🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread

[TopTort777]

It would not be a miracle if after Bones retirement, UFC all of a sudden consider to change something in their rules policy

Damn, that UFC 309 main event, Bones vs Miocic is going to be so boring. First comes after a 1.5 year pause, other fought 4 years ago last time and is already in age. I am sure UFC is going to charge a lot of money for a ticket for a main event, that is not going to last more than 1-3 minutes.

[tokeweed]

Jumping a bit forward - Cyril Gane vs Alexander Volkov fight that was scheduled on UFC 308 has been cancelled due to Volkovs injury. Theoretically, imagine Chimaev drops also, and cool card already isnt that cool anymore.

I was watching who that Khalil Rountree really is, was watching his fight and my attention caught his fight against Bukauskas. Rountree won via oblique kick. What do you think about that? If performed well, it causes huge, I mean HUGE troubles and injury. It basically destroys your knee and recover takes up to a year as minimum. If UFC ban 6 to 12 elbows, shouldnt oblique kick be banned also? It is far more dangerous than those elbows. Or UFC will allow that until Bones performs ? As he loves to do it.

I think the ban of the 6 - 12 elbows is dumb.  They should allow it and only disallow it at the back of the head an back of the neck.  But it's not the UFC's call.  It's the regulating body in the different states in the US.

And yeah, nice to see you saw Rountree vs Bukauskas.    Darren Till was jokingly saying that it should be banned too when Whittaker did it to him and somewhat got his knee slightly injured during the match.  Till was able to finish the whole 5 rounds but he was compromised.

Edit:  Looking at the 308 roster now, the whole event is good from top to bottom even without Gane vs Volkov.

How many times did Whittaker landed that oblique kick to Romero? If you have time, rewarch their fight. It was like a dozen of them in every round It proves that Romero isnt human He survived them, he survived neck break like it was nothing. And that dude is 47 and still fighting in Bellator

Heard of that story from Rogan. Romero was said to be a Cuban mutant. The rules bout 6-12 elbows are going to take effect this Nov as far as I know. Feels like they only approved it for Jon Jones's advantage. Oblique kicks + elbows. Jones will take back the #1 p4p rank after his fight with Stipe. Must be Dana's plan.

FN this Saturday is quite good. Match matchmaker seems doing well. I'd take my chance to parlay.

Benoit Saint Denis   by Sub         
Nassourdine Imavov  by Sub         
 Joanderson Brito           
Bryan Battle           
Miranda           
Fares Ziam
Ivan Erslan

If there was a guy between the two in the main event who's gonna actually SUB somebody more likely it's gonna be Moicano imho.

As for Imavov winning via SUB...  Maybe as it's MMA but he's mostly a striker.  And it's Brendan Allen who's more of a grappler. 

Anyway before Jalin Turner, I thought Moicano was done.  He fought at 145 before and was one of the guys who could fight for the belt but it never materialized.  When he moved up to 155, he didn't really have a good run esp after getting KO'd by Fiziev.  But then he turned it around and got a good win from Turner as the underdog.

He's pretty good and I think how the books lined this one is total disrespect for Moicano.

UFC Free Fight:  Moicano vs Turner
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cj0t8wapo20

UFC Free Fight:  Saint Denis vs Moises
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nti1gFLoD_Q

[TopTort777]

Some news from Instagram: turns out that Sean Strickland used to train with Rountree in the same gym. Strickland described Rountree as a sissy, because he always complain, and wrote police denunciation on Strickland. Turns out that Strickland knows Rountree well. That is why, Pereira has called Strickland to his camp Its either in combat sports every little info is valuable, or Pereira and Strickland are now good friends, or Pereiras team consider Rountree as a danger and want to minimize lucky punch Btw, Rountree is a southpaw, and some experts (or "experts") say that Pereira performs worse exactly against southpaw fighters. And all know well how underdogs can sometimes surprise us

[tokeweed]

^  He may complain a lot but I doubt he's a 'sissy'.  He fights in a cage for a living ffs...  And I just want to watch a good fight between Rountree and Periera.

