Test Cricket Prediction and Discussion Thread [self - mod]

[bryant.coleman]

England 200/5 - Not looking good for them, I guess with only 2 more days of play it might be a draw.

Mitchell Starc is playing this test and he will wrap up the lower order and tail in quicktime. My prediction is that England will not be able to avoid follow on, and even in case rain intervenes, Australia will get enough time to get the remaining 15 wickets. In case England somehow manages to avoid the follow on, then a draw looks like the most probable result.

Now coming to the AFG vs BAN match, Afghanistan is leading with 188 runs with 7 wickets in hand. IMO, a total of 250 would be enough, considering the strength of the Afghan bowling lineup. They would be aiming for a lead of 350+ though (~210-215 in the second innings). Any target above 250 is going to be difficult for Bangladesh, especially in the fourth innings against bowlers such as Rashid Khan and Mohammad Nabi.

[Haunebu]

- England vs Australia : Am expecting a draw here unless Australia manage to take out the remaining wickets including Stokes quickly. Even if this happens, Australia could still post a big score and this could still end as a draw. Draw is the most likely possibility.

- Ban vs Afg : Am expecting Afghanistan to win this one since a lead close to 300 could be problematic for Bangladesh at the moment.

[virasog]

- England vs Australia : Am expecting a draw here unless Australia manage to take out the remaining wickets including Stokes quickly. Even if this happens, Australia could still post a big score and this could still end as a draw. Draw is the most likely possibility.

- Ban vs Afg : Am expecting Afghanistan to win this one since a lead close to 300 could be problematic for Bangladesh at the moment.

The only way Australian team can win this match is if a miracle happens and the batting line up of England crashes which is very unlikely. That's the only way this match can have any result. Although there are still 2 days left in this test match, but it seems that both Australia and England batting are strong and there is not enough time left for the result.
Also Australia have a little advantage as England have lost 5 wickets at 200 Runs. Can Australia make them all out under 300 ?

[Haunebu]

Also Australia have a little advantage as England have lost 5 wickets at 200 Runs. Can Australia make them all out under 300 ?

As long as Stokes is there, England still have hope in my opinion. England will probably reach 350 or maybe even 400 from here, but Stokes is the key here since he is playing amazing Cricket like Steve Smith currently.

Starc could provide the breakthrough since I remember how he got Stokes in the World cup with a blazing yorker. Lets see what happens.

[Little Mouse]

- Ban vs Afg : Am expecting Afghanistan to win this one since a lead close to 300 could be problematic for Bangladesh at the moment.

Afghanistan is leading with 293 at the moment. It's 3rd day only. If they bat the whole day, a 400 target is possible which will not possible to chase by Bangladesh, almost impossible in 4th innings. If Afghan continue batting tomorrow as well, a possible chance of a drawn is there. I would love to see a drawn  

Eng vs Aus match is certainly going to be drawn since in the 3rd day, still 2nd innings is going on.

[Avirunes]

- Ban vs Afg : Am expecting Afghanistan to win this one since a lead close to 300 could be problematic for Bangladesh at the moment.

Afghanistan is leading with 293 at the moment. It's 3rd day only. If they bat the whole day, a 400 target is possible which will not possible to chase by Bangladesh, almost impossible in 4th innings. If Afghan continue batting tomorrow as well, a possible chance of a drawn is there. I would love to see a drawn  

Eng vs Aus match is certainly going to be drawn since in the 3rd day, still 2nd innings is going on.

400 seems quite difficult considering the batsman left but nowadays bowlers never back down for giving a surprise in test so can't be sure at all. This innings Bangladesh bowling is going quite strong so I don't think Afghanistan will be able to hold enough. There are still 2 days left and it's not quite an impossible target for Bangladesh yet though.

It's just that all the Bangladesh players are going out of form otherwise they are also usually capable of chasing such targets IMO.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Afghanistan leading by 355, with 3 wickets and more than two days remaining. I really doubt whether Bangladesh will be able to chase down anything above 300, as AFG has gone with just one pacer and three spinners (4, if you include Mohammad Nabi as well). They will prove deadly during the next two days. Bangladesh made a huge mistake by making the pitch too much spin-friendly. Ultimately, it backfired on them. You can't do that when you have Rashid Khan on the opposing side. This was something India did when Dhoni was the captain. But the strategy was abandoned after they faced problems overseas.

[Haunebu]

Afghanistan leading by 355, with 3 wickets and more than two days remaining. I really doubt whether Bangladesh will be able to chase down anything above 300, as AFG has gone with just one pacer and three spinners (4, if you include Mohammad Nabi as well). They will prove deadly during the next two days. Bangladesh made a huge mistake by making the pitch too much spin-friendly.

