who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections?

[Gyfts]

^^^^ 258 million views for the interview with Tucker Carlson. 1.5 million likes 216 million views for the mugshot tweet. Donald Trump for sure has some solid backing in social media platforms. I am not sure whether DeSantis and Ramaswamy (who I believe are the only other two candidates with even a remote chance of winning the GOP nomination) should continue with their presidential run, given the recent poll numbers and also looking at how Trump is completely dominating the GOP space. Shouldn't they try to get a VP spot this time?

It's 200M plus impressions, not views. I had made the distinction in my previous post because the Fox debate had something like 15M viewers, whereas the Tucker Carlson interview had gotten ~15 views. Not every impression translated to a view, and viewers on TV networks are worth more than a view on social media.

DeSantis would not serve as Trump's VP. They've clashed too many times and DeSantis's political career would be polluted by Trump.

Vivek is playing for a VP spot or some position in Trump's administration. I don't see him as a serious candidate.

His odds on the betting market have went down as of lately: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting-odds/2024/president/

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[Casdinyard]

The big question was whether Trump would benefit from the conviction drama or not. And I guess we have the definite answer by now. An array of opinion pollsters are now showing Donald Trump with a big lead over Joe Biden in nation-wide polling. The one from Emerson puts Trump at 46%, compared to 44% for Biden, while the poll from New York Post has Trump ahead by 3 points (Biden-41%, Trump-44%). Biden had a comfortable lead two weeks ago, but the situation has now reversed. Still, it would be premature to reach a conclusion. We need to wait for a few more weeks to see whether the poll numbers stay the same.

Could paint him as the hero or not, to his die-hard fans, it sure would portray him as some beaten hero that needs the public's outcry to be released and be allowed to serve again. To everyone who has a little bit of common sense left to them, they'd see this candidacy of his as the spitting image of disrespect to American democracy. How great would it be for someone that's a convicted individual to have a place in the highest seat of power in the country?

If things go well, which they rarely do, we might see a new face in the white house, if not then I guess every country that is america or is allied to it is fucked royally, no way around it honestly.

[Hispo]

Got a question for you guys.
Does anyone one of you know someone in real life who knows as much foreign politics as you do? If so, have you considered to bet personally with people know you regarding this incoming USA elections?

In my case, there are some people I know who are pretty much into international politics and the American situation, so I have seriously toyed with the idea on betting against them on this election, besides going with casino options. It would not be as much money as I would trust a reputable casino or betting platform, though.

has anyone there considered to do the same thing with family members, friends or co workers?

[Sithara007]

Got a question for you guys.
Does anyone one of you know someone in real life who knows as much foreign politics as you do? If so, have you considered to bet personally with people know you regarding this incoming USA elections?

In my case, there are some people I know who are pretty much into international politics and the American situation, so I have seriously toyed with the idea on betting against them on this election, besides going with casino options. It would not be as much money as I would trust a reputable casino or betting platform, though.

has anyone there considered to do the same thing with family members, friends or co workers?

Hmm... interesting idea. But where I live, I hardly find anyone with adequate knowledge on topics in which I place my bets. And even when I find someone, almost always that individual is against the idea of placing bets (here in India, gambling is de jure illegal). And also, betting one to one may not be a good idea. It can be done, if a reliable third party acts as an escrow. But if that is not the case, there is no guarantee that the person who loses the bet will honor the previous agreement and pay up. This has happened to me once, so I know how complicated it is going to be.

[beerlover]

I do not know how much it will influence the result of this US election but still, if anyone is betting on the election, he can take this factor into account as well.

Biden administration has progressively brought back the policy of forced regime change in third world nations, something that was abandoned during the Trump regime (2016-20). And they have intervened not just in Pakistan, but also in several other countries. That said, I am not sure whether the protest by Americans of Pakistani origin will have any impact. As far as I know, there are sections of people who are in favor of the Imran Khan regime, however there are also sizable numbers who favor the current regime (headed by Shehbaz Sharif of the PML-N).

