pooya87
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What people intentionally ignore when talking about Russian oil/gas sales is the amount of money they've already earned this past 9 months from their sales which was way beyond their wildest imaginations and beyond what they could have earned if they never invaded Ukraine. In simple terms even if Russian energy export falls to zero today, they still make profit! This is due to the fact that energy prices soared to the moon and the fact that Europe has been strengthening Russian Ruble preventing it from falling.
I totally agree with you, the Invasion of Ukraine is a two-way strategy to increase wealth from oil. Russia is not a stupid country, they must have learned from their predecessor, namely the Soviet Union which once ran rampant in the world. This ban has been Putin's calculation, of course, Putin will remain confident because most European countries are already dependent on them, it cannot be denied that this is what happened, the sanctions they received from Europe and America did not really affect Russia (in fact, there are benefits behind that). and Russia I noticed now that in the shadow of the global economic recession, Russia still looks stable. Europe is sandwiched in this strategy, on the one hand banning Russian Gas, but on the other hand, they are already dependent on Russian gas. and forced European countries inevitably to buy expensive oil from Russia because they need it. The countries that benefit the most from this ban are gas and oil-producing countries. The main thing here is that America is the world's largest oil producer, followed by Russia and Saudi Arabia. my bad thoughts, are they behind all this? You are right. The way to analyze this current global situation is to look at it as a conflict between two blocs in the world the East and the West not just two countries. In other words this is not so much about Russia "not being a stupid country" or "learning from past" but mostly about the Eastern Bloc working better than the Western Bloc as an alliance; not to mention that the majority of resources are in the East so there is already an upper hand in the East. * In the Eastern bloc when they sanctioned Russia they just replaced those who left their economy with someone else (most of it anyways). For example their gas and oil went to India, China, Pakistan, etc. and even used Iranian channels that were built in the past 4 decades to circumvent sanctions. * But in the Western bloc they are working against each other. For example US keeps printing more money and exports its resulting inflation to its allies in EU crashing their economy while absorbing part of the capital that leaves EU speeding up the de-industrialization of EU. That is while they also sell EU LNG and oil at an extremely high price (while Russia sells it in Eastern bloc at a discount!). As you said "Europe is sandwiched in this strategy". The situation inside the European Union isn't good either. Stronger countries like UK and France and "squeezing" weaker countries like Italy, Greece and Balkans for their own survival.
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DrBeer
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December 23, 2022, 11:01:23 AM |
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Not long ago, Russian propaganda squealed and spat saliva on the topic "Europe will freeze without Russian gas! There is no alternative and there won't be! Replace quickly - it won't work!" Well, we already know that Russian propaganda is a storehouse of fakes ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) The biggest problem was the German economy, in which Russian gas was indeed "highly integrated". But after the economic terror against the EU, these countries realized that they had to part with such an inadequate supplier, and many quickly found a replacement for Russian gas. Germany remained. Her claims about building LNG terminals were met with laughter from Russian TV channels. The next tantrums were on the topic - yes, it will take you decades to build a new gas infrastructure, receive and process LNG .... They laughed ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) Germany's first floating LNG terminal launched In the city of Wilhelmshaven in northwestern Germany, the country's first floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal was launched. The opening ceremony was attended by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who announced the need to build new LNG terminals to fully compensate for energy supplies from Russia. “Our goal is to fully compensate for the loss of Russian gas this year and next... It is necessary to continue building new LNG terminals, as well as agreeing on new supply contracts in the future,” said Mr. Scholz (quoted by Deutsche Welle). The new terminal will start supplying gas to German households on December 22, enough to serve more than 50,000 homes in Germany a year. Olaf Scholz announced the opening of the first German LNG terminals at the end of November. The reform of the German energy sector is aimed at minimizing its dependence on the supply of Russian resources. " https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5681200And now the question is - where will the terrorist country put gas, which was completely and FOREVER abandoned in the EU? Try to dream up! ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) )
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Smack That Ace
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December 23, 2022, 12:30:59 PM |
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my bad thoughts, are they behind all this?
