Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +100,003 units

[Trofo]

Thanks for jinxing me in the pools hahaha but yeah....
But you're absolutely right. City will start to feel the pressure, and the bookies hopefully make that worth betting against them every game haha.

How else will I ever have the chance to catch up with you since you are infallible with your predictions every week. See what I did there

Pools are for fun with friends, important thing is too grow our bank on City misery Too bad they are quite good at what they do. Just saw an unbelievable tweet, can't find it now to link it. It went something like this.

Someone famous said to Pep, you can't win in PL without working on tackles. Pep finishes the season as champion of course and then goes the stats. City is first in the league for everything: points, goals scored, goals conceded, passes, assists...everything you can think off and then comes tackles and they are 20th. Love him or hate him but Pep is a special guy.

[buwaytress]

Trofo haha, I saw what you did for sure! Oh Pep is special, that's for sure. I'm still always going for Klopp over him but I've always said that guys like Pep and Klopp are tailor-made for certain clubs and switching them would be disastrous I bet. Klopp believes Pep is the best, and Pep has almost said the same, and of course they would say that, but more importantly, I also read something that Biesela said about them and it went something like:

- Klopp has a clear tactic that involves him infusing his enthusiasm and identity into a club, that makes him and his teams exciting.
- Pep is completely unreadable and cannot be replicated, that makes him an enigma.

Which brings me to today's pick, Fulham riding high, and odds are completely against them, but good for me. West Ham are now at HT down to... Kiddermeinster, and Boro KO'd United. FA Cup magic, right?

Odds swinging from 15-18 quite fast close to the game, I picked a good swing.

100 units at Sportsbet on Fulham to WIN vs Man City @18.60. Other odds: 16.00
Bet ID: 61fd57fca87724338593d49a

Running advantage after 104 bets: +11573 (+260)
All-time cumulative: +79,181
Running units after 103 bets (13W|90L): +2073 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Fulham actually took the lead, nice assist from old boy Harry Wilson but City quickly restored parity and then it was one-way traffic from then on. Quite a few good picks today, but I'm going to go for these two. One a HT Egypt lead (I do want Senegal to win but I can always do a small hedge can't I?). And then a Serie A acca.

100 units at Sportsbet on Bologna, Sassuolo and Napoli to WIN @7.40. Other odds: 6.95
Bet ID: 61ffa3a8a87724590d960f60
100 units at Fairlay on Egypt to lead at HT @5.92. Other odds: 5.10

Units advantage: 55+82 = 137

Running advantage after 106 bets: +11710 (+137)
All-time cumulative: +79,318
Running units after 104 bets (13W|91L): +1873 (-200)

[buwaytress]

Yeah, well, two bad bets in the end, up there. But we continue to have faith in City dropping points and to boost my dangerously low profit this season haha.

100 units at Fairlay on Brentford to WIN vs Man City @25.38. Other odds: 22.50
Units advantage: 282

Also, accidentally deducted 200 instead of 100 units in last post, so I make up for the 2 bets in this total.

Running advantage after 107 bets: +11992 (+282)
All-time cumulative: +79,600
Running units after 106 bets (13W|93L): +1773 (-100)

[Trofo]

Yeah, well, two bad bets in the end, up there. But we continue to have faith in City dropping points and to boost my dangerously low profit this season haha.

City loosing at home against Brentford? Long odds for sure but that is the beauty of the long odds, they don't have to come very often for profits to come by.

That being said, I am not giving any chances to Brentford tonight and I expect City to destroy them with minimal effort. Easy 2:0 or 3:0 without spending too much energy. I am looking forward to see if Eriksen gets couple of minutes though.

[buwaytress]

Yeah, well, two bad bets in the end, up there. But we continue to have faith in City dropping points and to boost my dangerously low profit this season haha.

City loosing at home against Brentford? Long odds for sure but that is the beauty of the long odds, they don't have to come very often for profits to come by.

That being said, I am not giving any chances to Brentford tonight and I expect City to destroy them with minimal effort. Easy 2:0 or 3:0 without spending too much energy. I am looking forward to see if Eriksen gets couple of minutes though.