As long as USA keeps on interfering with other nations, I will keep on disliking them. That is such a terrible thing to do, let people be ruled however they want in their own nation, even if it is a dictatorship, if they are so brave about going to nations and "bringing democracy" to a nation, I would love to see them try that with China, they won't because that would be a nation that could fire back. They find these poorer nations and destabilize them, make money from it and just leave it to hell.

No nation that USA ever attacked got better after the attack, look at Iraq, they were terrible before them, and even worse after them, look at Afghanistan ffs, they are literally ruled by idiots. So whenever USA attacks somewhere, it is wrong, I don't care what reason they may provide.

[Hispo]

Got a question for you guys.
Does anyone one of you know someone in real life who knows as much foreign politics as you do? If so, have you considered to bet personally with people know you regarding this incoming USA elections?

In my case, there are some people I know who are pretty much into international politics and the American situation, so I have seriously toyed with the idea on betting against them on this election, besides going with casino options. It would not be as much money as I would trust a reputable casino or betting platform, though.

has anyone there considered to do the same thing with family members, friends or co workers?

Hmm... interesting idea. But where I live, I hardly find anyone with adequate knowledge on topics in which I place my bets. And even when I find someone, almost always that individual is against the idea of placing bets (here in India, gambling is de jure illegal). And also, betting one to one may not be a good idea. It can be done, if a reliable third party acts as an escrow. But if that is not the case, there is no guarantee that the person who loses the bet will honor the previous agreement and pay up. This has happened to me once, so I know how complicated it is going to be.

Oh really? I had no idea gambling/betting was de jure illegal in India, I thought it had relatively similar laws as other Asian countries.
Leaving that to one side, if you have had bad experiences with those person to person bets, then I would certainly not recommend you to try again, its ones money which is at stake, after all.

By the way, I know that India is a big country and certainly is centered around national issues and politics, however there is so many people there that it is just a matter of statistics to find another person like you, who is well informed about geopolitics and how it can affect your own society, after all, India and the USA have been commercial partner for a very long time. 

[nullama]

Got a question for you guys.
Does anyone one of you know someone in real life who knows as much foreign politics as you do? If so, have you considered to bet personally with people know you regarding this incoming USA elections?

In my case, there are some people I know who are pretty much into international politics and the American situation, so I have seriously toyed with the idea on betting against them on this election, besides going with casino options. It would not be as much money as I would trust a reputable casino or betting platform, though.

has anyone there considered to do the same thing with family members, friends or co workers?

But how do you actually bet with normal people?

Like, how do you actually enforce the payment?

Usually these people are probably your friends, so you will end up losing the friends and the money.

[FanEagle]

To be fair betting is illegal in many nations, but we still do it thanks to crypto without letting our governments know about it. It's finding people who know about politics that is hard. Like for example if I told anyone what they think about this Georgia governor situation, they wouldn't know a single thing about it and wouldn't even know why I am asking that. They do know Trump and Biden because they are/were president of USA, knowing them is easy.

But, most wouldn't even know who Bernie Sanders is. This is why I think it's very tough to find people to talk about this. These topics are great, we could at least use our information regarding the politics of USA as well as we possibly could, and that's the important part.

[Hispo]

Got a question for you guys.
Does anyone one of you know someone in real life who knows as much foreign politics as you do? If so, have you considered to bet personally with people know you regarding this incoming USA elections?

In my case, there are some people I know who are pretty much into international politics and the American situation, so I have seriously toyed with the idea on betting against them on this election, besides going with casino options. It would not be as much money as I would trust a reputable casino or betting platform, though.

has anyone there considered to do the same thing with family members, friends or co workers?

But how do you actually bet with normal people?

Like, how do you actually enforce the payment?

Usually these people are probably your friends, so you will end up losing the friends and the money.

It is kind of easy just to find some trusted third party to serve as escrow, besides usually it is easier to bet with co workers than friends, since both people share paydays and know it is very unlikely they will just quit a job to run away from a bet debt.

Actually, at work I have seen people (including the very boss) to set bets with other employees, they always comply. I don't know, perhaps I just interact with people who are used to honor their debts and bets, It may be the exception and not a general rule.