I have an even more mythical thought, the great powers, the governments today are not the greatest force that can decide everything in this world. For me, there is still a larger force that is manipulating them all, crises, wars, or epidemics...people who never appear in the press or are not on the list of citizens of a particular country. Regarding the war between Russia and Ukraine, I think it is not simply a war between two countries, but behind it is the redistribution of profits and power of the tycoons.
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bitgov
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December 23, 2022, 05:12:36 PM |
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my bad thoughts, are they behind all this?
I have an even more mythical thought, the great powers, the governments today are not the greatest force that can decide everything in this world. For me, there is still a larger force that is manipulating them all, crises, wars, or epidemics...people who never appear in the press or are not on the list of citizens of a particular country. Regarding the war between Russia and Ukraine, I think it is not simply a war between two countries, but behind it is the redistribution of profits and power of the tycoons. with this crisis - there are more things and inventions coming forth. People are now more careful about the power consumption. And that is one good point about it
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Smartprofit
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December 23, 2022, 09:26:31 PM |
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...
my bad thoughts, are they behind all this?
I have an even more mythical thought, the great powers, the governments today are not the greatest force that can decide everything in this world. For me, there is still a larger force that is manipulating them all, crises, wars, or epidemics...people who never appear in the press or are not on the list of citizens of a particular country. Regarding the war between Russia and Ukraine, I think it is not simply a war between two countries, but behind it is the redistribution of profits and power of the tycoons. Conspiracy theories are incredibly popular. Their occurrence is absolutely natural. In fact, they replace religion for non-believers. People very often face incredibly complex social and historical processes that cannot be comprehended with the help of modern human thinking (in particular, with the help of logic and the scientific method). Therefore, people use simplified schemes for analysis, thereby trying to fight chaos. I don't know how wars start..... Perhaps a big role in their occurrence is played by people - passionaries and people who know how to manipulate the collective unconscious.
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pooya87
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December 24, 2022, 05:04:40 AM |
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Conspiracy theories are incredibly popular. Their occurrence is absolutely natural. In fact, they replace religion for non-believers.
People very often face incredibly complex social and historical processes that cannot be comprehended with the help of modern human thinking (in particular, with the help of logic and the scientific method).
Therefore, people use simplified schemes for analysis, thereby trying to fight chaos.
Conspiracy theories were invented by governments who wanted to silence whistleblowers and anybody who was criticizing their corrupted moves. Which is why they became popular. For example a couple of years ago whenever anybody criticized the COVID19 vaccines they were branded as crazy conspiracy theorists and today the West is still struggling with the Pandemic and they have tens of thousands of new cases every day with hundreds of deaths in US alone. The most recent one is the Energy Crisis in Europe which people called a "conspiracy theory" and now the crisis is showing its ugly head (eg. the de-industrialization of EU or the 2 hour blackout in London recently).
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Argoo
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December 24, 2022, 04:13:46 PM |
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It is very difficult for China and Russia to cooperate with each other, because they are countries with different cultural codes. The mentality of the Chinese is very different from the mentality of the Russians. The Russians in their mentality and culture are much closer to the Europeans than to the Chinese. In addition, the Russians are very afraid that the Chinese will occupy their territory. There are only 140 million Russians and the population of Russia is constantly declining. The Chinese are 1.5 billion people. China is not even a country, it is a separate powerful civilization. Not only do they not cooperate, I believe they will become closer to each other. You just need to remember that the national interest comes first, once bilateral cooperation generates profits for both parties, the cooperation will not face any obstacles from religion and culture. China needs abundant cheap Russian oil and gas to save production costs, and Russia needs profits from China to sustain its economy and support the war. And if the two countries separate, the US and EU will find a way to destroy each country one by one, forcing both to cooperate. Both are achieving their own interests, so there is no reason not to become close. Nature and higher powers are on the side of Ukraine in this war. The Russian Black Sea Fleet was unable to land troops to capture Odessa, largely because of the storms that began whenever their paratrooper ships went to sea. Iran has started supplying its drones to Russia and has been punished by the great riots that continue to this day and threaten to overthrow their government. China began to establish close trade relations with Russia, which borders on circumventing China's sanctions, and at the end of 2022 was paralyzed by a powerful outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic. In one day, 37 million people fell ill with coronavirus in the country. The Chinese economy is almost completely paralyzed. In fact, today the entire industrial China has stood up. Logistics has stopped, transportation has stopped: everyone is sick. Whoever does not get sick will get sick literally tomorrow. The current events will hit Russia especially hard, whose economy is already weakened by sanctions and critically dependent on supplies from the East. However, this is not Moscow's biggest problem. The fact is that the paralysis of Chinese industry will certainly affect energy prices on world markets. Russia, which lives off the sale of hydrocarbons, will lose more of its income than previously expected. In the last year, China has been one of the key buyers of Russian oil and gas. Now this sales market has been lost almost completely for an indefinite period. The Russians will have to tighten their belts further in 2023.
