who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections?

[nullama]

What is important with these "trump won't be allowed to vote" parts coming from other states, is the fact that do they have a legal standing or not. If they do have a legal standing it's very scary, if they do not have any legal standing that is even scarier as well.

Think of it this way, if they do have a legal standing, that means a president of the USA did something so horrible that legally he is not allowed to run again and it is real, not fake at all. If it is not legal, then it means there are some judges in the USA, who has used their power to illegally not allowed a president to run, which could be precedent and other states may start doing it too, if they are allowed to do that, then how could we sure that some republican state judge won't do it to Biden? So it is not really any good way at all, in either case this is quite scary, either a president did something that prevents him to run again, or a judge used their power for unjust move, that is terrible to think about.

The things is that there are some politicians in the United States who believe the article in the constitution which is being used against Trump is supposed to be used specifically in this way and in situations like these ones for preventing bad people to reach the presidency or any official position within the government whatsoever, while there are other who believe this is an article which is specifically about the prevention of people who participated in the American civil war into the Union politics.
Regardless of what happens, the judges of those states won't have the final word, the SCOTUS will and they are likely to side with Trump anyways.

Whatever happens (and going beyong gambling and betting on political options for the presidency of the United States) this year sure is going to be pretty agitated in the news, rumors, conspiracy theories and probably foreign intervention on the way of thinking of the public. It has already been proven that Trump only gets stronger with each accusation and these attempts to kick Jim out the ballot will continue to accumulate support for him. Let us see how the primaries go.

What I find more disconcerting is that most people are looking at this as a political move against their candidate.

As in, there is nothing that a candidate could do to being banned from being a candidate in their minds.

And the responses I am seeing are, well, what if they decide to do the same with the other one, etc. To which obviously they should, no one is above the law.

[1715142723]

1715142723

[1715142723]

1715142723

[1715142723]

1715142723

[1715142723]

1715142723

[1715142723]

1715142723

[Hispo]

What is important with these "trump won't be allowed to vote" parts coming from other states, is the fact that do they have a legal standing or not. If they do have a legal standing it's very scary, if they do not have any legal standing that is even scarier as well.

Think of it this way, if they do have a legal standing, that means a president of the USA did something so horrible that legally he is not allowed to run again and it is real, not fake at all. If it is not legal, then it means there are some judges in the USA, who has used their power to illegally not allowed a president to run, which could be precedent and other states may start doing it too, if they are allowed to do that, then how could we sure that some republican state judge won't do it to Biden? So it is not really any good way at all, in either case this is quite scary, either a president did something that prevents him to run again, or a judge used their power for unjust move, that is terrible to think about.

The things is that there are some politicians in the United States who believe the article in the constitution which is being used against Trump is supposed to be used specifically in this way and in situations like these ones for preventing bad people to reach the presidency or any official position within the government whatsoever, while there are other who believe this is an article which is specifically about the prevention of people who participated in the American civil war into the Union politics.
Regardless of what happens, the judges of those states won't have the final word, the SCOTUS will and they are likely to side with Trump anyways.

Whatever happens (and going beyong gambling and betting on political options for the presidency of the United States) this year sure is going to be pretty agitated in the news, rumors, conspiracy theories and probably foreign intervention on the way of thinking of the public. It has already been proven that Trump only gets stronger with each accusation and these attempts to kick Jim out the ballot will continue to accumulate support for him. Let us see how the primaries go.

What I find more disconcerting is that most people are looking at this as a political move against their candidate.

As in, there is nothing that a candidate could do to being banned from being a candidate in their minds.

And the responses I am seeing are, well, what if they decide to do the same with the other one, etc. To which obviously they should, no one is above the law.

To some degree, one should not be surprised on how people react to this decision by those states to try to ban a candidate from the ballot, keep in mind this is a legal movement which has never been used before in modern America, because there had never been a candidate like Donald Trump in the history of the United States. While there is people who knows this is a matter of applying the law rather political prosecution, there will be always figures in the media who will try to weaponize this unprecedented use of the law for their own purposes. Those are the one who are being evil in purpose. On the other hand, we could have a lot of uneducated Republican voters who had never studied law or talked to an actual attorney about it, so they let the media figure on TV to decided how they are supposed to feel about these unprecedented times.
The reaction by the media and the people who watch it was predictable, the election and the result is where the uncertainty kicks in and becomes an important part of both the future of the USA and the money we decide to place on either candidate.

[Sithara007]

Haley has now solidified her position as the no.2 in Republican nomination race. But what will actually happen in the unlikely scenario of Trump banned from participating in the POTUS election of 2024? Is he going to put his weight behind Haley? That is very unlikely as on previous occasions he has spoken against her. But with DeSantis and Ramaswamy trailing in the polls, Haley is the second-most probable candidate for GOP nomination, according to sportsbooks such as Stake. And many of the polls have shown Haley with a bigger lead against Biden, when compared to Trump.

[Hispo]

Haley has now solidified her position as the no.2 in Republican nomination race. But what will actually happen in the unlikely scenario of Trump banned from participating in the POTUS election of 2024? Is he going to put his weight behind Haley? That is very unlikely as on previous occasions he has spoken against her. But with DeSantis and Ramaswamy trailing in the polls, Haley is the second-most probable candidate for GOP nomination, according to sportsbooks such as Stake. And many of the polls have shown Haley with a bigger lead against Biden, when compared to Trump.

Haley has become the most reliable establishment candidate of the GOP. She may actually have a chance had this elections been more regular and without such a historical weight on the future of the United States.
It is quite remarkable how DeSantis actually had a chance to take Trump down and somehow managed to blew it with this lackluster personality and strange mannerisms.