Here are the replays

UFC Free Fight:  Imavov vs Cannonier
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-M33sDf7og

UFC Free Fight:  Allen vs Curtis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_SlOqjbKTA

I'm not really sure why Allen is lined at 2.75 here.  I don't think Imavov fought a guy who could wrestle and grapple before except for Phil Hawes. 

[TopTort777]

Yeap, strange to see Allen has such an odd. In fact, I though he is going to win. Allen has been showing a more stable performance than Imavov. In fact, in last fight, before the fourth round and a TKO, Imavov was loosing the fight based on score cards info (even though it was a split decision). The fight before that, 1 point deduction. Fight before that, head clash. Now look on Allen - choking guys from behind since 2022 without a fail Just because Imavov is higher in rating, his is more favourite?

[OgNasty]

I feel like it’s a bad time to be a casual UFC fan. Suga lost, Connor is nowhere to be found when it comes to actually fighting in the UFC, and all the other names we’ve come to grow and love are being replaced with Russian fighters. We pretty much just have Paddy the Baddy left, who is struggling to get a shot at a title fight.

[cabron]

Yeap, strange to see Allen has such an odd. In fact, I though he is going to win. Allen has been showing a more stable performance than Imavov. In fact, in last fight, before the fourth round and a TKO, Imavov was loosing the fight based on score cards info (even though it was a split decision). The fight before that, 1 point deduction. Fight before that, head clash. Now look on Allen - choking guys from behind since 2022 without a fail Just because Imavov is higher in rating, his is more favourite?

What they are saying was that both these guys fought Curtis and Brendan Allen struggled to win while Imavov, though it ended in NC, dominated Curtis and took him down several times Imanov won as well even in the standing exchange. This could just be a fair fight Allen is not really far from Cannonier or Vettori's rank in MW.

I feel like it’s a bad time to be a casual UFC fan. Suga lost, Connor is nowhere to be found when it comes to actually fighting in the UFC, and all the other names we’ve come to grow and love are being replaced with Russian fighters. We pretty much just have Paddy the Baddy left, who is struggling to get a shot at a title fight.

I guess Dana is right about taking over Boxing.
But didn't Dana mention that Jon Jones is the best P4P fighter in the world?    

[pawel7777]

No disrespect to Chimaev, but remember his performance against Burns? Even though he won, it was a really hard fight for him. Remember fight against Usman. Usman can be considered as close to old right now, add that he has those knee problems all the time. Went on a 10 day notice against Chimaev and lost only due to majority decision (when it should be UD or Chimaev should have submitted him). Whittakers striking is better than Burns, who gave a nice beating to Chimaev. Whittakers cardio is great (look at how many 3 or 5 rounds fights he had). Whittakers last opponent, Aliskerov, is a small copy of Chimaev (if we talk about wrestling and all that Dagestani stuff) Got KOed in first round. Whittakers wrestling is on a good level (won 2 times against Romero, who has got numerous gold medals and silver on Olympics).

Put on scales all Whittaker skills, and Chimaev disadvantages, and I think that the scales will lean on Roberts side.

Will you be betting on Whittaker then? He's an underdog, so if you truly believe he's the favourite, there are some decent odds to grab. I wouldn't recommend it though.

Many are criticising Chimaev for poor cardio, but you can't be looking only at the number of rounds and how tired a fighter appears to be without considering what he had actually done in the octagon.
It's not hard to look fresh and durable in a fight that lacks action.
In the Burns fight, Khamzat had almost 40% strikes more than Whittaker in his latest full 3-rounder against Costa. Khamzat also shot for 3 takedowns (2 successful) Vs one unsuccessful of Whittaker, and defended against 223 Burns' strikes Vs 151 strikes of Costa. All this drains much more energy.

If the fight goes to distance and the fighter doesn't look exhausted at the end, that only means he didn't give his 100%.