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serveria.com
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December 24, 2022, 04:54:52 PM |
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The Russians can live a low profile life because that’s how they lived for years. It wouldn’t bother them that much. The Europeans however have been living in luxury for a long time. If they can’t replace the Russian gas and they probably won’t, it may start civil unrests in the European countries. I don’t see Russia losing anything here tbh.
Maybe they won’t be able to purchase the newest iPhones or European made cars but they won’t die of hunger that’s for sure.
On the other hand, if Germany can’t find an alternative to the Russian gas, the impact on their industry will be devastating. France will probably not get affected that much because they mostly rely on nuclear power.
This! The economists never take into account this Russian way of life. They are used to living very frugal, humble, simple life and therefore can live in conditions most westerners would find unbearable. They have cheap heating, electricity and gas. What else would they want? How do I know? My ex-wife is Russian. My wife is Ukrainian. ![Cool](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cool.gif) As to the gas export, don't worry guys, there always will be countries willing to make some profit off gas transit and/or reselling. For example Turkey: their economy is a mess now and they have a nice Russian gas pipe going directly to Istanbul. So what are they going to do? Exactly - pump and resell like there's no tomorrow! China and India will do the same. For sure, they're going to push the price down as low as they can but nothing Putin cannot afford. Just my 2c.
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Dickiy
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December 24, 2022, 05:53:27 PM |
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Europa is really in big trouble, they are the worst affected by this ban, in addition to their crippled energy, Europe can barely run its auto parts industry because of the ban on exports from southeast Asia which is also the largest supplier of nickel to Europa. If Europe does not get energy sources from other countries, such as Arabia or America to meet the needs of its people, there is no other way but to swallow its own saliva and improve relations with Russia to re-stabilize the living ecosystem in Europe. Approaches must be carried out again so that the anger of Russia and Ukraine can be mediated by the presence of their neighbouring countries.
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og kush420
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December 25, 2022, 09:47:44 AM |
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Europa is really in big trouble, they are the worst affected by this ban, in addition to their crippled energy, Europe can barely run its auto parts industry because of the ban on exports from southeast Asia which is also the largest supplier of nickel to Europa. If Europe does not get energy sources from other countries, such as Arabia or America to meet the needs of its people, there is no other way but to swallow its own saliva and improve relations with Russia to re-stabilize the living ecosystem in Europe. Approaches must be carried out again so that the anger of Russia and Ukraine can be mediated by the presence of their neighbouring countries.
People of Ukraine are coming back to their home amid bombing and terror They are seeking shelters in their home and living there lives too - what a pity for them.
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LoyceMobile
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December 25, 2022, 10:22:35 AM |
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What people intentionally ignore when talking about Russian oil/gas sales is the amount of money they've already earned this past 9 months from their sales which was way beyond their wildest imaginations and beyond what they could have earned if they never invaded Ukraine. In simple terms even if Russian energy export falls to zero today, they still make profit! "People" don't ignore it, politicians do. Because it they wouldn't, they couldn't congratulate themselves on how effective their policies are. Paying more for less is only bad for the buyer.
