Peeps Place (OP)
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Merit: 1058
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June 30, 2014, 04:59:11 PM |
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Peeps Place, or anyone else interested, do you think that we could use a prediction market to provide a measure of trust for bitcoin sportsbooks? This would provide a means for skeptical bettors to hedge against the risk of fraud.
One problem with this plan is whether anyone would be willing to bet that the book was not going to disappear (or whatever the contract specified). At a minimum, the sportsbook itself should be willing to provide some bids to help build confidence. After all, if they are legit, they would be betting on an outcome that they control. The only excuse they would have to not do this is a desire not to tie up the capital. However, they could roll this over as contracts expired. Any sportsbook lacking the capital required to do this should be extremely worrisome for that reason alone.
An additional issue with this plan is, of course, the reliability of the prediction market itself. There seem to be a few of these that have now emerged as fairly stable. Some, such as Predictious, have also demonstrated a level of transparency that is, so far, unheard of among the sportsbooks themselves. (At least they have an address, a verifiable company name and a legal jurisdiction!) Ironically, some of the legal limitations that are a principal reason for both sportsbook owners and players to prefer anonymity might not apply to a bet on whether the sportsbook would "go Madoff".
The final challenge I see would be structuring the contract in an objective way, allowing verification without requiring the prediction market to launch a huge investigation. This is an issue, but I think that it could be addressed.
A couple of near-term examples would be:
"Nitrogensports / Anonibet to pay out 20 BTC World Cup contest bonus."
Since these books have taken pains to provide transparency to these contests, it should be possible to verify these outcomes. In effect, the bonus amount could be held in escrow by the market. Players participating in these contests could do so with confidence, and could hedge against the fraud risk, if desired.
Has this been suggested, or even tried, before?
You could put this up on BetMoose without any real involvement of us (the exchange). The host (you) will be responsible for the resolution. You get paid commissions for the 'bet' so you could take this up as a community effort. Also, you have flexibility for selecting any conditions and specific (to the minute) outcome times. Feel free to to PM me and we can help set you up with a private/password protected contract if you're interested. I for one would be interested in seeing how many of the 'legit' sportsbooks would be open to entering into such a collateral, and how many would outright oppose it. P.S: We are also 'real' and if this has enough volume behind it we could have a private information-share agreement, so that's not a big concern. the one problem that I see, if I'm understanding this completely, is that there is just another possibility of not being paid by enacting a program spelled out above. |
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Peeps Place (OP)
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Merit: 1058
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June 30, 2014, 06:47:41 PM |
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Cointeller.eu
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June 30, 2014, 07:12:01 PM |
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Some sort of 3rd party prediction market for existing sportsbooks and exchanges would be an incredibly forward-thinking way to build trust. Cointeller would love to participate and heavily seed our side of the market.
This could be a great way to build trust. After all, if you don't trust us then bet against us!
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Baitty
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June 30, 2014, 11:38:10 PM |
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Nitrogensports misleads and has mislead a lot of people. There is a big discussion over at the scam accusastion sub-froum with some people talking about a law suit.
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Currently held as collateral by monbux
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Gogo ppp
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Merit: 1000
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June 30, 2014, 11:56:49 PM |
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Nitrogensports misleads and has mislead a lot of people. There is a big discussion over at the scam accusastion sub-froum with some people talking about a law suit.
Are you referring to "Liquid Nitrogen"? That is a different company. If you are referring to the sportsbook NitrogenSports, please provide a link - I couldn't find a thread at the Scam Accusations about them. |
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BetMoose
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July 01, 2014, 12:29:22 AM |
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Peeps what if we use the BetMoose servers/front-end for transparency (we could modify it a bit too to tag sportsbook deposits) but we create a multi-sig wallet with you also acting as the escrow? We could put it on a private page like trust.betmoose.com or betmoose.com/sportstrust or something.
Or we could re-invest the collateral to BTCjam if the operators want a % yield on storing money but then that adds a layer of risk.
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BetMoose.com - Wager on real world events. Profit from predicting the future. Create and share your own contracts.
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Cointeller.eu
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Activity: 32
Merit: 0
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July 01, 2014, 01:39:42 AM |
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If these markets are posted on a 3rd-party site or with trustworthy escrow Cointeller.eu will join in immediately. It might make more sense to do this outside of any site geared toward casino / sports gambling (such as betting exchanges) if possible.
Would anyone be interested in chatting more about this and exploring options on irc, cryptocat, or some equivalent service?
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fairlay
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July 01, 2014, 08:34:08 PM |
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Peeps Place, or anyone else interested, do you think that we could use a prediction market to provide a measure of trust for bitcoin sportsbooks? This would provide a means for skeptical bettors to hedge against the risk of fraud.
One problem with this plan is whether anyone would be willing to bet that the book was not going to disappear (or whatever the contract specified). At a minimum, the sportsbook itself should be willing to provide some bids to help build confidence. After all, if they are legit, they would be betting on an outcome that they control. The only excuse they would have to not do this is a desire not to tie up the capital. However, they could roll this over as contracts expired. Any sportsbook lacking the capital required to do this should be extremely worrisome for that reason alone.
