rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[akujin]

What's up with those predictions? Is there a game in here? 

[1714943303]

1714943303

[infofront]

What's up with those predictions? Is there a game in here? 

It's called "Who can make the most money?"

[ibuyltc]

882-100,000; .5%
776-881; 40%
701-775; 50%
641-700; 6%
562-640; 3%
0-561; .5%

[MahaRamana]

In this 12-hour Bitstamp chart, I moved the support trend line down to $470, which does not change my biased expectation of a sideways or upside breakout through the long term resistance trend line - within 30 days.

If you put it at 400, you will not have to update it so frequently

[ArticMine]

Here is my bet:

50000-100000        0.05%
15000-49999.99      0.10%
4000-14999.99       2.00%
1161-3999.99       19.00%
800-1160.99         25.00%
450-799.99           33.00%
331-449.99             7.50%
256-330.99           13.00%
33-255.99              0.34%
0-32.99                 0.01%

Volatility is a given with Bitcoin hence the two peaks.

[SlipperySlope]

The upper resistance line goes all the way back to the November peak and that is the one with drama. The lower resistance line which has already been pierced, only goes back to April 16.

[SlipperySlope]

Here is the same rally as viewed from Huobi, where zero-fee trading yields much more volume and liquidity. The smooth, monotonically ascending rally on this 3-minute chart, is evidence I think of a whale sized buy order being executed by a bot or manually in portions while waiting for asks to fill in. The large total order gets filled with less slippage given the timely arrival of new sellers.

If a single large order did propel this impulse, then prices should begin a damped oscillation centered about 484 on Bitstamp. Alternatively, momentum traders could jump on board this short term rally.

[rpietila]

Quick TA update (at $500):
- 6H candle color/volume: tall candles have again turned red, conclusion: immediate trend is down-ish
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $70, slippage to buy: $55, conclusion: downside volatility risk
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.328 log units. The trendline is at $1,043 and rising $7 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (note: it is not necessary that 'rock bottom' will change until the parabolic uptrend starts, because the trendline is itself rising)
- Sentiment: n/a
- Prognosis: shortest term unsecure, mid-term reversal seems confirmed, long-term buy zone

[rpietila]

16 probability predictions take part in this first preliminary round.

The geometric average probability densities for selected numbers:

$3000 = 0.0003%
$1500 = 0.0012%
$1000 = 0.0034%
$700 = 0.0653%
$600 = 0.1404%
$500 = 0.0993%
$400 = 0.0561%
$300 = 0.0087%
$200 = 0.0015%.

(for example, $700 means here that the price in 2014-5-17 is in the range of $699.50-$700.49).

Interesting how there is very little hopes for $1000; going back to 400 is regarded as 15 times more probable, $300 is almost 3 times as probable and even $200 is nearly half as probable.

[rpietila]

The above shows the bearishness. In Bitcoin's history, only once (out of 1000+ times) has one month change been worse than -60% negative.

Whereas about 15% of 30-day periods has actually seen the price at least double (+100%), a feat that the current forecasters think is almost impossible.

Since 2013-1-1, 16.3% of 30-day periods have seen the price at least double.

[chessnut]

The above shows the bearishness. In Bitcoin's history, only once (out of 1000+ times) has one month change been worse than -60% negative.

Whereas about 15% of 30-day periods has actually seen the price at least double (+100%), a feat that the current forecasters think is almost impossible.

Since 2013-1-1, 16.3% of 30-day periods have seen the price at least double.

But has the monthly price ever doubled directly after a monthly low? that is my (only) argument against $1000 in one months time.

EDIT ok lol it has BUT has has the monthly price ever doubled after the historical capitulation low?

[rpietila]

The above shows the bearishness. In Bitcoin's history, only once (out of 1000+ times) has one month change been worse than -60% negative.

Whereas about 15% of 30-day periods has actually seen the price at least double (+100%), a feat that the current forecasters think is almost impossible.

Since 2013-1-1, 16.3% of 30-day periods have seen the price at least double.

But has the monthly price ever doubled directly after a monthly low? that is my (only) argument against $1000 in one months time.

EDIT ok lol it has BUT has has the monthly price ever doubled after the historical capitulation low?

2011-12-6 onwards. That was 15 days after the bottom of 2011.
2013-10-7 onwards. That was 90 days after the bottom of 7/2013.

So if we are in 2011, the price is set to double now, but stay contained afterwards. If 2013, there'll be a plateau first and then rocket.

[aminorex]

The above shows the bearishness. In Bitcoin's history, only once (out of 1000+ times) has one month change been worse than -60% negative.

Whereas about 15% of 30-day periods has actually seen the price at least double (+100%), a feat that the current forecasters think is almost impossible.

Since 2013-1-1, 16.3% of 30-day periods have seen the price at least double.

But has the monthly price ever doubled directly after a monthly low? that is my (only) argument against $1000 in one months time.

EDIT ok lol it has BUT has has the monthly price ever doubled after the historical capitulation low?

Naively, it is MORE likely to gain strongly after a sharp drop.

[chessnut]

Naively, it is MORE likely to gain strongly after a sharp drop.

yup agreed but I am talking about the statistics not the probability.

[Feri22]

The above shows the bearishness. In Bitcoin's history, only once (out of 1000+ times) has one month change been worse than -60% negative.

Whereas about 15% of 30-day periods has actually seen the price at least double (+100%), a feat that the current forecasters think is almost impossible.

Since 2013-1-1, 16.3% of 30-day periods have seen the price at least double.

But has the monthly price ever doubled directly after a monthly low? that is my (only) argument against $1000 in one months time.

EDIT ok lol it has BUT has has the monthly price ever doubled after the historical capitulation low?

