rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[wachtwoord]

If the november bubble was inflated by bots rather than human behaviour, that bubble could theoretically be discarded.
That would imply that the last real bubble was more than one year ago and that the next real human-driven bubble will soon be getting overdue. 

Yes. I find that news bullish.

not true, the bot only affected the price a little, if at all. Also, the bot later sold massive amounts of bitcoin and only the price on gox crashed beyond recover. The other markets did not break away from the long-term trend, as far as we know. Of course it's impossible to tell for sure if the current trend is the real log trend, if even such a thing exists. But with the information we have now, we can conclude we're not really affected by the bot all that much.

People like to overreact to everything. It could also simply be a bot used for high net worth customers.

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[xxnewbiecoinerxx]

..If BTC is doing its yearly wave, I can capture maybe 30% of the downtrend with 30% of my position, resulting in a 13% gain in my holdings...

Why so conservative in your estimations? The previous bubbles have had at least 3 times retracement from the top. Catching at least 50 percent wouldnt be that much of a problem?

[dreamspark]

..If BTC is doing its yearly wave, I can capture maybe 30% of the downtrend with 30% of my position, resulting in a 13% gain in my holdings...

Why so conservative in your estimations? The previous bubbles have had at least 3 times retracement from the top. Catching at least 50 percent wouldnt be that much of a problem?

A times three retractment from start of bubble to the top would put the price in negative figures, no ?

[SlipperySlope]

..If BTC is doing its yearly wave, I can capture maybe 30% of the downtrend with 30% of my position, resulting in a 13% gain in my holdings...

Why so conservative in your estimations? The previous bubbles have had at least 3 times retracement from the top. Catching at least 50 percent wouldnt be that much of a problem?

I plan to follow Risto's guidance with regard to the percentage of holdings to trade. I would like to capture 50% of the move - hoping for a double, but I would settle for less. My trades would be so small as to not effect the market, unlike the same percentage of Risto's holdings. Timing the peak could be different this time around, in that November 2013 had a pre-peak at $731 before the actual peak at $1163. I expect perhaps multiple of those pre-peak super-exponential rallies that mislead timers such as me.

[dnaleor]

We are in a very strong uptrend. I expect a correction in the next few days. This can't go on. We will be breaking the support line

[Gimmelfarb]

dnaleor, what are your targets for a correction? i have been looking at low 500s and maybe high 400s. maybe 490, not much lower. open to other thoughts, though.

[dnaleor]

dnaleor, what are your targets for a correction? i have been looking at low 500s and maybe high 400s. maybe 490, not much lower. open to other thoughts, though.

I think we need to check the large fib retracements for that:


So my guess is around654.24 (fib retracement). This is also in line with the next "lower high" we need to break at 656.95 USD

Edit: this correction could go down towards the previous fib retracement around 534.07 USD

[wachtwoord]

Ah you're talking about an upwards "correction".

[dnaleor]

Ah you're talking about an upwards "correction".

No, I'm talking about something like this (worst case. I think it's plausible that the correction would not go as low as 534 USD)




edit: another possibility is that we follow the same pattern as in the summer of 2013: https://www.tradingview.com/x/w7II22g4/
In  that case, we might stabilize around the current price area for the next few weeks: between 580 and 620 USD

[wachtwoord]

Okay, thanks for clearing that up. So based on this you plan to sell at $650?

[dnaleor]

Okay, thanks for clearing that up. So based on this you plan to sell at $650?

If the signs are there, and I see the start of a correction, I will sell a little yes. But >80% of my coins are in the SSS plan (I will start selling at 2000 USD using that plan). But yes, I will try to sell some coins and try to buy lower.

That (and some small investments in altcoins and LTC swing trading) is the only way I am able to increase my BTC holdings significantly.
I know it's risky, but buying BTC makes no sense for me. When I put 1000 USD in BTC (a lot of money for me!), I will increase my stash with <5%. Not worth it

[Gimmelfarb]

i had originally planned to sell at the 630-640 level, expecting a similar correction to what you have laid out. however, in watching the pattern formed by the 595 top last night, i think we may have topped already short term and will see this correction happen first.