Didn't work out, and Eriksen still waits for his reemergence, like you, I'm keen to see him play again I thought that was an absolute coup, and I'm so happy Brentford took the chance on him.

City didn't get their win as easily, though... but they won't care.

We go again tonight, why not? Norwich seem to have forgotten how to lose, and 6 goals in the last 3 games who knows?

I see also for once, I'm not the only one betting at Fairlay, 2 other guys backing them!

100 units at Fairlay on Norwich to WIN vs City @19.19. Other odds: 18.10.
Units advantage: 109

Running advantage after 108 bets: +11301 (+109)
All-time cumulative: +79,709
Running units after 107 bets (13W|94L): +1673 (-100)

[buwaytress]

No Norwich joy and they're making it tough for Liverpool now too. Any chance we should get joy from 2 upsets tonight? I say sure, why not?

2 games, direct upsets, one against Real and another against City.

100 units at Fairlay on Deportivo Alaves to WIN vs Real Madrid @15.55. Other odds: 13.80
100 units at Sportsbet on Spurs to WIN vs City @12.55. Other odds: 11.10
Bet ID: 620a54262c789100361a06b4

Units advantage: 175+ 145 = 320

Running advantage after 110 bets: +11621 (+320)
All-time cumulative: +80,029
Running units after 108 bets (13W|95L): +1573 (-100)

[KTChampions]

No Norwich joy and they're making it tough for Liverpool now too. Any chance we should get joy from 2 upsets tonight? I say sure, why not?

2 games, direct upsets, one against Real and another against City.

100 units at Fairlay on Deportivo Alaves to WIN vs Real Madrid @15.55. Other odds: 13.80
100 units at Sportsbet on Spurs to WIN vs City @12.55. Other odds: 11.10
Bet ID: 620a54262c789100361a06b4

Units advantage: 175+ 145 = 320

Running advantage after 110 bets: +11621 (+320)
All-time cumulative: +80,029
Running units after 108 bets (13W|95L): +1573 (-100)

Congratulations on another win! As soon as I saw the result of the match City - Tottenham, I immediately decided to check your thread because I remembered your motto "always bet against City if the odds are above 10" 
Today is an amazing tour in the EPL - the result of the matches changes radically in the last minutes, probably the lovers of live betting are satisfied.

[buwaytress]

Congratulations on another win! As soon as I saw the result of the match City - Tottenham, I immediately decided to check your thread because I remembered your motto "always bet against City if the odds are above 10" 
Today is an amazing tour in the EPL - the result of the matches changes radically in the last minutes, probably the lovers of live betting are satisfied.

Thank you, thank you. If I only make the impact on one person, who learns that it's profitable to bet against City every time it's 10/1 or more, than I will be happy.

It was an amazing tour yesterday indeed. Can't remember the last time I was so happy another team scored when Kane put that injury time goal haha.

In the spirit of this, I have another upset bet today which is... probably idiotic, but who knows, bad things come in 3s for Bayern? And to throw in something different, a Leeds home win over United, superboost makes it so tasty!.

100 units at Sportsbet on Leeds and BVB to WIN @8.83. Other odds: 8.45. Units advantage: 38
100 units at Fairlay on Gruether Furth to WIN vs Bayern @36. Other odds: 28.50. Units advantage: 750

Running advantage after 112 bets: +12409 (+788)
All-time cumulative: +80,817
Running units after 110 bets (14W|96L): +2628 (+1055)

[buwaytress]

Oops on both above. Furth did take the lead though, so for many minutes I enjoyed the feeling of being ahead, until Lewandowski needed all of 30 seconds after the restart to equalise. Leeds also had a strong fightback... alas, it was not to be.

Chelski was miserable, and I know Lukaku's probably going to again get his team fighting outside of EPL, but why not back Lille at such strong Superboost odds?

100 units at Sportsbet on Lille to WIN vs Chelsea @13.66. Other odds: 12.80
Units advantage: 86

Running advantage after 113 bets: +12497 (+86)
All-time cumulative: +80,903
Running units after 112 bets (14W|98L): +2428 (-200)

[buwaytress]

I know I said always bet against City if it's over 10/1 odds, but well, there are also times we should bet against United. I hate both Manchester teams so it's always a joy to throw money away at them (sobs). But United I dare say are a different proposition -- they're creaky and are liable to let in a goal first, which brings me to the awesome Stake special where if Watford score first OR any time in the first 15 minutes, you win your ML bet.

