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Author Topic: Gold: I smell a trap  (Read 44333 times)
cypherdoc
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November 10, 2011, 02:15:53 AM
 #1081

So....what now? How big would Italy's rescue package have to be, and is there any entity that could swing it besides the US Federal Reserve?

all i have to say after todays action is f*ck.

i was hoping once we got out of the bear flag volatility would settle down some with a steady rise of the major indices up over the 5/11 highs.  but obviously the bad news is pervasive with the sovereign debt problems in Europe getting worse.  such is the hazard of investing and i hope anyone following my advice didn't get hurt too bad today.  

seriously, all i'm trying to do here is help everyone along with what i see in the markets.  i'm not naive enough to pump stocks hoping that the few of you here who might follow my advice would make any difference in market action.  what i say here is what i truly believe and i'm putting my money where my mouth is so you can take comfort knowing i got stuffed good today.

having said all that i still think we're going up and will clear the 5/11 highs.  10/4 represented a confluence of cycle bottoms from a seasonal, intermediate and short term basis and sentiment was at lows.  short interest was up and everyone was expecting wave 3 down.  most of the year had been negative from May.  when we did a headfake down out of the flag with a reversal my thinking changed.  the UST double top also helped.  then we get the best one month rally since 1976 and i think that was important.  granted it takes balls to invest in this market based on the technicals but i think that the amount of fundamental variables at this point cannot be measured in any meaningful transparent way to determine exactly which direction we're headed.

i also think that we could be at a long term juncture where sovereign debt is being rejected in favor of equity.  i've said throughout this thread that gov't debt acts like a black hole sucking productive capital into it at the expense of the private sector.  guys like Gary Shilling have made a fortune investing in UST's for 30 f*cking years.  this can't continue.  if this mentality reverses, and i think it is, then this should be bullish for stocks as this would align well with my cycle work.  stocks have gone nowhere for a decade and i think the 2 remaining biggest bulls, UST's and pm's have, or nearly have, begun their selloff IMO.  don't forget that this sovereign debt selloff continued today but instead of the fiat being plowed immediately into stocks it went into USD's and UST's.  but as soon as tomorrow investors could then choose to plow these same USD's into stocks.   as long as we don't dive back down into the bear flag i'm still bullish.  

when you invest the way i am with cycle work you have to think in terms of weeks/months/years despite what happened today.  if we get over the 5/11 highs i will be looking for some significant divergences that would represent the beginning of a failure.  for us to get over those highs i am also looking for the $DXY to dive below the 3/08 lows.  these are HUGE and risky calls on my part so don't forget you get what you pay for and children shouldn't try this at home.  if i'm right tho the payoff will be huge as well.  don't forget that bull markets do their best to try and shake you off.

don't forget that at this pt all it takes is for the ECB to whisper that it will start monetizing bonds for the market to ramp like a mofo to kill the shorts.  if they don't inflate the market will blow up and we'll enter wave 3 down from 2008 and the 2nd Great Depression will begin as S3052 is calling for.
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November 10, 2011, 03:05:57 AM
 #1082

Hey Cypherdoc, I have not been studying the stock market and my charts don't go back very far, but it looks to me that DJI climbs five waves since 2009 (after what was clearly a major correction) with today perhaps midway through a sideways correction. This implies both a bounce back down to the summer lows as well as a large third wave rally much later. What's Prechter saying these days -- Head and shoulders since the late 90's?

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November 10, 2011, 04:48:55 AM
 #1083

Hey Cypherdoc, I have not been studying the stock market and my charts don't go back very far, but it looks to me that DJI climbs five waves since 2009 (after what was clearly a major correction) with today perhaps midway through a sideways correction. This implies both a bounce back down to the summer lows as well as a large third wave rally much later. What's Prechter saying these days -- Head and shoulders since the late 90's?

good timing.  he issued an interim report today that i just finished reading. 

he thinks it down from here for good.  him or me? Grin
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November 10, 2011, 01:59:29 PM
 #1084

That's the way it feels. On the other hand, we're experiencing the first major sideways correction in at least 40 years (Google and Yahoo don't provide older data). Gloom and disappointment should be expected in a II or IV wave. That doesn't nec. mean we've finished V and are heading down. Of course, Pretcher's been calling the peak since the 90's. He's certainly looking at numerous old time scales.