To be fair betting is illegal in many nations, but we still do it thanks to crypto without letting our governments know about it. It's finding people who know about politics that is hard. Like for example if I told anyone what they think about this Georgia governor situation, they wouldn't know a single thing about it and wouldn't even know why I am asking that. They do know Trump and Biden because they are/were president of USA, knowing them is easy.

But, most wouldn't even know who Bernie Sanders is. This is why I think it's very tough to find people to talk about this. These topics are great, we could at least use our information regarding the politics of USA as well as we possibly could, and that's the important part.

Even if Bitcoin was not a thing, people would continue to bet and gamble underground with FIAT. It is quite difficult activity to enforce in reality.

Also, I can understand people around you do not care about politics as you do, it happens around here as well. But people in India are still interested on national politics or they prefer to focus on daily problems which are not as transcendental as geopolitics? Is the average Indian fellow not into politics?

[STT]

Betting vs people you know in real life on politics is just asking for trouble.  If they were perfectly level headed then sure but losing both the election and a bet on it, this means likely a big argument.   You will never hear the end of it and thats not worth the money.    I wouldnt do it personally.

DeSantis   is only 44, thats incredibly young imo for a person to run for President, I know its possible but still on the extremes of what normally occurs.   DeSantis  will not hitch his wagon to Trumps fate in his last few years, he might play the game of trying to get Trump supporters to see him as a successor of sorts but theres only so far I think he wants any association with that flaming barrel of oil which is Trump campaign, good or bad its not a good idea in risk terms and Im sure his staff have told him as much.
  I think the odds of and whole Trump idea peaks and then declines, even Trump himself likely does not truly want the job & office mostly just the avoidance of charges it might allow.

[bittraffic]

Got a question for you guys.
Does anyone one of you know someone in real life who knows as much foreign politics as you do? If so, have you considered to bet personally with people know you regarding this incoming USA elections?

In my case, there are some people I know who are pretty much into international politics and the American situation, so I have seriously toyed with the idea on betting against them on this election, besides going with casino options. It would not be as much money as I would trust a reputable casino or betting platform, though.

has anyone there considered to do the same thing with family members, friends or co workers?

But how do you actually bet with normal people?

Like, how do you actually enforce the payment?

Usually these people are probably your friends, so you will end up losing the friends and the money.

It is kind of easy just to find some trusted third party to serve as escrow, besides usually it is easier to bet with co workers than friends, since both people share paydays and know it is very unlikely they will just quit a job to run away from a bet debt.

Actually, at work I have seen people (including the very boss) to set bets with other employees, they always comply. I don't know, perhaps I just interact with people who are used to honor their debts and bets, It may be the exception and not a general rule.

To be fair betting is illegal in many nations, but we still do it thanks to crypto without letting our governments know about it. It's finding people who know about politics that is hard. Like for example if I told anyone what they think about this Georgia governor situation, they wouldn't know a single thing about it and wouldn't even know why I am asking that. They do know Trump and Biden because they are/were president of USA, knowing them is easy.

But, most wouldn't even know who Bernie Sanders is. This is why I think it's very tough to find people to talk about this. These topics are great, we could at least use our information regarding the politics of USA as well as we possibly could, and that's the important part.

Even if Bitcoin was not a thing, people would continue to bet and gamble underground with FIAT. It is quite difficult activity to enforce in reality.

Also, I can understand people around you do not care about politics as you do, it happens around here as well. But people in India are still interested on national politics or they prefer to focus on daily problems which are not as transcendental as geopolitics? Is the average Indian fellow not into politics?

Why not just bet on platforms and not against someone you know personally? Politics is a very sensitive topic for people, I don't even wanna talk about it with elders who are die-hard fans and constantly hitting Trump. Politics always spoils a barbeque party and you may not be able to enforce payment when betting on an election with them. Unless you bet against a Lannister. 

This is interesting for Indians I believe because of Ramaswamy or Kamala but most of all the geopolitics which Modi had been playing around on 2 super powers.

[Hispo]

Got a question for you guys.
Does anyone one of you know someone in real life who knows as much foreign politics as you do? If so, have you considered to bet personally with people know you regarding this incoming USA elections?