[TopTort777]

Yeap, Whittaker is going to be my selection. All he needs to do is to avoid close combat in first rounds, so that Chimaev wont jump for a takedown. In striking, Whittaker is much better. And he has good skills to counter Chimaev wrestling. Imho weight cutting will be Whittaker advantage also. Never heard he had any troubles. But those mountain guys (Dagestani, Chechen and etc) always have problems with it, and cutting is more complicated part for them is, than fighting.

[tokeweed]

^  Whittaker at 2.65 is def the value side.  As you guys already know, Chim doesn't really fight all the good against the top guys.  Couple that with Whttaker as an underdog, it's a no brainer.  That chin worries me tho.

Early lines can be found at Fightodds in case you guys are wondering...

https://fightodds.io/odds/5611/ufc-308-topuria-vs-holloway

Yeap, strange to see Allen has such an odd. In fact, I though he is going to win. Allen has been showing a more stable performance than Imavov. In fact, in last fight, before the fourth round and a TKO, Imavov was loosing the fight based on score cards info (even though it was a split decision). The fight before that, 1 point deduction. Fight before that, head clash. Now look on Allen - choking guys from behind since 2022 without a fail Just because Imavov is higher in rating, his is more favourite?

Yeah...  Cannonier is just getting old now.  He can't keep cutting all that weight to 185 and have 5 whole rounds of cardio.  He used to fight at HW, then LHW, then decided to really slim down and fight at 185 lbs.  

Here's a vid of Brito vs Pearce.  I think I had a bet on Pearce in this fight.  

UFC Brasil Free Fight:  Brito vs Pearce
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j58aMybTrB8

[TopTort777]

Yeah...  Cannonier is just getting old now.  He can't keep cutting all that weight to 185 and have 5 whole rounds of cardio.  He used to fight at HW, then LHW, then decided to really slim down and fight at 185 lbs.  

Have you watched the movie The Curious Case of Jared Cannonier ? Usually fighters and people gain weight with time. Jared has chosen different path. And from that change of division nothing good usually comes out. Because you either cut a lot and that is bad, or gain to fit (which is stupid, as others cut to fit, and on a fight day you fight against a more massive guy).



And this is him in the end of his career as a flyweight.

[Hanadawa]

It would not be a miracle if after Bones retirement, UFC all of a sudden consider to change something in their rules policy
Damn, that UFC 309 main event, Bones vs Miocic is going to be so boring. First comes after a 1.5 year pause, other fought 4 years ago last time and is already in age. I am sure UFC is going to charge a lot of money for a ticket for a main event, that is not going to last more than 1-3 minutes.

I don't know what Uncle Dana was thinking. I mean if you want to establish Jones as the best in the heavyweight division or even number 1 P4P then Jones should fight Aspinall or an elite heavyweight fighter right now. Yes Miocic is the GOAT in the heavyweight division because of his title defense record. But the reality is he is old and hasn't fought in a long time. I think his fighting spirit has faded. Jones said it's a Goat vs Goat fight to see who the real Goat is. It seems like Jones knows he can win the fight easily. I will bet on Jones to win and my decision will remain the same until fight day.

[pawel7777]

Somehow I missed the UFC 309 announcement.
Everything has been said about Jones Vs Stipe, so nothing to add here, bur Oliveira Vs Chandler looks like a decent match-up and has a lot of entertainment potential.
Odds: Oliveira: x1.38, Chandler: x3.05, pretty much what I would expect. I don't give Chandler much chance, even in his prime he wouldn't be on Chales' level, but he's 38 now and last fought two years ago. He should still be able to put up a good show.

Bo Nickal got paired up with Paul Craig. It doesn't look like a massive challenge for Bo, Paul has lost 4 out of his last 5 fights, but at least he knows his ground game, 76% of his wins were by submission (he's 17-8). Bookies don't have much faith in Paul though. He's x6.75 and Bo is x1.11.