I agree. They let Afghanistan play to their strengths which is their quality spin bowling unit and are staring at a loss here. Afghanistan could easily post a target of something above 400 as long as Zazai continues to bat.

Whoever placed a bet on Afghanistan before the match started must be rejoicing currently. This is an unexpected upset most probably.

[Vishnu.Reang]

The good thing for England is that they have managed to avoid the follow on... They just need 15 more runs, with two wickets in hand. IMO, Australia may end up with a lead of around 150 runs and then they will try to add another 200 runs in the second innings by the end of the day today. England might need 350+ to win, and unless some miracle happens (and some help from the umpires) it is going to be 2-1 for Australia.

[Murat]

Afghanistan is going to win the first-ever test match against Bangladesh. Currently, Afghan is leading by 374 runs and still, 2 wickets are left. I don't expect this Bangladesh team can chase 250 runs on this spin-friendly pitch. Afghanistan bowling attack is so good that Bangladeshi batsmen struggled on the first innings. I will be looking forward to the upcoming T20 Tri-nation series between BD, ZIM & AFG.

[akhjob]

The good thing for England is that they have managed to avoid the follow on... They just need 15 more runs, with two wickets in hand. IMO, Australia may end up with a lead of around 150 runs and then they will try to add another 200 runs in the second innings by the end of the day today. England might need 350+ to win, and unless some miracle happens (and some help from the umpires) it is going to be 2-1 for Australia.

A miracle has to happen for Australia to win this match if England manages to avoid the follow-on. They only need 6 more runs to avoid a follow-on with only 1 wicket in hand. Keep in mind there is only 6 sessions left. Even if AUS manage to get a mammoth lead, ENG will make sure to play the full day tomorrow. So, the chance for AUS to win is to take a wicket now before they score another 6 runs or show some miraculous bowling display tomorrow.

Edit: ENG got past 300 and there will be no follow-on. So this game is more of a draw.

[onrise]

The good thing for England is that they have managed to avoid the follow on... They just need 15 more runs, with two wickets in hand. IMO, Australia may end up with a lead of around 150 runs and then they will try to add another 200 runs in the second innings by the end of the day today. England might need 350+ to win, and unless some miracle happens (and some help from the umpires) it is going to be 2-1 for Australia.

A miracle has to happen for Australia to win this match if England manages to avoid the follow-on. They only need 6 more runs to avoid a follow-on with only 1 wicket in hand. Keep in mind there is only 6 sessions left. Even if AUS manage to get a mammoth lead, ENG will make sure to play the full day tomorrow. So, the chance for AUS to win is to take a wicket now before they score another 6 runs or show some miraculous bowling display tomorrow.

Edit: ENG got past 300 and there will be no follow-on. So this game is more of a draw.

I think match is heading towards draw or maximumm OZ can win. As they suppose even take a lead of 180 odd runs and make 150 runs in 2nd innings which means Engalnd batting 4th will have to make 330 or more runs to chase would never be easy. Considering the time span is now getting closer towards 5th day, so OZ would have to bat quickly to make quick runs and get England all out in a day or so.

[Vishnu.Reang]

The good thing for England is that they have managed to avoid the follow on... They just need 15 more runs, with two wickets in hand. IMO, Australia may end up with a lead of around 150 runs and then they will try to add another 200 runs in the second innings by the end of the day today. England might need 350+ to win, and unless some miracle happens (and some help from the umpires) it is going to be 2-1 for Australia.

A miracle has to happen for Australia to win this match if England manages to avoid the follow-on. They only need 6 more runs to avoid a follow-on with only 1 wicket in hand. Keep in mind there is only 6 sessions left. Even if AUS manage to get a mammoth lead, ENG will make sure to play the full day tomorrow. So, the chance for AUS to win is to take a wicket now before they score another 6 runs or show some miraculous bowling display tommorrow.

Well.. let me make the calculations. 66 overs remaining for today. Let's assume that the England last wicket partnership survives for another 6 overs and the lead is 180 runs. That means 60 overs left for today. Let's assume Australia scores at a rate of 4 runs per over. In order to get a target of 380 runs, they need to score another 200 runs in 50 overs. That means England needs to face Starc & Co. for 10 overs today and 90 overs tomorrow. And I don't think that they have the capability to survive for 100 overs against Starc, Hazlewood and Cummins.

We need to have AI robots as umpires in cricket, not these biased human beings.

