Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[swogerino]

It looks like a gesture of desperation from Biden against the backdrop of empty NATO arsenals. It won't fundamentally change anything on the battlefield, but it could split the ranks of NATO allies, many of whom have already denounced the move, and rob the US of "moral high ground" if it used to be. The use of cluster munitions can be qualified as a war crime.

So, you want to admit that Russia did war crimes by shelling Ukraine with cluster munitions? Or you trying to deny facts that Russia used it in this war or as you call ''special operation?
But as I said, Ukraine didn't ratified convention against cluster munitions, same as USA. And Russia too. So, there is no point ot look for war crimes there.

I want to say what I already said above. Personally, I don’t see a big problem in the supply of cluster munitions from the United States to Ukraine, especially since Ukraine used cluster munitions quite actively before, for example, shelling Donetsk with petal mines or attacking Kramatorsk with Tochka-U missiles with a cluster warhead about a year ago (April 8, 2022 to be exact). You are right, Ukraine, Russia and the US have not ratified this convention. However, many NATO countries have ratified it, such as Great Britain, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, etc. - and from their point of view, this is a war crime.

does not qualify at all as war crime. The use of cluster munitions in civil populated areas is, due to the extreme chance of collateral damage.  Europe do not like them because they are basically a defective product that fails between 5 and 20% and then stay in there for very long.

To give any credit to those claims of previous useI would need some sources as just saying so does not make it so.

On the "desperation" interpretation... I think if they really worked as intended is perfect for clearing trenches, so it is just the right weapon for the taks.

In general, this is a good sign for Russia and for the whole world. There are many signals that there are very active behind-the-scenes negotiations between various participants, one way or another involved in the conflict. I think that with a probability of about 80%, this topic will lose its relevance towards the end of this year in connection with a peaceful settlement between Russia and Ukraine. There is also about a 20% chance that there will be a new phase of escalation in the fall, most likely related to the desire of Poland and the Baltic States to also participate in military operations against Russia. For Russia, this is an acceptable option, it will probably end with new territorial acquisitions. I assess the risk of nuclear escalation with a full-fledged direct confrontation between Russia and NATO as minimal. I assess Ukraine's ability to reverse the unfavorable course of the conflict during the current counter-offensive as zero, I think this counter-offensive has almost completely fizzled out. And there will be no next chance for Ukraine.

If Ukraine strikes a peace deal with Russia then I don't care for all the civilians horribly killed in Bucha,Irpin and Kharkiv as that means that Ukraine does not give the slightest f for all the blood of innocent civilians shed,not talking about military personnel as they live to die in the battlefield,that is their mission.

I don't think Ukraine is as stupid though,they know any peace negotiation with Russia is not at all a peace negotiation,Russia is the greatest liar in the world and they can attack again out of nowhere because they will feel like that,one night an ill imperial fantasy dream will go through the head of many government persons and boom Ukraine under siege again.So I think Ukraine should continue fighting as long as it takes for Victory,Russia can't and they will join NATO,then they will not give a damn anymore what Russia does,only then they will be safe from this evil.

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[BADecker]

Most of that food didn't go to Africa, but to West, so they can triple price before sending it to Africa. Business as usual
Poland farmers were already on a brink of mutiny and unrest over Ukrainian grain
Developing countries people are not as stupid as you think

You're like a small child who gets a dollar for ice cream and a dollar for candy and comes home crying without ice cream or candy. "Why didn't you buy it?". "I forgot which dollar is which". It doesn't matter which grain goes to Africa and which dollars pay for it, as long as the supply is sufficient to keep the price affordable. Real world works differently than Stalin's (or Tito's) five year plan, try to keep up.

As for charitable assistance, Russia has repeatedly stated that it is ready to deliver targeted supplies of wheat and fertilizers to the most needy African countries in the required volume free of charge. No grain deal is needed for this, Russia again had a record grain harvest last year.

Except "russia" is not doing that. Why?

Is Russia sending grain to Africa? A bulk wheat shipment is en route to Africa - https://www.dw.com/en/a-bulk-wheat-shipment-is-en-route-to-africa/a-62869235. The real question is, did Russia poison the grain like the Ukraine is doing with the shipments they export?

