Bitcoin Savings and Trust | Home | Closed

[finkleshnorts]

just don't get yourself killed - and everything will be fine

In the event I did die, my lenders will be handsomely rewarded via the dead man's switch.

dead man's chest.

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[OgNasty]

just don't get yourself killed - and everything will be fine

In the event I did die, my lenders will be handsomely rewarded via the dead man's switch.

dead man's chest.

The more we gave them away,
the more we came to realize,
the drink would not satisfy,
food turned to ash in our mouths,
and all the pleasurable company in the world could not slake our lust.

[Epoch]

Scribed.

[GeoRW]

just don't get yourself killed - and everything will be fine

In the event I did die, my lenders will be handsomely rewarded via the dead man's switch.

dead man's chest.

If the switch will not work then the huge pirate treasure chest will be lost forever in the dark corners of bitcoin block chain

[Vandroiy]

> Sees a certain avatar in ponzi thread
> Lost a bit more faith in humanity
> feelsbadman.jpg

Guys. If someone had a scheme to make more than 7% profit per week... do I really have to finish that sentence? Does any of you know what "exponential" means?

I'll say it anyway. So if pirate whatever, kudos at the name, would he just use his own scheme with 10k BTC for two years, he would have more Bitcoins that currently exist afterward, excluding all "current profits" above 7% which he is supposedly already making (sorry about the earlier error). Yes, this reads "Who is Satoshi now, bitches?"

Anyway, before I'm getting shouted at... I'm not here to disturb operations. Have fun, or whatever. Do me a favor and remember to change avatar when you feel like a fool after the game ended. Might help make me feel better.

[silverbox]

It seems unlikely Pirate keeps his profits in BTC,  He probably keeps gold bars in his treasure chest!!  I would matey

[ShadowAlexey]

Omg once again... Do you really think it is enough to have only 10kBTC to start this and you dont need real money at all? Plus I like the point that it is better to dont get your funds used if u can use others and still get profit. I personally would  prefer keeping cash rather than btc.

[Gladamas]

> Sees a certain avatar in ponzi thread
> Lost a bit more faith in humanity
> feelsbadman.jpg

Guys. If someone had a scheme to make more than 7% profit per week... do I really have to finish that sentence? Does any of you know what "exponential" means?

I'll say it anyway. So if pirate whatever, kudos at the name, had just used his own scheme with 10k BTC since a year ago, he would have 3.37M BTC now, excluding all "current profits" above 7% which he is supposedly already making. Yes, this reads "Who is Satoshi now, bitches?"

Anyway, before I'm getting shouted at... I'm not here to disturb operations. Have fun, or whatever. Do me a favor and remember to change avatar when you feel like a fool after the game ended. Might help make me feel better.

Please continue the FUD somewhere else, there are already numerous threads on this.

[FredericBastiat]

> Sees a certain avatar in ponzi thread
> Lost a bit more faith in humanity
> feelsbadman.jpg

Guys. If someone had a scheme to make more than 7% profit per week... do I really have to finish that sentence? Does any of you know what "exponential" means?

I'll say it anyway. So if pirate whatever, kudos at the name, had just used his own scheme with 10k BTC since a year ago, he would have 3.37M BTC now, excluding all "current profits" above 7% which he is supposedly already making. Yes, this reads "Who is Satoshi now, bitches?"

Anyway, before I'm getting shouted at... I'm not here to disturb operations. Have fun, or whatever. Do me a favor and remember to change avatar when you feel like a fool after the game ended. Might help make me feel better.

Your math is off. Starting with 10K BTC and compounding every week that would give you .337M BTC. You're off by an order of magnitude.

[Vandroiy]

Your math is off. Starting with 10K BTC and compounding every week that would give you .337M BTC. You're off by an order of magnitude.

Sorry, you are of course correct. But it is an exponential, so let's just change it to 2 years. Running two years from 10k BTC, he would end up with more BTC than currently exist!