[TopTort777]

Somehow I missed the UFC 309 announcement.
Everything has been said about Jones Vs Stipe, so nothing to add here, bur Oliveira Vs Chandler looks like a decent match-up and has a lot of entertainment potential.
Odds: Oliveira: x1.38, Chandler: x3.05, pretty much what I would expect. I don't give Chandler much chance, even in his prime he wouldn't be on Chales' level, but he's 38 now and last fought two years ago. He should still be able to put up a good show.

Bo Nickal got paired up with Paul Craig. It doesn't look like a massive challenge for Bo, Paul has lost 4 out of his last 5 fights, but at least he knows his ground game, 76% of his wins were by submission (he's 17-8). Bookies don't have much faith in Paul though. He's x6.75 and Bo is x1.11.

Possible, UFC matchmakers have such a plan: they really hope that Chandler would beat Oliveira. This would make Chandler #2 in lightweight, and it could be smart to organize Chandler vs McGregor fight then, and really hope that Conor win. Potentially, this makes him a real contender for a title fight. Just imagine hype if Conor returns, and after 1 fight, fights for a belt, and he wins it.

As to Nickal vs Craig, I think they have made this fight only because both are great at "hugging" Craig has name, he would be a nice boost for Nickal. Craig is about to get kicked from UFC imho. So they try to kill 2 rabbits with 1 shot, get maximum out of Craig.

[tokeweed]

Somehow I missed the UFC 309 announcement.
Everything has been said about Jones Vs Stipe, so nothing to add here, bur Oliveira Vs Chandler looks like a decent match-up and has a lot of entertainment potential.
Odds: Oliveira: x1.38, Chandler: x3.05, pretty much what I would expect. I don't give Chandler much chance, even in his prime he wouldn't be on Chales' level, but he's 38 now and last fought two years ago. He should still be able to put up a good show.

Bo Nickal got paired up with Paul Craig. It doesn't look like a massive challenge for Bo, Paul has lost 4 out of his last 5 fights, but at least he knows his ground game, 76% of his wins were by submission (he's 17-8). Bookies don't have much faith in Paul though. He's x6.75 and Bo is x1.11.

Oof...  Chandler at 3.05 could be a decent bet.  I don't think a lot of fans realize how chinny Oliveira is.  And Chandler packs a good punch.  His cardio could be an issue but then again Oliveira isn't a cardio machine either. 

But yeah, decent match up.  At least Chandler got a good opponent as the match up vs McGregor wasn't meant to be.

Anyway, live weigh ins in three hours or so.

UFC Paris:  Ceremonial Weigh-In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLb22CmYJgQ

Enjoy...

[TopTort777]

Oof...  Chandler at 3.05 could be a decent bet.  I don't think a lot of fans realize how chinny Oliveira is.  And Chandler packs a good punch.  His cardio could be an issue but then again Oliveira isn't a cardio machine either. 

But yeah, decent match up.  At least Chandler got a good opponent as the match up vs McGregor wasn't meant to be.

Yeap, remember how in the past, or in the beginning of career in UFC, Oliveira used to give up and tap as soon as he gets some damage or feels that something happens with his body (past injury reveals itself). I really dont like his tactics of falling on the back, on the canvas after getting first damage to head, and try to welcome to fight on his territory of BJJ. Check any video where he gets a head punch. Boom and he is on the back, welcoming his opponent for a full mount. Since his striking base is Muay Thai, with clinches and etc, will it be an advantage for a wrestler like Chandler? Doing takedowns is pretty dangerous, as it opens neck for a guillotine. And having a backpack with brand name Charles Oliveira on the back is always a huge threat. 

[cabron]

Oof...  Chandler at 3.05 could be a decent bet.  I don't think a lot of fans realize how chinny Oliveira is.  And Chandler packs a good punch.  His cardio could be an issue but then again Oliveira isn't a cardio machine either. 

But yeah, decent match up.  At least Chandler got a good opponent as the match up vs McGregor wasn't meant to be.

