rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[Todorius]

On Huobi, this does look slightly more optimistic. Indeed, since Bitstamp is following Huobis every step it seems, I'd put more relevance to this chart:



As you can see, in logarithmic scale, the descending trendline from the 8000CNY bubble pop in December, has already been broken.
We are above that trendline now, since a week or so.
Also, the 3d MACD has crossed on Huobi, which is quite a strong signal I'd say. This is the first real chance for trend reversal.

[windjc]

On Huobi, this does look slightly more optimistic. Indeed, since Bitstamp is following Huobis every step it seems, I'd put more relevance to this chart:



As you can see, in logarithmic scale, the descending trendline from the 8000CNY bubble pop in December, has already been broken.
We are above that trendline now, since a week or so.
Also, the 3d MACD has crossed on Huobi, which is quite a strong signal I'd say. This is the first real chance for trend reversal.

Yes, there is a chance here for bulls. However, without fresh fiat coming to the exchanges, which hasn't happened in months, the bulls stand no chance. Will that happen? That is the question. The longer the market contracts here the more bearish it becomes.

[rpietila]

The longer the market contracts here the more bearish it becomes.

I beg to disagree, based on the fundamentals:
- A revolutionary innovation with a logistic adoption curve
- Total number of coins is constant
- Every halving of price means that new fiat entering the market scoops double the amount coins

The only thing supporting your assertion imo is that a longer decline prompts people to sell more, which holds true with some, but their share of total coins is quite small (after this long a decline at least  )

Bitcoin's utility is not affected by a further decline towards 250, which is the reason that it is not in the cards. Only a vicious circle in utility would cause a spiralling towards zero, but we have ample evidence from 2011-2013 that utility grows constantly, reversing the downtrend when it's time. Price fluctuation just gives better entry and exit points.

It is very much possible that we have to wait 3-6 months for the new fiat though. Then we will have so many people telling afterwards: "I wish I had bought at $500 but it seemed to be going nowhere.. "

[AnonyMint]

The price hit the $300 - $350 target I wrote about upthread.

The longer the market contracts here the more bearish it becomes.

I beg to disagree, based on the fundamentals:
- A revolutionary innovation with a logistic adoption curve

Log-logistic as I showed upthread. Big difference.

And I am no longer talking hypothetical. I speak from a standpoint of knowing what is going on behind the scenes that will soon hit you.

- Total number of coins is constant

Fantasy. Once Peter Thiel has completed the takeover of Bitcoin, there will not be any such limit. Also the altcoins are and will (even more so) increase the supply.

- Every halving of price means that new fiat entering the market scoops double the amount coins

The only thing supporting your assertion imo is that a longer decline prompts people to sell more, which holds true with some, but their share of total coins is quite small (after this long a decline at least   )

The price will go higher eventually. No one in their right mind could argue otherwise.

The issue is how much higher, and at what rate.

And also the issue is Bitcoin is the fucked up result that enslaves mankind, not the liberation coin, but I know that doesn't matter to you.

But what might eventually cause you to realize you screwed up, is when you realize Bitcoin can't do micro payments but a competitor can.

Bitcoin's utility...

The utility is very very limited and will only be improved because Peter Thiel will turn it into a fiat system.

[rpietila]

Quick TA update (at $0.495):
- 6H candle color/volume: not much volume during Easter holidays, conclusion: none
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.047, slippage to buy: $0.053, conclusion: bids have built up since last time
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.336 log units. The trendline is at $1.073 and rising $0.007 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (note: it is not necessary that 'rock bottom' will change until the parabolic uptrend starts, because the trendline is itself rising)
- Sentiment: n/a
- Prognosis: shortest term unsecure, mid-term reversal seems confirmed, long-term buy zone

[rpietila]

Welcome back!

The price hit the $300 - $350 target I wrote about upthread.

Well put. How much did you buy? I bought BTC200 at $400 so I'm 20k ahead now, 11 days later.

You think it will go to $400 anymore? I don't.

