rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[SlipperySlope]

[Thinking that the bubbles repeat the same pattern.. if SlipperySlope would post his chart of the relative valuation - at least last time they did.

The rightmost data point has a value of -0.373 .

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[rpietila]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=497289.0

Thanks, I read it. Good work. But that is the non-malicious non-CIA explanation, and therefore likely incorrect

I wanna hear about this malicious CIA explanation. Please tell us!

CIA is tasked to acquire a great number of bitcoins without regard to method. They see that the by far the largest exchange is run by a single man show. They use their powers to extract the bitcoins from this single man. Once they have the coins (and the customer data and whatnot) this single man is given a friendly warning of not to talk anything about who the thief was. The prison sentence is likely a short one, and probably the single man has some coins tucked in a brainwallet anyway. It is only a shame that he can never reveal who actually stole the coins.

[zimmah]

I think it might be a good idea to start selling small amounts as soon as we cross above the trend line.
If you have faith that this bubble will hit the same max with respect to the exponential trend as the last two bubbles did, then you can wait until Bitcoin is heavily overvalued to sell.  But the idea that we are going to have a carbon copy of the last two bubbles strikes me as a little fishy.  It's lax thinking.

I think that the worst time to sell is actually after just crossing the previous ATH. Historically rapid appreciation has always resulted. If you want to minimize the risk, just sell when it is the most overextended Otherwise you increase the risk that you are holding depreciating fiat and squander your bitcoins. My minimum sell price is $3. I can sell you CALL options with that or anything above as the strike price

Thinking that the bubbles repeat the same pattern.. if SlipperySlope would post his chart of the relative valuation - at least last time they did.

We could have a 2011 style bubble this summer.
This is bitcoin.

This is also possible. Therefore only sell 20-30% at your preferred sell point so that you can fire another if it goes up another 10x. Or use the SSS method to rule out human judgement. If you do, I suggest you set the first sell point in $2-$3 range.

I take it you mean $3 per mBTC; sorry I have to get used to thinking in terms of mBTC.  

i have the same problem

maybe $3 pek k Satoshi is better

You mean $3 per kBit

You mean mbit

[darlidada]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=497289.0

Thanks, I read it. Good work. But that is the non-malicious non-CIA explanation, and therefore likely incorrect

I wanna hear about this malicious CIA explanation. Please tell us!

CIA is tasked to acquire a great number of bitcoins without regard to method. They see that the by far the largest exchange is run by a single man show. They use their powers to extract the bitcoins from this single man. Once they have the coins (and the customer data and whatnot) this single man is given a friendly warning of not to talk anything about who the thief was. The prison sentence is likely a short one, and probably the single man has some coins tucked in a brainwallet anyway. It is only a shame that he can never reveal who actually stole the coins.

I love these kind of stories, also that would explain the 9gag link. But then, why would the FBI dump the SR coins ? or did they ? Also, that means that the next target is BTC-E as their volume is high and their allegiance towards US law is low. It would be so easy to spin that in their favour even among the pro bitcoiners since its where all the drug money is laundered. I think there will be a massive crash when BTCE is raided. Maybe its gonna be in 2014 during the coming bubble. We need to be ready.

[sgbett]

Risto, have you read the willy report? you can find it here: http://willyreport.wordpress.com/

What does it mean for the price of bitcoin and your investment strategy?

Yes I read it.

The main point is that when people send bitcoins or fiat to gox to trade with them, it results in:

people             gox
bitcoins, fiat ->
                  -> bitcoins, fiat.

gox then issues goxcoins in the same quantity, also goxbux.

When Willy/gox buys the goxcoins for uncovered fiat (acting as a CB), it raises the price of goxcoins, and also of bitcoins in other exchanges. But there is no effect on the real bitcoins or real fiat (which are stored in gox) until the customers withdraw.

So during the runup, when gox was still by and large operational, they pumped up the price of BTC and ran into fiat debt, covered only by their customers' fiat deposits. Then they did not pay out the fiat to stay afloat. The higher price in gox induced people to try arbitrage, to deposit coins there, which Willy bought.

At the apex of the bubble, gox had issued a lot of goxbux fraudulently and ran a ponzi with them. They were correspondingly long in goxbtc.
What happened to the real bank balances of gox (in the tune of $100 million) and the real BTC hold (1MBTC?) is still unknown. Both were stolen in some point. This is where the theft occurred - what was played in gox' system goes under other crimes.

Then in the end all the withdrawals were halted and Willy put on reverse, to dump all the goxcoins bought. I do not know if this made a small or huge loss. Also I don't know the purpose of it, because all(?) withdrawals were canceled, and there was no change happening in the actual liquidity position, except the very last deposits made by arbitrageurs of goxcoins in btc/gxc-exchanges.

