rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[SlipperySlope]

Zapffe why there is bad blood between you and Risto? I never saw him acting unethically.

I also did not before ^^ dat pick. I mean wtf am I looking at there? Perhaps "unethically" isn't the right word BUT WHAT THE ... F? AM I LOOKING AT THERE? context pls

Risto is a successful precious metals dealer - and this is a flamboyant depiction of someone who simply loves silver. Mr. Pietila became a Bitcoin millionaire in the months following the first time I saw this image. Given the strength of then bullish convictions and his obvious resultant success, the majority of his early detractors have moved on, or shut up.

I, for one, welcomed his perspective as a precious metals dealer, his cheerful optimism, his ambitions, and his analysis skills. I cannot think of any other whale who is this transparent. He really does not need this forum, but I think we need him. In particular, his Bitcoin Savings Plan has been a model for my own holdings.

[seleme]

People had shut down a bit, including me who was one of his biggest detractors because he talks less shit and act more as normal guy than utter lunatic he did back in April/May/June 2013 when he was talking nonsense of 300 000$ coins by the end of the year and other shit.

He still has a bit of assholness in him but I could handle the amount he is sending out these days though

[Zapffe]

Add: putting it on national TV seems to imply Risto is still hated by the TPTB or at least some powerful group in Finland? So perhaps that paints the understanding that he is on our side of the battle ahead.

Yes, that's it. It's all a conspiracy of the Finnish elite. It always is..

[spooderman]

I was promised quality ta.

edit: it's ok, I went back a page and found some charts with lines.

[AnonyMint]

Add: putting it on national TV seems to imply Risto is still hated by the TPTB or at least some powerful group in Finland? So perhaps that paints the understanding that he is on our side of the battle ahead.

Yes, that's it. It's all a conspiracy of the Finnish elite. It always is..

Granted it may just be a sign of the times, and again I want nothing to do with the desires of the masses to introspect the anus of every personality. If they didn't have so much spare time on their hands due to $223 trillion debt, perhaps they would be busier doing actual work than standing around by the mineral water dispenser or whacking off in their cubicle (the suppliers of the cybersex to office "workers" in the West are right here in the Philippines where I am ... hey you didn't know I was watching you did you).

How did a man hugging his silver become newsworthy enough to be on national TV?

I am remembering all the crazy shenanigans we did as young men that was more newsworthy than that and we didn't even make it into the local newspaper.

Okay I realize nowadays people want to watch Britney Spears brush her teeth, but I thought you Europeans prided yourself on not emulating/importing Boobus Americana (or maybe that is just the French?).

 

Any way, I am damn glad I never returned to the USA after my car died in the middle of the CA desert in 2006 (because I forgot to add oil absent minded as I am) and when I asked for a ride at 3am to nearest service station at the rest stop, the people were literally freaking out and threatening to call the police. The police had to give me that ride. I don't know what happened to USA, but I am happy to be far away from that psychosis. The drug use is really pervasive now in the USA as I hear from my teenagers. And I hear from a Belgium teenager that the youth in Europe are heavy smokers.  (hey drug rights activists please don't get angry at me for not wanting maryjane to be around my teenagers)

Seems like we can't really say anything these days without pissing on someone's politics. Sigh. Any way back to something productive...

[rpietila]

I have had funnier costumes than that, but the problem is that reporters take photos and upload them to stay forever in the Internet, and the original context (why it is funny/satirical/younameit) is totally lost

Were they ever funnier then this piece of evidence, shown on the Finnish national TV channel:



They can't be more embarrassing like that one. Especially with you looking like you aren't kidding around here, and you are actually exhibiting your wealth in this manner with serious intentions. That picture isn't showing you as a very respectable individual. Right?
But we all knew that you were kidding around with this picture, and were just playing a role of an stereo-typical douchebag, just so you could fool everyone. Actually you are an highly skilled businessman, who is a straight shooter and with an impeccable reputation in both Finland and Estonia, right?  

I commissioned that commercial video where that screenshot is taken from, and paid about € 1,000 for it. The scene was scripted by myself. I was an actor in that part (in total we had about 6 actors).

The audio was "Moni luulee, että hopeaan sijoittaminen on tätä" (transl. "many believe that investing in silver means THIS") [showing the funny picture] - and then going on to show for about 5 minutes that investing in silver is not the thing depicted in the photo of the funny guy, but a quite normal activity that you can do using your laptop.