The yield is something like 3300% annually. Yes, my earlier number was wrong. But even if it was wrong by two orders of magnitude, this would still be ridiculous.

What I'm trying to say is: the numbers are so far away from reality, it doesn't even matter. One BTC in four years would yield about 1,290,000 BTC. AND NO, I DID NOT MESS UP THE MATH THIS TIME.

[ShadowAlexey]

Come on, how can u speak about 4 years, when btc is roughly 3 years old.
No one tells you that this would last for ever. You are pointing to a fact that this cannot go for long,I agree with you, but thats it.Thats why people are taking part in it.

[FredericBastiat]

Your math is off. Starting with 10K BTC and compounding every week that would give you .337M BTC. You're off by an order of magnitude.

Sorry, you are of course correct. But it is an exponential, so let's just change it to 2 years. Running two years from 10k BTC, he would end up with more BTC than currently exist!

The yield is something like 3300% annually. Yes, my earlier number was wrong. But even if it was wrong by two orders of magnitude, this would still be ridiculous.

What I'm trying to say is: the numbers are so far away from reality, it doesn't even matter. One BTC in four years would yield about 1,290,000 BTC. AND NO, I DID NOT MESS UP THE MATH THIS TIME.

Yes I've considered this "doomsday" scenario over and over in my head. Something has to eventually give. It could go down a number of ways. 1) The "Pirate" adjusts interest rates until it's sustainable for a longer period of time, 2) BTC prices are driven upwards due to hoarding or directing investment into BTCST, which would induce some individuals to withdraw their coins (converting to fiat) reducing the overall capital vested, 3) It blows up due to the unsustainable size of the bitcoin economy, and all the capital is returned (The exchange price may sag a bit in this situation somewhat, but probably recover). Or 4) it's an amazing ponzi scheme and were all about to take a hit.

I'm sure I've missed a few possibilities, but they're probably nominally related subject fodder. Either way, it's going to be an interesting ride.

[Vandroiy]

@FredericBastiat: The game ends abruptly at the point of maximum expected money deposits -- or, equivalently, as soon as the money flux goes negative. I would expect that behavior because it gives maximum profit. So, yes, this is point number 4.

Come on, how can u speak about 4 years, when btc is roughly 3 years old.
No one tells you that this would last for ever. You are pointing to a fact that this cannot go for long,I agree with you, but thats it.Thats why people are taking part in it.

In reality, there are multiple users with five- or even six-digit BTC sums who would go great lengths to get 1% weekly return, not 7%. If the pirate wanted money, he'd go to them and offer security, and he'd be earning the entire difference of 6% in addition. The throughput would be gigantic even within one year. Too gigantic to sound realistic.

Nothing he does makes any sense from his perspective. He has a magical unbelievable money machine, but does... a mining site? He does a psychological trick to make it a PRIVILEGE for someone to be able to lend him money. It's textbook fraud. All the visible patterns seem to target psychology, but I don't see anything that makes sense economically.

Be that as it may, I've said my part. I wouldn't complain if this were MMM-2011, where the people who orchestrated it openly admitted what they were doing. This one is deceptive, and I hate deception. It, in my opinion, is enough reason to "misbehave" and temporarily disturb a thread.

[BurtW]

Just like clockwork.  Another person comes in here and "... exponential ... compounding ... unsustainable ... PONZI! PONZI! PONZI! .. he will soon have enough BTC to pay off the national debt of the United States ... blah ... blah ... blah"

It does not bother me they do it on such a regular basis, what bothers me is that every single one of them does not bother to read the thread and find out that:  No, they are not the first one to come in here and warn everyone and give their opinions etc., and no, not a single person invested in this program thinks it will last forever - it can't, we know that.  And NO, you are not the only one in the Bitcon forums that can do simple math (and get it wrong).

