rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[wachtwoord]

Very interesting approach. I do however have the feeling this system is gameable with a very concentrated strategy.

How would you do it? What if your only competitor was me, and my published numbers? How would you game the system to the maximum vs. me?  

EDIT: After a few trial rounds this will become a serious competition with cash prizes, so better get used to it 

What I meant was that with these competitions your goal is usually not to have a nice average score. The goal is to become number 1 (or sometimes 2nd or 3rd) to get a high prize. There is not so much difference between slightly lower places or merely ending up last. Therefore my strategy would be to make very concentrated predictions (bets ) probably to the market price at the time of making the prediction (because I don't believe I have predictive capabilities). If I make the ranges small and the percentages large I will either score very highly or extremely low. You polarize the score you'll get and therefore maximize your winning odds.

If you're going to award prizes I really shouldn't have brought this up as this is the only edge I would bring to the table. I've just given it up completely

[wilfried]

so here´s my bet

4466-100000; 0.1%
2818-4465; 0.4%
1778-2817; 2.0%
1413-1777; 2.0%
1122-1412; 3.0%
1000-1121; 2.5%
891-999; 3.5%
794-890; 5.5%
708-793; 8.0%
631-707; 14.0%
562-630; 18.0%
501-561; 17.0%
447-500; 9.0%
398-446; 6.0%
355-397; 4.0%
316-354; 2.0%
251-315; 2.0%
0-250; 1.0%

[rpietila]

so here´s my bet

4466-100000; 0.1%
2818-4465; 0.4%
1778-2817; 2.0%
1413-1777; 2.0%
1122-1412; 3.0%
1000-1121; 2.5%
891-999; 3.5%
794-890; 5.5%
708-793; 8.0%
631-707; 14.0%
562-630; 18.0%
501-561; 17.0%
447-500; 9.0%
398-446; 6.0%
355-397; 4.0%
316-354; 2.0%
251-315; 2.0%
0-250; 1.0%

LOL, did you make any changes?

There is not so much difference between slightly lower places or merely ending up last. Therefore my strategy would be to make very concentrated predictions (bets ) probably to the market price at the time of making the prediction (because I don't believe I have predictive capabilities). If I make the ranges small and the percentages large I will either score very highly or extremely low. You polarize the score you'll get and therefore maximize your winning odds.

The competition would be the sum of many rounds, so under this scoring system you would be very lucky make a high score as missed predictions would penalize you so heavily, compared to the right ones.

[Bronstad]

I am willing to predict where the price is 2014-5-17 (30 days from now) volume weighted average Bitstamp price:

Price in USD range; probability

900-100000; 1.0%
800-899; 2.0%
751-799; 3.0%
709-750; 4.0%
688-708; 5.0%
651-687; 8.0%
621-650; 13.0%
589-620; 18.0%
501-588; 12.0%
431-500; 10.0%
401-430; 9.0%
381-400; 8.0%
331-380; 6.0%
0-330; 1.0%

(sideways until june, with slight ticks upwards on the way there)

[wachtwoord]

The competition would be the sum of many rounds, so under this scoring system you would be very lucky make a high score as missed predictions would penalize you so heavily, compared to the right ones.

Sure that helps but I would still employ the same tactic as getting it completely right gives so much points and getting it wrong only means you get a zero score. I would suggest a negative component for being very far away. How about this technique:

* The goal is to get as low a score as possible because the score is an indication for how of you are
* You provide a list of n predictions (i is the index of these predictions) as you did before, where we call each probability P_i
* All the probabilities must add to 1 (or 100% as you put it)
* For each prediction we take the middle of the range in our formula M_i
* The actual price at the end of the term is X

Then we sum for each of the predictions the following:



And of course we add all the score for each round and the lowest score wins.

**The only do we calculate and square all mistakes and then add them weighted on the users estimated probability. This gives a good indication of how wrong each of the participants is.

[lumierre]

So a 76% chance price will be higher than today in the next 30 days. Sounds good.

[rpietila]

The competition would be the sum of many rounds, so under this scoring system you would be very lucky make a high score as missed predictions would penalize you so heavily, compared to the right ones.

Sure that helps but I would still employ the same tactic as getting it completely right gives so much points and getting it wrong only means you get a zero score. I would suggest a negative component for being very far away.

Read again. Even under my current model, you get infinitely many negative points if your prediction for a probability is zero, and it does happen.

How about this technique:

* The goal is to get as low a score as possible because the score is an indication for how of you are
* You provide a list of n predictions (i is the index of these predictions) as you did before, where we call each probability P_i
* All the probabilities must add to 1 (or 100% as you put it)
* For each prediction we take the middle of the range in our formula M_i
* The actual price at the end of the term is X

Then we sum for each of the predictions the following:



And of course we add all the score for each round and the lowest score wins.

[chessnut]

4466-100000;0%
2818-4465;0%
1778-2817;0%
1413-1777;0 %
1122-1412; 0%
1000-1121; 0%
891-999; 2%
794-890; 3%
708-793; 6%
631-707; 16%
562-630; 26%
501-561; 24%
447-500; 14%
398-446; 4%
355-397; 3%
316-354; 2%
251-315; 0%
0-250; 0%

oh boy, I hope it doesnt go to $1000 - $100,000. Ill get a terrible score

[wachtwoord]

Game on! 