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pooya87
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December 26, 2022, 05:11:52 AM |
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Iran has started supplying its drones to Russia and has been punished by the great riots that continue to this day and threaten to overthrow their government.
It's funny that a small scale protest in Iran that barely reached 50 in participant count and both started and ended months ago is referred to as "overthrowing the government" meanwhile the much bigger scale ongoing protests elsewhere like the 100k protests every week in Germany, the riots and strikes in UK and the chaos in France that looks more like civil war are not even seen ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) "People" don't ignore it, politicians do. Because it they wouldn't, they couldn't congratulate themselves on how effective their policies are. Paying more for less is only bad for the buyer.
That's true but people read and believe what the politicians say in the propaganda towers known as mainstream media and you see it all over their arguments in this topic too.
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Tony116
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December 26, 2022, 06:28:24 AM |
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Europa is really in big trouble, they are the worst affected by this ban, in addition to their crippled energy, Europe can barely run its auto parts industry because of the ban on exports from southeast Asia which is also the largest supplier of nickel to Europa. If Europe does not get energy sources from other countries, such as Arabia or America to meet the needs of its people, there is no other way but to swallow its own saliva and improve relations with Russia to re-stabilize the living ecosystem in Europe. Approaches must be carried out again so that the anger of Russia and Ukraine can be mediated by the presence of their neighbouring countries.
The good news is that they have yet to find an alternative energy source for next winter and their industries. At the moment, they are not to the point of conceding Russia to Russia to supply them with energy, but I believe that will happen soon. The US still supplies them with LNG in large quantities, but at many times more expensive, I don't think they can endure this situation forever. Protests are increasingly widespread in European countries, if the government is only absorbed in retaliation against Russia and forgets the people's suffering, they will soon suffer the consequences.
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Cryptock
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December 26, 2022, 09:41:55 AM |
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Europa is really in big trouble, they are the worst affected by this ban, in addition to their crippled energy, Europe can barely run its auto parts industry because of the ban on exports from southeast Asia which is also the largest supplier of nickel to Europa. If Europe does not get energy sources from other countries, such as Arabia or America to meet the needs of its people, there is no other way but to swallow its own saliva and improve relations with Russia to re-stabilize the living ecosystem in Europe. Approaches must be carried out again so that the anger of Russia and Ukraine can be mediated by the presence of their neighbouring countries.
The good news is that they have yet to find an alternative energy source for next winter and their industries. At the moment, they are not to the point of conceding Russia to Russia to supply them with energy, but I believe that will happen soon. The US still supplies them with LNG in large quantities, but at many times more expensive, I don't think they can endure this situation forever. Protests are increasingly widespread in European countries, if the government is only absorbed in retaliation against Russia and forgets the people's suffering, they will soon suffer the consequences. Human have great mind. And they are known for their adaptability in different situation. We live in the era when people are learning and making DIY things and they are progressing well. The solar panels are also one of the best things man has invented.
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stompix
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December 26, 2022, 12:39:34 PM |
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And here it is, Russia suddenly, realizing that the fingers are out of the pockets through the holes where the shitty rubles were just made an offer to supply Europe with more gas through the Yamal pipeline! https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/25/europe/russia-yamal-europe-gas-pipeline/index.htmlWhy? Simple - they are out of cash, they have gone from surplus to deficit, the gas has nowhere to go as there are not enough pipelines, China is not paying as much and it makes them bear all the cost for infrastructure, and they are not that eager to buy more either - they see that LNG infrastructure is built at an alarming rate in Europe and they see that there is enough LNG so they are desperate to try to sell more to somehow make countries abandon those projects and let LNG exports with unsold inventories - they see that the gas deposits are 83% full at the end of the year, up by 50% compared to last year, they see that Europe will go through winter without a problem so they want to score a point on the last mile to look like they were the ones that saved Europe from freezing, just lame! But, but, that's not even remotely funny as the thing the intergalactic superpower is going through: https://www.iranintl.com/en/202212129010So the biggest gas producer in the known universe is having problems supplying gas to its own industry, shutting down factories, letting power burning mazut, and polluting so much of the capital that it had to close schools As for the profits, they are far more desperate than the Russians, they are actually selling their oil for $37 a barrel: https://www.pishkhan.com/news/287882But no, despite inflation at 50%, the rial going straight to the toilet, it's the evil west that will fall, looooool!!!! ![Grin](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/grin.gif) And it doesn't stop here, it gets even funnier, a perfect example of how brainwashed propagandists fall into their own trap. So, according to this guy, there is no mass protest in Iran: It's funny that a small scale protest in Iran that barely reached 50 in participant count
Yet, their own central bank governor is blaming the fall of the currency on the protest: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-central-bank-governor-blames-protests-currencys-fall-2022-12-17/So it is either that 50 people protesting in the streets have sent a currency in a death spiral, or, someone is just lying, lying and lying, over and over again.
