couple of months is insane.

A problem exists with the Yen link, in that there might be a situation of diminishing returns as each of the major currencies are rotated through to provide USD support. It comes back to uncertainty and stability again. If capital starts flowing into gold (and silver) as well as JPY, both USD and gold will rise together.

Each time this wave moves back and forth, gold picks up additional flows. This is exactly the same as the flows into Bitcoin. What's good for Bitcoin is good for gold, especially if the fiat depreciation and/or destabilization continues - whether inflation or deflation take the stage. Deflationary phases just give gold and Bitcoin a rest during their rise.

Don't discount the way Bitcoin interacts with gold. Instead, figure out how they will interact. Gold isn't going to just disappear.
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September 21, 2011, 11:20:01 PM
 #667

I believe bitcoin should be a safe hedge and that everyone's an idiot for not buying it up. BUT I just don't see it yet. Bitcoin seems completely detached from other markets. Chodpaba was watching a DJI connection for a while, but that was short lived. Do you see any btc patterns already?

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September 21, 2011, 11:42:11 PM
 #668

I believe bitcoin should be a safe hedge and that everyone's an idiot for not buying it up. BUT I just don't see it yet. Bitcoin seems completely detached from other markets. Chodpaba was watching a DJI connection for a while, but that was short lived. Do you see any btc patterns already?

Bitcoin had a MACD cross 2d ago along with upturning of RSI and Slow Stochs.  the trend has changed.
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September 22, 2011, 02:31:15 AM
 #669

I meant in relationship to gold, stocks, and the international market. But, yes, I've noticed the btc indicators look much like 16 August and noticed we've been scraping/bouncing above the one year support trend.


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cypherdoc
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September 22, 2011, 03:28:11 AM
 #670

I meant in relationship to gold, stocks, and the international market. But, yes, I've noticed the btc indicators look much like 16 August and noticed we've been scraping/bouncing above the one year support trend.



i've not noticed any definite pattern.
cypherdoc
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September 22, 2011, 05:45:15 AM
 #671

/GC breaking down out of the triangle:

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September 22, 2011, 06:16:26 AM
 #672

I believe bitcoin should be a safe hedge and that everyone's an idiot for not buying it up. BUT I just don't see it yet. Bitcoin seems completely detached from other markets. Chodpaba was watching a DJI connection for a while, but that was short lived. Do you see any btc patterns already?

Bitcoin had a MACD cross 2d ago along with upturning of RSI and Slow Stochs.  the trend has changed.

I agree. The technical picture has turned to the bullish side.
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cypherdoc
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September 22, 2011, 11:11:43 AM
 #673

my gaud, do you really want to stand in front of this train?
and they haven't even pulled the USD/JPY trigger yet.

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September 22, 2011, 11:21:45 AM
 #674

the psychology of yesterdays FOMC decision was one for the ages.  Ben, for the third time now (1st being last June when he didn't extend QE2, 2nd last FOMC, 3rd yesterday) demonstrated that he will NOT print USD to save the economy.  the UST swap was net neutral and the Agency to MBS rollover is only a drop in the bucket of about 10-12 billion which he was already essentially doing per month.  these are just gestures that he is doing something.

i'm fully convinced the CB's are trying to save the USD and gold bulls have a red target painted on their foreheads.  in contrast to miscreanity, i don't believe that gold/silver will just grind higher with each wave of boom bust that we go thru.  we are entering a BIG bust cycle, wave 3 down deflation that will probably take out 3/09 lows, but i think the biggest and last standing bull of gold/silver will swing all the way to the bust side back down to mid triple digits.  Bitcoin will be the one that arises from the ashes.  it fits.

edit: even one of my favorites, David Rosenberg, contributed to last weeks runup by calling for something HUGE from Ben.  a pure deflationist lured by Ben's siren song.  he got smashed unlike us.  i was balls to the walls short going into the FOMC.  the market was sorely disappointed and now we are free to enter another down phase in everything except the USD and UST's.
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September 22, 2011, 11:36:49 AM
 #675

well, what i see in the longterm Bitcoin daily chart is a huge descending wedge with a terminating double bottom and big volume washout spike which should break UP.
miscreanity
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September 22, 2011, 03:31:27 PM
 #676

/GC breaking down out of the triangle:

Yes, it's exactly what was expected, only a day late. The gap under $1,680 still defines the area that will build the next long-term consolidation/support level. Until it can be filled, buying demand remains (confirmed by activity and numbers behind the scenes) and a spike high is still in the cards. The bull trend in gold has not changed.

