Donetsk, Kharkov, Lugansk - way to Russia.

[bryant.coleman]

An Mi-8 Hip of the Ukraine Army on fire in the sky near Kramatorsk, no victims according to military analyst D.Tymchuk.

https://www.facebook.com/dmitry.tymchuk/posts/487532738042053

[Pagan]

In Eastern Ukraine, Terror from Pro-Kremlin Outsiders



For three years now, I’ve been providing a small scholarship to a little girl in the city of Druzhkivka (population: 65,000) in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Province. Her mother, G, has sent me several brief on-the-ground reports of events in Druzhkivka. They convey better than any analysis just what average Ukrainians are experiencing as a result of Vladimir Putin’s promotion of terrorism in eastern Ukraine.
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Bands of outsiders have been terrorizing the city since February 22nd, the day after the triumph of the democratic Euro Revolution in Kyiv and the collapse of the criminal regime of President Viktor Yanukovych. On Saturday, April 12th, armed pro-Russian terrorists seized the Druzhkivka district administration building. Since then, the city has been at the mercy of the pro-Kremlin extremists.

Note a few important points.

G emphasizes that the troublemakers are outsiders, and not residents of the city—a point that journalists and the Ukrainian authorities also make. It’s virtually certain that some of them are Russian intelligence agents and spetsnaz special forces.

She also states that Druzhkivka’s troublemakers, like those of many other provincial cities, enjoy the support of the local mayor. These officials, all members of the pro-Yanukovych Party of Regions, are clearly hoping to use the provocations as a means of holding on to power and escaping prosecution for corruption and other forms of wrongdoing during the years of the Yanukovych regime.

Finally, G underlines that the agents provocateurs are all invoking Vladimir Putin’s bogeyman, the long-deceased Ukrainian nationalist Stepan Bandera, who headed a Ukrainian national liberation movement, the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, in the 1930s–1950s. Significantly, as G notes, no one has ever encountered Bandera supporters in Druzhkivka. Their absence in the rest of Donetsk Province is just as striking. In a word, the terrorists are sowing fear of a non-existent foe in order to keep an uninformed population on edge.

*

February 23, 2014 (two days after Viktor Yanukovych’s flight from Kyiv):

    Long live Ukraine, Alexander!

    I’m happy for Kyiv, proud of western Ukraine, and ashamed of Donetsk Province. What’s taking place in our city today is simply horrible.

    On February 22nd, at 12 noon, on the central square of the city, near the eternal flame, there collected several civilians and one person wearing a Don Cossack uniform. They were holding the flag of the Russian Federation. They also had the black and yellow flag of the Romanov dynasty.

    They were asked who they were, what they were doing, what sort of flags they were carrying, and what their plans were.

    The one on the Don Cossack uniform said that they were defenders of the homeland from the “Banderites.” They were, he said, all members of a Don Cossack organization that was registered in the city. Their general was the city mayor, Valery Hnatenko. They supported the introduction of Russian troops into Ukraine and the annexation of our state by Russia. 

    In the night of February 22nd–23rd, starting at 10 p.m., groups of 3–4 unknown persons trawled the city’s streets, throwing plastic bottles, causing a ruckus, and loudly shouting Long Live Ukraine and that Bandera has finally arrived. There were a few such brigades, and they were evidently drunk. It was clear that they were the little Cossacks headed by our mayor. Another 2,000 people gathered; they were disorganized, drunk, and very aggressive. Some people thought they were defending their town from western Ukrainian “gangs.” Many, mostly older people, came to honor the memory of those who had died [during the Euro Revolution in Kyiv]. They were attacked with eggs. The militia asked that they hide the Ukrainian flag, lest the aggressively inclined participants of the gathering be provoked.

February 23rd:

    Apologies for the convoluted description… The people who supported the ideas of the Maidan no longer feel safe in their own land. What a horror.

March 2nd (two days after Russian troops occupied Crimea):

    I don’t know if you have the opportunity to acquire reliable information about what is currently taking place in eastern Ukraine. As a simple person from the Donbas, I wish to inform everyone I know that unknown people have appeared in many cities of Donetsk Province. They are not residents of these cities, but enjoy the support of local mayors and their machines. They’re attempting to promote separatist ideas and to terrify the population with non-existent western [Ukrainian] extremists whom no one has ever seen.

April 14th (two days after terrorists seized the building of the Druzhkivka district administration):

    Alexander, they will kill us…

*

I haven’t heard from G since that last note. Although I’m sure she and her family are safe, I still shudder at the thought of how terrified she must have been to have expected death—for nothing more than her identity as a Ukrainian in the unremittingly hostile environment created by Putin’s deliberate attempt to create havoc in her country.

    Alexander J. Motyl's blog

http://worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/alexander-j-motyl/eastern-ukraine-terror-pro-kremlin-outsiders

[Nemo1024]

An Mi-8 Hip of the Ukraine Army on fire in the sky near Kramatorsk, no victims according to military analyst D.Tymchuk.

https://www.facebook.com/dmitry.tymchuk/posts/487532738042053

Not "on fire", but "fired upon by persons unknown" from 5.45mm calibre.