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Dickiy
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
December 26, 2022, 01:09:56 PM |
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Europa is really in big trouble, they are the worst affected by this ban, in addition to their crippled energy, Europe can barely run its auto parts industry because of the ban on exports from southeast Asia which is also the largest supplier of nickel to Europa. If Europe does not get energy sources from other countries, such as Arabia or America to meet the needs of its people, there is no other way but to swallow its own saliva and improve relations with Russia to re-stabilize the living ecosystem in Europe. Approaches must be carried out again so that the anger of Russia and Ukraine can be mediated by the presence of their neighbouring countries.
The good news is that they have yet to find an alternative energy source for next winter and their industries. At the moment, they are not to the point of conceding Russia to Russia to supply them with energy, but I believe that will happen soon. The US still supplies them with LNG in large quantities, but at many times more expensive, I don't think they can endure this situation forever. Protests are increasingly widespread in European countries, if the government is only absorbed in retaliation against Russia and forgets the people's suffering, they will soon suffer the consequences. Human have great mind. And they are known for their adaptability in different situation. We live in the era when people are learning and making DIY things and they are progressing well. The solar panels are also one of the best things man has invented. Yes, maybe it's true that humans can make something from DIY creations to fulfil their need for energy scarcity. The European community must innovate regarding the energy generation they need now. regarding the solar panels that you are talking about as an alternative to cover needs, indeed this is one solution for now but what must be considered is the bad impact that can pollute the environment from the use of solar panels, as long as you know the materials for making solar cells contain harmful chemicals such as Cadmium which easily dissolves in water and the water will pollute the environment in its path (especially if solar panels are used massively and waste disposal is not taken care of). This will be very dangerous because if the water is polluted, the sustainability of life in Europe will get worse because water is a source of life.
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coupable
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December 26, 2022, 01:52:21 PM |
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Iran has started supplying its drones to Russia and has been punished by the great riots that continue to this day and threaten to overthrow their government.
It's funny that a small scale protest in Iran that barely reached 50 in participant count and both started and ended months ago is referred to as "overthrowing the government" meanwhile the much bigger scale ongoing protests elsewhere like the 100k protests every week in Germany, the riots and strikes in UK and the chaos in France that looks more like civil war are not even seen ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) It is absurd to think that the protests in Iran can lead to the overthrow of the regime so easily. It is also absurd to think that Western countries support these protests because Iran has provided Russia with drone fighters. But at the same time, it cannot be denied that Iran is witnessing an unprecedented wave of protests, which was confirmed by the Iranian authorities themselves when they announced some time ago measures to review the law on wearing the veil for women after a decision to abolish the morality police. On the other hand, supplying Russia with drone fighters does not mean that Russia and Iran are on the same front against Western countries, because Russia does not support Iran in its nuclear program.
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kro55
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December 26, 2022, 02:24:29 PM |
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On the other hand, supplying Russia with drone fighters does not mean that Russia and Iran are on the same front against Western countries, because Russia does not support Iran in its nuclear program.