So, while you can get almost 10/1 at Sportsbet on an outright, I believe Stakes's offer is more valuable at a lower payout.

100 units at Stake on Watford to WIN, score first, or score by 15' @7.80. No odds comparison, but Sportsbet has 9.86 on Watford win.
Bet ID: betId=89c6e9b6-c68a-450b-aa91-e3a8fd2c7eeb

Then of course, Citeh, the obligatory bet.
100 units at Fairlay on Everton to WIN vs City @12.52. Other odds: 10.40

Units advantage: 212

Running advantage after 115 bets: +12709 (+212)
All-time cumulative: +81,115
Running units after 113 bets (14W|99L): +2328 (-100)

[Trofo]

I know I said always bet against City if it's over 10/1 odds, but well, there are also times we should bet against United. I hate both Manchester teams so it's always a joy to throw money away at them (sobs). But United I dare say are a different proposition -- they're creaky and are liable to let in a goal first, which brings me to the awesome Stake special where if Watford score first OR any time in the first 15 minutes, you win your ML bet.

So, while you can get almost 10/1 at Sportsbet on an outright, I believe Stakes's offer is more valuable at a lower payout.

100 units at Stake on Watford to WIN, score first, or score by 15' @7.80. No odds comparison, but Sportsbet has 9.86 on Watford win.
Bet ID: betId=89c6e9b6-c68a-450b-aa91-e3a8fd2c7eeb

That Stake special is really great value, especially against leaky defense like United's.

If I had to choose my surprise today, i would go against City, seems to me like better option and then we will have a real battle for PL title.

I don't know if you sow, but I called you out in a tennis thread with nice bet for you the other day. Vesely to win 2:0 against Djokovic. There were odds over 20, I got 26 with super boost.

[buwaytress]

Ouf yeah, Watford ended up drawing but United play like crap if Fernandes is off form huh.

I don't know if you sow, but I called you out in a tennis thread with nice bet for you the other day. Vesely to win 2:0 against Djokovic. There were odds over 20, I got 26 with super boost.

No way, I didn't see THAT! I do get notifications but I probably should trim it down as I actually get around 20 every time I check, so it's easy to miss. 26/1, that is worthy of a post here and I'd have for sure followed -- unlike today following you only halfway (your 5.5 handicap was exactly what was needed but I did less).

I said before a couple of times, you're the only tennis guys I'd follow on this forum (and certain European football!). Well done man.

[buwaytress]

Not able to retrieve slips as on mobile right now but my balance is low and I want Liverpool to win badly, and I am sure many fringe players like Kelleher also want some silverware. Trophies are good.

So a big bet is absolutely required at 3/1 odds. Can even squeeze out more if you use price boosts. I have to accept lower odds too as no access ha.

So 500 units at Fairlay on Liverpool to WIN vs Chelsea @3.01. Other odds 3.15

Units advantage: -70

Will resume and add calculations later.

[buwaytress]

That turned out to be a happy night, the EFL cup final, we lost the bet (boo on VAR) but the draw was fair, so few complaints there, and we won the penalty lottery, so things looking up.

Bet against City has been tight losses after Spurs -- Everton honestly gave them a scare, and United has a good record, as we've seen before in this thread too.

200 units at Fairlay on United to WIN vs City @9.78. Other odds: 8.20
Units advantage: 158

Running advantage after 116 bets: +12709 (+212)
All-time cumulative: +81,115
Running units after 115 bets (14W|101L): +1728 (-500)

[KTChampions]

Not able to retrieve slips as on mobile right now but my balance is low and I want Liverpool to win badly, and I am sure many fringe players like Kelleher also want some silverware. Trophies are good.

So a big bet is absolutely required at 3/1 odds. Can even squeeze out more if you use price boosts. I have to accept lower odds too as no access ha.

So 500 units at Fairlay on Liverpool to WIN vs Chelsea @3.01. Other odds 3.15

Units advantage: -70

Will resume and add calculations later.

