What was it that actually happened.
How did the few escape with a massive profit etc, what did they do differently to everybody else?
I might be able to explain what happened. I have waited with this, and only sent it as a PM to InsanityDev, because I did not want to harm the then injured wolf. By now, it could not do much more harm, so why not post it? It might help to better understand ... trading as such. That was the main purpose of the game, anyways.
Me myself, I am one of the smaller bagholders of the one-week-to-early ending of the game. I always intended to hold some WOLF, for the time after the game - but never ever I would have bought so much. It's like ... "ouch!" for me.
But what I had, I never sold, I found the price just ridiculous. And I was always believing, there will be a WOLF coin with some kind of future. It's a sad sight whenever I scroll down my /balances page - but I just don't want to believe it's over. Please make it happen!
I am really delighted, that you people took over, and keep this thread alive. Whatever plans you have, make sure to contact Tristan of Poloniex, too - or ask the InsanityDev to contact Tristan, they seem to have a good connection - so that the coin stays listed ... because you have plans with it.
Anyways, here is what I wrote in early April. It's really not connected to the future of this coin, but to the past.
May it help to understand this game that had never been played before:
Hello Dev!
I am sorry to come up with this analysis only now, when it's too late.
And I am well aware, that I didn't understand this before
- and yes, it's always easier to see the reasons for failure after it has happened.
Still, this should be understood, I think.
I had already mentioned it in my postings:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=471166.msg6094614#msg6094614https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=471166.msg6095621#msg6095621This is how week 1 could have looked:
That would have encouraged the high risk high gain players
to reach out for highest possible prices, and stretch out the order book
-
and give the price a climbing tendency.And the "weak hands", and more "scared" participants who go for low prices would have profited, but gained much less.
[ ... actually that same strategy is the only viable strategy I can think of that could really raise the price above 0.001 now. The gaming phase ending with creating a new pot with the promise of ONE SWEEP. (The current orderbook until 0.002 is 79 BTC.) One last sweep, emptying the SELL book until high high high. Then destroy all remaining coins, and immediately publish the new wallet, and a detailed plan for the future. The main question is if the current loss of trust still allows for any more "gaming" now. ]
Instead this was the signal you set - already in week one:
... which then created all subsequent behaviour of the wolfpack.
Bottomline is:
A player profits maximally if he can play two or three times per Sunday.
So the most important message for a player to realize is:
Go low for the first bet - that guarantees that you will be playing twice.
... sooooo by week 5, this had happened:
As I said, I also didn't understand this perspective until the game is over, otherwise I would have posted it earlier.
It can actually be translated into the following ugly truth:
"Every Sunday, 100 bitcoins were taken in from investors and from players,
and then distributed among the players."Originally, the game was not only a clever scheme to make a few players rich, it was intended to establish a stable and high and even rising price for a new coin, right? Remember your own drawing, with the the bumps and the slowly rising price.
Right now, I cannot see how all those the gaming weeks really helped with stabilizing a price for the future of this coin. The BUY book is ~4 BTC, that's all, and half of those 4 BTC are below half of the price that everyone paid for it.
What's next?
Who would be "obliged" to help WOLF now is those who profited so much from it in the past weeks. However, I don't see how you can persuade those player-type people who profited so immensely in the past weeks ... to now support a slowly raising price game. Can you? They are short-term oriented selfish players, that's how they got so many BTC out of the insanitygame - so why would this type of people support your slow plan now? They will find excuses, and run away.
And any strategy you try to implement now, will be possibly to be "gamed", i.e. people will profit from it short-term, again. You allow players to earn even more. And if they can't, they run away.
There are 25 bitcoins lacking now to buy up the 26000 WOLF in the orderbook up to 0.001. Did you get any commitment from the players in the IRC conference to invest 25 BTC now?
Any attractive second game from here on would have to be implemented above 0.001, so if you get 25 BTC from somewhere (preferably from your "players"), you can solve it.
But any further game is problematic if it involves the remaining unsold -already dead- WOLF coins; if you try to sell dead coins, it will lower the price of the existing ones even more, because you dilute the total perceived value of all WOLF coins ("Buy Orders Total: 3.98838659 BTC") by even more coins.
And the remaining reservoir
is dead because no one is buying from the reservoir anymore. Simple to see.
[...taken out, irrelevant now ...]
I am sitting on too many unsold WOLF.
I have just done my final balance of 7 weeks.
Bottomline is, I am one of those with "free wolf" now.
I am slightly in the plus, so even if WOLF crashes completely, I am left with a micro profit. Too little profit for all the work involved, but at least I am not in minus.
However, I have a big interest that there is a future for this coin, because I am still holding on to coins - which seem to be worth less and less. Right now, it would make a lot of sense for me to destroy the BUY book even more, by selling my coins.
The next phase cannot be gaming anymore, that looks like draining the last life out of it it.
I am very reluctant to post this publicly, because I don't want to create even more panic sales. That's why I share this with you only right now.
Anyways, and very important, I don't want to come across ungrateful:
Thank you very very much for all the learning that could take place
in this insane environment ;-)
Have a nice day!
;-)
If anyone ever creates a similiar game on the basis of my analysis of this experiment (and I think the game could really work, if it were played in my way described above), please consider sending me a few coins -->
www.tiny.cc/drakointip <--- so please bookmark my donation post now.
As you can see, I should have listened to my darker side,
and just go and sell my remaining WOLF. Stupid me didn't.
I am too good for this world ... at least for bitcointalk world.
Because of ... so many reasons, and really not only my coins,
I would love if WOLF rises from the ashes of this amazing experiment.
(If you ever plan to exchange for another coin, please PM me early so I don't miss that!)
It is very rare,
it has followers,
it is listed at an exchange,
it seemingly has a well-working open source code;
the miner payout is balanced with the total coin amount;
and and and.
WOLF had a bright childhood, and a troubled puberty -
and it might become a really interesting adult WOLF.
Please make it happen! I drop by every now and then, and have a look around :-)
My main support for now is that I won't sell until the price has recovered reasonably well.
WOLF was, is and will be one of my really "long term investments".
