rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[Its About Sharing]

I believe it is ridiculous to think that in 3 years bitcoin will be
-As big in market cap as the U.S. dollar.
-Fully intergrated with all merchants and all consumers
-Full integrated into wall street
-The currency of choice in the mainstream with all consumers clearly choosing bitcoin over fiat
-All employees salaries are paid in btc, all bills are paid in btc, you pay your rent and taxes in btc, etc.

This is the type of thing that the $1,000,000 mark would imply, and I think it would take a lot longer than 3 years. I think it would take it 10 years at least.

That would mean that the 'trendline' needs some serious adjustment - perhaps it is a different shape altogether than a simple exponential increase.

It depends on what variables you are looking at.
For example, USD is an important variable.
If it breaks down quicker from here, we will just see a shift of wealth.
Those places to shift to are limited.
If you look at fewer variables in the price discovery formula, then a high
Price of bitcoin doesn't fit that kind of linear thinking.

[AlexGR]

According to Peter_R's Metcalf Law model, the bitcoin price is proportional to the square of the number of transactions. An increase of 3.2x in bitcoin transaction quantity supports a 10x increase in bitcoin price. Currently, transaction volume is about 60,000 daily. To support prices 1000x greater than today we need transaction growth 31.6x greater. That works out to 1.9 million transactions per day. Is that doable in three years?

You mean like 22 transactions per second, or 13200 transactions per block, with about 6.6Mb each?

Not possible by this metric alone, so maybe on-chain Bitcoin will not reach 1M USD in the next 3 years?

Also current price growth suggests a price of 3.67M USD in exactly 3 years, something has to change for this to be possible.

Even if scaling like that was accomplished "easily", what would have to change is the rate with which fiat is issued:

3.67mn USD per BTC x 3600 per day = 13.2bn USD per day to buy daily supply = 4.82 trillion USD per year to buy annual supply.

The monetary base of USD/EUR etc wouldn't be able to cope with that - even if conversion is taking place at just 25% of BTCs (>1trn USD per year required).

[cbutters]

Assuming bitcoin does take over a lot of traditional uses of money; People who think it will take 25-30 years for bitcoin to take hold are absolutely mental in my opinion.

Do you people not remember how quickly the the internet transformed purchasing and absolutely destroyed most brick and mortar outfits within 3-5 years?

How quickly did netflix put all video stores out of business? I fondly remember going to the video store to rent movies... it was only 2-3 years ago!

Now Look how far we have come in only 8 months... Last year we didn't even know if bitcoin was legal!, now the US is creating regulation and large companies seem to be embracing it. Dish Network and big gold retailers legitimizing bitcoin, Last year, the only way to get bitcoins was through mining or localbitcoins.... (or shady paypal / wire transfers out of the country) Now we can buy on coinbase / circle / etc... gyft came online. Someone can now easily live just on bitcoin alone. This is 8 months of incredible progress!

I'm not saying bitcoin necessarily WILL take over all our financial systems, but the internet payments sector / wealth accumulation / speculation vehicle portions of bitcoin if they DO happen will basically happen incredibly quickly...  Despite being complex... bitcoin is actually much simpler to use and implement than current banking and payment structures. Once we reach a certain point with bitcoin.... mass adoption will be incredible and very quick, think smartphone adoption.... from 2007 with the first iphone / android phones to 2014 where everyone has a smartphone / iphone. Also cell phone adoption... When I entered high school in 1999, 1% of kids maybe had a cell phone if any.. by the time my little sister graduated in 2005, every kid had a cell phone. I think that will be the speed at which this thing happens. 7 year boom.

25-30 years might be the range for TOTAL adoption.... but 80-90% of bitcoins major growth periods for bitcoin and bitcoin type technologies will happen within a decade, not a quarter of a century.

I think you make good points, but maybe you are getting ahead of yourself wrt retail

I can't argue with those statistics..... I think my bias is the fact that I mostly pay attention to electronics and computing product sales which are industries that were probably much more heavily affected by e-commerce than the overall economy was. (i.e. people still buy groceries in the grocery store, cars at the dealerships, food at a restaurant, but they no longer go to ultimate electronics, compusa, or the mom and pop computer store to buy their computer parts.)

[Biodom]

The monetary base of USD/EUR etc wouldn't be able to cope with that - even if conversion is taking place at just 25% of BTCs (>1trn USD per year required).

Until a few months ago, QE program in US alone was buying 1trn a year in treasuries and mortgages.

[Its About Sharing]

The monetary base of USD/EUR etc wouldn't be able to cope with that - even if conversion is taking place at just 25% of BTCs (>1trn USD per year required).