An additional issue with this plan is, of course, the reliability of the prediction market itself. There seem to be a few of these that have now emerged as fairly stable. Some, such as Predictious, have also demonstrated a level of transparency that is, so far, unheard of among the sportsbooks themselves. (At least they have an address, a verifiable company name and a legal jurisdiction!) Ironically, some of the legal limitations that are a principal reason for both sportsbook owners and players to prefer anonymity might not apply to a bet on whether the sportsbook would "go Madoff".
The final challenge I see would be structuring the contract in an objective way, allowing verification without requiring the prediction market to launch a huge investigation. This is an issue, but I think that it could be addressed.
A couple of near-term examples would be:
"Nitrogensports / Anonibet to pay out 20 BTC World Cup contest bonus."
Since these books have taken pains to provide transparency to these contests, it should be possible to verify these outcomes. In effect, the bonus amount could be held in escrow by the market. Players participating in these contests could do so with confidence, and could hedge against the fraud risk, if desired.
Has this been suggested, or even tried, before?
We obviously like this concept very much. We already are doing something like this for exchanges: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/bad-news/This are predictions wether a certain Bitcoin exchange will not be accessible for some time. You already mentioned some of the problems - how is willing to take the other side and how could it be resolved objectively? What if a user claims that he did not get his funds? |
www.fairlay.com - the Bitcoin prediction market - the future of reliable information
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Peeps Place (OP)
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July 01, 2014, 08:40:40 PM |
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Fairly- Welcome to the thread and feel free to post. The ratings aren't solely determined by the time in business. A rating cap is set for the amount of time in business. An opening rating will be given soon. Hopefully there will be some poster feedback. GL |
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Peeps Place (OP)
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Merit: 1058
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July 01, 2014, 09:45:24 PM |
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Fairly - Are the offers that are up in Bitcoins or another currency? Is your market seeded?
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fairlay
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July 02, 2014, 01:27:43 AM |
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Yes - we are a "Bitcoin only" site. All amounts on our site are in mBTC.
What to you mean with "seeded"? Wether we received a seed funding? Yes we did.
Or do you mean something else?
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www.fairlay.com - the Bitcoin prediction market - the future of reliable information
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Peeps Place (OP)
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Activity: 3604
Merit: 1058
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July 02, 2014, 01:54:44 AM |
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Yes - we are a "Bitcoin only" site. All amounts on our site are in mBTC.
What to you mean with "seeded"? Wether we received a seed funding? Yes we did.
Or do you mean something else?
Most exchanges are player vs. player. Some exchanges are seeded meaning that Fairly is putting up offers, not another player. |
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fairlay
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July 02, 2014, 01:57:21 AM |
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no - it is not seeded - however, we have good contacts to some of our most active user and we incentivize them to do a market maker role.
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www.fairlay.com - the Bitcoin prediction market - the future of reliable information
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Peeps Place (OP)
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July 02, 2014, 02:00:55 AM |
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no - it is not seeded - however, we have good contacts to some of our most active user and we incentivize them to do a market maker role.
thanks |
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Cointeller.eu
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July 02, 2014, 03:09:46 PM |
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@Fairlay, one of the Cointeller.eu sites is interested in contacting you about market-making. What is the best way to put them in touch with you? If any other exchanges see this and offer some kind of market-making incentive structure (and preferably a good API), send a private message with your contact details.
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Peeps Place (OP)
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Activity: 3604
Merit: 1058
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July 03, 2014, 04:14:49 AM
Last edit: July 03, 2014, 05:03:27 PM by Peeps Place |
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Lots of new sites have recently opened. Peeps Place, the gold standard when it comes to rating bitcoin sportsbooks, says this is a dangerous point of time for sports bettors. http://news.rouletters.com/caution-is-advised-as-new-ratings-for-bitcoin-sportsbooks-are-released-0002339.html"A" rated booksAnonibet A (2011) "B"rated booksNitrogenSports B+ (2012) "C" rated booksCasinobitcoin C+ (2013) Cloudbet C+ (2013) SBObitcoin C+ (2013) * Betcoinsports C (2013) DirectBet C (2013) Jetwin C- (2013) BetOWI C- (2014) * "D" rated books Coindraft D+ (2014) Roadbet D+ (2012) BetVIP D+ (2014) Webetcoins D+ (2014) Gobetgo D+ (2014) Bitcoinlivebets D- (2013) "F" rated booksBetCas F Bitcoinsport F Coinbet F Sportbet.im F StakeBTC NRDarkbet Betmoose Fairlay Cointeller Bitbook xbet Pocketrocketscasino.eu/sports Predictious tdsports Maximum grade based upon time in business: A - 2 years B - 1 year C - 3 months D - 1 month F - reserved for books that are slow paying or stiffing players * longer accepting cash deposits |
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Peeps Place (OP)
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Activity: 3604
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July 03, 2014, 05:12:58 AM |
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There may be a connection between stiff sportsbook BetCascade and Bitbm. Does anyone have information on this? I took their rating down until further confirmation.
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Legions36
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Merit: 10
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July 03, 2014, 07:30:28 AM |
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Hey guys what's your views on betting with your btc? Do u like to just always keep your coins always in btc, do u switch over when u can to cash? I ask because I want all I bet with in btc and not all places have total btc which have cheaper lines but in usd and I'm trying find the best way to deal with this. I have many other books that are usd for this to choose from if I wanted my coins out of coins to bet with.
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