🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread

[cabron]

Here are the current odds for each fight of the UFC 307 (as per Duelbits):

Alex Pereira x1.20 Vs Khalil Rountree x4.50
Raquel Pennington x1.60 Vs Juliana Peña x2.33
Jose Aldo x2.16 Vs Mario Bautista x1.69
Ketlen Vieira x7.50 Vs Kayla Harrison x1.08
Roman Dolidze x2.22 Vs Kevin Holland x1.66
Stephen Thompson x2.75 Vs Joaquin Buckley x1.45
Marina Rodriguez x2.54 Vs Jasmin Lucindo x1.52
Austin Hubbard x2.33 Vs Alexander Hernandez x1.61
Cesar Almeida x1.26 Vs Igor Potieria x3.80
Ryan Spann x1.37 Vs Ovince Saint Preux x3.10
Carla Esparza x2.42 Vs Tecia Torres x1.57
Court McGee x2.62 Vs Tim Means x1.50

I think the odds for Rountree look pretty good, but maybe I'm overestimating his striking skills. I haven't seen that many of his fights and know him mostly from fight highlights, which can give a distorted picture.

^  Yeah after looking at it more closely I got 6 underdogs for this in my full event degen parlay...  Aldo, Thompson, Rodriguez, Hubbard, OSP and McGree.  The rest are favorites.  15 bucks win me over 20k USD if it hits.  Lolol. 

As for the odds on Rountree, prolly better to take him via KO/TKO?  I don't think he goes all 5 rounds vs a guy like Pereira.  And there's surely a chance he KO's the champ early.  We've seen it with Adesanya, who doesn't even hit that hard compared to Rountree.

Live weigh ins in three hours..

UFC 307:  Live Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g04VRM9_uU0

Ceremonial weigh ins a few hours later.

UFC 307:  Ceremonial Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6f5HTY2i14

$15 to win $20k. That's worth a try.



Doesn't look like Roundtree can last R1 since this is a pure standing fight, the size is very obvious in the staredown.  He may be KO'd before he can even try figuring out how he could counter.  But then who knows if Roundtree could do some miracle, it would be one of the biggest upsets that one would never stop replaying.
Notice Dana is not around. 

[LogitechMouse]

---
Doesn't look like Roundtree can last R1 since this is a pure standing fight, the size is very obvious in the staredown.  He may be KO'd before he can even try figuring out how he could counter.  But then who knows if Roundtree could do some miracle, it would be one of the biggest upsets that one would never stop replaying.
Notice Dana is not around. 

I also tried to watch that first face-off, and it really isn't that good for Rountree at all.
If you watched the whole video, after their face-off, Rountree just took a deep heavy breath and I know that it's only a heavy breath but for me, there's a meaning to it and looking at how huge Pereira is during that face-off, he must said to himself "My body must be ready before fighting this big monster".

Anyway, I doubt that he will last 2 rounds. I mean Prochazka barely survived on the first round only to get knocked out on the first seconds of the 2nd. I don't want to underestimate Rountree, but with how dangerous Pereira is, this might be an easy win for him. One punch could change everything some might say and that could be true, but I wonder if he can land a solid punch against him. Miracle? I don't believe there will be and I don't think that there will be an upset either. There's a chance though of course, but not at that fight.

[pawel7777]

Yeah, the size difference in that face-off looked huge. It's hard to believe they're in the same weight class. That's a big disadvantage for Rountree, especially knowing it will most likely to be a purely striking match.

Chat GPT did well last time. Its prediction for this one:

Prediction: Alex Pereira wins via KO/TKO in Round 2.
Confidence Level: 85%

An one for Thomson Vs Buckley:
Prediction: Stephen Thompson wins via Unanimous Decision.
Confidence Level: 80%

[jakelyson]

I actually made a post in another UFC thread and I have bet for Benoit Saint-Denis that it was really a bad idea I thought that Saint-Denis would just steamroll Moicano in that fight but I was completely wrong Renato Moicano was the technical fighter in that Octagon and brute strength is not enough to defeat a Renato Moicano he is more technical with his movement it was all calculated for me Renato Moicano should fight Charles Oliveira next and see if who's a better grappler and even on the feat where Benoit Saint-Denis Excels it was a domination for Moicano,

I can't blame you for making that bet. I too thought that Saint Denis would run Moicano over, and I don't recall hearing anyone predict Moicano's win.
The only one who got it right was... the chat GPT Fight Analyst Advanced. I asked it to analyse Saint Denis Vs Moicano twice and both times it pointed out Moicano as a winner, one time with a greater level of confidence, the other time with a smaller but still. I can't remember what way of win it has predicted, but it wasn't a doctor's stoppage  .