Until a few months ago, QE program in US alone was buying 1trn a year in treasuries and mortgages.

Funny you should mention that. I just printed an article on that to show my students, especially the bankers. 
Any idea on the level now?

This should almost be criminal. All that money just sitting in banks or going to stock buy backs and such?

Nice place to start.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-06/500-billion-2013-corporate-buybacks-half-qe
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304020704579276633464650694

ps - Argentina has an exchange. This is the start of another wave imo...

[SlipperySlope]

According to Peter_R's Metcalf Law model, the bitcoin price is proportional to the square of the number of transactions. An increase of 3.2x in bitcoin transaction quantity supports a 10x increase in bitcoin price. Currently, transaction volume is about 60,000 daily. To support prices 1000x greater than today we need transaction growth 31.6x greater. That works out to 1.9 million transactions per day. Is that doable in three years?

You mean like 22 transactions per second, or 13200 transactions per block, with about 6.6Mb each?

Not possible by this metric alone, so maybe on-chain Bitcoin will not reach 1M USD in the next 3 years?

Also current price growth suggests a price of 3.67M USD in exactly 3 years, something has to change for this to be possible.

Even if scaling like that was accomplished "easily", what would have to change is the rate with which fiat is issued:

3.67mn USD per BTC x 3600 per day = 13.2bn USD per day to buy daily supply = 4.82 trillion USD per year to buy annual supply.

The monetary base of USD/EUR etc wouldn't be able to cope with that - even if conversion is taking place at just 25% of BTCs (>1trn USD per year required).

The Bitcoin wiki has an article on scaling here that addresses 2000 transactions per second. That is doable. And I have a project to re-engineer the Bitcoin network that makes it even more doable, should I succeed.

Currently, I suppose that the mining reward is mostly spent on new mining equipment and power. The equipment manufacturers may accept bitcoin payments. So a portion of the mining reward may stay in bitcoin and not be exchanged for fiat.  In the summer of 2016 the block creation reward is scheduled to again halve to 12.6 bitcoins per mined block. My logistic model has a trend price of about $840,000 for July 1, 2017. So three years from now, 1800 daily block creation reward bitcoins would have a fiat value of $151 million. Even if converted entirely into fiat, I think that figure is achievable by worldwide investment.

[SlipperySlope]

And here is the 6-hour resolution chart from Bitstamp, showing the 10 day rally reaching prices not seen since March . . .

[AlexGR]

According to Peter_R's Metcalf Law model, the bitcoin price is proportional to the square of the number of transactions. An increase of 3.2x in bitcoin transaction quantity supports a 10x increase in bitcoin price. Currently, transaction volume is about 60,000 daily. To support prices 1000x greater than today we need transaction growth 31.6x greater. That works out to 1.9 million transactions per day. Is that doable in three years?

You mean like 22 transactions per second, or 13200 transactions per block, with about 6.6Mb each?

Not possible by this metric alone, so maybe on-chain Bitcoin will not reach 1M USD in the next 3 years?

Also current price growth suggests a price of 3.67M USD in exactly 3 years, something has to change for this to be possible.

Even if scaling like that was accomplished "easily", what would have to change is the rate with which fiat is issued:

3.67mn USD per BTC x 3600 per day = 13.2bn USD per day to buy daily supply = 4.82 trillion USD per year to buy annual supply.

The monetary base of USD/EUR etc wouldn't be able to cope with that - even if conversion is taking place at just 25% of BTCs (>1trn USD per year required).

The Bitcoin wiki has an article on scaling here that addresses 2000 transactions per second. That is doable. And I have a project to re-engineer the Bitcoin network that makes it even more doable, should I succeed.

Currently, I suppose that the mining reward is mostly spent on new mining equipment and power. The equipment manufacturers may accept bitcoin payments. So a portion of the mining reward may stay in bitcoin and not be exchanged for fiat.  In the summer of 2016 the block creation reward is scheduled to again halve to 12.6 bitcoins per mined block. My logistic model has a trend price of about $840,000 for July 1, 2017. So three years from now, 1800 daily block creation reward bitcoins would have a fiat value of $151 million. Even if converted entirely into fiat, I think that figure is achievable by worldwide investment.

One could make that happen much faster, without transactions, if instead of waiting on the wisdom charts all day, he drove BTC demand up drying liquidity... how? With the plan I proposed earlier about minting physical gold/platinum/silver coins with BTCs in them for collectors and precious metal "stackers". This could drive the entire annual supply of BTCs out of circulation, every year - thus making (practical) inflation go to zero or negative, as new bitcoins are "stacked" as rounds / collectibles. The number of 1 oz gold rounds that are sold every year are like millions. Same for silver rounds... only the US mint makes 50mn american silver eagles. What if stackers and collectors had the option to buy gold+silver+btc in them? It would be a triple-hedge-coin against fiat consisting of PM, collectible/rare (due to bitcoins rarity) and self-hedged between bitcoin and gold/silver/platinum.