Sure, blame Russia for the toxic Ukraine grain. But it is Monsanto practices of spraying poisonous weed killers on the grain. After all, it is Monsanto who along with 2 other companies, bought up 60% of Ukraine farmland.

[LTU_btc]

Meanwhile Turkey agreed to support Sweden bid to join NATO and now Baltic sea basically becomes lake of NATO. First Turkey released Azov commanders, now supported Sweden bid to join NATO. From neutral country now they're turning into unfriendly country for Russia.

https://t.me/vert_i_call/12669

However, many NATO countries have ratified it, such as Great Britain, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, etc. - and from their point of view, this is a war crime.

If these countries who ratified convention would supply cluster bombs to Ukraine, that would be war crime. Now they can be against, they can condemn this decision, but it doesn't really matters.

In general, this is a good sign for Russia and for the whole world. There are many signals that there are very active behind-the-scenes negotiations between various participants, one way or another involved in the conflict. I think that with a probability of about 80%, this topic will lose its relevance towards the end of this year in connection with a peaceful settlement between Russia and Ukraine. There is also about a 20% chance that there will be a new phase of escalation in the fall, most likely related to the desire of Poland and the Baltic States to also participate in military operations against Russia. For Russia, this is an acceptable option, it will probably end with new territorial acquisitions. I assess the risk of nuclear escalation with a full-fledged direct confrontation between Russia and NATO as minimal. I assess Ukraine's ability to reverse the unfavorable course of the conflict during the current counter-offensive as zero, I think this counter-offensive has almost completely fizzled out. And there will be no next chance for Ukraine.

Ok, some random % based on nothing more than personal expectations. So far you weren't doing very well with future predictions, but continue. And dreams about more territorial gains when Russia was taking Bakhum for how long, 10 months? Oh, I forgot, it wasn't even Russia but Wagner.

[Branko]

Most of that food didn't go to Africa, but to West, so they can triple price before sending it to Africa. Business as usual
Poland farmers were already on a brink of mutiny and unrest over Ukrainian grain
Developing countries people are not as stupid as you think

You're like a small child who gets a dollar for ice cream and a dollar for candy and comes home crying without ice cream or candy. "Why didn't you buy it?". "I forgot which dollar is which". It doesn't matter which grain goes to Africa and which dollars pay for it, as long as the supply is sufficient to keep the price affordable. Real world works differently than Stalin's (or Tito's) five year plan, try to keep up.

As for charitable assistance, Russia has repeatedly stated that it is ready to deliver targeted supplies of wheat and fertilizers to the most needy African countries in the required volume free of charge. No grain deal is needed for this, Russia again had a record grain harvest last year.

Except "russia" is not doing that. Why?

I simply have problem with you taking most profit from situation you created, where you did not produce wheat, but your colonial ways produced
hunger in Africa

[paxmao]

Most of that food didn't go to Africa, but to West, so they can triple price before sending it to Africa. Business as usual
Poland farmers were already on a brink of mutiny and unrest over Ukrainian grain
Developing countries people are not as stupid as you think

You're like a small child who gets a dollar for ice cream and a dollar for candy and comes home crying without ice cream or candy. "Why didn't you buy it?". "I forgot which dollar is which". It doesn't matter which grain goes to Africa and which dollars pay for it, as long as the supply is sufficient to keep the price affordable. Real world works differently than Stalin's (or Tito's) five year plan, try to keep up.

As for charitable assistance, Russia has repeatedly stated that it is ready to deliver targeted supplies of wheat and fertilizers to the most needy African countries in the required volume free of charge. No grain deal is needed for this, Russia again had a record grain harvest last year.

Except "russia" is not doing that. Why?

I simply have problem with you taking most profit from situation you created, where you did not produce wheat, but your colonial ways produced
hunger in Africa

So now hunger in Africa is created by "your ways", Africans have nothing to do with it? The fact that many countries in Africa wage war after war and those who do not are under kleptocratic rules is all due to "your ways".

Look, it is time that African countries take responsibility for their own destiny and their situations. If you cannot feed a family of three, why do you keep going until they are seven and then have to live on subsidies from "the evil capitalists". Why people cannot look beyond the "tribes" and try to build countries where they can progress instead of killing each other?

