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[copumpkin]

a known pirate wallet

wat.

Your deposit address with pirate is a known pirate address, and most likely the next one after that would be a pirate controlled consolidation address.

Most likely indeed. Nobody would ever think of using multiple wallets for an operation like this.

[N12]

Goat is the guy who posted a bounty to find child porn association with gmaxwell. He is the guy who I suspect to have funneled (maybe continuing to do so?) his non-pirate passthrough investor money into BTCS&T, he is the guy who had problems with his shadiness with MtGox, had his supposed arbitrage bot and his GPU venture go poof, and he is a guy who wanted to create an open ponzi scheme asset on GLBSE!

Now, after all this ad hominem, I would bet against pretty much everything this person I consider a crook says.

If a ponzi as large as this were to collapse (with 6 digit BTC sum), you can be sure that the Bitcoin price will go to shit because of the loss of faith, negative media, loss of trust in BTC community, BTC spectacularly continuing to be an overall negative sum game (distributing money to those who drain wealth, namely hackers and scammers), how widely distributed and how many people are exposed to this etc., since it would probably cause further defaults.

Same thing that happened throughout fall when we had MyBitcoin (which was huge as well) and all the follow-ups.

[waltmarkers]

a known pirate wallet

wat.

Your deposit address with pirate is a known pirate address, and most likely the next one after that would be a pirate controlled consolidation address.

Most likely indeed. Nobody would ever think of using multiple wallets for an operation like this.

He can use as many wallets as he wants. The theory works the same way. Investor to pirate via dedicated deposit. Dedicated deposit through internal addresses that may or may not include a mixing step with GPUmax.

To be really sure, look at transactions before GPUMax. You can either prove he's moving the coins enough for my theory to be possible, or you can't. To be clear, you can only prove that my theory is possible with this. If they aren't moved enough, that doesn't mean it's a scam, just my theory can't be proven.

[N12]

However the people who thought they had coins in the account would need to replace this and thus move the price up.

Very few would do this or even have the means to do so, most are gamblers in the first place. Do you think the people affected by Madoff just went ahead and repurchased all their USD?

[Sukrim]

I already suggested blockchain analysis, but never even got a single deposit address of pirate (via PM or publicly), so I put that on hold as long as my exposure to him is low enough.

Why should I invest a lot of time and effort only to save someone's ass who invested thousands more BTC with him? Maybe I'll still do the investigation but charge a hefty fee (people here seem to be comfortable with putting up 500 BTC just to be allowed to deposit more money) for the results...

[hazek]

Chilling new deposits alone should bring the thing down, that's why it's essential we do not leave this thread here alone. I think we're pretty close to the limit.

Based on what?

Rates dropping, limits increasing, ect ect

But a Ponzi has no limits.

A smart one does to avoid the whale problem in order to last longer and get bigger..

[hazek]

Pirate currently has enough bitcoins to clear the entire MtGox orderbook that is currently visible.

Can you define what you mean by the visible orderbook?

gox has a dark order book so the market is not scared when large trades happen. or this is the way it used to be done.

It doesn't ever since the hack last year AFAIK

[Tomatocage]

It doesn't do that anymore, and it'd take some serious effort (more coins than will ever exist) to clear the visible one:

[13:20:52] <gribble> There are currently 26449801 bitcoins demanded at or over 0.0 USD, worth 1328905.42752 USD in total.

How is that even possible?  That's higher than the 21M soft-cap.

[Tomatocage]

A smart one does to avoid the whale problem in order to last longer and get bigger..

Well.. if that means there's still reliable payouts forthcoming, then a lot of people are going to stay in it.

[bpd]

It doesn't do that anymore, and it'd take some serious effort (more coins than will ever exist) to clear the visible one:

[13:20:52] <gribble> There are currently 26449801 bitcoins demanded at or over 0.0 USD, worth 1328905.42752 USD in total.

How is that even possible?  That's higher than the 21M soft-cap.