What the end result seems to me, is that gox pump did raise the bitcoin price. Also gox did act fraudulently for a very long time, and without proof to the contrary, also stole its customer reserves. Who is now holding the reserves, is an important question. Either the trading was so abysmal that they were lost as trading losses (perhaps to the insiders), or Mark holds them and is willing to risk prison because afterwards he will be so rich (yes, such people do exist that can live on after causing suicides of family fathers with their actions), or the 3-letter agencies hold them and Mark has for a short or longer time been a tool, either as a result of profession, bribery, or coercion.

For now, it is a small stain in Bitcoin's reputation that another few % of them are in criminal hands. But the main effect on price has been seen long ago, including the price dips in February-April. All those who lost in gox, need to get back into the game (if they want to stay), and judging from the price action in the last months, they have not done it yet en masse.

I am grateful to the author of the blog for explanation, but I don't think there is any relevance to where Bitcoin and USDBTC are going from now on.

Also what can't be ignored is the fact that amongst all the alleged chicanery there were real people being and selling at those prices. This shows that the marketplace does have an appetite for coins over $1000. So if the price goes their again, people will likely be more open to the idea (regardless of *why* it was over $1000 last time).

Also the idea that bitcoin "just does this" (by that I mean has hug run ups with blowoffs) seems to be more and more cemented in the minds of people. The gox peak just adds fuel to the idea.

[wachtwoord]

Then in the end all the withdrawals were halted and Willy put on reverse, to dump all the goxcoins bought. I do not know if this made a small or huge loss. Also I don't know the purpose of it, because all(?) withdrawals were canceled, and there was no change happening in the actual liquidity position, except the very last deposits made by arbitrageurs of goxcoins in btc/gxc-exchanges.

Gox total fiat was lower than the outstanding amount of the customers. The bought it all with goxBTC so it doesn't look like a ponzi. They tried to explain the insufficient BTC away by referring to the "problem" with the Bitcoin protocol.

[mladen00]

maybe $3 pek k Satoshi is better

You mean $3 per kBit

$3 per ksat is obviously better  

300 ksat or 0,3M sat..... mB is better

[dreamspark]

Then in the end all the withdrawals were halted and Willy put on reverse, to dump all the goxcoins bought. I do not know if this made a small or huge loss. Also I don't know the purpose of it, because all(?) withdrawals were canceled, and there was no change happening in the actual liquidity position, except the very last deposits made by arbitrageurs of goxcoins in btc/gxc-exchanges.

Gox total fiat was lower than the outstanding amount of the customers. The bought it all with goxBTC so it doesn't look like a ponzi. They tried to explain the insufficient BTC away by referring to the "problem" with the Bitcoin protocol.

Exactly, it seems to me that if this is true the bot was ran in reverse as the game was up and trying to be whole on the fiat and blaming the protocol on the lost BTC is far more believable and probably better from a legal perspective as well. I follow the theory that the coins were stolen a long time ago and all of this was an attempt to make it up but with approx 1,000,000 bitcoins needing making up to be solvent it was always going to be an uphill struggle with the genuine increased adoption as well. Its just a 26 yo man making a billion $ mistake and trying to make it right.

[wachtwoord]

Then in the end all the withdrawals were halted and Willy put on reverse, to dump all the goxcoins bought. I do not know if this made a small or huge loss. Also I don't know the purpose of it, because all(?) withdrawals were canceled, and there was no change happening in the actual liquidity position, except the very last deposits made by arbitrageurs of goxcoins in btc/gxc-exchanges.

Gox total fiat was lower than the outstanding amount of the customers. The bought it all with goxBTC so it doesn't look like a ponzi. They tried to explain the insufficient BTC away by referring to the "problem" with the Bitcoin protocol.

Exactly, it seems to me that if this is true the bot was ran in reverse as the game was up and trying to be whole on the fiat and blaming the protocol on the lost BTC is far more believable and probably better from a legal perspective as well. I follow the theory that the coins were stolen a long time ago and all of this was an attempt to make it up but with approx 1,000,000 bitcoins needing making up to be solvent it was always going to be an uphill struggle with the genuine increased adoption as well. Its just a 26 yo man making a billion $ mistake and trying to make it right.

And instead, making it worse.

[JHammer]

Hi rpietila

Will you be doing a TA soon?  Dont think I have seen one since like page 174?

Or do you not do them during and upturn?


   Thanks!

[bitcoinsrus]

Hi rpietila

Will you be doing a TA soon?  Dont think I have seen one since like page 174?

Or do you not do them during and upturn?


   Thanks!

Theres your TA right there

[kehtolo]

A question for SlipperySlope - I was just wondering where the graph a few posts above came from, and how i would generate my own.
I see this is an important indicator going forward.. and a useful tool during periods of exponential growth.. i.e to help determine selling/exit point.

[wachtwoord]

A question for SlipperySlope - I was just wondering where the graph a few posts above came from, and how i would generate my own.
I see this is an important indicator going forward.. and a useful tool during periods of exponential growth.. i.e to help determine selling/exit point.