But anyway, if Russia blocks the grain deal and no matter who you choose to blame (Russia cannot do wrong for you, I know, it is all somebody else's fault) the end result will be a famine, mostly in Africa, but not only in Africa. Again, a great diplomatic win.

[suchmoon]

I simply have problem with you taking most profit from situation you created, where you did not produce wheat, but your colonial ways produced
hunger in Africa

I don't know who's "you" but the former colonialists seem to be trying to get that grain going while Putin, the friend of random African dictatorships, keeps holding said grain hostage with these ridiculous negotiations and threats to not allow it to be exported. It shouldn't be subject to negotiations to begin with. It's only a problem because Putin created it, what with the invasion and the deluded imperialist "I own the Black Sea" nonsense.

[Branko]

So now hunger in Africa is created by "your ways", Africans have nothing to do with it? The fact that many countries in Africa wage war after war and those who do not are under kleptocratic rules is all due to "your ways".

Look, it is time that African countries take responsibility for their own destiny and their situations. If you cannot feed a family of three, why do you keep going until they are seven and then have to live on subsidies from "the evil capitalists". Why people cannot look beyond the "tribes" and try to build countries where they can progress instead of killing each other?

But anyway, if Russia blocks the grain deal and no matter who you choose to blame (Russia cannot do wrong for you, I know, it is all somebody else's fault) the end result will be a famine, mostly in Africa, but not only in Africa. Again, a great diplomatic win.

Through neocolonialism, former colonial powers created situation where they continue to occupy Africa through economic means (read John Perkins
book "Economic hitman")...IMF, USAID, weaponized dollar are all neocolonial instruments.
Few countries managed to claw away from such situation, just for their leaders get killed by west, either directly or through
sponsored coups

Examples:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muammar_Gaddafi

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Sankara

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruben_Um_Nyob%C3%A8

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrice_Lumumba

[be.open]

As for charitable assistance, Russia has repeatedly stated that it is ready to deliver targeted supplies of wheat and fertilizers to the most needy African countries in the required volume free of charge. No grain deal is needed for this, Russia again had a record grain harvest last year.

Except "russia" is not doing that. Why?

For example, in order not to sabotage the grain deal. Do you have any idea what it's all about? How could Ukraine sell its grain under this deal if Russia would supply it for free?

Let's go again, Russia is ready to supply free wheat to countries in need if the grain deal is not extended. In other words, the starving countries of Africa will receive for free from Russia all the volume of wheat that fell from the closing of the grain deal. How many tankers Ukraine sent to Africa as part of the grain deal, Russia will send as many tankers free of charge after the cancellation of the deal. Is it clear now?

[OgNasty]

I’m not sure how real this is and I didn’t put in the time to fact check it, maybe one of you want to. However, this is a shacking use of social media type apps to assassinate a rival. Seems almost too far fetched and movie like to be true, but it also seems very plausible and simple to pull off. A good case of social media sites having unintended consequences.

https://twitter.com/stealx/status/1678741923400384512

[paxmao]

So now hunger in Africa is created by "your ways", Africans have nothing to do with it? The fact that many countries in Africa wage war after war and those who do not are under kleptocratic rules is all due to "your ways".

Look, it is time that African countries take responsibility for their own destiny and their situations. If you cannot feed a family of three, why do you keep going until they are seven and then have to live on subsidies from "the evil capitalists". Why people cannot look beyond the "tribes" and try to build countries where they can progress instead of killing each other?

But anyway, if Russia blocks the grain deal and no matter who you choose to blame (Russia cannot do wrong for you, I know, it is all somebody else's fault) the end result will be a famine, mostly in Africa, but not only in Africa. Again, a great diplomatic win.

Through neocolonialism, former colonial powers created situation where they continue to occupy Africa through economic means (read John Perkins
book "Economic hitman")...IMF, USAID, weaponized dollar are all neocolonial instruments.
Few countries managed to claw away from such situation, just for their leaders get killed by west, either directly or through
sponsored coups

Examples:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muammar_Gaddafi

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Sankara

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruben_Um_Nyob%C3%A8

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patrice_Lumumba

Gaddafi? Seriously? Is that like your role model for pacifying and creating progress in Africa? Are you also somehow suggesting that Russia is not colonising where ever they can?