- A revolutionary innovation with a logistic adoption curve

Log-logistic as I showed upthread. Big difference.

You would have to provide a mathematical proof for such. The price fits much better in exponential curve, which is consistent with logistic adoption.

And I am no longer talking hypothetical. I speak from a standpoint of knowing what is going on behind the scenes that will soon hit you.

If you don't share your secrets, I will have to continue with the public info

- Total number of coins is constant

Fantasy. Once Peter Thiel has completed the takeover of Bitcoin, there will not be any such limit. Also the altcoins are and will (even more so) increase the supply.

I would not give 100% probability to such event, however.

- Every halving of price means that new fiat entering the market scoops double the amount coins

The only thing supporting your assertion imo is that a longer decline prompts people to sell more, which holds true with some, but their share of total coins is quite small (after this long a decline at least   )

The price will go higher eventually. No one in their right mind could argue otherwise.

The issue is how much higher, and at what rate.

And also the issue is Bitcoin is the fucked up result that enslaves mankind, not the liberation coin, but I know that doesn't matter to you.

But what might eventually cause you to realize you screwed up, is when you realize Bitcoin can't do micro payments but a competitor can.

I appreciate your opinions. As for micropayments, I am waiting for alternatives, but also don't believe that such system will destroy Bitcoin, similarly as coins have not replaced bank wires.

The utility is very very limited and will only be improved because Peter Thiel will turn it into a fiat system.

The utility is growing constantly - every quarter it has more utility than the previous one. So the userbase is dragged along, and the price. When the price overshoots, it will put the utility projects in the pipeline and the whole economy just marches on. This is what I am observing.

[Hpotsirc]

Quick TA update (at $0.495):
- 6H candle color/volume: not much volume during Easter holidays, conclusion: none
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.047, slippage to buy: $0.053, conclusion: bids have built up since last time
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.336 log units. The trendline is at $1.073 and rising $0.007 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (note: it is not necessary that 'rock bottom' will change until the parabolic uptrend starts, because the trendline is itself rising)
- Sentiment: n/a
- Prognosis: shortest term unsecure, mid-term reversal seems confirmed, long-term buy zone

Thinking in mBTC already i really like that attitude 
Anyway even though i don't have much to contribute to this thread i just wanted to drop by and say that i really appreciate the effort that is being made here. After being in Crypto-Universe for 6 months now I'm still a total noob and this thread is really helpful - so thank you

[rudius]

Quick TA update (at $0.495):
- 6H candle color/volume: not much volume during Easter holidays, conclusion: none
- Bid/ask strengh at market (Bitstamp): slippage to sell 5k: $0.047, slippage to buy: $0.053, conclusion: bids have built up since last time
- Trendline comparison: we are now at -0.336 log units. The trendline is at $1.073 and rising $0.007 per day, conclusion: rock bottom (note: it is not necessary that 'rock bottom' will change until the parabolic uptrend starts, because the trendline is itself rising)
- Sentiment: n/a
- Prognosis: shortest term unsecure, mid-term reversal seems confirmed, long-term buy zone

Thinking in mBTC already i really like that attitude 
Anyway even though i don't have much to contribute to this thread i just wanted to drop by and say that i really appreciate the effort that is being made here. After being in Crypto-Universe for 6 months now I'm still a total noob and this thread is really helpful - so thank you

I want to second that !

A big thank.

[BitchicksHusband]

The longer the market contracts here the more bearish it becomes.

I beg to disagree, based on the fundamentals:
- A revolutionary innovation with a logistic adoption curve
- Total number of coins is constant
- Every halving of price means that new fiat entering the market scoops double the amount coins

The only thing supporting your assertion imo is that a longer decline prompts people to sell more, which holds true with some, but their share of total coins is quite small (after this long a decline at least   )

Bitcoin's utility is not affected by a further decline towards 250, which is the reason that it is not in the cards. Only a vicious circle in utility would cause a spiralling towards zero, but we have ample evidence from 2011-2013 that utility grows constantly, reversing the downtrend when it's time. Price fluctuation just gives better entry and exit points.

