who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections?

[Betwrong]

~ Do you still think Trump can win?

He still can. Because he has trained his voting base to ignore, not pay attention or even care of the serious charges he is being accused of. There are even people who still believe that 2020 was a fraudulent election, it does not matter what evidence one can show. In their minds, this is all about a secret battle between the deep state and the savior Trump, and the Republican polling shows it.

In the end, all will come down to whether the moderade Republican base will choose reason over Trump's political aspirations.

Does Trump's voting base make up the majority of Americans? Trump relies on uneducated people, and there's less and less of such people in America each year. Trump needs a time machine for going back in time to the years when he could win the elections.

Sports bettors don't believe he's winning:



Otherwise we wouldn't have the odds like this.

[1715204966]

1715204966

[zuzie]

It's still too long to choose who the US presidential candidate will be next year, but we'll see now this year who is the most powerful and superior of the 2024 US presidential candidates. Joe Biden from the Democratic Party is again challenging Trump to run for president again.

This is an opportunity for Biden to continue campaigning so that US citizens side with him, with the problems that Trump is currently experiencing, in my opinion this is a very good opportunity for Biden to continue campaigning so that he can later become US president again. but in elections we cannot predict the outcome of who will be elected.

[FanEagle]

Why the focus is only on GOP? I agree that in general the party has moved to further right of the political spectrum. But at the same time the Democrats have also moved even further to the left of the spectrum. But the media focus is only on GOP, because the ecosystem is dominated by the left. But I agree with your argument that this individual-centric policies are against the principles of GOP. It is OK with Democrat party, but Republicans never had such a structure. But Trump has succeeded in transforming the party to something that centers around him during the last few years.

Because Trumpist regime and GOP are different things and the result shows. You may think that democrats gone "far left" but when you look at the last 3 years of Biden presidency, and you wouldn't find too much leftist things, there are "talks" about far left stuff, but there aren't any executive orders about it, you won't see Biden signing any executive order that would be far left, you would see voters of them to be far left now, but not the president himself, that's the difference.

Whereas, even though GOP voters could be a bit closer to center, Trump is far far far right, actually he is far reach if you know what I mean, and that's why there is a difference between the candidate being far or the voter be, Trump should be locked up and some other decent Republican could be the candidate and suddenly everyone would be okay, it is not about GOP or anything, it is personally about Trump.

[Gyfts]

PredictIt has Vivek Ramaswamy now in second place above Ron DeSantis: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7053/Who-will-win-the-2024-Republican-presidential-nomination

Recent polling from "Emerson" has DeSantis and Ramaswamy tied at 10% each. Trump still remains 30-40% ahead: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2023-national-poll-desantis-fades-into-tie-with-ramaswamy-trump-maintains-majority-of-gop-support-ahead-of-debate/

Could be an anomaly in the polling data, though I've seen many Republican strategists desperately scrambling to save the DeSantis campaign as if it were a sinking ship as of late. Perhaps their internal polling is painting a similar picture.

Trump as the Republican nominee in 2024 will be an electoral landslide for Joe Biden with the current available polling data. I have yet to see any evidence to the contrary. The election interference by left wing district attorneys in New York and Georgia are strategic. The charges do not have merit. They exist solely to impact his 2024 chances, which is why they waited nearly three years to indict on evidence that existed years ago.

[Hispo]

~ Do you still think Trump can win?

He still can. Because he has trained his voting base to ignore, not pay attention or even care of the serious charges he is being accused of. There are even people who still believe that 2020 was a fraudulent election, it does not matter what evidence one can show. In their minds, this is all about a secret battle between the deep state and the savior Trump, and the Republican polling shows it.

In the end, all will come down to whether the moderade Republican base will choose reason over Trump's political aspirations.

Does Trump's voting base make up the majority of Americans? Trump relies on uneducated people, and there's less and less of such people in America each year. Trump needs a time machine for going back in time to the years when he could win the elections.

Sports bettors don't believe he's winning:



Otherwise we wouldn't have the odds like this.

Trump supporters are not a majority in the United States, but they are part of an important percentage within the Republican voting base. Hence, the reason Republican politicians going for the presidency try not to directly attack Trump. Not even Mike Pence who is one of the victims of the attack on the capitol.

It seems that bettors for now believe that the people of USA will repeat what we saw in the mid term elections, when those candidates picked by Trump and endorsed by him ended up losing.

Still the odds are so separate from each other, something unexpected can turn the situation in Trump's favor.