If you take a screenshot from an Arnold Schwarzenegger movie and use it as a proof of something he is in his personal life, judging his morality, etc. and he is not qualified to hold a public office, AREN'T YOU JUST DAMN STUPID confusing things?  

And this marks the end of the discussion in this thread. I am painfully aware that trolls are sent to attack me to consume my time so every time I answer, it has to be definite, so that we can move on.

Zapffe, you make your own thread now please, and we get back to TA.

EDIT: Oh man, just looking at that picture I start to remember how fun it was to stage it. Notice especially the vessel in the head (seriously, wtf!), the flowers, and the ugly-shaped Chinese porcelain vase in the corner, with depiction of Mao Tse-Tung meeting Chou En-Lai, with the flag of the PROC clearly visible. If you can do that in all seriousness in your country, the blame is on you, savages

[chessnut]

A picture like that has to be a joke. obviously.

Rpietila, Do you think we have hit another bottom?

This event has unfolded in a classic elliot wave. high volume on the third wave, wedge (dry liqiudity) fourth, exhaustion by the fifth (465), and now a sharp reaction.

The bottom must come within a couple days of this if the news is legit right? because the decision necessary to make by all the chinese investors is pretty straight forward.

[creekbore]

Risto,
OK...back to the TA.

You stated a while back regarding the likelihood of breaking 550 (which has been and gone) and I imagine you are still bullish for the next quarter.

But with Chinese funds looking increasingly insecure, where is the new money going to come from?  It seems unlikely to come from a 'new' market like China was a new market last year.  So, if we can no longer count on fresh 'geographic' markets, then it has to come from sectors within established markets.

I know that many here dismiss news as effecting the market but for me BTC is one of the most sentiment driven markets around (similar to metals) -- with so much negative news/sentiment are you still as confident that institutional investment with flow in later this year?

[Pruden]

Why is everyone still treating the China news as unconfirmed? I assumed the second drop was due to its confirmation.

In a shorter timeframe, is obvious inverse head and shoulders obvious to anyone else? The problem are those walls to $530.

[creekbore]

A picture like that has to be a joke. obviously.

Rpietila, Do you think we have hit another bottom?

This event has unfolded in a classic elliot wave. high volume on the third wave, wedge (dry liqiudity) fourth, exhaustion by the fifth (465), and now a sharp reaction.

The bottom must come within a couple days of this if the news is legit right? because the decision necessary to make by all the chinese investors is pretty straight forward.

But the sharp reaction has been on low volume and during US 'sleep' time....when Europe wakes up will be our first indicator.  Personally, I can see us retesting 400, especially given the weekend.

EDIT: And can I also add my familiar and no doubt tiresome refrain: the ever dwindling Bid-sum and the unhealthy bid/ask ratio.

[chessnut]

Why is everyone still treating the China news as unconfirmed? I assumed the second drop was due to its confirmation.

In a shorter timeframe, is obvious inverse head and shoulders obvious to anyone else? The problem are those walls to $530.

well I will never know for sure myself, I dont trust anything but the chart.

The chart tells me that something indeed is confirmed and it is bad news, but that the recent price action has been panic, and the fall has been exhausted. If the news is 'fact' or decisive then a binary outcome would be much swifter and severe.

The head and shoulders is comforting.

[chessnut]

A picture like that has to be a joke. obviously.

Rpietila, Do you think we have hit another bottom?

This event has unfolded in a classic elliot wave. high volume on the third wave, wedge (dry liqiudity) fourth, exhaustion by the fifth (465), and now a sharp reaction.

The bottom must come within a couple days of this if the news is legit right? because the decision necessary to make by all the chinese investors is pretty straight forward.

But the sharp reaction has been on low volume and during US 'sleep' time....when Europe wakes up will be our first indicator.  Personally, I can see us retesting 400, especially given the weekend.

EDIT: And can I also add my familiar and no doubt tiresome refrain: the ever dwindling Bid-sum and the unhealthy bid/ask ratio.

Not sure about that, I thought China was driving the market.

[Asrael999]

Why is everyone still treating the China news as unconfirmed? I assumed the second drop was due to its confirmation.

In a shorter timeframe, is obvious inverse head and shoulders obvious to anyone else? The problem are those walls to $530.

because it is not actually confirmed yet - there is no official comment from the PBOC and the only source remains Caixen (sp?)