4466-100000;0%
2818-4465;0%
1778-2817;0%
1413-1777;0 %
1122-1412; 0%
1000-1121; 0%
891-999; 0%
794-890; 0%
708-793; 0%
631-707; 0%
562-630; 15%
501-561; 75%
447-500; 10%
398-446; 0%
355-397; 0%
316-354; 0%
251-315; 0%
0-250; 0%

[Guinpen]

10001-100000; 0.001%
5000-10000; 0.01%
2000-4999; 0.1%
1000-1999; 0.199%
900-999; 0.5%
800-899; 1.29%
700-799; 2%
650-699; 7.5%
601-649; 14.0%
560-600; 15.0%
500-559; 25.5%
481-499; 17.0%
441-480; 8.0%
420-440; 5.5%
380-419; 2.0%
251-379; 0.9%
0-250; 0.5%

[sgbett]

in 30 days? I'm short term bear, reckon there might be one last downward move. I don't know if it we'll ever test the 266 but if we did that would be one hell of a springboard.

20000-999999 0%
10000-19999 1%
5000-9999 1%
2000-4999 3%
1000-1999 5%
600-999 10%
500-599 25%
400-499 30%
250-399 20%
100-249 5%
0-99 0%

[pietje]

4466-100000;    0,1%
2818-4465;    0,1%
1778-2817;    0,5%
1413-1777;    1%
1122-1412;    2%
1000-1121;    2%
891-999;    3%
794-890;    10%
708-793;    12%
631-707;    16%
562-630;    20,2%
501-561;    10%
447-500;    10%
398-446;    5%
355-397;    3%
316-354;    3%
251-315;    2%
0-250;    0,1%

[Superluz]

Here I come! 

4466-100000; 0.5%
2818-4465; 1%
1778-2817; 1%
1413-1777; 2%
1122-1412; 8%
1000-1121; 10%
891-999; 25%
794-890; 25%
708-793; 10%
631-707; 6%
562-630; 2%
501-561; 2%
447-500; 2%
398-446; 2%
355-397; 1%
316-354; 1%
251-315; 1%
0-250; 0.5%

[HeliKopterBen]

10000-100000; 0.1%
2000-10000; 0.9%
1500-2000; 2%
1300-1500; 3%
1100-1300; 10%
1000-1100; 12%
900-1000; 14%
800-900; 20%
700-800; 14%
600-700; 10%
500-600; 8%
400-500; 4%
250-400; 1.9%
0-250; 0.1%

[elg]

Predicting where the price is 2014-5-17 (30 days from now) volume weighted average Bitstamp price:

Price in USD range; probability

900-100000; 1.0%
800-899; 2.0%
751-799; 5.0%
709-750; 6.0%
688-708; 6.0%
651-687; 17.0%
621-650; 16.0%
589-620; 14.0%
501-588; 10.0%
431-500; 9.0%
401-430; 7.0%
381-400; 4.0%
331-380; 2.0%
0-330; 1.0%

[Dotto]

Please move this predictions to another thread

[Its About Sharing]

Please move this predictions to another thread

10000-100000; 0.1%
2000-10000; 0.9%
1500-2000; 1%
1300-1500; 2%
1100-1300; 3%
1000-1100; 4%
900-1000; 5%
800-900; 6%
700-800; 7%
600-700; 8%
500-600; 19%
400-500; 25%
250-400; 15%
0-250; 4%

[Trolololo]

Here is my bet for 17th may 2014:

3001-1000000: 0.1%
2801-3000: 3.9%
1401-2800; 45.0%
451-1400: 15.0%
350-450: 30.0%
251-350: 5.0%
0-250: 1.0%

[BitchicksHusband]

. . . Not many are in real life prepared for $100k per bitcoin this year, even though it is possible. It may ruin many people's life more than bitcoin going to zero.

Ha. Our log trend models predict an average price of $100k per bitcoin in about 18 months. What difference does 12 months make when it comes to ruining people's lives?

100K ruining people's lives?  (now or in 18 months which really is not that much longer)  Is the thinking that it will be like those that win the lottery and are not in the position to handle such wealth so quickly?

http://www.complex.com/pop-culture/2009/07/curse-of-the-lotto-how-the-millions-can-ruin-lives

The gravest danger from sudden wealth, e.g. 1000x your current net worth, is how unprepared one could be with regard to the safety of the household and loved ones. We take for granted the enormous amount of security provided by simple anonymity when living in a developed country with an average amount of cash.

Here in Austin however, we have a world famous billionaire Michael Dell. From a distance I have seen a couple of his estates which are patrolled by private, armed guards. There is no way that Mr. Dell or his family could enjoy the sights and street life like I can. So much of what I enjoy about life would be interrupted if everyone stared at me in public, or my bodyguards, or my armored car.

What of all the beggars and solicitors that would seek my attention?

I need great wealth to fund greater goals and am old enough that the majority of my happy ordinary life is behind me. If I must move away from my less-than-secure but lovely and loving neighborhood to a compound, so be it, and live with guards, so be it. But I know that my dear wife will never be as happy and will blame me for the rest of my life when she fully realizes what I have done by simply holding on to bitcoin.

One of the top NHL players used to live near me.  He would go to events with my neighbor 2 doors down, who lives in a 1500 sq ft house.  I saw this player at a nearby mall leaving with his wife and kids.  I said, "Hi" and asked him if anyone recognized him.  He said I was the first one all day.

It is well-known that he made $8 million that year and had no particular security and wanders around in public anonymously.  I think you may be overestimating the problem.

Wow well nhl players dont really get the attention they deserve.. in the states ncaa will get played over stanley cup finals.. a shame because there is no sport that can compare to the challenge of winning the stanley cup.. Here in Canada im sure he wouldnt walk around like that.

I also met Wayne Gretzky at his restaurant in Toronto when he was with the Kings (so, the height of his popularity).  He only had his brother and his agent with him, but no security.

[SlipperySlope]

In this 12-hour Bitstamp chart, I moved the support trend line down to $470, which does not change my biased expectation of a sideways or upside breakout through the long term resistance trend line - within 30 days.