rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[ErisDiscordia]

It is a bad thing if people use the emotion of short term action to adjust their long term projections. The theory behind all of these long term projections are that they are calculated in such a way that they occur regardless of the current short term action.

Isn't that a good thing for you as a day trader, though? If people wouldn't react emotionally while participating in markets, you probably wouldn't have made as much money as you did.

"Don't tap the glass" say the poker players. You will scare away the fish

[1714761406]

1714761406

[1714761406]

1714761406

[TERA]

It is a bad thing if people use the emotion of short term action to adjust their long term projections. The theory behind all of these long term projections are that they are calculated in such a way that they occur regardless of the current short term action.

Isn't that a good thing for you as a day trader, though? If people wouldn't react emotionally while participating in markets, you probably wouldn't have made as much money as you did.

"Don't tap the glass" say the poker players. You will scare away the fish

My posting is only directed at the participants of this thread who have been posting models of 'the trendline' going to $1,000,000 such as rpetelia. It is not about the market as a whole.

[BitchicksHusband]

It is a bad thing if people use the emotion of short term action to adjust their long term projections. The theory behind all of these long term projections are that they are calculated in such a way that they occur regardless of the current short term action.

Isn't that a good thing for you as a day trader, though? If people wouldn't react emotionally while participating in markets, you probably wouldn't have made as much money as you did.

"Don't tap the glass" say the poker players. You will scare away the fish

My posting is only directed at the participants of this thread who have been posting models of 'the trendline' going to $1,000,000 such as rpetelia. It is not about the market as a whole.

Slippery's adoption curve seems a little high to me.  I see us starting to level off in the mid-5 to low-6 digits ($30,000-$100,000), and this is still after several more bubbles over the next couple years.

Could we get to $1 million per coin?  Yeah, but I think that will take 25-50 years.

[pinksheep]

So you think we could see $30,000 to $100,000 over the next couple of years?

[wachtwoord]

It is a bad thing if people use the emotion of short term action to adjust their long term projections. The theory behind all of these long term projections are that they are calculated in such a way that they occur regardless of the current short term action.

Isn't that a good thing for you as a day trader, though? If people wouldn't react emotionally while participating in markets, you probably wouldn't have made as much money as you did.

"Don't tap the glass" say the poker players. You will scare away the fish

My posting is only directed at the participants of this thread who have been posting models of 'the trendline' going to $1,000,000 such as rpetelia. It is not about the market as a whole.

Slippery's adoption curve seems a little high to me.  I see us starting to level off in the mid-5 to low-6 digits ($30,000-$100,000), and this is still after several more bubbles over the next couple years.

Could we get to $1 million per coin?  Yeah, but I think that will take 25-50 years.

But the end point of this curve doesn't really matter. $30k or $300M gives the same curve on the spot we are right now. It doesn't go faster than exponentially!

[TERA]

I believe it is ridiculous to think that in 3 years bitcoin will be
-As big in market cap as the U.S. dollar.
-Fully intergrated with all merchants and all consumers
-Full integrated into wall street
-The currency of choice in the mainstream with all consumers clearly choosing bitcoin over fiat
-All employees salaries are paid in btc, all bills are paid in btc, you pay your rent and taxes in btc, etc.

This is the type of thing that the $1,000,000 mark would imply, and I think it would take a lot longer than 3 years. I think it would take it 10 years at least.

That would mean that the 'trendline' needs some serious adjustment - perhaps it is a different shape altogether than a simple exponential increase.

[Ultros]

I believe it is ridiculous to think that in 3 years bitcoin will be
-As big in market cap as the U.S. dollar.
-Fully intergrated with all merchants and all consumers
-Full integrated into wall street
-The currency of choice in the mainstream with all consumers clearly choosing bitcoin over fiat
-All employees salaries are paid in btc, all bills are paid in btc, you pay your rent and taxes in btc, etc.

This is the type of thing that the $1,000,000 mark would imply, and I think it would take a lot longer than 3 years. I think it would take it 10 years at least.

That would mean that the 'trendline' needs some serious adjustment - perhaps it is a different shape altogether than a simple exponential increase.

And people call you a bear. 

[ErisDiscordia]

So you think we could see $30,000 to $100,000 over the next couple of years?

The way I see it this is an inevitable conclusion if we assume any sort of meaningful success for Bitcoin. Where success is defined as replacing significant parts of current markets (payments, remittance, gold, fiat currency) and/or creating new ones (microtransactions, gambling, crowdfunding, smart contracts, ). The capitalization of the Bitcoin ecosystem and thus inevitably the price of one Bitcoin will have to be in that sort of ballpark in order for the occurrence of such scenarios to be possible.

The question of whether we reach such prices then becomes a question if Bitcoin can achieve these things and that of course is impossible to foretell - but everyone can do their own research and form their own opinion about that and act accordingly.