Any of these? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=7

[kehtolo]

A question for SlipperySlope - I was just wondering where the graph a few posts above came from, and how i would generate my own.
I see this is an important indicator going forward.. and a useful tool during periods of exponential growth.. i.e to help determine selling/exit point.

Any of these? https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0ArD8rjI3DD1WdFIzNDFMeEhVSzhwcEVXZDVzdVpGU2c#gid=7

Ah.. that's the one! Happy days! thanks..

[BitcoinAlchemist]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=497289.0

Thanks, I read it. Good work. But that is the non-malicious non-CIA explanation, and therefore likely incorrect

I wanna hear about this malicious CIA explanation. Please tell us!

CIA is tasked to acquire a great number of bitcoins without regard to method. They see that the by far the largest exchange is run by a single man show. They use their powers to extract the bitcoins from this single man. Once they have the coins (and the customer data and whatnot) this single man is given a friendly warning of not to talk anything about who the thief was. The prison sentence is likely a short one, and probably the single man has some coins tucked in a brainwallet anyway. It is only a shame that he can never reveal who actually stole the coins.

Couldn't all of the global Intel agencies get in on the act? Why would it stop at the CIA? Anonymous currency is perfect for any intelligence agency and if you're a criminal who can you tell if you're hacked/robbed?

[Biodom]

I think it might be a good idea to start selling small amounts as soon as we cross above the trend line.
If you have faith that this bubble will hit the same max with respect to the exponential trend as the last two bubbles did, then you can wait until Bitcoin is heavily overvalued to sell.  But the idea that we are going to have a carbon copy of the last two bubbles strikes me as a little fishy.  It's lax thinking.

I think that the worst time to sell is actually after just crossing the previous ATH. Historically rapid appreciation has always resulted. If you want to minimize the risk, just sell when it is the most overextended Otherwise you increase the risk that you are holding depreciating fiat and squander your bitcoins. My minimum sell price is $3. I can sell you CALL options with that or anything above as the strike price

Thinking that the bubbles repeat the same pattern.. if SlipperySlope would post his chart of the relative valuation - at least last time they did.

We could have a 2011 style bubble this summer.
This is bitcoin.

This is also possible. Therefore only sell 20-30% at your preferred sell point so that you can fire another if it goes up another 10x. Or use the SSS method to rule out human judgement. If you do, I suggest you set the first sell point in $2-$3 range.

I take it you mean $3 per mBTC; sorry I have to get used to thinking in terms of mBTC.  

i have the same problem

maybe $3 pek k Satoshi is better

You mean $3 per kBit

You mean mbit

this just shows, again, how confusing are these minor denominations.
Yesterday while sending someone a tip for a coupon, I almost lost one of the zeroes. Would have been 10 times more than I intended.

[MahaRamana]

If the november bubble was inflated by bots rather than human behaviour, that bubble could theoretically be discarded.
That would imply that the last real bubble was more than one year ago and that the next real human-driven bubble will soon be getting overdue. 

Yes. I find that news bullish.

[MahaRamana]

this just shows, again, how confusing are these minor denominations.
Yesterday while sending someone a tip for a coupon, I almost lost one of the zeroes. Would have been 10 times more than I intended.

I thought all interfaces are showing the value in both BTC and FIAT ?
Many interfaces now let you input an amount in FIAT and send the corresponding BTC.

[Biodom]

this just shows, again, how confusing are these minor denominations.
Yesterday while sending someone a tip for a coupon, I almost lost one of the zeroes. Would have been 10 times more than I intended.

I thought all interfaces are showing the value in both BTC and FIAT ?
Many interfaces now let you input an amount in FIAT and send the corresponding BTC.

yes, sure, that's why I caught it (was sending BTC, not fixed fiat).  

[zimmah]

If the november bubble was inflated by bots rather than human behaviour, that bubble could theoretically be discarded.
That would imply that the last real bubble was more than one year ago and that the next real human-driven bubble will soon be getting overdue.  

Yes. I find that news bullish.

not true, the bot only affected the price a little, if at all. Also, the bot later sold massive amounts of bitcoin and only the price on gox crashed beyond recover. The other markets did not break away from the long-term trend, as far as we know. Of course it's impossible to tell for sure if the current trend is the real log trend, if even such a thing exists. But with the information we have now, we can conclude we're not really affected by the bot all that much.

We could however still see a double-bubble if wallstreet decides to move at the exact time the regular bubble starts to collapse. However i'm not sure if wallstreet is that bad at timing the market (note they may not be used to bitcoin, even if they're good at trading regular markets, they may overestimate their trading skills which may fail horribly at the bitcoin market). This is mostly wishful thinking though. This would also be a bit of a risky time to buy because often right after a bubble collapse there's a secondary peak (bull trap) and it's often not a good idea to buy during that peak. But if that very peak is the wall street traders moving in, than it's something different.

We'll see. They'll come eventually, but if it's this year or the next, or maybe even 2016 or later... we don't know.