[el kaka22]

The fact that someone could be jailed and still be elected president is a weird one. I mean not that it is impossible for it to be reverse as well, so I understand it. Think about it, if Trump was out, and someone else was in, like Biden for example, in that case democrats would vote for Biden as well instead of Trump, so do not think that being able to get elected from jail is bad for just one side, it could work out badly or well for both sides.

In the end, it is still weird to think about though, I wouldn't think in a million years that something like this would happen. I mean isn't there any other better republican? Is Trump really the best candidate that republicans could find? There is no single republican that could be better candidate?

[slapper]

The fact that someone could be jailed and still be elected president is a weird one. I mean not that it is impossible for it to be reverse as well, so I understand it. Think about it, if Trump was out, and someone else was in, like Biden for example, in that case democrats would vote for Biden as well instead of Trump, so do not think that being able to get elected from jail is bad for just one side, it could work out badly or well for both sides.

In the end, it is still weird to think about though, I wouldn't think in a million years that something like this would happen. I mean isn't there any other better republican? Is Trump really the best candidate that republicans could find? There is no single republican that could be better candidate?

So you're telling me that any two-bit politician, even one who started off in jail, might be able to reach the nation's top office? No fantasy for me! Let's not pretend. The principles they stand for and the cause they support are more important than the individual

Dems would support Biden if Trump were to lose, without a doubt. Your fundamental premise, however, is incorrect! Trump is a movement, an ideology, and a wave of disenfranchised Americans. That's up for argument, though; whether you believe it's good or harmful

Moreover, do you think the Republicans could choose a better candidate? Better is not the issue; rather, what works at the given moment. Millions found Trump appealing! So perhaps the greater question is why Trump's message resonated with voters in the first place rather than whether there is a better Republican candidate

[Hispo]

The fact that someone could be jailed and still be elected president is a weird one. I mean not that it is impossible for it to be reverse as well, so I understand it. Think about it, if Trump was out, and someone else was in, like Biden for example, in that case democrats would vote for Biden as well instead of Trump, so do not think that being able to get elected from jail is bad for just one side, it could work out badly or well for both sides.

In the end, it is still weird to think about though, I wouldn't think in a million years that something like this would happen. I mean isn't there any other better republican? Is Trump really the best candidate that republicans could find? There is no single republican that could be better candidate?

I disagree, democrats would vote for Joe Biden if there was some criminal case going on against him. That is the difference between both base of voters, the Trump base (which is a good percentage of the Republican base) has managed to devolve from basic common sense and has lowered the political bar to new levels, where it would be okey for a president to be a convicted felon.

If we assumed some of the alleged crimes Bidens commit were true and there was evidence of it, then some other democrat politicians would take advantage of the scandal to position themselves as the new leading candidate for the nomination. In the Republican party the opposite is happening and it is kind of sad to see it from the party which not long along embraced the "law and order" slogan and chanted "blue lives matter". Now the FBI and the prosecutors are the baddies.

[Slow death]

honestly I wouldn't bet money on the US election, but looking at trump's ideas, I think I'd rather he lose the election, he had a very bad attitude during the covid pandemic, I'm not American and I've never been to the US from america, but the things i saw in the news about him in the time of the pandemic were absurd, he was not a responsible and courageous person capable of closing everything to protect people from themselves in the time of covid, he was only worried about money and having popularity in the next elections, that's the only thing he is worried about, even if he won in the next elections the guy will be worried about money and popularity

he will stop supporting ukraine and favor russia, he would probably reduce financial support for nato, he also does not accept defeat, he is always accusing the electoral system, but he forgets that it was the same electoral system that he won and became president and that when he won the elections he did not accuse the electoral system of fraud, this type of person does not accept defeat and always uses dishonest means to stay in power, because they think that they are the only ones who can be the solution to problems, and the thought of the dictators who are in africa as presidents

in my opinion, the guy needs to stop lying about the past elections, in fact he shouldn't accuse the electoral system, he should have accepted defeat and congratulated his opponent and then ran again, even if he didn't agree with the elections, he could talk to them himself about this disagreement so that no one else would be listening, he should also condemn the russian invasion of ukraine, but the guy keeps saying things like he will resolve the conflict in a few days if he were president, honestly he is looking like he doesn't have press accessors to be advising him well on what he's going to say

[AmoreJaz]

The fact that someone could be jailed and still be elected president is a weird one. I mean not that it is impossible for it to be reverse as well, so I understand it. Think about it, if Trump was out, and someone else was in, like Biden for example, in that case democrats would vote for Biden as well instead of Trump, so do not think that being able to get elected from jail is bad for just one side, it could work out badly or well for both sides.