Silver/Goldbugs generally dislike bitcoin but what they do really hate is FIAT - so in this they sometimes find Bitcoin to be an ally (and sometimes to be a government scam to divert from their favorite PMs). Some times they also understand numismatics and how mintage affects rarity and value and in this they can't really escape the proposition of gold bitcoins. People are currently paying premiums for ...Pandas (gold coins in china), why wouldn't they pay if there was a gold coin + 1 btc in it?

[pinksheep]

[/quote]



Currently, I suppose that the mining reward is mostly spent on new mining equipment and power. The equipment manufacturers may accept bitcoin payments. So a portion of the mining reward may stay in bitcoin and not be exchanged for fiat.  In the summer of 2016 the block creation reward is scheduled to again halve to 12.6 bitcoins per mined block. My logistic model has a trend price of about $840,000 for July 1, 2017. So three years from now, 1800 daily block creation reward bitcoins would have a fiat value of $151 million. Even if converted entirely into fiat, I think that figure is achievable by worldwide investment.



[/quote]

A price of above $840,000 by July 1 2017 is one of the most optimistic predictions I have seen. In percentage terms, how likely do you think it is that that will happen?

[dnaleor]

One could make that happen much faster, without transactions, if instead of waiting on the wisdom charts all day, he drove BTC demand up drying liquidity... how? With the plan I proposed earlier about minting physical gold/platinum/silver coins with BTCs in them for collectors and precious metal "stackers". This could drive the entire annual supply of BTCs out of circulation, every year - thus making (practical) inflation go to zero or negative, as new bitcoins are "stacked" as rounds / collectibles. The number of 1 oz gold rounds that are sold every year are like millions. Same for silver rounds... only the US mint makes 50mn american silver eagles. What if stackers and collectors had the option to buy gold+silver+btc in them? It would be a triple-hedge-coin against fiat consisting of PM, collectible/rare (due to bitcoins rarity) and self-hedged between bitcoin and gold/silver/platinum.

Silver/Goldbugs generally dislike bitcoin but what they do really hate is FIAT - so in this they sometimes find Bitcoin to be an ally (and sometimes to be a government scam to divert from their favorite PMs). Some times they also understand numismatics and how mintage affects rarity and value and in this they can't really escape the proposition of gold bitcoins. People are currently paying premiums for ...Pandas (gold coins in china), why wouldn't they pay if there was a gold coin + 1 btc in it?

you forget that when 1 BTC is added to gold 1 oz coins, the price of that BTC will become higher, and the next year, less people will be able to afford the new coin for that year. In the end, they are buying BTC with a golden cold storage option Don't think your proposal would have a large effect.

Although, I'm sure that most of the casascius coins who are already "in the wild", will not be opened for a long time.
You can check it here: http://casascius.uberbills.com/
Total unopened (active) coins: 57666.4 BTC

Especially the silver and gold coins will remain closed.

[BitDreams]

Current chart: https://www.tradingview.com/v/gT8w1Qnq/

This was drawn on May 25, see live chart above:

[zimmah]

the previous rallies were much steeper than the purple line you show.

If the same pattern holds we should see the rally start rght about now (which seems to be happening) and end somewhere around one week before August at around $5000 or so.

[TERA]

I think you're neglecting the recovery/ramp-up phase which historically has been symmetrical to the decline most of the time.

[BitDreams]

the previous rallies were much steeper than the purple line you show.

If the same pattern holds we should see the rally start rght about now (which seems to be happening) and end somewhere around one week before August at around $5000 or so.

Here's what I'm looking at. I've drawn a purple trend line to the left.

Not the final spike, (which is likely to be retraced) but the next base for that spike - the next higher low.



Edit:

I have found error in my ways but it doesn't matter to me because it just forced in there really nice on my andrews pitchfork

https://www.tradingview.com/stock-charts-support/index.php/Three_Drivers_Pattern

Bullish Three Drivers Pattern

Always remember that symmetry of both price and time are of extreme importance in this pattern's formation.

Drives 2 and 3 should   be specific extensions of the A and C retracements. The extensions should be 127.2% or 161.8%.

The A and C retracements will typically be either 61.8% or 78.6% of the previous swings. The possible exception is in strongly trending markets. If the market is trending strongly, these retracements may be only 38.2% or 50%.

The times (horizontal distances) of the A and C retracements should be as close to symmetrical as possible. The same is true for the extensions (the second and third drives to the bottom).