In my case, there are some people I know who are pretty much into international politics and the American situation, so I have seriously toyed with the idea on betting against them on this election, besides going with casino options. It would not be as much money as I would trust a reputable casino or betting platform, though.

has anyone there considered to do the same thing with family members, friends or co workers?

But how do you actually bet with normal people?

Like, how do you actually enforce the payment?

Usually these people are probably your friends, so you will end up losing the friends and the money.

It is kind of easy just to find some trusted third party to serve as escrow, besides usually it is easier to bet with co workers than friends, since both people share paydays and know it is very unlikely they will just quit a job to run away from a bet debt.

Actually, at work I have seen people (including the very boss) to set bets with other employees, they always comply. I don't know, perhaps I just interact with people who are used to honor their debts and bets, It may be the exception and not a general rule.

To be fair betting is illegal in many nations, but we still do it thanks to crypto without letting our governments know about it. It's finding people who know about politics that is hard. Like for example if I told anyone what they think about this Georgia governor situation, they wouldn't know a single thing about it and wouldn't even know why I am asking that. They do know Trump and Biden because they are/were president of USA, knowing them is easy.

But, most wouldn't even know who Bernie Sanders is. This is why I think it's very tough to find people to talk about this. These topics are great, we could at least use our information regarding the politics of USA as well as we possibly could, and that's the important part.

Even if Bitcoin was not a thing, people would continue to bet and gamble underground with FIAT. It is quite difficult activity to enforce in reality.

Also, I can understand people around you do not care about politics as you do, it happens around here as well. But people in India are still interested on national politics or they prefer to focus on daily problems which are not as transcendental as geopolitics? Is the average Indian fellow not into politics?

Why not just bet on platforms and not against someone you know personally? Politics is a very sensitive topic for people, I don't even wanna talk about it with elders who are die-hard fans and constantly hitting Trump. Politics always spoils a barbeque party and you may not be able to enforce payment when betting on an election with them. Unless you bet against a Lannister.  

This is interesting for Indians I believe because of Ramaswamy or Kamala but most of all the geopolitics which Modi had been playing around on 2 super powers.

It is a personal thing, I assume. I think it is more fun to engage in a political bet with someone you can personally deal face to face, it does not have to be politics, in general when comes also to sport betting I can imagine all of us has been in a situation where a friend says a team is going to easily win, but we consider that team to be pretty bad, so a chance to bet against each other ensues. It is pretty common and it would be even more common if people were more honest and honored their debts.  

I am not saying that it is for everyone, of course, specially those who like to keep a low profile on their gambling and betting activities, it is better for them just to stay in their favorite platform. Though, if I can, I will likely bet on this incoming USA election with some people I have met lately and who are passionate enough to put their money where their mouth is. Let us see who all turns out.  

[LUCKMCFLY]

I do not know how much it will influence the result of this US election but still, if anyone is betting on the election, he can take this factor into account as well.

Biden administration has progressively brought back the policy of forced regime change in third world nations, something that was abandoned during the Trump regime (2016-20). And they have intervened not just in Pakistan, but also in several other countries. That said, I am not sure whether the protest by Americans of Pakistani origin will have any impact. As far as I know, there are sections of people who are in favor of the Imran Khan regime, however there are also sizable numbers who favor the current regime (headed by Shehbaz Sharif of the PML-N).

As long as USA keeps on interfering with other nations, I will keep on disliking them. That is such a terrible thing to do, let people be ruled however they want in their own nation, even if it is a dictatorship, if they are so brave about going to nations and "bringing democracy" to a nation, I would love to see them try that with China, they won't because that would be a nation that could fire back. They find these poorer nations and destabilize them, make money from it and just leave it to hell.

No nation that USA ever attacked got better after the attack, look at Iraq, they were terrible before them, and even worse after them, look at Afghanistan ffs, they are literally ruled by idiots. So whenever USA attacks somewhere, it is wrong, I don't care what reason they may provide.