It is very much possible that we have to wait 3-6 months for the new fiat though. Then we will have so many people telling afterwards: "I wish I had bought at $500 but it seemed to be going nowhere.. "

This is exactly what Bitchick and I said after it hovered around $70-$140 for 5 months after April 2013.  We ended up buying a lot at $200-$300 before the run up to $1200.  We really wish now that we had taken advantage of the long sideways, but we didn't.  We waited until the rocket ride started and panic bought a little.

With all these newbs on the boards right now, I'm expecting the same thing once it starts going up.  They have all kinds of theories right now, but once it starts rising, they'll all panic buy all the way up.

(This time, I was able to buy some pretty much every $30 from $550 all the way down to $350.  Thanks, Risto.)

[rpietila]

After a long time I updated the Distribution of bitcoins -chart in the respective thread.

Seems that there are only 400 Bitcoin millionaires left in the world after the price decline. How about if any fiat millionaires read this, the tickets to the party are now cheap! 

Also, nearly every Bitcoin holder is not only in the top 1% worldwide, but 0.01% (only 1 in 7,000 people in the world owns any bitcoins)!

Investing $5,000 to get 10 bitcoins, puts you in a comfortable 0.0015%.

[SlipperySlope]

Here is the Huobi 3-day resolution chart, upon which I have drawn a resistance trendline from the peak of the November bubble using the built-in line tool offered by BitcoinWisdom. I admit that manual trendline drawing is subject to bias. I do not believe that this resistance has been broken, and it is only my growing confidence that April 10 was the bottom that I am paying such attention to a breakout.

On Reddit, an OKCoin representative mentioned that USD / BTC currency trading is coming to their exchange - someplace or somehow. Given what I hope is no-fee trading, then finally we may have a high volume, high liquidity, chart in USD prices. I hypothesize that USD volume would be higher than CNY volume if only there was no-fee trading and convenient USD recharge / withdrawal.

[SlipperySlope]

Here is yet another view of the resistance line on the Huobi 3-day resolution chart, in which I took care to anchor the line on the peak at 8000. In this rendition, it does appear that the breakout may be already happening, as was pointed out above by Todorius.

[Biodom]

A simple argument for a minimal BTC price of $40-60K in the next 3-3.5 years follows:
The 30 million fiat millionaires capital is currently ~$88 trillion. If only 1% of this capital will be allocated to BTC (a minimal figure for argument's sake), it would constitute 880bil or ~$42000/BTC (at full 21 mil BTC). Family offices and advisors typically suggest allocating more than this to alternative investments, so I think that at least 1% is quite conservative. If the conversion occurs within the next 3 years, BTC will be at ~15-16 mil total coins mined, hence the price projection might be adjusted to $55000-58000/BTC under this scenario. A very good deal at the current $494  .

[Bitcopia]

A simple argument for a minimal BTC price of $40-60K in the next 3-3.5 years follows:
The 30 million fiat millionaires capital is currently ~$88 trillion. If only 1% of this capital will be allocated to BTC (a minimal figure for argument's sake), it would constitute 880bil or ~$42000/BTC (at full 21 mil BTC). Family offices and advisors typically suggest allocating more than this to alternative investments, so I think that at least 1% is quite conservative. If the conversion occurs within the next 3 years, BTC will be at ~15-16 mil total coins mined, hence the price projection might be adjusted to $55000-58000/BTC under this scenario. A very good deal at the current $494  .

I like your optimism, but I'd be interested to see some citation for your figures. I am under the impression there are about half that many millionaires in the world, and I am intrigued that you were able to come up with their combined net worth. Also, thinking that every single one of them will invest in BTC is rather far fetched. But again, I love the optimism, and there are other scenarios, coupled with your idea that would make such a price feasible.