Someone with $1000 on MtGox can put an order for 100,000 BTC @ $0.01. Doesn't mean that will ever be able to execute. The better estimate would be to take the total USD amount of $1.32M, and see that it corresponds to about 200k BTC at current market price of $6.5.

[Tomatocage]

It doesn't do that anymore, and it'd take some serious effort (more coins than will ever exist) to clear the visible one:

[13:20:52] <gribble> There are currently 26449801 bitcoins demanded at or over 0.0 USD, worth 1328905.42752 USD in total.

How is that even possible?  That's higher than the 21M soft-cap.

Someone with $1000 on MtGox can put an order for 100,000 BTC @ $0.01. Doesn't mean that will ever be able to execute. The better estimate would be to take the total USD amount of $1.32M, and see that it corresponds to about 200k BTC at current market price of $6.5.

Oh ok, that makes sense then.  Thanks!

[Maged]

perhaps he meant enough coins to move off where the mtgoxlive ticker shows. below $5.25 right now

Yeah, that's what I meant. I didn't realize that MtGox apparently exposes the whole orderbook, now, instead of just the orders close to the trading range.

[mrb]

How is that even possible?  That's higher than the 21M soft-cap.

Someone with $1000 on MtGox can put an order for 100,000 BTC @ $0.01. Doesn't mean that will ever be able to execute.

You can even put buy order for 21M coins at $0.00001 with merely $210.
I know because I have done it

[Mageant]

Do sub-account holders get their own login on btcst.com to view their balance and transactions?

[Vandroiy]

Brunic:

No matter how you tune the numbers, Pirateat40 would quickly be able to trade with more and more of his own funds, kicking out investors and claiming the profits for himself. As soon as he has over 10k coins himself, it takes him 34 weeks to obtain one million BTC without the help of investors.

Forget it. Any theory without money laundering is a joke, and for that he lacks a supply path for fresh coins: too much re-investment.

In fact, just forget it period. There exists no explanation why anyone in the right mind would "share" returns like that over such a long time.

[hazek]

Brunic:

No matter how you tune the numbers, Pirateat40 would quickly be able to trade with more and more of his own funds, kicking out investors and claiming the profits for himself. As soon as he has over 10k coins himself, it takes him 34 weeks to obtain one million BTC without the help of investors.

Forget it. Any theory without money laundering is a joke, and for that he lacks a supply path for fresh coins: too much re-investment.

In fact, just forget it period. There exists no explanation why anyone in the right mind would "share" returns like that over such a long time.

Boom! I'd like to see ponzi "investor" apologist try and defend against this one.. Why does pirate still share his profits? Charity? 

[piotr_n]

Pirate currently has enough bitcoins to clear the entire MtGox orderbook that is currently visible.

Can you define what you mean by the visible orderbook?

gox has a dark order book so the market is not scared when large trades happen. or this is the way it used to be done.

AFAIK, they used to have it, but this was abandoned long time ago.

[finkleshnorts]

What would be a fair way to go short/long on BTCST? The betsofbitco.in ones don't make a lot of sense. Those who are long have funds in BTCST, and won't withdraw them before the bet deadline .

[koin]

If pirate is really running a ponzi right now, he's a pretty stupid dude. He would be missing probably on the biggest business opportunity in the Bitcoin (short)lifetime.

bernard madoff was not a stupid dude.  after holding the position of chairman of nasdaq stock market, he had passed up big opportunities and instead ran a ponzi.

the psychology of fraud explains these things: http://www.npr.org/2012/05/01/151764534

[piotr_n]

What would be a fair way to go short/long on BTCST? The betsofbitco.in ones don't make a lot of sense. Those who are long have funds in BTCST, and won't withdraw them before the bet deadline .

Just tease Pirate himself - make him to bet in... he is the only person who has some interest to bet against you at betsofbitco.in
I mean: he knows if he can win and if he does, he also wins a satisfaction as a bonus...
All the other people who'd vote to trust him, prefer to deposit the bet directly in BS&T