Yeap, remember how in the past, or in the beginning of career in UFC, Oliveira used to give up and tap as soon as he gets some damage or feels that something happens with his body (past injury reveals itself). I really dont like his tactics of falling on the back, on the canvas after getting first damage to head, and try to welcome to fight on his territory of BJJ. Check any video where he gets a head punch. Boom and he is on the back, welcoming his opponent for a full mount. Since his striking base is Muay Thai, with clinches and etc, will it be an advantage for a wrestler like Chandler? Doing takedowns is pretty dangerous, as it opens neck for a guillotine. And having a backpack with brand name Charles Oliveira on the back is always a huge threat. 

After several losses in Charles's UFC career, he eventually picked the timing. This is their rematch already which Chandler almost won in the first fight but was caught by a left hook and rattle to the very end. Chandler always has this moment every time he receives a big blow - one time Chandler vs Brooks where he was stunned and was shocked he was waving his hands facing somewhere else.

Congrats to Chandler though. He finally gets a good fight after waiting for Connor. Maybe he can get even.

[pawel7777]

Possible, UFC matchmakers have such a plan: they really hope that Chandler would beat Oliveira. This would make Chandler #2 in lightweight, and it could be smart to organize Chandler vs McGregor fight then, and really hope that Conor win. Potentially, this makes him a real contender for a title fight. Just imagine hype if Conor returns, and after 1 fight, fights for a belt, and he wins it.

That would be a bold plan given that Charles KO'd Chandler in the 2nd round of their first fight and there's no way Chandler is any better now than he was back then.
If they we're to prop up Chandler before fighting McGregor (who is not coming back but we can still pretend) they'd match him up with Gaethje instead.

Meanwhile, McGregor is calling out Paddy Pimblett now:
https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/other-sports/mma/conor-mcgregor-ufc-fight-news-33756814
*yawn*

Oof...  Chandler at 3.05 could be a decent bet.  I don't think a lot of fans realize how chinny Oliveira is.  And Chandler packs a good punch.  His cardio could be an issue but then again Oliveira isn't a cardio machine either. 

I dunno, somehow I can't imagine Chandler defeating Charles. Is it possible? Yes. Probable? Not really. x3.05 is not enough for me.

[tokeweed]

^  Yeah I'd prolly go Chandler via KO and the line could go north of 7.00.  But we'll see when the props come out...  And we can't really go with Oliveira with where his line is at if we think about his durability issues.  But he def could finish Chandler via SUB.  But that's not gonna pay much me thinks. 

Anyway here are the weigh in results.  Just one miss...  Good enough.

Renato Moicano (156) vs Benoit Saint Denis (156)
Brendan Allen (186) vs Nassourdine Imavov (186)
Joanderson Brito (146) vs William Gomis (146)
Bryan Battle (170) vs Kevin Jousset (169)
Morgan Charriere (146) vs Gabriel Miranda (146)
Matt Frevola (156) vs Fares Ziam (156)
Ion Cutelaba (205) vs Ivan Erslan (206)
Da Woon Jung (205) vs Oumar Sy (205)
Ludovit Klein (155) vs Roosevelt Roberts (155)
Ailin Perez (136.5)* vs Darya Zheleznyakova (135)
Taylor Lapilus (136) vs Vince Morales (135)
Victor Altamirano (126) vs Daniel Barez (125)
Jacqueline Cavalcanti (135) vs Nora Cornolle (136)
Chris Duncan (156) vs Bolaji Oki (156)

*Missed weight

UFC Paris:  Ceremonial Weigh In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLb22CmYJgQ

My leans based on the list above...

Moicano
Allen
Brito
Jousset
Charriere
Frevola
Cutelaba
Sy
Klein
Perez
Lapilus
Altamirano
Cavalcanti
Oki

[cabron]

^
Chandler has the KO power to win against Oliveira. The chances of Oliveira surviving Chandler's attack are pretty high just as they had before when Oliviera made it after the first 2 rounds of their fight and overturned the outcome by KO. Even if Chandler brings the fight to the ground, this could lead instead to him getting submitted in the later rounds.  Just my take, Oliveira adapts in every fight.
 
Oliveira by Sub is probably 2.40 this should be a good bet still. That is just my speculation though.