rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[keithers]

I am willing to predict where the price is 2014-5-17 (30 days from now) volume weighted average Bitstamp price:

Price in USD range; probability

4466-100000; 0.1%
2818-4465; 0.4%
1778-2817; 2.0%
1413-1777; 2.0%
1122-1412; 3.0%
1000-1121; 2.5%
891-999; 3.5%
794-890; 5.5%
708-793; 8.0%
631-707; 14.0%
562-630; 18.0%
501-561; 17.0%
447-500; 9.0%
398-446; 6.0%
355-397; 4.0%
316-354; 2.0%
251-315; 2.0%
0-250; 1.0%

I think this is a very good price range estimate...  I would put us in the $562-630 range in 30 days as well.  I find it interesting that you predict prices of 1778-2817 with equal probability as 251-315

[elasticband]

Good spread.

[wachtwoord]

We may see posts like this then:

If I can live of $10k a month indefinitely without working there is no way in hell I'm complaining

[SlipperySlope]

. . . Not many are in real life prepared for $100k per bitcoin this year, even though it is possible. It may ruin many people's life more than bitcoin going to zero.

Ha. Our log trend models predict an average price of $100k per bitcoin in about 18 months. What difference does 12 months make when it comes to ruining people's lives?

100K ruining people's lives?  (now or in 18 months which really is not that much longer)  Is the thinking that it will be like those that win the lottery and are not in the position to handle such wealth so quickly?

http://www.complex.com/pop-culture/2009/07/curse-of-the-lotto-how-the-millions-can-ruin-lives

The gravest danger from sudden wealth, e.g. 1000x your current net worth, is how unprepared one could be with regard to the safety of the household and loved ones. We take for granted the enormous amount of security provided by simple anonymity when living in a developed country with an average amount of cash.

Here in Austin however, we have a world famous billionaire Michael Dell. From a distance I have seen a couple of his estates which are patrolled by private, armed guards. There is no way that Mr. Dell or his family could enjoy the sights and street life like I can. So much of what I enjoy about life would be interrupted if everyone stared at me in public, or my bodyguards, or my armored car.

What of all the beggars and solicitors that would seek my attention?

I need great wealth to fund greater goals and am old enough that the majority of my happy ordinary life is behind me. If I must move away from my less-than-secure but lovely and loving neighborhood to a compound, so be it, and live with guards, so be it. But I know that my dear wife will never be as happy and will blame me for the rest of my life when she fully realizes what I have done by simply holding on to bitcoin.

[bitcoinsrus]

. . . Not many are in real life prepared for $100k per bitcoin this year, even though it is possible. It may ruin many people's life more than bitcoin going to zero.

Ha. Our log trend models predict an average price of $100k per bitcoin in about 18 months. What difference does 12 months make when it comes to ruining people's lives?

100K ruining people's lives?  (now or in 18 months which really is not that much longer)  Is the thinking that it will be like those that win the lottery and are not in the position to handle such wealth so quickly?

http://www.complex.com/pop-culture/2009/07/curse-of-the-lotto-how-the-millions-can-ruin-lives

The gravest danger from sudden wealth, e.g. 1000x your current net worth, is how unprepared one could be with regard to the safety of the household and loved ones. We take for granted the enormous amount of security of simple anonymity when living in a developed country with an average amount of cash.

Here in Austin however, we have a world famous billionaire Michael Dell. From a distance I have seen a couple of his estates which are patrolled by private, armed guards. There is no way that Mr. Dell or his family could enjoy the sights and street life like I can. So much of what I enjoy about life would be interrupted if everyone stared at me in public, or my bodyguards, or my armored car.

What of all the beggars and solicitors that would seek my attention?

I need great wealth to fund greater goals and am old enough that the majority of my happy ordinary life is behind me. If I must move away from my less-than-secure but lovely and loving neighborhood to a compound, so be it, and live with guards, so be it. But I know that my dear wife will never be as happy and will blame me for the rest of my life when she fully realizes what I have done by simply holding on to bitcoin.