[dnaleor]

i had originally planned to sell at the 630-640 level, expecting a similar correction to what you have laid out. however, in watching the pattern formed by the 595 top last night, i think we may have topped already short term and will see this correction happen first.

yeah, it seems now that we are again trending down... This small correction, is not worth it, for me, to take risk. I have too little coins to sell...

[Todorius]

i had originally planned to sell at the 630-640 level, expecting a similar correction to what you have laid out. however, in watching the pattern formed by the 595 top last night, i think we may have topped already short term and will see this correction happen first.

yeah, it seems now that we are again trending down... This small correction, is not worth it, for me, to take risk. I have too little coins to sell...

The first Fibo support at 560 seems quite impressive, so I'm not too sure that we're trending down again.
I think a few days of sideways movement at or slightly above 560, then another push for 595, this time breaking through it with ease and pushing for 650.

[BitchicksHusband]

Ah you're talking about an upwards "correction".

No, I'm talking about something like this (worst case. I think it's plausible that the correction would not go as low as 534 USD)




edit: another possibility is that we follow the same pattern as in the summer of 2013: https://www.tradingview.com/x/w7II22g4/
In  that case, we might stabilize around the current price area for the next few weeks: between 580 and 620 USD

If we are bubbling, then we should see about $100-$150 a week until we reach $900-$1100 and then take off on a vertical.  Even during the quick rises, we may have a couple days of stalls.  But if we continue to stall throughout the first couple weeks of June, the bubble will either be late or not at all until something big happens.

[wachtwoord]

We had a flatg period in the last cycle as well. Nothing to worry about. It bubbled quite nicely then.

[pinksheep]

Ah you're talking about an upwards "correction".

No, I'm talking about something like this (worst case. I think it's plausible that the correction would not go as low as 534 USD)




edit: another possibility is that we follow the same pattern as in the summer of 2013: https://www.tradingview.com/x/w7II22g4/
In  that case, we might stabilize around the current price area for the next few weeks: between 580 and 620 USD

If we are bubbling, then we should see about $100-$150 a week until we reach $900-$1100 and then take off on a vertical.  Even during the quick rises, we may have a couple days of stalls.  But if we continue to stall throughout the first couple weeks of June, the bubble will either be late or not at all until something big happens.

So when do you expect the bubble to peak, BitchicksHusband?

[BitChick]

Ah you're talking about an upwards "correction".

No, I'm talking about something like this (worst case. I think it's plausible that the correction would not go as low as 534 USD)




edit: another possibility is that we follow the same pattern as in the summer of 2013: https://www.tradingview.com/x/w7II22g4/
In  that case, we might stabilize around the current price area for the next few weeks: between 580 and 620 USD

If we are bubbling, then we should see about $100-$150 a week until we reach $900-$1100 and then take off on a vertical.  Even during the quick rises, we may have a couple days of stalls.  But if we continue to stall throughout the first couple weeks of June, the bubble will either be late or not at all until something big happens.

So when do you expect the bubble to peak, BitchicksHusband?

I don't want to speak for my husband, but he told me that he expects the peak to be late July, as do many on here.  I would love to say "You were right!" on this one!  (some things are not quite as enjoyable to say that about! )

I have a hard time believing it can be this predictable, but so far it is following the pattern pretty closely.

[wachtwoord]

I don't want to speak for my husband, but he told me that he expects the peak to be late July, as do many on here.  I would love to say "You were right!" on this one!  (some things are not quite as enjoyable to say that about! )

I have a hard time believing it can be this predictable, but so far it is following the pattern pretty closely.

If enough people believe in the pattern, it will manifest itself. It's funny, it sounds like a children story but it does work like this. What is enough people is a whole different story though.

[nioc]

I believe