[notme]

@FredericBastiat: The game ends abruptly at the point of maximum expected money deposits -- or, equivalently, as soon as the money flux goes negative. I would expect that behavior because it gives maximum profit. So, yes, this is point number 4.

Come on, how can u speak about 4 years, when btc is roughly 3 years old.
No one tells you that this would last for ever. You are pointing to a fact that this cannot go for long,I agree with you, but thats it.Thats why people are taking part in it.

In reality, there are multiple users with five- or even six-digit BTC sums who would go great lengths to get 1% weekly return, not 7%. If the pirate wanted money, he'd go to them and offer security, and he'd be earning the entire difference of 6% in addition. The throughput would be gigantic even within one year. Too gigantic to sound realistic.

Nothing he does makes any sense from his perspective. He has a magical unbelievable money machine, but does... a mining site? He does a psychological trick to make it a PRIVILEGE for someone to be able to lend him money. It's textbook fraud. All the visible patterns seem to target psychology, but I don't see anything that makes sense economically.

Be that as it may, I've said my part. I wouldn't complain if this were MMM-2011, where the people who orchestrated it openly admitted what they were doing. This one is deceptive, and I hate deception. It, in my opinion, is enough reason to "misbehave" and temporarily disturb a thread.

Pirate's business plan is so profitable because of lack of competition.  If he only paid 1% weekly, he would have to explain his business plan.  If he explains his business plan, he will have more competition and thus less profit.

Now, quit trying to save people from the boogie man and let them learn for themselves.

[John (John K.)]

@FredericBastiat: The game ends abruptly at the point of maximum expected money deposits -- or, equivalently, as soon as the money flux goes negative. I would expect that behavior because it gives maximum profit. So, yes, this is point number 4.

Come on, how can u speak about 4 years, when btc is roughly 3 years old.
No one tells you that this would last for ever. You are pointing to a fact that this cannot go for long,I agree with you, but thats it.Thats why people are taking part in it.

In reality, there are multiple users with five- or even six-digit BTC sums who would go great lengths to get 1% weekly return, not 7%. If the pirate wanted money, he'd go to them and offer security, and he'd be earning the entire difference of 6% in addition. The throughput would be gigantic even within one year. Too gigantic to sound realistic.

Nothing he does makes any sense from his perspective. He has a magical unbelievable money machine, but does... a mining site? He does a psychological trick to make it a PRIVILEGE for someone to be able to lend him money. It's textbook fraud. All the visible patterns seem to target psychology, but I don't see anything that makes sense economically.

Be that as it may, I've said my part. I wouldn't complain if this were MMM-2011, where the people who orchestrated it openly admitted what they were doing. This one is deceptive, and I hate deception. It, in my opinion, is enough reason to "misbehave" and temporarily disturb a thread.

I could earn around 5-6% on my four-digit BTC sum just from arbing carefully. With a five to seven-digit BTC sum I think I would even earn considerably more as I can move the market easier. Hence that is why I think he offered a 7%.

[imsaguy]

Your math is off. Starting with 10K BTC and compounding every week that would give you .337M BTC. You're off by an order of magnitude.

Sorry, you are of course correct. But it is an exponential, so let's just change it to 2 years. Running two years from 10k BTC, he would end up with more BTC than currently exist!

The yield is something like 3300% annually. Yes, my earlier number was wrong. But even if it was wrong by two orders of magnitude, this would still be ridiculous.

What I'm trying to say is: the numbers are so far away from reality, it doesn't even matter. One BTC in four years would yield about 1,290,000 BTC. AND NO, I DID NOT MESS UP THE MATH THIS TIME.

Assuming that you don't withdraw the btc at any point.  AFAIK, at some point, everyone does a little profit taking. 

[FreeMoney]

Your math is off. Starting with 10K BTC and compounding every week that would give you .337M BTC. You're off by an order of magnitude.

Sorry, you are of course correct. But it is an exponential, so let's just change it to 2 years. Running two years from 10k BTC, he would end up with more BTC than currently exist!