I guess you are too eager to prove your point and do not consider that Russia is a fantastic supporter of dubious characters -simply because they currently do not have any other ideology than raw money. You accuse "you", whoever that is, of colonising, when the former USSR has been keeping half of Europe captive and Putin is now trying the same.

I fail to see any moral superiority whatsoever here.

[TwitchySeal]

As for charitable assistance, Russia has repeatedly stated that it is ready to deliver targeted supplies of wheat and fertilizers to the most needy African countries in the required volume free of charge. No grain deal is needed for this, Russia again had a record grain harvest last year.

Except "russia" is not doing that. Why?

For example, in order not to sabotage the grain deal. Do you have any idea what it's all about? How could Ukraine sell its grain under this deal if Russia would supply it for free?

Let's go again, Russia is ready to supply free wheat to countries in need if the grain deal is not extended. In other words, the starving countries of Africa will receive for free from Russia all the volume of wheat that fell from the closing of the grain deal. How many tankers Ukraine sent to Africa as part of the grain deal, Russia will send as many tankers free of charge after the cancellation of the deal. Is it clear now?

Without grain from Ukraine, there isn't enough grain to feed the world.  When there's a grain shortage, it will always be the poorest countries that are impacted the hardest.  It's a global market, it's really that simple.

They don't have enough grain to begin with, but even if they did, It would be foolish and naive to think Russia is just going to give Africa as much Wheat (one of the few Russian exports that aren't sanctioned) as they need while the price of Wheat is surging and the Ruble is plummeting.

[BADecker]

As for charitable assistance, Russia has repeatedly stated that it is ready to deliver targeted supplies of wheat and fertilizers to the most needy African countries in the required volume free of charge. No grain deal is needed for this, Russia again had a record grain harvest last year.

Except "russia" is not doing that. Why?

For example, in order not to sabotage the grain deal. Do you have any idea what it's all about? How could Ukraine sell its grain under this deal if Russia would supply it for free?

Let's go again, Russia is ready to supply free wheat to countries in need if the grain deal is not extended. In other words, the starving countries of Africa will receive for free from Russia all the volume of wheat that fell from the closing of the grain deal. How many tankers Ukraine sent to Africa as part of the grain deal, Russia will send as many tankers free of charge after the cancellation of the deal. Is it clear now?

Without grain from Ukraine, there isn't enough grain to feed the world.  When there's a grain shortage, it will always be the poorest countries that are impacted the hardest.  It's a global market, it's really that simple.

They don't have enough grain to begin with, but even if they did, It would be foolish and naive to think Russia is just going to give Africa as much Wheat (one of the few Russian exports that aren't sanctioned) as they need while the price of Wheat is surging and the Ruble is plummeting.

Remember that after testing the Ukraine grain, several Nato countries wouldn't accept it because it was toxic. Hey, 'Ukraine grain'. That's got a bit of a ring to it.

[montaga]

The use-by date for that Actor is near.

Dont talk to him, he will ask for Money.

[Branko]

The use-by date for that Actor is near.

Dont talk to him, he will ask for Money.

Seems CIA already briefed some journalists about Zelensky with some juicy info

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLeBb6hPUC8


American soldier defected from Ukraine to Russia

https://www.bitchute.com/video/6gCtjRwdu895/

[Septex]

I don't think the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end easily. Russia maintains war with Ukraine. On the other hand, Russia wants to take some parts of Ukraine for which they are continuing this war. Because if Russia can occupy some part of Ukraine then it is their own gain.

[LTU_btc]

I’m not sure how real this is and I didn’t put in the time to fact check it, maybe one of you want to. However, this is a shacking use of social media type apps to assassinate a rival. Seems almost too far fetched and movie like to be true, but it also seems very plausible and simple to pull off. A good case of social media sites having unintended consequences.

https://twitter.com/stealx/status/1678741923400384512

It's true that he was posting his activities on Strava, you can see profile here https://www.strava.com/athletes/14384072 And it's possible tht it helped to assasinate him. Haven't checked Budanov profile that like this post, but most likely it's fake anddon't really belongs to Budanov.
It's not similar case in this war. There was stories that Ukraine managed to get exact cordinates of Russian bases thanks to post of troops on social media. And then release some HIMARS rockets to it. Something similar happened in Makkivka on New Year's Eve. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/1/3/makiivka-attack-explainer So, it's good example why you should stay away from social media when you at war.