What happens is that the USA has Always been Characterized by Showing Strength, when they have attacked they have shown Only part of their arsenal and it Seems that gives them more repute worldwide and so what intrigues me the most is that when they do it like this, so there is no violation of human rights, they do not ban the USA or go , so I am not one of Those who likes Violence under any aspect, neither from the USA nor from any Country that has a strong arsenal, because I believe that things are not they are fixed under the influence of who is stronger and who is not , I think that things Should be fixed in another way, right now what is very Fashionable is to ban several countries just because they did not Participate in the 2nd World war , Something that It seems absurd to me, so in this order of ideas things can happen as they are , but I am not in favor of that , now the USA with Biden I think what I like the most is that he is not a person who Seeks wars , he is not Involved in They don't even want to do them to anyone, they avoid them, during Trump's mandate he gets along well with Putin, which was somewhat Controlled , so now the Conflict between Ukraine and Russia is something that I don't Accept.

Now, we are people who have Currently seen Everything that has happened with respect to Trump and everything that many Politicians have Attacked him , we know that in the USA everything is Managed based on Powers , if someone is a friend of a Head of an Organization , A simple favor to be done to him, just call Trump to appear before a judge, because that's the way things are, well, not only in the USA but in any part of the world it is like that , Apart from the fact that Trump made a terrible mistake by taking documentation from nuclear nature to his Residence and things Cannot be done that Way, Because it is a very big sin , and they can lend themselves to many things, some may claim that he is a spy to be able to pass information to another country, things can be seen that way It is normal, because als things can be given to think whatever.

[Betwrong]

Got a question for you guys.
Does anyone one of you know someone in real life who knows as much foreign politics as you do? If so, have you considered to bet personally with people know you regarding this incoming USA elections?

In my case, there are some people I know who are pretty much into international politics and the American situation, so I have seriously toyed with the idea on betting against them on this election, besides going with casino options. It would not be as much money as I would trust a reputable casino or betting platform, though.

has anyone there considered to do the same thing with family members, friends or co workers?

A friend of a friend of mine was saying Trump would win the election and I was saying no way, Hillary would win. It was long time ago, back in the 2016. I was so confident that I accepted his bet, $100(I was a bit drunk), and was expecting to win the money. We all know what happened. Since then I'm betting only what I can afford to lose even if I "know" the outcome "for sure". And don't gamble when you are drunk, guys.

[nullama]

~snip~
A friend of a friend of mine was saying Trump would win the election and I was saying no way, Hillary would win. It was long time ago, back in the 2016. I was so confident that I accepted his bet, $100(I was a bit drunk), and was expecting to win the money. We all know what happened. Since then I'm betting only what I can afford to lose even if I "know" the outcome "for sure". And don't gamble when you are drunk, guys.

Yeah, I think most people were not expecting Trump to be president back then.

Now it's a different story because there's a precedent.

We will have to simply wait and see what happens.

This has more twists than a Venezuelan telenovela.

[Hispo]

~snip~
A friend of a friend of mine was saying Trump would win the election and I was saying no way, Hillary would win. It was long time ago, back in the 2016. I was so confident that I accepted his bet, $100(I was a bit drunk), and was expecting to win the money. We all know what happened. Since then I'm betting only what I can afford to lose even if I "know" the outcome "for sure". And don't gamble when you are drunk, guys.

Yeah, I think most people were not expecting Trump to be president back then.

Now it's a different story because there's a precedent.

We will have to simply wait and see what happens.

This has more twists than a Venezuelan telenovela.

The thing is that Trump back then had the advantage of facing Hillary, who is a despicable character within the American politics, to be honest. Even democrats were aware of her being the lesser of two evils, added to the long tradition of the presidency of the United States being a position for men and not women.

Whether the American left wants to admit it or not, the average person there is not yet prepared to give their vote of confidence to a woman, so back in 2020 they went with Biden for the nomination. I have seen people around internet talking about the possibility of Kamala Harris nomination for the democrat party in the future, but that is very unlikely, the party wont risk another 2016 situation in the expected future, specially with the tendency of the Republican party to push forward men. Trump happens to be the most eccentric and  populist of them in these latest years, breaking precedent after precedent.