Yup! Most of the posts that I see were for Benoit Saint-Denis and I can not really see how Renato Moicano won this even in his previous fights he seems to be a different person from back then I am truly amazed by how much he can now offer into the table just like Charles Oliveira back then is just a blunt fighter but right now Renato Moicano is like that he become a most notable fighter after this fight and just like Charles Oliveira I really want to see another fight with Renato Moicano and getting into the upper ranks and eventually getting into the championship fight.

Doesn't look like Roundtree can last R1 since this is a pure standing fight, the size is very obvious in the staredown.  He may be KO'd before he can even try figuring out how he could counter.  But then who knows if Roundtree could do some miracle, it would be one of the biggest upsets that one would never stop replaying.
Notice Dana is not around. 

Look how huge Alex Pereira is over Khalil Roundtree this is really something that most fans are saying that Roundtree might not be enough against Pereira as many suggested that this fight is going to be one-sided and looking at the provided picture it seems that they are right because height and weight can have a huge role in ones fight, and Alex Pereira has a huge advantage with his height and his range aswell and the most dominant trait of Pereira was his striking and his reach will surely materialize in this fight as Roundtree is simply a striker aswell so that will be a huge advantage on Pereira as he is great and would like to exchange blows with his opponent.

[Hanadawa]

Miracle? I don't believe there will be and I don't think that there will be an upset either. There's a chance though of course, but not at that fight.

The fact is Alex Pereira has a bigger posture than Rountree. If they fight with striking I think Pereira has a great chance to win the fight. I also agree that the fight will last under 3 rounds and Pereira can win this fight via KO/TKO. It's hard to find a miracle here because both fighters are strikers. Rountree doesn't have enough wrestling skills to dominate Pereira.

But if we talk about chances I think Rountree can still give a surprise if their team has a good gameplan. Yes Rountree's victory is in their gameplan. It's hard to find a chance for Rountree to win through striking or wrestling. This reminds me of the Usman vs Edwards 2 fight where Edwards shocked the world with a kick that put Usman to sleep and he said it was one of their gameplans because Usman has a habit of moving his head when trying to avoid punches.

[tokeweed]

^  I guess you guys didn't watch the pre fight press conference..?  Rountree said he has a secret move against Pereira.  Could the secret move be the oblique kick that could break knees?  

Yeah, the size difference in that face-off looked huge. It's hard to believe they're in the same weight class. That's a big disadvantage for Rountree, especially knowing it will most likely to be a purely striking match.

Chat GPT did well last time. Its prediction for this one:

Prediction: Alex Pereira wins via KO/TKO in Round 2.
Confidence Level: 85%

An one for Thomson Vs Buckley:
Prediction: Stephen Thompson wins via Unanimous Decision.
Confidence Level: 80%

Hmmm...  Interesting.  Let let's check the prop lines for those.  Alex Pereira to win at R2 is at 4.30.  That's not a bad line tbh.  And yeah, I have a feeling Thompson moght still have somethimg in him to eek out a win in this spot.  He's at 2.95 rn to win straight up and 4.25 to win via DEC.  I'm fine with him straight up at 2.95.  As the event is at high altitude, Buckley could gas out.  But dunno tho.

Anyway here are the weigh results.  Everybody made weight.

Champ Alex Pereira (205) vs Khalil Rountree (205)
Champ Raquel Pennington (135) vs Julianna Peña (134.5)
Jose Aldo (136) vs Mario Bautista (136)
Kayla Harrison (136) vs Ketlen Vieira (136)
Roman Dolidze (185.5) vs Kevin Holland (185.5)
Joaquin Buckley (170.5) vs Stephen Thompson (171)
Iasmin Lucindo (116) vs Marina Rodriguez (115.5)
Cesar Almeida (185.5) vs Ihor Potieria (185.5)
Alexander Hernandez (156) vs Austin Hubbard (156)
Ovince Saint Preux (205.5) vs Ryan Spann (205.5)
Carla Esparza (115.5) vs Tecia Pennington (115)
Court McGee (170) vs Tim Means (171)

[electronicash]

^  I guess you guys didn't watch the pre fight press conference..?  Rountree said he has a secret move against Pereira.  Could the secret move be the oblique kick that could break knees?  