That said given the problems in the Chinese Banking and Shadow Banking systems it is hardly surprising that an almost closed system would be looking very hard at mechanisms that are outside of their control and which enable capital flight.

[TERA]

Even if the news is confirmed I suspect that the full drop will not occur until bank accounts or exchanges actually get shut down.

[GigaCoin]

Why is everyone still treating the China news as unconfirmed? I assumed the second drop was due to its confirmation.

In a shorter timeframe, is obvious inverse head and shoulders obvious to anyone else? The problem are those walls to $530.

If it was really confirmed the price would've been at $300 by now. There is still a lot of confusion, coindesk interviewed btcchina and hiobi ceos and both said this is so far just a rumor. I'm kinda surprised we're back at $515 now

I think after what happened last time people are more careful, once there is some form of an official confirmation like a CEO saying its all over now, i expect a sell off, because if indeed true this news is very grave.

[creekbore]

But the sharp reaction has been on low volume and during US 'sleep' time....when Europe wakes up will be our first indicator.  Personally, I can see us retesting 400, especially given the weekend.

EDIT: And can I also add my familiar and no doubt tiresome refrain: the ever dwindling Bid-sum and the unhealthy bid/ask ratio.

Not sure about that, I thought China was driving the market.

That's my point...the drop we are seeing is mainly the Chinese/Asian timezone (its 7pm here in the Eastern tropics)...when Europe wakes up it will respond, then the US.

btw Taking much comfort from that H&S still

[chessnut]

Right Im with you ^^

[rpietila]

I am not gloating about his manor. Only wishing he could have invested that to become $100 millionaire first.

Actually I am very good at portfolio balancing and scenario thinking.

People had shut down a bit, including me who was one of his biggest detractors because he talks less shit and act more as normal guy than utter lunatic he did back in April/May/June 2013 when he was talking nonsense of 300 000$ coins by the end of the year and other shit.

No it was not about the forecast an sich. Just 2-3 months ago there was this Cult of Super-Exponential Trendline, which also forecasted $1 million this year. The members of that one were never reviled personally just because they believed in the fad for a short time.

It is just that some people are a constant target of attacks, I believe the newbies who find their way here after 4 posts and then attack me are just paid, with the old-timers there is ego conflict. But as is evident if an outside observer reads my posts history, I never go ad hominem. I can avoid the temptation because I am not just naturally very interested in people, rather ideas.

If it was really confirmed the price would've been at $300 by now.

I can sell you puts for $300. Going there is about 1:5 in my opinion, but I don't believe that anything that China does can much change the prospects. USA just ruled positively.

I am always surprised that some people want to sell at the bottoms and buy at the tops. Time after time I say: don't be so stupid to think that they exist. Just buy. Still I am always proven wrong, somehow the low-sellers do exist, and I got to buy back my large short from December at 448.

[trainingsengineering]

I had been pointing out this problem over the past weeks and months (remember upthread I pointed out that automating this computation was not realistic):

http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/03/why-bitcoin-can-no-longer-work-as-a-virtual-currency-in-1-paragraph/359648/

If I have to figure out which particular Bitcoin in my wallet I want to spend and what the tax treatment will be, Bitcoin just doesn't work as a commercial medium of exchange.

But that article points out another problem with the fact that Bitcoin is not untaxable as legal tender:

The price at which a particular Bitcoin was acquired (and this is traceable) determines the capital gains on that particular Bitcoin when spent.  If I spend Bitcoin A, which I bought at $10, but is now worth $400, I’ve got a very different tax treatment than if I spend Bitcoin B, which I bought at $390. […] This means Bitcoins are not fungible, and that makes it unworkable as a currency.

The reason this destroys fungibility is that people will need to think about tax timing and implications when spending money, i.e. they have to bind their money to their total tax planning.

The guidance for the IRS was absolutely not good news, imo, as some would have it. Please to those who think it is, elaborate more.
However, it was as expected, though I would say it makes more sense to tax it as an intangible, instead. Even if the masses would start to use bitcoin (which is what you claim is the goal from TPTB?), then the infrastructure needs much development still.  I think we are many awaiting what you are working on, as it is obvious bitcoin in its current form could become somewhat salivating for the top-down controlled powers in place.

[chessnut]

"It added that investors are free to trade in bitcoins at their own risk, but should know they cannot be used as legal tender."

That is hopeful to me. the attitude is not hostile, and I think that means by the by the unclear ways of the PBOC, we may have some positive announcements.