But so far, there has not been any concrete evidence of Iran supplying UAVs to Russia. As far as I know, these are all accusations by Ukraine and the EU, and Iran has also repeatedly denied them because EU has not provided evidence. The EU and the US seem to have exhausted their arms support for Ukraine and are looking for every excuse to blame their weakness. It's funny when 29 countries are fighting a country with absurd sanctions and a bunch of supposedly modern weapons that still do nothing to Russia.
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DrBeer
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December 26, 2022, 02:59:08 PM |
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While the supporters of the Russian world, in their inflamed brain, are inventing new excuses for the situation and inventing explanations that this is another "victory of the Russian Federation", the hydrocarbon market understood the vector and decided to turn towards lower prices, regardless of the tantrums from the Kremlin. The ruble, as expected, began to fall, now we are really seeing pathetic attempts to artificially hold it back in order to keep the fake about "ruble stability" afloat. China, Greece and other countries with large fleets of oil tankers have denied Russian terrorists transportation services. URALS oil has already fallen below the limit price set in the EU ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) A new outbreak of covid in China will most likely lead to the fact that China will stop buying, for a penny, the surplus oil that was formed in large quantities from Russia, which will lead to an even greater collapse in the price of Urals. The US Congress passed a law on the seizure of the assets of Russian oligarchs who fell under sanctions (including assets where they are the ultimate beneficiaries) for further transfer to Ukraine as reparations! ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) This is only information "from the surface", and how many decisions are not yet public - you can't even imagine ....
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DrBeer
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December 26, 2022, 03:28:27 PM |
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On the other hand, supplying Russia with drone fighters does not mean that Russia and Iran are on the same front against Western countries, because Russia does not support Iran in its nuclear program.
But so far, there has not been any concrete evidence of Iran supplying UAVs to Russia. As far as I know, these are all accusations by Ukraine and the EU, and Iran has also repeatedly denied them because EU has not provided evidence. The EU and the US seem to have exhausted their arms support for Ukraine and are looking for every excuse to blame their weaknesses. It's funny when 29 countries are fighting a country with absurd sanctions and a bunch of supposedly modern weapons that still do nothing to Russia. Don't be offended, but you: or deliberately distort reality either do not own situations, have not studied the issue or both ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) And now the explanation: 1. After the first, well-reasoned accusations of Iran in support of Russian terrorism, Iran officially denied it. And then they found a "way out" - the head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry OFFICIALLY stated that yes, they delivered, but it was like not in October, but earlier and they say in general "no more than 400 pieces" ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) But in Ukraine, more than 500 of them have already been shot down (from open sources) and attempts at new attacks continue all the time... 2. In Ukraine, more than 75% of these, as we call them "mopeds", are knocked down (they have a characteristic whine due to the two-stroke engine used). And accordingly, there are a lot of wreckage. I personally participated in the dismantling of such devices (I am a citizen of Ukraine, I take part in some actions as a technical specialist). And believe me - there is clear evidence of the country at least assembling these apparatuses. This is not Russia. Moreover - in Russia, due to its technological backwardness, all attempts to create something similar - ended in failure. Well, plus 100% compliance of devices called "Geran" (Russian high-tech refinement - replacing the inscription on the body of the device ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) ) to the appearance, and to all other available data, of the Shahed 136 model. 3. Indirect confirmation - as soon as the UN raised the issue of an international commission to investigate the UAV wreckage in Ukraine, guess who squealed wildly and started spitting and yelling "no! no and again no"? That's right Russia and Iran ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif) The question is - if Iran were honest - would it become so hysterical? It would be more profitable for Iran to say - ok, let's even help and provide partial technical documentation to make it clear - we do not support bastard regimes, we do not kill civilians in Ukraine, we are honest! But no - they began to hide and resist such an investigation. So they know whose Geranium / Shaheda https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/05/middleeast/iran-drones-russia-intl/index.htmlhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/10/iranian-made-drones-supplied-to-russia-after-february-invasion-says-ukrainePS Cowardice and meanness are the fundamental driving forces of terrorism
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