The yield is something like 3300% annually. Yes, my earlier number was wrong. But even if it was wrong by two orders of magnitude, this would still be ridiculous.

What I'm trying to say is: the numbers are so far away from reality, it doesn't even matter. One BTC in four years would yield about 1,290,000 BTC. AND NO, I DID NOT MESS UP THE MATH THIS TIME.

Assuming that you don't withdraw the btc at any point.  AFAIK, at some point, everyone does a little profit taking. 

It is totally reasonable to be skeptical about high returns. But the people who are vocal about it are nuts. They do that simple and completely irrelevant calculation as if people or pirate will never scale back no matter how big it gets.

Pirate gets to push people out and afaik he actualy does it. So there is nothing exponential even implied here. It's like a standing loan with a standing payout. And when the loan amount goes up because pirate wants more the interest only goes up in exact proportion, linearly.

I think a fast BTC price rise is going to bring pain though, I'm watching closely.

[notme]

Your math is off. Starting with 10K BTC and compounding every week that would give you .337M BTC. You're off by an order of magnitude.

Sorry, you are of course correct. But it is an exponential, so let's just change it to 2 years. Running two years from 10k BTC, he would end up with more BTC than currently exist!

The yield is something like 3300% annually. Yes, my earlier number was wrong. But even if it was wrong by two orders of magnitude, this would still be ridiculous.

What I'm trying to say is: the numbers are so far away from reality, it doesn't even matter. One BTC in four years would yield about 1,290,000 BTC. AND NO, I DID NOT MESS UP THE MATH THIS TIME.

Assuming that you don't withdraw the btc at any point.  AFAIK, at some point, everyone does a little profit taking. 

It is totally reasonable to be skeptical about high returns. But the people who are vocal about it are nuts. They do that simple and completely irrelevant calculation as if people or pirate will never scale back no matter how big it gets.

Pirate gets to push people out and afaik he actualy does it. So there is nothing exponential even implied here. It's like a standing loan with a standing payout. And when the loan amount goes up because pirate wants more the interest only goes up in exact proportion, linearly.

I think a fast BTC price rise is going to bring pain though, I'm watching closely.

Or maybe he's all in and sitting this one out until it settles down... he did say he's taking a vacation this weekend.

[miscreanity]

It is totally reasonable to be skeptical about high returns. But the people who are vocal about it are nuts. They do that simple and completely irrelevant calculation as if people or pirate will never scale back no matter how big it gets.

Pirate gets to push people out and afaik he actualy does it. So there is nothing exponential even implied here. It's like a standing loan with a standing payout. And when the loan amount goes up because pirate wants more the interest only goes up in exact proportion, linearly.

I think a fast BTC price rise is going to bring pain though, I'm watching closely.

Or maybe he's all in and sitting this one out until it settles down... he did say he's taking a vacation this weekend.

Let's try to bring it back on track a little. What bitcoin variables do you think can affect your operation, and in which way? Inflation, growth index? And how do you believe that your operation will be affected by the halving of subsidy in December?

The only thing that would affect my profits would be a huge spike in price over a very short period of time.  At this point I really don't need to know when things will affect my operation because I'm able to hedge my risk with how it operates.  If I saw something coming that I felt would cost me more than I'm willing to lose, I would take the necessarily actions to limit the loss, but like I said... it's just a profit loss.  Like I've said before and my lenders know, if I had to take a large loss to cover coins... One, they wouldn't know about it (I still owe them the coins) and two it wouldn't be enough to put me in a pinch or cause me to run to Antarctica.  So as far as my lenders are concerned the only thing they need to trust is me.

I take this to indicate that repayment in terms of an appreciating medium would be painful, but return of capital is not the issue so much as return on capital, i.e. interest payments may be sacrificed to afford a reasonable shutdown of the operation if it runs into a brick wall. So default isn't likely, just a halt on high rates of return.