Every time a major triangle breakout to the downside has hit, it's been in the face of increasing buying pressure. A price collapse doesn't gain steam when running into a base like that. Besides, $50 daily ranges have been typical of late, so the latest drop has been nothing major - in fact, considering what it took to make the dip occur, I see it as a buying opportunity (esp. GDXJ, RGLD).

Japanese intervention has been officially denied. That generally means it is more likely to occur in the near future, but if it isn't used within days, I think that may be withheld to put a damper on the next spike in gold's price. If it took a global unwinding to knock gold down 5% (esp. when 10-20% in one day would've been expected, as happened in 2008), the greatest effect of a JPY devaluation wouldn't be seen until another rise.

Holding off gold's buying demand for as long as possible and preventing a breach of $2,000 is more important than crushing it. There's too much buying demand to do that for long, though: the pressure must be released at higher prices to entice strong holders into selling.

I'm expecting the GLD Puke Indicator to trigger this week. Also of note is that GOFO rates (outside the US) have steadily risen to well over double what they were six weeks ago - indicative of increasing demand.

Even more interesting is that, on August 22nd, the GOFO rates for 3 months and longer took a dive while the 1-2 month shot up. To kick those rates around like that means that a lot of gold was needed somewhere for the next month or two: September and October; the months that are showing extreme levels of delivery orders in both gold and silver.

At present, there are over 300,000 open futures contracts that could stand for delivery this December. Even with the volatility in gold over the past few weeks, very few of the longs holding those contracts have been shaken out. If a little over 5% of those contracts are delivery requests, the COMEX would be wiped out. Normally, plenty of contracts close before then, but with recent action many longs are staying and requesting delivery. It wouldn't be surprising at this point to see 20-30% stand for delivery, which is why reducing the 300k open interest is so critical.

The games we're seeing now are efforts to reduce that 300k long position. Seeing as how there have been repeated failures to do so, a final option is to relent on selling pressure and allow price to rise so that some of those longs take paper profits. Since paper can be conjured by keyboard and handed out like Pez, that's a far better short-term solution than a bullion bank or commodity exchange default.

One issue with that is the paper profits may be employed in purchasing gold outside of the commodity bourses (just as China has been using its US debt reserves to finance real asset acquisition around the world and even bail out Europe), leading to reduced availability for the exchanges to supply further long contract holders in the future. The cycle continues with prices rising each time. This is a lose-lose situation.
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September 22, 2011, 03:49:06 PM
 #677

Silver is an even bigger trap (I gave an alert this morning and now we see what happened...

http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/stocks-metals-etc.html

A big party for the bears... which is far from over.

We can get prepared to collect silver and gold coins below 10$ and 1000$ respectively.

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cypherdoc
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September 22, 2011, 04:19:58 PM
 #678

http://www.federalreserve.gov/datadownload/Chart.aspx?rel=Z1&series=4ae60d75ab9a4da4e0cf4a6dea9ebb6f&lastObs=&from=12/01/1945&to=06/30/2011&filetype=spreadsheetml&label=include&layout=seriescolumn&pp=Download

look at Households and nonprofit organizations categories; do you think those hook downs represent a change in trend or just a temporary blip in an ongoing linear rise?
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September 22, 2011, 04:57:52 PM
 #679

http://oregoneconomicanalysis.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/reinhart_rogoff_update1.pdf

"just your garden variety severe financial crisis"

edit:  problem with this assessment is that we're exiting the eye of the storm and things are gonna get much worse the next 5-10 yrs.  we're gonna eclipse all records by the time we're done.
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September 22, 2011, 06:10:11 PM
 #680

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2011/09/gold-double-top-start-of-correction.html

they've even given it a name!
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