I don't think the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end easily. Russia maintains war with Ukraine. On the other hand, Russia wants to take some parts of Ukraine for which they are continuing this war. Because if Russia can occupy some part of Ukraine then it is their own gain.

Thank you for very interesting and deep insight, you really said something new.

[paxmao]

As for charitable assistance, Russia has repeatedly stated that it is ready to deliver targeted supplies of wheat and fertilizers to the most needy African countries in the required volume free of charge. No grain deal is needed for this, Russia again had a record grain harvest last year.

Except "russia" is not doing that. Why?

For example, in order not to sabotage the grain deal. Do you have any idea what it's all about? How could Ukraine sell its grain under this deal if Russia would supply it for free?

Let's go again, Russia is ready to supply free wheat to countries in need if the grain deal is not extended. In other words, the starving countries of Africa will receive for free from Russia all the volume of wheat that fell from the closing of the grain deal. How many tankers Ukraine sent to Africa as part of the grain deal, Russia will send as many tankers free of charge after the cancellation of the deal. Is it clear now?

Your words are clear. But these are words, not facts - nothing surprising. The RF is going to make many friends blocking the deal if that happens, any grain that goes to countries with regimes that care more about the cash than about their people will end up redirected to the highest bidder. It is one of the cancers eating Africa.

Well, it seems that trolls are insisting on how bad things are for Ukraine and Zelenski and calling this over. The latest package from US says otherwise.

[swogerino]

I don't think the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end easily. Russia maintains war with Ukraine. On the other hand, Russia wants to take some parts of Ukraine for which they are continuing this war. Because if Russia can occupy some part of Ukraine then it is their own gain.

This is the real motive why the war started,the zones in which Russia claim to have been had referendums wanting to go to Russia had only sham referendums and the reality is that they are rich in lithium,yes the substance that makes the batteries for electrical cars,it is a huge market this one and Russia does not want to miss out,they have their ill imperial fantasies since centuries now.The second is that through these parts they can cut Ukrainian grains from shipping from such ports and ship their own grain,in the end every war has invading fantasies that will make the country that does this war richer,it is the same always.

[BADecker]

^^^ Whatever referendums there might have been, or the fact that the US wants to take over Russian lands, it doesn't matter. The reality is that Ukraine is essentially done. The US and Nato lost, even if things drag on for a while.


Does Anyone Care Anymore?


https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/does-anyone-care-anymore
Attention spans are short, and Americans have already moved on to stories about political scandals, the next election, and the usual celebrity glamour gloss. Outside of the U.S. warmonger elites and a few critics (myself included), Americans don't seem to care.

That's a mistake. The war is as hard fought as ever and the geopolitical stakes are even higher than at the start of the war as we keep climbing up the escalation ladder.

Today I'll look at the military situation, the economic sanctions, the bigger picture of global recession, and the impact of the war on energy prices.

Almost nothing in this report is being covered by The New York Times, the Washington Post or other legacy media. Their coverage consists almost exclusively of lies propagated by the State Department, CIA or MI6 and should not be taken seriously except by counterintelligence experts interested in knowing what the U.S. and UK are lying about.

The Counteroffensive Disaster

On the battlefield, Ukraine is losing badly and is in danger of having its offensive military capacity annihilated. The famous Ukrainian spring counteroffensive has met with disaster and been reduced to a series of impotent pinprick attacks.
...

[darkangel11]

The US and Nato lost, even if things drag on for a while.

It depends...
Russia lost more than half of its military. It can retrain soldiers, but most of its modern armament has been lost. Analysts say they've lost its offensive capability for 10-15 years.
They did not reach their goals like taking Kiev, assassinating Zelenskyy and planting their puppet government.
They lost trade deals with Europe and some military deals with countries who saw Russian jets and helicopters being decimated by modern missiles.
The counteroffensive isn't going well, but let's not forget that Russians were surrounding Kiev and now they're hiding in the trenches hundreds of miles to the East.

IMO there's no clear winner or loser here. The war is ongoing and it's not going to stop just like that. This conflict is going to continue for years, pretty much the way it is in Gaza.
Russians effectively pushed Ukraine into the arms of the EU and NATO. If that's a win, I wouldn't want to be the winner.