Regardless, I think we can agree that $494 is a good deal 

[Biodom]

A simple argument for a minimal BTC price of $40-60K in the next 3-3.5 years follows:
The 30 million fiat millionaires capital is currently ~$88 trillion. If only 1% of this capital will be allocated to BTC (a minimal figure for argument's sake), it would constitute 880bil or ~$42000/BTC (at full 21 mil BTC). Family offices and advisors typically suggest allocating more than this to alternative investments, so I think that at least 1% is quite conservative. If the conversion occurs within the next 3 years, BTC will be at ~15-16 mil total coins mined, hence the price projection might be adjusted to $55000-58000/BTC under this scenario. A very good deal at the current $494  .

I like your optimism, but I'd be interested to see some citation for your figures. I am under the impression there are about half that many millionaires in the world, and I am intrigued that you were able to come up with their combined net worth. Also, thinking that every single one of them will invest in BTC is rather far fetched. But again, I love the optimism, and there are other scenarios, coupled with your idea that would make such a price feasible.

Regardless, I think we can agree that $494 is a good deal  

Source for numbers:
Cited in http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/06/CS%20wealth%207.jpg
article: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-02/its-1-world-who-owns-what-223-trillion-global-wealth
Actual source: Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook 2012

I assume that the current wealth is a least 30% higher due to the stock market and RE boom in 2013-2014, but included 2012 numbers.

[Peter R]

A simple argument for a minimal BTC price of $40-60K in the next 3-3.5 years follows:
The 30 million fiat millionaires capital is currently ~$88 trillion. If only 1% of this capital will be allocated to BTC (a minimal figure for argument's sake), it would constitute 880bil or ~$42000/BTC (at full 21 mil BTC). Family offices and advisors typically suggest allocating more than this to alternative investments, so I think that at least 1% is quite conservative. If the conversion occurs within the next 3 years, BTC will be at ~15-16 mil total coins mined, hence the price projection might be adjusted to $55000-58000/BTC under this scenario. A very good deal at the current $494  .

What is also interesting is the question of how $880 billion pushed into bitcoin would affect its market cap. If it came in very quickly, there is probably a momentum-based 10X multiplier, so conceivably $880 billion could push the BTC price to half a million dollars (followed by a huge crash).  I think Risto estimated the equilibrium multiplier (i.e., the multiplier when money from new adopters comes in slowly) at 3.2X.  I'm hoping to study this question in more detail soon.

[SlipperySlope]

The number of transactions excluding popular addresses chart as provided by Blockchain.info has recently been fixed, and now clearly shows a trend reversal that appears to support the notion that April 10 was the bottom of the November 2013  bubble collapse.

Bitcoin prices are presently in a dampened oscillation centered at about the present price $492.

[rpietila]

Huh, I had a bad dream last night. I had finally given a chance to an altcoin and was playing with about $30k stash. I saw it going for 55 (satoshi, I presume), and decided to buy. It jumped to 80, then came back. I thought it is going to the moon and bought several small lots at market. Then it briefly went to 23, but I was too slow to buy. Back at 50. Bought more. Back at 23. Then... whatth heck.. the price is suddenly dropping to 4!! Someone is dumping. Now I want out. But there is no one to buy. At the instant it goes back to 20ish, the dump starts again.

The idea of losing $20k in a matter of minutes is not very nice. This dream will keep me from buying alts 

[rpietila]

We have an ongoing price prediction contest in this thread. I was thinking to make an official version with prizes and such. Here it is, in a comment stage. Drop yours!

[frienemy]

Huh, I had a bad dream last night. I had finally given a chance to an altcoin and was playing with about $30k stash. I saw it going for 55 (satoshi, I presume), and decided to buy. It jumped to 80, then came back. I thought it is going to the moon and bought several small lots at market. Then it briefly went to 23, but I was too slow to buy. Back at 50. Bought more. Back at 23. Then... whatth heck.. the price is suddenly dropping to 4!! Someone is dumping. Now I want out. But there is no one to buy. At the instant it goes back to 20ish, the dump starts again.

The idea of losing $20k in a matter of minutes is not very nice. This dream will keep me from buying alts 

Sure that this was a dream and not watching the Blackcoin-Chart for the last 10 days? Except for the last part it matches almost exactly!