Those rich housewives on that tv show sure do seem to have a hard time    Sexing the pool boy and buying whatever they want.

[wachtwoord]

. . . Not many are in real life prepared for $100k per bitcoin this year, even though it is possible. It may ruin many people's life more than bitcoin going to zero.

Ha. Our log trend models predict an average price of $100k per bitcoin in about 18 months. What difference does 12 months make when it comes to ruining people's lives?

100K ruining people's lives?  (now or in 18 months which really is not that much longer)  Is the thinking that it will be like those that win the lottery and are not in the position to handle such wealth so quickly?

http://www.complex.com/pop-culture/2009/07/curse-of-the-lotto-how-the-millions-can-ruin-lives

The gravest danger from sudden wealth, e.g. 1000x your current net worth, is how unprepared one could be with regard to the safety of the household and loved ones. We take for granted the enormous amount of security provided by simple anonymity when living in a developed country with an average amount of cash.

Here in Austin however, we have a world famous billionaire Michael Dell. From a distance I have seen a couple of his estates which are patrolled by private, armed guards. There is no way that Mr. Dell or his family could enjoy the sights and street life like I can. So much of what I enjoy about life would be interrupted if everyone stared at me in public, or my bodyguards, or my armored car.

What of all the beggars and solicitors that would seek my attention?

I need great wealth to fund greater goals and am old enough that the majority of my happy ordinary life is behind me. If I must move away from my less-than-secure but lovely and loving neighborhood to a compound, so be it, and live with guards, so be it. But I know that my dear wife will never be as happy and will blame me for the rest of my life when she fully realizes what I have done by simply holding on to bitcoin.

Then stay anonymous? No-one is forcing you to stand on a roof top and shout your net worth is $1B or something.

[SlipperySlope]

Those rich housewives on that tv show sure do seem to have a hard time    Sexing the pool boy and buying whatever they want.

Ah yes, but my wife and I share a frugal lifestyle that belies what we can already afford. A lifetime of virtuous, unrelenting frugality does not prepare one for the sort of upheaval I foresee coming for me.

Supposing that we are three years away from the half way point of adoption, then there will be over ten thousand new bitcoin millionaires and tens of bitcoin billionaires - rpietila notably among them. Part of the mind-bending part of getting bitcoin, as in understanding it, is realizing how many folks around the world will have sudden wealth, and ten times more each year until . . .

[BitChick]

. . . Not many are in real life prepared for $100k per bitcoin this year, even though it is possible. It may ruin many people's life more than bitcoin going to zero.

Ha. Our log trend models predict an average price of $100k per bitcoin in about 18 months. What difference does 12 months make when it comes to ruining people's lives?

100K ruining people's lives?  (now or in 18 months which really is not that much longer)  Is the thinking that it will be like those that win the lottery and are not in the position to handle such wealth so quickly?

http://www.complex.com/pop-culture/2009/07/curse-of-the-lotto-how-the-millions-can-ruin-lives

The gravest danger from sudden wealth, e.g. 1000x your current net worth, is how unprepared one could be with regard to the safety of the household and loved ones. We take for granted the enormous amount of security provided by simple anonymity when living in a developed country with an average amount of cash.

Here in Austin however, we have a world famous billionaire Michael Dell. From a distance I have seen a couple of his estates which are patrolled by private, armed guards. There is no way that Mr. Dell or his family could enjoy the sights and street life like I can. So much of what I enjoy about life would be interrupted if everyone stared at me in public, or my bodyguards, or my armored car.

What of all the beggars and solicitors that would seek my attention?

I need great wealth to fund greater goals and am old enough that the majority of my happy ordinary life is behind me. If I must move away from my less-than-secure but lovely and loving neighborhood to a compound, so be it, and live with guards, so be it. But I know that my dear wife will never be as happy and will blame me for the rest of my life when she fully realizes what I have done by simply holding on to bitcoin.