It is important to remember that this particular pattern is rare. This means that traders should not try to force the pattern onto the chart. If the formation contains price gaps or it is not symmetrical enough (slight variations are ok), it is best to abandon the formation and move on.

Warning from the rule book that I've forced the formation. I'm a curve fitting chARTist so I often draw what I believe will occur on the chart.

[AlexGR]

One could make that happen much faster, without transactions, if instead of waiting on the wisdom charts all day, he drove BTC demand up drying liquidity... how? With the plan I proposed earlier about minting physical gold/platinum/silver coins with BTCs in them for collectors and precious metal "stackers". This could drive the entire annual supply of BTCs out of circulation, every year - thus making (practical) inflation go to zero or negative, as new bitcoins are "stacked" as rounds / collectibles. The number of 1 oz gold rounds that are sold every year are like millions. Same for silver rounds... only the US mint makes 50mn american silver eagles. What if stackers and collectors had the option to buy gold+silver+btc in them? It would be a triple-hedge-coin against fiat consisting of PM, collectible/rare (due to bitcoins rarity) and self-hedged between bitcoin and gold/silver/platinum.

Silver/Goldbugs generally dislike bitcoin but what they do really hate is FIAT - so in this they sometimes find Bitcoin to be an ally (and sometimes to be a government scam to divert from their favorite PMs). Some times they also understand numismatics and how mintage affects rarity and value and in this they can't really escape the proposition of gold bitcoins. People are currently paying premiums for ...Pandas (gold coins in china), why wouldn't they pay if there was a gold coin + 1 btc in it?

you forget that when 1 BTC is added to gold 1 oz coins, the price of that BTC will become higher, and the next year, less people will be able to afford the new coin for that year. In the end, they are buying BTC with a golden cold storage option Don't think your proposal would have a large effect.

Although, I'm sure that most of the casascius coins who are already "in the wild", will not be opened for a long time.
You can check it here: http://casascius.uberbills.com/
Total unopened (active) coins: 57666.4 BTC

Especially the silver and gold coins will remain closed.

But that's the point... to get the price moving instead of simply waiting in front of the wisdom charts on how it will go up by others. If it has the desired effect, all the better. If the balance of price between 1oz + 1 BTC goes out of hand in favor of the BTC (>1:1), you simply make new coin denominations like 1oz + 0.5 btc for example. And this, in itself, from a numismatics perspective, creates further varieties of coin which add to their collectible status.

For example "war nickels" (5c coins in the USA during WW2) had 35% silver because the government didn't want to use copper. This is a historic fact which differentiates them from the other plain nickels. Then you have stuff like which mint minted a coin, the year of circulation etc.

So when each coin carries a bit of history with it, it's even better for the collector... for example "this coin was created after the june 2014 boom and had to compensate with less BTC value to keep prices affordable so it has 0.5 instead of 1 BTC"... Collectors love that stuff. Actually sometimes they pay way too much. You wouldn't believe the numismatic market. People are paying like +1000$ for a coin if it has one-two less minor scratches that takes it to ms67 instead of ms66 for example.

The "unopened" will be an added layer of rarity... It will be like saying Uncirculated + Unopened.

[AlexGR]

I was checking the neural network predictions: http://www.btcpredictions.com/

Indicates stability in 600-620 region for next 10-11 days then drops off a cliff

[birr]

I was checking the neural network predictions: http://www.btcpredictions.com/

Indicates stability in 600-620 region for next 10-11 days then drops off a cliff

The neural network between your ears works much better.

[JHammer]

Did rpietila check out?

[SlipperySlope]

Currently, I suppose that the mining reward is mostly spent on new mining equipment and power. The equipment manufacturers may accept bitcoin payments. So a portion of the mining reward may stay in bitcoin and not be exchanged for fiat.  In the summer of 2016 the block creation reward is scheduled to again halve to 12.6 bitcoins per mined block. My logistic model has a trend price of about $840,000 for July 1, 2017. So three years from now, 1800 daily block creation reward bitcoins would have a fiat value of $151 million. Even if converted entirely into fiat, I think that figure is achievable by worldwide investment.

A price of above $840,000 by July 1 2017 is one of the most optimistic predictions I have seen. In percentage terms, how likely do you think it is that that will happen?

If we get to $269,000 by July 1, 2016 then I would say 50%. Otherwise who knows. The Metcalfe's Law model is compelling.

[BitChick]

Did rpietila check out?

I heard rumors he is on a cruise.  Not sure if that is true but I would love an update.

I am curious if he thinks we are still looking at the new ATH for August or are we back to thinking it is going to be late July.