[Pagan]

Glimpsing the Frontline in Eastern Ukraine

 Posted by: Andrew S. Weiss Wednesday, April 23, 2014

It seems fair to divide my perceptions of the situation in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine into two periods—before and after my first exposure to the gripping video bulletins from the conflict zone produced by Vice News reporter Simon Ostrovsky. Entitled “Russian Roulette,” Ostrovsky had completed 28 “dispatches” before he was taken into custody on Tuesday by pro-Russian separatists and the self-styled “people’s mayor” of the town of Sloviansk in Donetsk Oblast’.

Efforts to secure his release are ongoing. But the news in recent days from in and around Sloviansk is deeply disturbing. With a handful of political killings and the detentions of both journalists and pro-Kyiv activists, there are fears that the conflict may be getting out of hand.
Weiss is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment, where he oversees research in Washington and Moscow on Russia and Eurasia.

This is the maelstrom that Ostrovsky and his scrappy Vice News crew have been documenting for the past few weeks. Ukraine has proven to be a perfect trial bed for new forms of journalism, and Vice News has quickly moved close to the top of the heap. That is a strong commentary on the quality of the work done by Ostrovsky, whose reporting has been aided by his team’s willingness to portray themselves to the locals as a Moscow-based (that is, sympathetic) news outfit. One hopes that their brash, risk-taking approach has not caught up with them.

Ostrovsky’s style as a journalist and filmmaker is frequently jarring. He puts himself directly into the frame, regularly blurring the distinction between observer and direct participant in the events he is witnessing. In dispatch 26, we see Ostrovsky, decked out awkwardly in flak jacket and a Kevlar helmet, standing in the middle of a provincial police station in Horlivka as pro-Russian militants ransack the place. Suddenly, the portly chief of police, carrying an automatic weapon and dressed for combat, threatens to start shooting the attackers who have trapped him on a stairwell. The camera cuts to Ostrovsky who, we quickly realize, is standing directly next to the police chief on the landing, as the latter tries to talk his way out of the building and to safely. Seconds later, the militants savagely pounce on and attack the police chief, bloodying the same man who was seen throwing a protester off the roof of the police station at the very beginning of the episode. Ostrovsky’s style makes it exceedingly hard to spot the good guys.

Perhaps the most chilling image of Ostrovsky’s recent work is nighttime footage of black-clad Ukrainian special forces personnel taking up positions in alleyways near Luhansk’s occupied city hall. Ostrovsky’s crew encounters these soldiers by accident, and we can see some of them being confronted by representatives of the separatists. The scene ends murkily, without comment, yet leaves the unmistakable impression of an impotent central government, overwhelmed by Russian pressure and unable to control events let alone assert its authority.

This is a new, and in many respects, bleaker version of Ukraine. It certainly is not what one normally encounters in more conventional media outlets. It’s a place where violence seems to erupt unexpectedly, usually in close proximity to the fearless Ostrovsky, or where a 20-something, dreadlocked and bearded Luhansk resident can chuckle when asked how he’d react to his region’s being integrated forcibly back into Russia (“I’d immigrate back to Ukraine”). At root, the viewer’s comfortable frame of reference for the conflict is constantly being challenged by Ostrovsky’s reporting and his seemingly unlimited willingness to put himself in the middle of very dangerous situations. After watching “Russian Roulette,” we know much more about Ukraine yet feel less confident in our understanding.

http://carnegie.ru/eurasiaoutlook/?fa=55410

[bryant.coleman]

lol.... Billary wants more sanctions. I say, bring them on!

Hillary Clinton calls for more sanctions on Putin

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton tells an audience at UConn she believes the outcome in Ukraine will be a bad one for Russia. Clinton, who is considering another run for president, says the United States and Europe need to do more to stand up to the Russian leader and make the cost to invade Ukraine unaffordable. Clinton spoke Wednesday at an issues forum to a group of about 2,300 students, faculty and staff. The talk was not open to the general public.

[Balthazar]

She mean more than zero? Or more than -INF?

[bryant.coleman]

She mean more than zero? Or more than -INF?

Who cares? Consider this as her PR campaign, in preparation for the 2016 POTUS elections. She faces tough challenge from Joe Biden. So she might have thought that it will help her if she acts tough.

[bryant.coleman]

Gunmen attack self-defense forces in eastern Ukraine

http://rt.com/news/154472-gunmen-slavyansk-attack-defense/

Unknown gunmen attack check point near Slavyansk in eastern Ukraine. Two people were killed, local self-defense forces spokesperson told RT.

[Nemo1024]

The leader of People's Republic of Donetsk said that they are not going to conduct presidential elections in their region on the 25th of May, saying "How can we participate in elections that takes places at our neighbours' and not in our country"
http://itar-tass.com/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/1143085?utm_medium=rss20

[bryant.coleman]

The leader of People's Republic of Donetsk said that they are not going to conduct presidential elections in their region on the 25th of May, saying "How can we participate in elections that takes places at our neighbours' and not in our country"

The referendum (on whether to join Russia or to remain with Ukraine) is scheduled on May 11. The presidential elections are 2 weeks after that. By the time of the presidential elections, Donetsk might be officially a part of Russia.