Bitcoiners should know by now that corrections take two polar forms, dramatic sharp falls and drawn out sideways corrections. It could be several years before we hit 7000 on the Dow, or Lehmann Greece Europe could collapse tomorrow.

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November 10, 2011, 02:08:39 PM
 #1085

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/daily-us-opening-news-and-market-re-cap-november-10

remember what i said about "whispers" above?  stock futures back up.  hopefully, for me, they hold and we continue the uptrend.
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November 10, 2011, 04:20:16 PM
 #1086

basically all yesterday did was to begin to create a bull flag which, based on the move up off the 10/4 lows, should continue upward.  

i like the fact that pm's AND UST's are down as that represents 2 sources of USD's to be reallocated toward stocks.

edit:  not to mention that $DXY is down.
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November 10, 2011, 04:52:13 PM
 #1087

if i'm right and we're forming a bull flag, then according to Elliott Wave, this would be wave 2 off the bottom with a big wave 3 up to follow which are typically the longest and strongest.

i can easily see the fundamentals play out this way with the ECB announcing somewhere along the line here a formal monetization plan for sovereign bonds.

the other reason i'm so bullish is that the CDS buyers have been stuffed big time by the ISDA.  all these insurance contracts that were set to blow up the system based on the Greek debt haircuts were NOT allowed to go off and probably never will be.  i personally know hedge fund managers who were killed by this move.  this means wholesale dumping of these "assets" along with the sovereign bonds.  where do they then put the money?  into the most underperforming asset of the last decade...
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November 10, 2011, 04:58:08 PM
 #1088

if i'm right and we're forming a bull flag, then according to Elliott Wave, this would be wave 2 off the bottom with a big wave 3 up to follow which are typically the longest and strongest.


cypher,
on which time scale do you see a bull flag?

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November 10, 2011, 05:08:30 PM
 #1089

tell me if i'm spamming but a few other bullish factors:

1.  we made it out of the most dangerous month of the year w/o a crash; October.
2.  Nov-May strongest buying season of the year, aka, "sell in May and go away" until November.
3.  Santa Claus rally.
4.  if you look closely, the economic indicators have not been too bad at all:
  a. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/trade-deficit-declines-in-september-as.html
  b. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_10.html
  c.  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/mba-mortgage-purchase-application-index_09.html
  d.  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/visible-existing-home-inventory.html
  e.  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/ceridian-ucla-diesel-fuel-index.html
  f.  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/nfib-small-business-optimism-index.html
  g.  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/bls-job-openings-increase-in-september.html
  h.  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/visible-existing-home-inventory.html

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November 10, 2011, 05:11:23 PM
 #1090

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November 10, 2011, 05:42:38 PM
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Keep it coming.  Interesting stuff I don't have time to dig up myself.

While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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cypherdoc
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November 10, 2011, 05:54:03 PM
 #1092

one other BIG thing going UP:  Oil
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November 10, 2011, 06:02:03 PM
 #1093

big dump in UST's just now!  TBT ramp!
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November 10, 2011, 06:04:55 PM
 #1094

i REALLY like this.  where have we seen this before?:

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November 10, 2011, 06:15:04 PM
 #1095

i also like the fact that Cisco is up.  had really good earnings last nite.  could be an indicator of a big decade long change.
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November 10, 2011, 06:43:45 PM
 #1096

i know i'm piling on now but i can't help but mention one other thing.

the rally in the $DXY from 10/27 up to these levels now at 77.58 is also comforting to me giving it plenty of room to fall under the 03/08 lows as i suspect.  up to this point it had been falling too fast and the charts didn't quite line up for me to allow a multi month rally in stocks.

remember these are my views and you get what you pay for altho i guess i'm trying to disprove that theory.
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November 10, 2011, 06:59:03 PM
 #1097

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bonds-sell-following-very-weak-30-year-auction
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November 10, 2011, 09:01:02 PM
 #1098

tell me if i'm spamming but a few other bullish factors:

1.  we made it out of the most dangerous month of the year w/o a crash; October.
2.  Nov-May strongest buying season of the year, aka, "sell in May and go away" until November.
3.  Santa Claus rally.
4.  if you look closely, the economic indicators have not been too bad at all:
  a. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/trade-deficit-declines-in-september-as.html
  b. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_10.html
  c.  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/mba-mortgage-purchase-application-index_09.html
  d.  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/visible-existing-home-inventory.html
  e.  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/ceridian-ucla-diesel-fuel-index.html
  f.  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/nfib-small-business-optimism-index.html
  g.  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/bls-job-openings-increase-in-september.html
  h.  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/visible-existing-home-inventory.html



It is interesting that one can make many arguments for the bullish case and as many strong ones also for the bearish case. I believe not 60%, not 80% , but at least 95% in the bearish case for stocks. And this is not in any way going against you personally, but solely about different p.o.v's. we will see soon what has been the right call.
For me, I am short again the NDX since 2392 with huge leverage. So far so good :-)
But I will liquidate the short position above 2406. Not a lot to lose, but a lot to win if stocks dive. AAPL as leading stock (today down 10.8 $) has made a nice island gap and unless it will be filled, will lead stocks down hard. As you may have seen, I issued a sell on APPL right after the earnings at 405 $.

And... I am long USDCHF which shows a strong impulsive wave UP and this pair is a leading indicator for the stock market and the DXY. net, I disagree 100% with your bias :-))....

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November 10, 2011, 09:12:50 PM
 #1099

tell me if i'm spamming but a few other bullish factors:

1.  we made it out of the most dangerous month of the year w/o a crash; October.
2.  Nov-May strongest buying season of the year, aka, "sell in May and go away" until November.
3.  Santa Claus rally.
4.  if you look closely, the economic indicators have not been too bad at all:
  a. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/trade-deficit-declines-in-september-as.html
  b. http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/weekly-initial-unemployment-claims_10.html
  c.  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/mba-mortgage-purchase-application-index_09.html
  d.  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/visible-existing-home-inventory.html
  e.  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/ceridian-ucla-diesel-fuel-index.html
  f.  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/nfib-small-business-optimism-index.html
  g.  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/bls-job-openings-increase-in-september.html
  h.  http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/11/visible-existing-home-inventory.html



It is interesting that one can make many arguments for the bullish case and as many strong ones also for the bearish case. I believe not 60%, not 80% , but at least 95% in the bearish case for stocks. And this is not in any way going against you personally, but solely about different p.o.v's. we will see soon what has been the right call.
For me, I am short again the NDX since 2392 with huge leverage. So far so good :-)
But I will liquidate the short position above 2406. Not a lot to lose, but a lot to win if stocks dive. AAPL as leading stock (today down 10.8 $) has made a nice island gap and unless it will be filled, will lead stocks down hard. As you may have seen, I issued a sell on APPL right after the earnings at 405 $.

And... I am long USDCHF which shows a strong impulsive wave UP and this pair is a leading indicator for the stock market and the DXY. net, I disagree 100% with your bias :-))....


well this is what makes a market, huh?  LOL, you know how much i admire your work and its funny i feel like a traitor essentially going from the deflationary to an inflationary view. Cheesy  however things have changed since the 10/04 low.

as you know, i understand Prechters deflationary view quite well and i still am a subscriber to his work.  but this worldwide gov't bond selloff along with my cycle work just tells me Prechters Elliott waves won't work just yet. this represents a huge pot of additional fiat that has to be reallocated.

of course i could be wrong.  everything in the news says i'm wrong so it just might be so.  however, my experience in markets tells me there always is some level of cognitive dissonance that just doesn't make sense to the average investor and presents opportunities for the savvy.  i think this is one of those times.

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November 10, 2011, 09:21:08 PM
 #1100

yeah.. this is life.... its ambiguous all the time...

I see your point that news are overall very bearish even in mainstream, but this fits to the third wave behavior.. third waves are "the point of recognition" where finally all is negative AND prices fall (and the contrarian view does not work anymore, expect for short term bounces from oversold conditions)

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