I see you are gradually raising the bets on some key events. On the one hand, winning will significantly increase the balance, but on the other hand, the risk also increases. Are you sure it's justified? Given that you are betting at ~10 odds, you have about 17 bets left and it is very likely to lose them, as streaks of 20 losses are common at odds of 10.

[Trofo]

That turned out to be a happy night, the EFL cup final, we lost the bet (boo on VAR) but the draw was fair, so few complaints there, and we won the penalty lottery, so things looking up.

Bet against City has been tight losses after Spurs -- Everton honestly gave them a scare, and United has a good record, as we've seen before in this thread too.

200 units at Fairlay on United to WIN vs City @9.78.

That LFC disallowed goal hit me hard as well. I had their win on at least 2 otherwise winning tickets. What is worse I don't think there was enough to disallow it.

Good luck with your customary bet against City, this time I feel like you might actually win it. As I said in other thread United likes letting the other team have the ball and then counter attacking. Worse possible match up for City. Have nothing against City but they are usually so good and clean that I sort of like seeing them in problems here and there

[buwaytress]

KTChampions: you are absolutely right to question the justification of me raising bet amounts. I believe I started doing it last season but it's become a more common theme now that I've got less time on this thread. It's not at all necessary, but perhaps "justified" in great value but short odds (relative to the longshot odds I prefer) MLs. And thanks for point it out. 10/1 bets absolutely do not need me raising my bets -- I think that was the first time I'd ever done it, I was just so confident in United... and they proved me so wrong not even Sancho scoring was ever going to turn the tide around.

Trofo: I saw your reply elsewhere and I just hoped you would be wrong about Inter finding scoring boots but BTTS actually is real value. As you say, they have no choice but to score and we all know what happens when you try to attack a team like Liverpool, they love it too. That said, I'm also counting on guys like you who think Salzburg should score again. It's not in their DNA to defend and pray for penalty lottery.

And am I the only one imagining it that Bayern and Lewie are somehow beginning to show signs that they could stumble and sputter? Too much of a lead in Bundesliga? They did get a huge Furth win but had to score everything in 2nd half, then escaped with a narrow win and then drew last game with an own goal. Can't keep pushing their luck without Goreztka? No offence to you, Jamal Musiala.

Thus we arrive at today's pick:

100 units at Fairlay on Salzburg to WIN vs Bayern Munich @14.73. Other odds: 13.20
Units advantage: 153

Running advantage after 117 bets: +12862 (+153)
All-time cumulative: +81,268
Running units after 116 bets (14W|102L): +1528 (-200)

[Trofo]

And am I the only one imagining it that Bayern and Lewie are somehow beginning to show signs that they could stumble and sputter? Too much of a lead in Bundesliga? They did get a huge Furth win but had to score everything in 2nd half, then escaped with a narrow win and then drew last game with an own goal. Can't keep pushing their luck without Goreztka? No offence to you, Jamal Musiala.

You are not imagining it, Bayern always played for a goal more but in last few weeks they are a bit more prone to dropping the points. Sometimes their attack only scores one goal like in first CL leg or sometimes they let in 3 goals and even their attack is not able to outscore the opponent.

They are showing some vulnerabilities but it is almost always against week opposition so I think it is motivation problem. I fell like if they played against Real tonight they would be much better. Perfect team to target with your way of betting. Almost the bigger the odds on opponent more likely for them to spill the points

Edit: see what happens when you say something against Lewa? He scores 3 goals in first 20 minutes. Bastard 

[buwaytress]

^Yeah, I can't even hate the guy, but if only I could get my anti-magic to work like this all the time, say shit about Lewie, get a hattrick, say shit about Ronaldo, get a hattrick.

So, Palace odds have been edging higher ever since Saturday, when it opened for 9/1 and now 11/1, with Super Boost, it's irresistible for me. It's not the formation I feel they can win with and City's game against United if they even play 70% of that, it's all over. But still, Palace at home?

100 units at Sportsbet on Palace to WIN vs City @12.51. Other odds: 11.00
Units advantage: 151

Running advantage after 118 bets: +13013 (+151)
All-time cumulative: +81,419
Running units after 117 bets (14W|103L): +1428 (-100)