Then stay anonymous? No-one is forcing you to stand on a roof top and shout your net worth is $1B or something.

This is why we have told very few people about our investment, and if we have we do not tell them how many Bitcoins we have.  Let's say it does get to 100K per coin or more, we can give a sob story of how we sold "quite a few" before it got to that point so no one really has to know what we have.

I think the wise thing to do would be to not change our lifestyle that much.  As tempting as it will be to buy a new house, new cars and trips to space, perhaps it is best to just pretend we don't have much money.

My big goals are to fund a mission trip I am taking to India in the fall and pay for some humanitarian type things while I am there (water wells, medical camps, Aids outreach, funds for an orphanage).  If the price spikes this Summer I should be a in a great position to do so much more.  

Plus, when I was younger, I was joking that my "dream job" someday would be to become a philanthropist!  Maybe this will be a way to fulfill that dream!    (I also said that the only way I would ever get a doctorate degree is if I could get an "honorary" one.  Perhaps it goes along with philanthropy? LOL  We will see. . . )

[SlipperySlope]

Then stay anonymous? No-one is forcing you to stand on a roof top and shout your net worth is $1B or something.

At a minimum, being anonymous is good, e.g. hiding in plain sight. I am years away from the problem anyway.

[Pruden]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Millionaire_Next_Door

Millionaires are least probable to be found in expensive neighbourhoods. That's where middle-class debt-slaves go.

[SlipperySlope]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Millionaire_Next_Door

Millionaires are least probable to be found in expensive neighbourhoods. That's where middle-class debt-slaves go.

Yeah, that book fits me and my wife like a stereotype except that we are better educated than most no-competition small business owners that the book discusses. I laughed out loud when I read the part that those sorts of people have very frugal wives - coupon clippers, buys used cars, reads every receipt, argues every bad bill, questions the husband's every purchase, etc.

[BitChick]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Millionaire_Next_Door

Millionaires are least probable to be found in expensive neighbourhoods. That's where middle-class debt-slaves go.

Yeah, that book fits me and my wife like a stereotype except that we are better educated than most no-competition small business owners that the book discusses. I laughed out loud when I read the part that those sorts of people have very frugal wives - coupon clippers, reads every receipt, argues every bad bill, questions my every purchase, etc.

So a man's wealth is directly proportional to their wife's frugality? 

[SlipperySlope]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Millionaire_Next_Door

Millionaires are least probable to be found in expensive neighbourhoods. That's where middle-class debt-slaves go.

Yeah, that book fits me and my wife like a stereotype except that we are better educated than most no-competition small business owners that the book discusses. I laughed out loud when I read the part that those sorts of people have very frugal wives - coupon clippers, reads every receipt, argues every bad bill, questions my every purchase, etc.

So a man's wealth is directly proportional to their wife's frugality?  

Yeah, when alone I allow myself to think that it is my financial genius - not! But the reality is that frugality, compound interest, e.g. stocks, bonds, income-producing real estate, and the simple passage of time are sufficient. That is the message of the mentioned book.

Bitcoin will disrupt my lifestyle to the extent that it disrupts the legacy financial infrastructure.

[SlipperySlope]

Revisiting the trendline that I last posted, we see that the recent news about Chinese exchanges has conveniently stopped the rally short term at about the 550 resistance point. Because I believe that we are now between the bottom of the November 2013 bubble and the beginning of the next bubble, I am biased to expect that prices will move sideways through the resistance before resuming the rally. 

[SlipperySlope]

And here is the confirming chart of the adjusted number of bitcoin transactions. I say "confirming" because the price reversed from the recent bottom shortly before the transaction quantity did the same.