Yeah, the size difference in that face-off looked huge. It's hard to believe they're in the same weight class. That's a big disadvantage for Rountree, especially knowing it will most likely to be a purely striking match.

Chat GPT did well last time. Its prediction for this one:

Prediction: Alex Pereira wins via KO/TKO in Round 2.
Confidence Level: 85%

An one for Thomson Vs Buckley:
Prediction: Stephen Thompson wins via Unanimous Decision.
Confidence Level: 80%

Hmmm...  Interesting.  Let let's check the prop lines for those.  Alex Pereira to win at R2 is at 4.30.  That's not a bad line tbh.  And yeah, I have a feeling Thompson moght still have somethimg in him to eek out a win in this spot.  He's at 2.95 rn to win straight up and 4.25 to win via DEC.  I'm fine with him straight up at 2.95.  As the event is at high altitude, Buckley could gas out.  But dunno tho.

Anyway here are the weigh results.  Everybody made weight.

Champ Alex Pereira (205) vs Khalil Rountree (205)
Champ Raquel Pennington (135) vs Julianna Peña (134.5)
Jose Aldo (136) vs Mario Bautista (136)
Kayla Harrison (136) vs Ketlen Vieira (136)
Roman Dolidze (185.5) vs Kevin Holland (185.5)
Joaquin Buckley (170.5) vs Stephen Thompson (171)
Iasmin Lucindo (116) vs Marina Rodriguez (115.5)
Cesar Almeida (185.5) vs Ihor Potieria (185.5)
Alexander Hernandez (156) vs Austin Hubbard (156)
Ovince Saint Preux (205.5) vs Ryan Spann (205.5)
Carla Esparza (115.5) vs Tecia Pennington (115)
Court McGee (170) vs Tim Means (171)

you mean this kick https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3wY0pjkjIo
its possible. i thought this is illegal.

[pawel7777]

you mean this kick https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C3wY0pjkjIo
its possible. i thought this is illegal.

I'm pretty sure this is legal and should remain as such.
I think it was Jon Jones who gave a good reply to a reporter criticising him for throwing similar types of kicks, saying that they actually are less dangerous than punches/kicks to the head, which could cause permanent brain damage (or even death) or just cumulate and result in Parkinson's disease or alike later in life.

[LogitechMouse]

Miracle? I don't believe there will be and I don't think that there will be an upset either. There's a chance though of course, but not at that fight.

The fact is Alex Pereira has a bigger posture than Rountree. If they fight with striking I think Pereira has a great chance to win the fight. I also agree that the fight will last under 3 rounds and Pereira can win this fight via KO/TKO. It's hard to find a miracle here because both fighters are strikers. Rountree doesn't have enough wrestling skills to dominate Pereira.

But if we talk about chances I think Rountree can still give a surprise if their team has a good gameplan. Yes Rountree's victory is in their gameplan. It's hard to find a chance for Rountree to win through striking or wrestling. This reminds me of the Usman vs Edwards 2 fight where Edwards shocked the world with a kick that put Usman to sleep and he said it was one of their gameplans because Usman has a habit of moving his head when trying to avoid punches.

Well, I guess we have this thing where if a fighter wins multiple times, we always thought that he will still be winning all the time. It's like when Canelo faced Bivol where we all thought that Canelo will defeat him just because he has defeat all of his opponents in the past (except for Mayweather), but Bivol just toyed with him all throughout the fight hence, losing it. I'm not saying that Pereira will win this fight 100%, but Rountree still has a chance to make an upset still.

I did a quick research and Rountree has a 5-fight win streak, 2nd longest in all active fighters so I guess this shows that he's good especially knowing the fact that 4 of the 5 victories that he got are achieved through knockout. Anyway, let's enjoy the fight a few hours from now, and I hope that it will not be a boring fight again. Here's the odds on Razed.com, and it's no surprising at all.

[Hirose UK]

Yeah, the size difference in that face-off looked huge. It's hard to believe they're in the same weight class. That's a big disadvantage for Rountree, especially knowing it will most likely to be a purely striking match.