[Balthazar]

I guess that neo-fascists regime capitulation will happen again at 8 May (de facto) / 9 May (de jure). It seems that history is repeating. 

[Nemo1024]

I guess that neo-fascists regime capitulation will happen again at 8 May (de facto) / 9 May (de jure). It seems that history is repeating. 

I really hope so. It looks like this is just the beginning of the West gearing up to invade Russia once again. I'll post my musings in a new topic later. In the meantime, a joke:

- If two battalions of Russian army are sent to Kiev, how many will reach it?
- 10 or 12, in addition to all the local defence forces.

[Paya]

The referendum (on whether to join Russia or to remain with Ukraine) is scheduled on May 11. The presidential elections are 2 weeks after that. By the time of the presidential elections, Donetsk might be officially a part of Russia.

I think that the situation must be calmed down before any sort of regional referendum or country-wide elections should be held. Calling people to vote in this circumstances, when armed groups are shooting at each other cannot yield very realistic results. People on all sides are way too agitated or simply scared, and will vote out of pure frustration and fear rather than using common sense.

[Nemo1024]

The referendum (on whether to join Russia or to remain with Ukraine) is scheduled on May 11. The presidential elections are 2 weeks after that. By the time of the presidential elections, Donetsk might be officially a part of Russia.

I think that the situation must be calmed down before any sort of regional referendum or country-wide elections can be held. Calling people to vote in this circumstances, when armed groups are shooting at each other cannot yield very realistic results.

Agree with you there, but is there any other option? It's a chicken and egg problem. The situation cannot calm down until people see a government that they can call legitimate, and which represents also there interests, and a legitimate government is difficult to form with the country in turmoil.

The situation is very much different from Crimea, where the state of people mind was positive, peaceful, and euphoric with the prospect of finally throwing off Ukrainian 60-year long occupation. South-Eastern regions are, on the other hand, almost in a state of civil war, and they've been under the Ukrainian rule for longer - 96 years. There's much more pent up negative emotion there, ready to explode.

[Paya]

I understand that Nemo, and I am fully aware that general "calming down" before elections/referendum might look like utopia at the moment. In order to achieve that, both sides must comply with what was agreed upon in Geneva: meaning that Kiev should stop military operation and pull back their forces into the bases, and armed pro-Russian rebels should leave occupied objects and disappear from the streets. But truth to be told, this requires good coordination, minimal mutual trust and cool heads, all of which is non-existent as it seems.

[bryant.coleman]

I think that the situation must be calmed down before any sort of regional referendum or country-wide elections should be held. Calling people to vote in this circumstances, when armed groups are shooting at each other cannot yield very realistic results. People on all sides are way too agitated or simply scared, and will vote out of pure frustration and fear rather than using common sense.

I believe that the opposite is true. The separatists are demanding a referendum to be held as soon as possible. If we delay the referendum, it will again result in the upswing in violence. Else, the Kiev junta can promise them a recognized referendum at a later date.

[Balthazar]

There were many messages that eastern citizens won't allow "fake elections" (direct quote) on their territory. Even before all this things happened.

[Paya]

I believe that the opposite is true. The separatists are demanding a referendum to be held as soon as possible. If we delay the referendum, it will again result in the upswing in violence. Else, the Kiev junta can promise them a recognized referendum at a later date.

I see, but... if I remember correctly, referendum should have two questions: 1) are you for creation of Donetsk Republic? 2) Do you want Donetsk Republic to be part of the Ukraine or to join Russia? I mean - in this tense situation majority of the people might hastily vote for joining Russia in hope of direct military help coming across the border. But from everything we saw it is pretty clear that Russia doesn't want to annex Donetsk and it's actually trying really hard to keep its army out of something they're calling internal Ukrainian crisis. Don't you think that these questions are little problematic for Moscow? If the referendum cannot be delayed, could at least the second question be changed?

[bryant.coleman]

But from everything we saw it is pretty clear that Russia doesn't want to annex Donetsk and it's actually trying really hard to keep its army out of something they're calling internal Ukrainian crisis. Don't you think that these questions are little problematic for Moscow? If the referendum cannot be delayed, could at least the second questions be changed?

The questions doesn't matter. Even if the Donetsk protesters want to merge with Russia, the latter don't have the financial resources to make that possible. They just want more autonomy (federalization) and a larger share of the revenue from the coal mines. Tweaking the questions is just a strategy to make Kiev fall in line.

[Paya]

Bryant, basically you're telling that it's something like... I don't know, a trick question? I get it. But do the people in Donetsk who are under tremendeous pressure really see it like that? If Donetsk votes for joining the Russia, which I'm afraid it will, and Russia ignores their wish (which is a must, you gave pretty obvious reasons), I imagine that lot of people will get very disappointed and perhaps even feel betrayed. That's why few days ago I said that Kremlin should make efforts to improve communication with Russian population in eastern Ukraine and to better explain its position to them. They refused to disarm and to leave state buildings, claiming that Lavrov didn't negotiate in their name in Geneva, I think this is very indicative sign of latent troubles in relationship Moscow-Donetsk.