In the end, it is still weird to think about though, I wouldn't think in a million years that something like this would happen. I mean isn't there any other better republican? Is Trump really the best candidate that republicans could find? There is no single republican that could be better candidate?

this situation is not new in other countries. some are jailed and yet they can still run for office. i guess, it depends on how politics is being handled in every country. if you think about most requirements to run in politics, it is pretty much easy. so if they feel they can go around with the rules, they will, if they have the interest to run.

[STT]

Odds for Trump should be way against him for a variety of reasons, seems fair to him so currently its nice value given for the Biden bet.  Even if we ignore any court cases, Im not legal minded but say they are all for show and suspicion or allegations are not nearly near proof enough for actual convictions.   Hence the motivations to prosecute could be described as politically powered, its a gain from the kudos of bringing the case even if they waste their time doing so in theory as it was never going to be enough.
   So even with all the legal sides dismissed its still a case of lacking the college vote that won the first surprise win back in 2016, eight years later this whole concept is threadbare and worn.  For the very same reasons many candidates try but do not return again there isnt the votes to win on or enough reason to believe so; if people doubt your ability to win then it can become self fulfilling.
   Simple take will always be the economy, if 2020 had been a normal year we might not be here now as I dont think Biden would try at this juncture if not already president.

[mirakal]

The fact that someone could be jailed and still be elected president is a weird one. I mean not that it is impossible for it to be reverse as well, so I understand it. Think about it, if Trump was out, and someone else was in, like Biden for example, in that case democrats would vote for Biden as well instead of Trump, so do not think that being able to get elected from jail is bad for just one side, it could work out badly or well for both sides.

In the end, it is still weird to think about though, I wouldn't think in a million years that something like this would happen. I mean isn't there any other better republican? Is Trump really the best candidate that republicans could find? There is no single republican that could be better candidate?

this situation is not new in other countries. some are jailed and yet they can still run for office. i guess, it depends on how politics is being handled in every country. if you think about most requirements to run in politics, it is pretty much easy. so if they feel they can go around with the rules, they will, if they have the interest to run.

Absolutely. Being in jail does not deprive a politician to still run for its desired position as long as he still has the potentials and is capable enough to manage his people. If the country’s government allow it to happen, then I don’t think Trump or any other politician will have to fear being put in jail. If Trump finds himself in this case, then probably he might be following the footstep of a previous president Eugene Debs who still managed to get majority of the votes despite of the fact that he’s in jail. This is not new anymore, and I’m sure more of these future politicians will have the same fate.

[Yogee]

Any personality you follow on social media that discusses US politics that have been restricted or demonetized already? I would expect most of those who support Trump and are vocal about it would be banned as the elections draws near.

[....]
If Trump was the president, then the Russo-Ukrainian war would have been over by now. 

I would argue that Russia would have never fired a single shot if Trump was re-elected.

[nullama]

The fact that someone could be jailed and still be elected president is a weird one. I mean not that it is impossible for it to be reverse as well, so I understand it. Think about it, if Trump was out, and someone else was in, like Biden for example, in that case democrats would vote for Biden as well instead of Trump, so do not think that being able to get elected from jail is bad for just one side, it could work out badly or well for both sides.

In the end, it is still weird to think about though, I wouldn't think in a million years that something like this would happen. I mean isn't there any other better republican? Is Trump really the best candidate that republicans could find? There is no single republican that could be better candidate?

Yes, I do feel the same. It's weird that once you are jailed you cannot vote (I think that's the case in the US), but you would still be able to be elected as president.

Makes little sense to me.

In that case, Trump wouldn't be able to vote for himself.

[Sithara007]

Lots of fights going on between supporters of Ramaswamy and DeSantis in the Republican primary. DeSantis supporters have launched a tirade against Ramaswamy, accusing him of not being in sync with the GOP support base (which is predominantly white evangelical Christian). It is very strange that we have a colored Hindu (Ramaswamy) running for the GOP primary, and a anti-vaxxer (Kennedy) running in the Democrat primary. They should ideally swap their parties. BTW, latest polls show DeSantis pulling ahead of Ramaswamy, which suggests that ads from DeSantis targeting his opponent's religion is having a big impact.

[beerlover]

Trump supporters are not a majority in the United States, but they are part of an important percentage within the Republican voting base. Hence, the reason Republican politicians going for the presidency try not to directly attack Trump. Not even Mike Pence who is one of the victims of the attack on the capitol.

It seems that bettors for now believe that the people of USA will repeat what we saw in the mid term elections, when those candidates picked by Trump and endorsed by him ended up losing.

Still the odds are so separate from each other, something unexpected can turn the situation in Trump's favor.