[BitChick]

Revisiting the trendline that I last posted, we see that the recent news about Chinese exchanges has conveniently stopped the rally short term at about the 550 resistance point. Because I believe that we are now between the bottom of the November 2013 bubble and the beginning of the next bubble, I am biased to expect that prices will move sideways through the resistance before resuming the rally. 

So the question is, how long will we have to go sideways?

[Cassius]

My big goals are to fund a mission trip I am taking to India in the fall and pay for some humanitarian type things while I am there (water wells, medical camps, Aids outreach, funds for an orphanage).  If the price spikes this Summer I should be a in a great position to do so much more.  

Plus, when I was younger, I was joking that my "dream job" someday would be to become a philanthropist!  Maybe this will be a way to fulfill that dream!    (I also said that the only way I would ever get a doctorate degree is if I could get an "honorary" one.  Perhaps it goes along with philanthropy? LOL  We will see. . . )

Nice
I work for a Christian charity. Tried to bring up bitcoin with my boss a couple of times as something that is going to be a really big deal and we need to engage with. He wasn't interested, just didn't seem to get it. So I put one aside and in a year or two years I'll donate it to the charity with a big "I told you so."
It's kind of passive aggressive, but what's he going to do...?

[bitcoinsrus]

My big goals are to fund a mission trip I am taking to India in the fall and pay for some humanitarian type things while I am there (water wells, medical camps, Aids outreach, funds for an orphanage).  If the price spikes this Summer I should be a in a great position to do so much more.  

Plus, when I was younger, I was joking that my "dream job" someday would be to become a philanthropist!  Maybe this will be a way to fulfill that dream!    (I also said that the only way I would ever get a doctorate degree is if I could get an "honorary" one.  Perhaps it goes along with philanthropy? LOL  We will see. . . )

Nice
I work for a Christian charity. Tried to bring up bitcoin with my boss a couple of times as something that is going to be a really big deal and we need to engage with. He wasn't interested, just didn't seem to get it. So I put one aside and in a year or two years I'll donate it to the charity with a big "I told you so."
It's kind of passive aggressive, but what's he going to do...?

He is going to be sad when you quit after the rally
Don't worry i feel the same when i tell my folks.  They don't get it, they don't listen.  

[SlipperySlope]

I work for a Christian charity. Tried to bring up bitcoin with my boss a couple of times as something that is going to be a really big deal and we need to engage with. He wasn't interested, just didn't seem to get it. So I put one aside and in a year or two years I'll donate it to the charity with a big "I told you so."
It's kind of passive aggressive, but what's he going to do...?

How about donating a 0.1 BTC each year instead? You might be surprised at the result and the good it would do.

[BitChick]

My big goals are to fund a mission trip I am taking to India in the fall and pay for some humanitarian type things while I am there (water wells, medical camps, Aids outreach, funds for an orphanage).  If the price spikes this Summer I should be a in a great position to do so much more.  

Plus, when I was younger, I was joking that my "dream job" someday would be to become a philanthropist!  Maybe this will be a way to fulfill that dream!    (I also said that the only way I would ever get a doctorate degree is if I could get an "honorary" one.  Perhaps it goes along with philanthropy? LOL  We will see. . . )

Nice
I work for a Christian charity. Tried to bring up bitcoin with my boss a couple of times as something that is going to be a really big deal and we need to engage with. He wasn't interested, just didn't seem to get it. So I put one aside and in a year or two years I'll donate it to the charity with a big "I told you so."
It's kind of passive aggressive, but what's he going to do...?

I am sure he won't complain if you say "I told you so" with a nice donation.  It is really difficult getting non-profits on board, surprisingly!  I am going to India with a group of women and we are using a non-profit organization called Hill of Hope that will be serving as the site where all of the funds are collected before we then go to work with the group Harvest India.  I contacted Hill of Hope about taking Bitcoin directly and they did not seem interested.  I guess I can always just cash out coins myself and pay them directly but it would have been great to get them involved, not just for this one trip but for some of the other great charitable works they are helping finance.