[wachtwoord]

I believe it is ridiculous to think that in 3 years bitcoin will be
-As big in market cap as the U.S. dollar.
-Fully intergrated with all merchants and all consumers
-Full integrated into wall street
-The currency of choice in the mainstream with all consumers clearly choosing bitcoin over fiat
-All employees salaries are paid in btc, all bills are paid in btc, you pay your rent and taxes in btc, etc.

This is the type of thing that the $1,000,000 mark would imply, and I think it would take a lot longer than 3 years. I think it would take it 10 years at least.

That would mean that the 'trendline' needs some serious adjustment - perhaps it is a different shape altogether than a simple exponential increase.

And people call you a bear. 

last time I did he explained to me he wasn't

[pinksheep]

I believe it is ridiculous to think that in 3 years bitcoin will be
-As big in market cap as the U.S. dollar.
-Fully intergrated with all merchants and all consumers
-Full integrated into wall street
-The currency of choice in the mainstream with all consumers clearly choosing bitcoin over fiat
-All employees salaries are paid in btc, all bills are paid in btc, you pay your rent and taxes in btc, etc.

This is the type of thing that the $1,000,000 mark would imply, and I think it would take a lot longer than 3 years. I think it would take it 10 years at least.

That would mean that the 'trendline' needs some serious adjustment - perhaps it is a different shape altogether than a simple exponential increase.

I don't think BTC has to actually have achieved all that you list above. Just the possiblity that it might will propel the price massively upwards. That said I don't think it will take it anywhere near $1m within 3 years.

[SlipperySlope]

I believe it is ridiculous to think that in 3 years bitcoin will be
-As big in market cap as the U.S. dollar.
-Fully intergrated with all merchants and all consumers
-Full integrated into wall street
-The currency of choice in the mainstream with all consumers clearly choosing bitcoin over fiat
-All employees salaries are paid in btc, all bills are paid in btc, you pay your rent and taxes in btc, etc.

This is the type of thing that the $1,000,000 mark would imply, and I think it would take a lot longer than 3 years. I think it would take it 10 years at least.

That would mean that the 'trendline' needs some serious adjustment - perhaps it is a different shape altogether than a simple exponential increase.

I don't think BTC has to actually have achieved all that you list above. Just the possiblity that it might will propel the price massively upwards. That said I don't think it will take it anywhere near $1m within 3 years.

According to Peter_R's Metcalf Law model, the bitcoin price is proportional to the square of the number of transactions. An increase of 3.2x in bitcoin transaction quantity supports a 10x increase in bitcoin price. Currently, transaction volume is about 60,000 daily. To support prices 1000x greater than today we need transaction growth 31.6x greater. That works out to 1.9 million transactions per day. Is that doable in three years?

[Torque]

^^^
SS, what does this transaction volume extrapolate out to on the above chart over the next 3 years?  Is this a linear growth rate in transaction volume, or exponential?

[TERA]

You could possibly attribute this entire chart to the advancement of tumblers.

[SlipperySlope]

^^^
SS, what does this transaction volume extrapolate out to on the chart over the next 3 years?  Is this a linear growth rate transaction volume, or exponential?

The number of transactions has fallen off in the last couple of months, but over the past two years transactions have grown exponentially at the rate of 3.2x annually. Some think that off-blockchain transactions are responsible for the recent fall-off. Off-blockchain transactions would be those performed between accounts at Coinbase for example.

[SlipperySlope]

You could possibly attribute this entire chart to the advancement of tumblers.

And the growth could also be attributed to the payment of mining rewards to hashers.

I perform a couple of transactions each day. One of those is a daily purchase of fractional bitcoin from my local ATM, and the second is a small bitcoin payment from someone who leases one of my three GPU mining rigs to mine altcoins. I am postponing Bitcoin spending during what I believe is the run up to the next, widely expected, bubble.

The Bitcoin Pulse web site tracks numerous fundamental Bitcoin adoption statistics.

[Torque]

You could possibly attribute this entire chart to the advancement of tumblers.

And the growth could also be attributed to the payment of mining rewards to hashers.

I perform a couple of transactions each day. One of those is a daily purchase of fractional bitcoin from my local ATM, and the second is a small bitcoin payment from someone who leases one of my three GPU mining rigs to mine altcoins. I am postponing Bitcoin spending during what I believe is the run up to the next, widely expected, bubble.

The Bitcoin Pulse web site tracks numerous fundamental Bitcoin adoption statistics.

I would assume that as bitcoin true e-commerce (i.e., more places for users to actually spend bitcoin, financial institutions, etc.) takes off, and provided that Coinbase and BitPay don't dominate the merchant market and execute every transaction off-blockchain, it's possible that yearly transaction growth of 3.2X could grow to something higher in the future?

[cbutters]

Assuming bitcoin does take over a lot of traditional uses of money; People who think it will take 25-30 years for bitcoin to take hold are absolutely mental in my opinion.