It is frustrating actually. They got the advantage two times. First during the world cup final and then during the 3rd test when the LBW appeal was turned down despite the ball hitting the middle stump.

Edit: England blasted out for 301, and the Australian lead is 196 runs. 63 overs remaining today.

[akhjob]

~skip~

Well.. let me make the calculations. 66 overs remaining for today. Let's assume that the England last wicket partnership survives for another 6 overs and the lead is 180 runs. That means 60 overs left for today. Let's assume Australia scores at a rate of 4 runs per over. In order to get a target of 380 runs, they need to score another 200 runs in 50 overs. That means England needs to face Starc & Co. for 10 overs today and 90 overs tomorrow. And I don't think that they have the capability to survive for 100 overs against Starc, Hazlewood and Cummins.

Hmm... Interesting stats. ENG is all out for 301. So AUS managed to get a lead of 196 runs. Let's see how this game turns out to be. Whether it is going to be AUS winning or draw? Who knows maybe ENG will surprise us after all 

[Little Mouse]

It's just that all the Bangladesh players are going out of form otherwise they are also usually capable of chasing such targets IMO.

374 leading at the moment with 2 wickets in hand. 4th innings is barely favorable for the batsman, and you know Rashid Khan may get more dangerous. In addition, it's sad that none of the top order and reliable batsman could stand in the first innings. Hopefully they will come back with a handy form.
Do Australia have any chance left for winning this match? If they can play a t20  and score a 200+ before lunch, may be they can win.

[Avirunes]

Also Australia have a little advantage as England have lost 5 wickets at 200 Runs. Can Australia make them all out under 300 ?

As long as Stokes is there, England still have hope in my opinion. England will probably reach 350 or maybe even 400 from here, but Stokes is the key here since he is playing amazing Cricket like Steve Smith currently.

Starc could provide the breakthrough since I remember how he got Stokes in the World cup with a blazing yorker. Lets see what happens.

With 8 wickets down, I don't think that England will be able to reach even 350 runs in this inning. Aussies are probably gonna succeed in getting a big lead (IMO, it should be about at least 170 to 180 runs of lead), all thanks to Steve Smith.

I feel the same best 320-330 but not that far. Either way this one's gonna end up in a draw for sure.

Smith has always been a mature player. He has developed a lot and I think the last international ban has changed him a lot. So far in this Ashes there are only few names for Australia which kinda defended against England but they kinda made a very big impact.

Seriously, how does Australia always produce so amazing batsmen?

Well it's hard to answer but there is one thing for sure that countries in which county crickets, some form of cricket at domestic level and t-20 leagues really leads to emerging of player with good talents.

It's just that how much chance they are given in international format and going through that how much they develop. It's not their batting they find some good bowling talents as well.

[Vishnu.Reang]

Another poor decision by the umpires in favor of England. Marnus Labuschagne given out LBW despite hawkeye showing that the ball is just touching the bails. Australia in some trouble at 24/3, but Steve Smith is still out there. They are leading by 220 and I guess another 130 runs would be enough to get a 2-1 lead in favor of Australia. On the other hand, if England could get Australia out for 100 or below, then they may be having a real chance.

[7788bitcoin]

The terrible form of Warner continues, third consecutive duck and he got a pair in this match and first time in his career to collect a pair in a match and Board is having his time against Warner. Smith continued his form in the second innings and the rest of the team is struggling to score runs, even though they lost 6 wickets for 176 runs they are having a lead healthy lead of 370 plus runs and i am excited to see when Australia is planning to declare the innings after the last match  .

[FIFA worldcup]

Another poor decision by the umpires in favor of England. Marnus Labuschagne given out LBW despite hawkeye showing that the ball is just touching the bails. Australia in some trouble at 24/3, but Steve Smith is still out there. They are leading by 220 and I guess another 130 runs would be enough to get a 2-1 lead in favor of Australia. On the other hand, if England could get Australia out for 100 or below, then they may be having a real chance.

I think umpires will not be able to save England this time around. We have full fifth day left and England have only 8 wickets in hand. If Aussies can take 2 or more wickets in the first session of the last day, they can easily seal this match in their favor.

[7788bitcoin]

I think umpires will not be able to save England this time around. We have full fifth day left and England have only 8 wickets in hand. If Aussies can take 2 or more wickets in the first session of the last day, they can easily seal this match in their favor.

England have already lost two wickets without scoring a single run on the board and now they have to survive the entire day, i am sure they will not look to win the game rather they will look to play as long as they can and pray that the rain gods will help them to draw the match, from the way things are going it is highly unlikely England will survive the entire day but if they are able to draw the match from this stage it would be another miracle.