It is obvious that even though Trump makes some people go out and vote for him, which is any president would want since all they need would be votes, but also causes a lot of people to vote whoever is against him.

I mean it's not just about making Biden be the most voted person in history of USA elections ever, that was a record breaking number of people who voted for Biden and that was just people who voted against Trump, there is a difference there. On top of that anyone who supported ended up losing as well, look at what Georgia governor did after getting elected again. This is why it's quite clear that we are going to end up with a lot of hatred towards Trump that beats out the love for him and the results will be clear.

[Hispo]

Trump supporters are not a majority in the United States, but they are part of an important percentage within the Republican voting base. Hence, the reason Republican politicians going for the presidency try not to directly attack Trump. Not even Mike Pence who is one of the victims of the attack on the capitol.

It seems that bettors for now believe that the people of USA will repeat what we saw in the mid term elections, when those candidates picked by Trump and endorsed by him ended up losing.

Still the odds are so separate from each other, something unexpected can turn the situation in Trump's favor.

It is obvious that even though Trump makes some people go out and vote for him, which is any president would want since all they need would be votes, but also causes a lot of people to vote whoever is against him.

I mean it's not just about making Biden be the most voted person in history of USA elections ever, that was a record breaking number of people who voted for Biden and that was just people who voted against Trump, there is a difference there. On top of that anyone who supported ended up losing as well, look at what Georgia governor did after getting elected again. This is why it's quite clear that we are going to end up with a lot of hatred towards Trump that beats out the love for him and the results will be clear.

Also, there must be people who voted for him and like him as a personality, but after seeing the legal problems and the crimes he has allegedly committed in New York and in Georgia, some of his supporters may stay home and not vote. The Republican political propaganda is very focused on Biden's administration being a disaster, and that message is directed to both die-hars Trump supporters and the average Republican who just want the party to go back to what it used to be some years ago.

Biden is not a perfect politician but despite his age and the economical situation the pandemic put the USA through, he has managed to get numbers to show off. The so called Bidenomics.

[Sithara007]

Also, there must be people who voted for him and like him as a personality, but after seeing the legal problems and the crimes he has allegedly committed in New York and in Georgia, some of his supporters may stay home and not vote. The Republican political propaganda is very focused on Biden's administration being a disaster, and that message is directed to both die-hars Trump supporters and the average Republican who just want the party to go back to what it used to be some years ago.

Biden is not a perfect politician but despite his age and the economical situation the pandemic put the USA through, he has managed to get numbers to show off. The so called Bidenomics.

I would disagree. Biden hasn't done anything exceptional. Trump did a great job in bringing the economy back to a state of good health during his term (2016-2020). There was a temporary slide in 2020-21 as a result of then pandemic, but the economy achieved a natural recovery after that. The strong state of economy continued for 2022-23, but some of the economic policies by Biden did great deal of damage. Biggest blunder was the cancellation of Keystone XL pipeline and prohibition of fracking in federal lands. Crude oil prices increased by 2x immediately after that.

[FanEagle]

If Trump was president, Russia would have taken over parts of Ukraine already. How do I know this? Well lets see, a president that calls Putin his friend, and got dirty laundered money from deutsche bank that has Russian mafia money, and got donated by Russian American as a consideration of election rigging, and whole campaign was blamed to be Russian interference and then there is the point of him constantly saying there shouldn't be this much money sent over to Ukraine and it is not their business.

This means that yeah USA would be doing better, but then Russia would be taking over without a doubt, without help from USA , Ukraine would have done nothing. This is why it should be important to remember that it is not going to be smart to elect Trump.

[Gyfts]

Republican primary debate was last night, you can familiarize yourself with the participants: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/who-are-the-candidates-in-the-first-gop-primary-debate

Some candidates are not even worth mentioning, the only major players were DeSantis, Ramaswamy, Pence, and Haley. Trump, obviously, was absent. Instead, he elected to do an "X" interview with Tucker Carlson here amassing over 200M impressions thus far: www.x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1694513603251241143

I consider the winner of a primary debate to be someone who increases their chance of being the nominee for that party, and as such there was actually no winner of this debate. Trump sits 30-40 points ahead of every candidate, and no particular candidate had a stellar performance that would lend himself or herself to taking the Republican nominee from Trump.

That being said, Ramaswamy stood out the most. He's charismatic and a good debater. He took the most attacks from other candidates and was able to respond efficiently. DeSantis, despite not being attacked, came out rather flat with many rehearsed lines. His conservative record is impressive, but he isn't a great politician. I see Ramaswamy surging slightly in the odds eating away at DeSantis's lead.