2011-12-6 onwards. That was 15 days after the bottom of 2011.
2013-10-7 onwards. That was 90 days after the bottom of 7/2013.

So if we are in 2011, the price is set to double now, but stay contained afterwards. If 2013, there'll be a plateau first and then rocket.

I respect your analyzes and your comments, but I think we are in 2014...I think each time it is unique bubble and unique crash...i still don't understand why it is still coming in similiar timing pattern and i actually believe the next bubble will occur during june-august, but i still think that every time it is just many coincidences put together and every time it is unique...

We don't know where the price would be if there was no MtGox DDOS attack last april, no China rally, no China crash, no MTGOX crash etc...I undersand the argument the price of BTC must go up if there is demand since it is scarce, but i don't understand how this can happen again and again in similiar pattern...You can't possible predict China rally, MTgox DDOS attacks, MTGOX crash (ok this was predictable long time, but still not 100%) How would you explain it? I think for the next rally we would need Wall Street money and i really believe it will come in the right time when we should start to rally, but how is this even possible? I don't get it...

[damnek]

The above shows the bearishness. In Bitcoin's history, only once (out of 1000+ times) has one month change been worse than -60% negative.

Whereas about 15% of 30-day periods has actually seen the price at least double (+100%), a feat that the current forecasters think is almost impossible.

Since 2013-1-1, 16.3% of 30-day periods have seen the price at least double.

But has the monthly price ever doubled directly after a monthly low? that is my (only) argument against $1000 in one months time.

EDIT ok lol it has BUT has has the monthly price ever doubled after the historical capitulation low?

2011-12-6 onwards. That was 15 days after the bottom of 2011.
2013-10-7 onwards. That was 90 days after the bottom of 7/2013.

So if we are in 2011, the price is set to double now, but stay contained afterwards. If 2013, there'll be a plateau first and then rocket.

I respect your analyzes and your comments, but I think we are in 2014...I think each time it is unique bubble and unique crash...i still don't understand why it is still coming in similiar timing pattern and i actually believe the next bubble will occur during june-august, but i still think that every time it is just many coincidences put together and every time it is unique...

We don't know where the price would be if there was no MtGox DDOS attack last april, no China rally, no China crash, no MTGOX crash etc...I undersand the argument the price of BTC must go up if there is demand since it is scarce, but i don't understand how this can happen again and again in similiar pattern...You can't possible predict China rally, MTgox DDOS attacks, MTGOX crash (ok this was predictable long time, but still not 100%) How would you explain it? I think for the next rally we would need Wall Street money and i really believe it will come in the right time when we should start to rally, but how is this even possible? I don't get it...

In the end, it is that the people who trade bitcoin that make up the price of bitcoin. Since we're kind of in uncharted waters, we tend to look back at historical data to see how bitcoin used to walk through this seemingly periodical cycle. The cycle looks slightly different each time to make it unpredictable enough in order to shake out weak traders, but at the same time it is the law of human greed that we see take place, so I believe that we'll continue to see these cycles for a while.

The traders as a collective are surprisingly good at setting the fair price and predicting when "wall street money" will enter the market. It seems that this cycle is taking longer than the other ones, but it looks like we'll be right on track with the recovery for Q4 of 2014 when the first bitcoin fund is going to be publicly traded.

[zimmah]

markets are for a large part physiological

[MahaRamana]

I respect your analyzes and your comments, but I think we are in 2014...I think each time it is unique bubble and unique crash...i still don't understand why it is still coming in similiar timing pattern and i actually believe the next bubble will occur during june-august, but i still think that every time it is just many coincidences put together and every time it is unique...

We don't know where the price would be if there was no MtGox DDOS attack last april, no China rally, no China crash, no MTGOX crash etc...I undersand the argument the price of BTC must go up if there is demand since it is scarce, but i don't understand how this can happen again and again in similiar pattern...You can't possible predict China rally, MTgox DDOS attacks, MTGOX crash (ok this was predictable long time, but still not 100%) How would you explain it? I think for the next rally we would need Wall Street money and i really believe it will come in the right time when we should start to rally, but how is this even possible? I don't get it...

We can (try to) predict the pattern because everything in life happens through patterns, everything moves through patterns and life is only movement. Even atoms are only energy patterns and thoughts are also just patterns.
You think that the markets reacted to China or MtGox, but in reality the market movement and the "event" are only two sides of a same coin, or two dimensions of the same movement. Indeed, you could as much say that this or that event happened because the market needed to go in that or that direction. Markets are just movements in the collective mind, they don't "exist by themselves". What the collective mind will focus its attention on, and thus the "events" that the collective mind will create, depend on where we are in the movement of the pattern.
The patterns will be there, but we don't exactly know their timing and we don't know what will be used as a "cause to justify them". In fact, their cause already exists today but the collective mind just has not focused its attention on them : they are latent.

[rpietila]

I found some results from the correlation of (previous_month;next_month) pairs. In other words, how the percentage gain in the previous month correlates with the gain of the coming month.

1. The linear trend was with positive slope, so in general it goes up the more, the more it has already gone up mo/mo.  
y = 0,2394x + 0,0672
R² = 0,05661

2. If it has crashed -22% or more in the previous month, the next month has never been better than +76%.

3. If it has crashed -48% or more, the next month has also always been negative!

4. If it has gone up at least +6% and not more than +255% (LOL) in the previous month, the next month has never been worse than -32%.

5. About zero gain last month can lead to 500% gain next month (or -50% loss).


2014-5-19: Our Last Month has been -0.083 == -17%

[nioc]

So where does -17% fit in?

Go go go with the cross correlation of random information!!