Do you people not remember how quickly the the internet transformed purchasing and absolutely destroyed most brick and mortar outfits within 3-5 years?

How quickly did netflix put all video stores out of business? I fondly remember going to the video store to rent movies... it was only 2-3 years ago!

Now Look how far we have come in only 8 months... Last year we didn't even know if bitcoin was legal!, now the US is creating regulation and large companies seem to be embracing it. Dish Network and big gold retailers legitimizing bitcoin, Last year, the only way to get bitcoins was through mining or localbitcoins.... (or shady paypal / wire transfers out of the country) Now we can buy on coinbase / circle / etc... gyft came online. Someone can now easily live just on bitcoin alone. This is 8 months of incredible progress!

I'm not saying bitcoin necessarily WILL take over all our financial systems, but the internet payments sector / wealth accumulation / speculation vehicle portions of bitcoin if they DO happen will basically happen incredibly quickly...  Despite being complex... bitcoin is actually much simpler to use and implement than current banking and payment structures. Once we reach a certain point with bitcoin.... mass adoption will be incredible and very quick, think smartphone adoption.... from 2007 with the first iphone / android phones to 2014 where everyone has a smartphone / iphone. Also cell phone adoption... When I entered high school in 1999, 1% of kids maybe had a cell phone if any.. by the time my little sister graduated in 2005, every kid had a cell phone. I think that will be the speed at which this thing happens. 7 year boom.

25-30 years might be the range for TOTAL adoption.... but 80-90% of bitcoins major growth periods for bitcoin and bitcoin type technologies will happen within a decade, not a quarter of a century.

[BombaUcigasa]

According to Peter_R's Metcalf Law model, the bitcoin price is proportional to the square of the number of transactions. An increase of 3.2x in bitcoin transaction quantity supports a 10x increase in bitcoin price. Currently, transaction volume is about 60,000 daily. To support prices 1000x greater than today we need transaction growth 31.6x greater. That works out to 1.9 million transactions per day. Is that doable in three years?

You mean like 22 transactions per second, or 13200 transactions per block, with about 6.6Mb each?

Not possible by this metric alone, so maybe on-chain Bitcoin will not reach 1M USD in the next 3 years?

Also current price growth suggests a price of 3.67M USD in exactly 3 years, something has to change for this to be possible.

[blatchcorn]

According to Peter_R's Metcalf Law model, the bitcoin price is proportional to the square of the number of transactions. An increase of 3.2x in bitcoin transaction quantity supports a 10x increase in bitcoin price. Currently, transaction volume is about 60,000 daily. To support prices 1000x greater than today we need transaction growth 31.6x greater. That works out to 1.9 million transactions per day. Is that doable in three years?

You mean like 22 transactions per second, or 13200 transactions per block, with about 6.6Mb each?

Not possible by this metric alone, so maybe on-chain Bitcoin will not reach 1M USD in the next 3 years?

Also current price growth suggests a price of 3.67M USD in exactly 3 years, something has to change for this to be possible.

Can you provide a source or chart for this please?

[romneymoney]

Assuming bitcoin does take over a lot of traditional uses of money; People who think it will take 25-30 years for bitcoin to take hold are absolutely mental in my opinion.

Do you people not remember how quickly the the internet transformed purchasing and absolutely destroyed most brick and mortar outfits within 3-5 years?

How quickly did netflix put all video stores out of business? I fondly remember going to the video store to rent movies... it was only 2-3 years ago!

Now Look how far we have come in only 8 months... Last year we didn't even know if bitcoin was legal!, now the US is creating regulation and large companies seem to be embracing it. Dish Network and big gold retailers legitimizing bitcoin, Last year, the only way to get bitcoins was through mining or localbitcoins.... (or shady paypal / wire transfers out of the country) Now we can buy on coinbase / circle / etc... gyft came online. Someone can now easily live just on bitcoin alone. This is 8 months of incredible progress!

I'm not saying bitcoin necessarily WILL take over all our financial systems, but the internet payments sector / wealth accumulation / speculation vehicle portions of bitcoin if they DO happen will basically happen incredibly quickly...  Despite being complex... bitcoin is actually much simpler to use and implement than current banking and payment structures. Once we reach a certain point with bitcoin.... mass adoption will be incredible and very quick, think smartphone adoption.... from 2007 with the first iphone / android phones to 2014 where everyone has a smartphone / iphone. Also cell phone adoption... When I entered high school in 1999, 1% of kids maybe had a cell phone if any.. by the time my little sister graduated in 2005, every kid had a cell phone. I think that will be the speed at which this thing happens. 7 year boom.

25-30 years might be the range for TOTAL adoption.... but 80-90% of bitcoins major growth periods for bitcoin and bitcoin type technologies will happen within a decade, not a quarter of a century.

I think you make good points, but maybe you are getting ahead of yourself wrt retail