[nullama]

~snip~
The thing is that Trump back then had the advantage of facing Hillary, who is a despicable character within the American politics, to be honest. Even democrats were aware of her being the lesser of two evils, added to the long tradition of the presidency of the United States being a position for men and not women.

Whether the American left wants to admit it or not, the average person there is not yet prepared to give their vote of confidence to a woman, so back in 2020 they went with Biden for the nomination. I have seen people around internet talking about the possibility of Kamala Harris nomination for the democrat party in the future, but that is very unlikely, the party wont risk another 2016 situation in the expected future, specially with the tendency of the Republican party to push forward men. Trump happens to be the most eccentric and  populist of them in these latest years, breaking precedent after precedent.

Maybe....

But you could have said the same thing about Obama, and the people of the US not prepared to vote for a black man for president... yet, it happened.

Also, many people never believed that Trump would be elected, and yet, he was elected.

Anything can happen in the US elections really.

[Hispo]

~snip~
The thing is that Trump back then had the advantage of facing Hillary, who is a despicable character within the American politics, to be honest. Even democrats were aware of her being the lesser of two evils, added to the long tradition of the presidency of the United States being a position for men and not women.

Whether the American left wants to admit it or not, the average person there is not yet prepared to give their vote of confidence to a woman, so back in 2020 they went with Biden for the nomination. I have seen people around internet talking about the possibility of Kamala Harris nomination for the democrat party in the future, but that is very unlikely, the party wont risk another 2016 situation in the expected future, specially with the tendency of the Republican party to push forward men. Trump happens to be the most eccentric and  populist of them in these latest years, breaking precedent after precedent.

Maybe....

But you could have said the same thing about Obama, and the people of the US not prepared to vote for a black man for president... yet, it happened.

Also, many people never believed that Trump would be elected, and yet, he was elected.

Anything can happen in the US elections really.

Obama was quite a very likeable politician, to be honest.
Granted, his skin color raised several comments among voters, but even those within the Democrat party who were not ready to vote for a black man fell for his charisma.

It will be matter of time before the United States manages to get a woman as president, the left is getting more progressive as time passes, but Trump has dragged the more moderates towards the right, as it stands now the Democrat party would not take chances with a black woman as candidate until they somehow ended the influence Trump sow within the GOP and some former moderates.

Those who are still moderates could choose not to vote.

[Sithara007]

Obama was quite a very likeable politician, to be honest.
Granted, his skin color raised several comments among voters, but even those within the Democrat party who were not ready to vote for a black man fell for his charisma.

It will be matter of time before the United States manages to get a woman as president, the left is getting more progressive as time passes, but Trump has dragged the more moderates towards the right, as it stands now the Democrat party would not take chances with a black woman as candidate until they somehow ended the influence Trump sow within the GOP and some former moderates.

Those who are still moderates could choose not to vote.

I really don't believe that skin color plays any role in the POTUS election nowadays. Recent polls have constantly measured support for Trump among the African Americans at 20% to 25% (almost 10x higher than what it was during the Bush regime). If Kamala Harris or Vivek Ramaswamy fails to get nomination from their own parties, it may have very little to do with the fact that they are non-white. Kamala is further left to the left-wing spectrum, and that is the reason why she is unelectable as a democrat nominee. That said, someone like Kyrsten Sinema has a better chance to defeat Trump, when compared to Kamala.

[nullama]

~snip~
Obama was quite a very likeable politician, to be honest.
Granted, his skin color raised several comments among voters, but even those within the Democrat party who were not ready to vote for a black man fell for his charisma.

It will be matter of time before the United States manages to get a woman as president, the left is getting more progressive as time passes, but Trump has dragged the more moderates towards the right, as it stands now the Democrat party would not take chances with a black woman as candidate until they somehow ended the influence Trump sow within the GOP and some former moderates.

Those who are still moderates could choose not to vote.

To be honest, I'm kinda waiting for a movie or series to be made of the current American political system, house of cards was good, but we need a newer version of it.

It's all like a show these days. Any time I hear an American politician from back in the days it feels like another country completely.

For example, listen to the John F. Kennedy Moon Speech and compare that to a modern day speech.