Chat GPT did well last time. Its prediction for this one:

Prediction: Alex Pereira wins via KO/TKO in Round 2.
Confidence Level: 85%

~snip~

Actually I much more interested in the Pereira vs Ankalaev fight as has been widely discussed before but Dana has other plans with each of them fighting with predetermined opponent, it is that Ankalaev will fight Aleksandar Rakic ​​and if Ankalaev wins then he has the opportunity to fight for the title.
In the Pereira vs Rountree fight itself will take place today and of course all the advantages belong to Pereira so it is very natural that he is the favorite and many parties and fans make him the favorite and even predict that he can win by KO.
Pereira has very good strength in terms of attack and he has pretty hard punch and can make his opponent feel how the blow is brutally and can even make the opponent fall and lose consciousness, even though Rountree is pretty great fighter in this division but Pereira has deadly uppercut-hook.

[teddybear]

Was Aldo robbed or what? couple of dodgy calls. What are these ref's watching? Now Pennington got robbed. Judges are on something tonight.

[OgNasty]

I was glad to see that Kayla Harrison won her fight. I think she’s on her way to being a UFC champion. Not much in the way of excitement outside that for me. Pereira won his fight with a less than spectacular stoppage and it didn’t look like his opponent wanted to be in there. Can’t say I blame him but no surprises tonight.

[tokeweed]

Was Aldo robbed or what? couple of dodgy calls. What are these ref's watching? Now Pennington got robbed. Judges are on something tonight.

That's def a yes for both but only because I had bets on them both.  Lolol.    But seriously, yeah...  Some bad decisions for the event but it is what it is.  We move on to the next one which is a big test for the Japanese guy.

Here are the results...

Alex Pereira def Khalil Rountree Jr  TKO R4
Julianna Peña def Raquel Pennington  SD
Mario Bautista def Jose Aldo  SD
Roman Dolidze def Kevin Holland  TKO R1
Kayla Harrison def Ketlen Vieira  UD
Joaquin Buckley def Stephen Thompson  KO R3
Iasmin Lucindo def Marina Rodriguez  SD
Alexander Hernandez def Austin Hubbard  SD
Cesar Almeida def Ihor Potieria  UD
Ryan Spann def Ovince Saint Preux  SUB R1
Tecia Pennington def Carla Esparza  UD
Court McGee def Tim Means  SUB R1

Here's the post fight press conference.

UFC 307:  Post Fight Press Conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjpcoERuif4

Overall just an average event.  I liked UFC Paris more tbh.

[notblox1]

Alex Pereira remains the king of UFC light heavyweight division!
Rountree was holding good for first few rounds, but fight finished like I expected and it was finished in fourth round.
Next fight for Pereira could be against winner of  Ankalaev vs Rakic, or Prochazka, but I really want to see him against Jon Jones after that.

[TopTort777]

The amazing part of Pereira vs Rountree fight was that is has lasted for 4 rounds With odds like 4.5+, Pereira should have chopped him down in first or second round. But the fight went till 4th round. Only fight against Izzy lasted till 5th round. All other opponents Pereira has finished in first and second rounds. For me this means that Rountree aint that easy opponent. Even though he lost, his value imho has increased. The second round was the best of Rountree. But, starting from third, I felt like Khalils gas tank started to leak heavily. What do you think? Am I the only one to notice that he turned extremely slow?

[Lykslyks]

I was glad to see that Kayla Harrison won her fight. I think she’s on her way to being a UFC champion. Not much in the way of excitement outside that for me. Pereira won his fight with a less than spectacular stoppage and it didn’t look like his opponent wanted to be in there. Can’t say I blame him but no surprises tonight.

I was really busy and missed the UFC 307 but I have watched the replays for most of the fights that I like and one of them is the fight between Kayla Harrison vs. Ketlen Vieira it was really a fight that Kayla Harrison dominated and I have seen that Harrison was really well rounded with her moves when it comes with Standing and on the ground she has dominates Ketlen Vieira is both aspects and I really love how the fight had ended and still even if she has lost Ketlen Vieira still prayed for Harrison.

Alex Pereira remains the king of UFC light heavyweight division!
Rountree was holding good for first few rounds, but fight finished like I expected and it was finished in fourth round.
Next fight for Pereira could be against winner of  Ankalaev vs Rakic, or Prochazka, but I really want to see him against Jon Jones after that.

For me Khalil Roundtree has a solid chin that can withstand the strikes of Alex Pereira we can see that it was a different Rountree he is now calmer and not like the Roundtree that is reckless this Khalil Roundtree is now waiting for the opportunity to strike but unfortunately Alex Pereira is not a push over even though Roundtree knockout pereira in the 1st round Pereira's jab have proven useful the entire event that has Knockout Khalil Roundtree.

[l99l]

Alex Pereira remains the king of UFC light heavyweight division!
Rountree was holding good for first few rounds, but fight finished like I expected and it was finished in fourth round.
Next fight for Pereira could be against winner of  Ankalaev vs Rakic, or Prochazka, but I really want to see him against Jon Jones after that.

Perreria will move up to heavyweight, I don't know when that will be.
There are still a few fighters left at light heavyweight who need to fight. If he moves up to heavyweight, I really want a Jon Jones fight.
Khalil Roundtree was respected by many people because he was durable but after the 3rd round his conditioning was gone.

[cabron]

The amazing part of Pereira vs Rountree fight was that is has lasted for 4 rounds With odds like 4.5+, Pereira should have chopped him down in first or second round. But the fight went till 4th round. Only fight against Izzy lasted till 5th round. All other opponents Pereira has finished in first and second rounds. For me this means that Rountree aint that easy opponent. Even though he lost, his value imho has increased. The second round was the best of Rountree. But, starting from third, I felt like Khalils gas tank started to leak heavily. What do you think? Am I the only one to notice that he turned extremely slow?

Rountree keeps charging back every time Pereira throws a jab. He isn't waiting for Pereira to position for a combo in the first rounds, which I think is why he lasted a few rounds. If that was the secret strategy he was saying it's not working because Pereira is cautious of his counter combo.

Roundtree dropped Pereira in the 2nd round when he ducked the head kick and counter a right hook. The R2 I think is where Roundtree made it where he also scored a head kick. The strategy almost worked and exposed Pereira.

[pawel7777]

Perreria will move up to heavyweight, I don't know when that will be.
(...)

I think so too. He's 37 and maybe has like 4-5 fights at the highest level left in him, so he probably wants to maximise the profit before retiring and won't be much interested in fighting some average fighters from light heavyweight.
His next opponent should be Ankalaev, assuming he beats Rakic. So Alex could either escape the Ankalaev fight by moving up to the heavyweight, or fight Ankalaev and then (if victorious) move up to fight either Jon Jones or Tom Aspinal. But if he was to lose to Ankalaev and move up, he unlikely would get a shot for the belt and would have to fight someone lower-ranked first.
Anyhow, there aren't many interesting options left for him in the light heavyweight. But then again, the UFC matched him up against Rountree, a fight that no one expected, so who knows what they will come up with next.

[LogitechMouse]

The amazing part of Pereira vs Rountree fight was that is has lasted for 4 rounds With odds like 4.5+, Pereira should have chopped him down in first or second round. But the fight went till 4th round. Only fight against Izzy lasted till 5th round. All other opponents Pereira has finished in first and second rounds. For me this means that Rountree aint that easy opponent. Even though he lost, his value imho has increased. The second round was the best of Rountree. But, starting from third, I felt like Khalils gas tank started to leak heavily. What do you think? Am I the only one to notice that he turned extremely slow?

He can't because Rountree just dominated him in the first 2 round with his counter and knowing that he's a striker, I know that he can do that. It's just that, Pereira's power slowly got him in the 3rd round and got completely dominated in the 4th round. Rountree might have that speed to counter and power to strike Pereira, but Pereira's power is just too much hence, he slowly crumbled starting the 3rd round. What I believe though is that, Rountree got my respect because of this fight, and even though he lost, many of those fans cheered for him because nobody expected him to last 4 rounds knowing that he's up against one of the best currently.

Was Aldo robbed or what? couple of dodgy calls. What are these ref's watching? Now Pennington got robbed. Judges are on something tonight.

As for Aldo-Bautista, I also thought that Aldo got robbed. I mean it's anybody's fight at that time, and even I can't even pick on who's the winner after 3 rounds. Nevertheless, a well deserved win I guess.