If Trump gets disqualified, he won't have the mental and strategical way of thinking to endorse someone else above him, his ego won't allow him to do so. And keeping in mind the people who identify themselves as Trump voters are unlikely to vote for De Santis, then it would be realistic to say Haley may stand a chance.

Democrats would be very confused on what to feel on Haley becoming the first woman elected president of the United States.

[Betwrong]

~

The case of Ron is quite a case to be studied in the future (when these elections are over) by political strategists and advertisement providers, to be honest; it is quite remarkable how he had the odds, the donors and the poll numbers to had taken over Trump but end up losing all that support because is bad personality and tasteless behavior during interviews, at this point I believe Chris Chistie is a better candidate than him, at least he is not afraid of Trump is not afraid of saying the thinks he actually believes. Keeping in mind De Santis support basically comes from a percentage of the MAGA base which was not sure about Trump as candidate, it may be safe to say that his political career may be over once he gets removed from his position in Florida, Trump won't ever sponsor him again, obviously.

I believe Trump has a very good chance of winning, because this is not a normal world anymore. if this was a normal world like in the 2000"s, Trump race would have been over after he got indicted once or twice and after being found guilty of sexual assault, etc. but he continues to dominate the Republican party, sadly. What bothers me is Biden treating Trump as he was a normal politician and avoids direct confrontation against him (probably because that would only help the narrative of those indictments being politically motivated). Anyways, I am not sure yet where to put my money, to be honest. 

Neither am I. I placed a couple of small bets on Michelle Obama and Kamala Harris, and I cashed out my bet on Nikki Haley because the payout was 4 times bigger than my initial stake and I don't think she will become President eventually. I still think that the most promising candidate is Joe Biden, but I hope the odds for him will go over 10.00 and then I will place my bet.

[STT]

JP Morgan is predicting Biden to step down for health reasons with a higher probability then previously thought before.   Since thats a fairly genuine big name I need to track down the details of that story and why but I was surprised to hear as I imagine Biden will soldier on unless of course no longer with us which stands true for anyone in life, he is old but I was not suspecting health is a reason for his absence from the ballot later this year.  
  Near term we have the Supreme court ruling on whether Trump can be excluded as a valid candidate in various states.  It does seem undemocratic to me, Im not sure if its been done previously to less famous names possibly I guess.  The brief story I read was this is actually precedented as far insurrection charges go, Trump is not convicted of as much hence I dont believe its a valid exclusion and will be overruled but Im not a lawyer just my 5 second take on it.


Good cash out I think many candidates run to improve their later chances of a job in any administration by gaining support for themselves politically etc.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-jpmorgan-strategist-predicts-joe-biden-will-drop-out-of-the-2024-race/ar-AA1mBE3O

[o48o]

Haley has now solidified her position as the no.2 in Republican nomination race. But what will actually happen in the unlikely scenario of Trump banned from participating in the POTUS election of 2024? Is he going to put his weight behind Haley? That is very unlikely as on previous occasions he has spoken against her. But with DeSantis and Ramaswamy trailing in the polls, Haley is the second-most probable candidate for GOP nomination, according to sportsbooks such as Stake. And many of the polls have shown Haley with a bigger lead against Biden, when compared to Trump.

Of course not. He doesn't care about republican party or their values, he never has. It's all about attention and praise from his followers to himself. That's what rich people want. They have material stuff already, so they want power and be the focus of attention. For now they are just his ticket in. I frankly think that republicans would have better changes without trump. If trump voters would vote anyone but trump. Because now all people who loath trump will vote for Biden just to make sure trump won't get in. If trump wouldn't be running, votes could scatter more around. Some democrats might even go for republicans, if they found their new road. Desantis doesn't have what it takes, but someone else could.

Right now Trump seems to be favorite when it comes to odds, which as an european seems weird, given that he is probably heading to jail.

[Hispo]

~

The case of Ron is quite a case to be studied in the future (when these elections are over) by political strategists and advertisement providers, to be honest; it is quite remarkable how he had the odds, the donors and the poll numbers to had taken over Trump but end up losing all that support because is bad personality and tasteless behavior during interviews, at this point I believe Chris Chistie is a better candidate than him, at least he is not afraid of Trump is not afraid of saying the thinks he actually believes. Keeping in mind De Santis support basically comes from a percentage of the MAGA base which was not sure about Trump as candidate, it may be safe to say that his political career may be over once he gets removed from his position in Florida, Trump won't ever sponsor him again, obviously.

I believe Trump has a very good chance of winning, because this is not a normal world anymore. if this was a normal world like in the 2000"s, Trump race would have been over after he got indicted once or twice and after being found guilty of sexual assault, etc. but he continues to dominate the Republican party, sadly. What bothers me is Biden treating Trump as he was a normal politician and avoids direct confrontation against him (probably because that would only help the narrative of those indictments being politically motivated). Anyways, I am not sure yet where to put my money, to be honest.  

Neither am I. I placed a couple of small bets on Michelle Obama and Kamala Harris, and I cashed out my bet on Nikki Haley because the payout was 4 times bigger than my initial stake and I don't think she will become President eventually. I still think that the most promising candidate is Joe Biden, but I hope the odds for him will go over 10.00 and then I will place my bet.

Yes, I remember you posted about your small bet which turned out well, so decided to cash out.
Joe Biden is the logical candidate for this incoming elections, but you must be aware the American politics are going though a very difficult and weird stage where facts and logic do not completely matter anymore to advance within the world of polítics. If this was a normal election in the United States, then Trump would not even be the anticipated winner of the Republican primaries. Back some years ago, some presidential candidate being indicted once would have been translated into the death of their political career, instead of it we see the contrary.
Because of the precedents Trump has managed to establish (which could have been considered impossible before) I am still holding myself from betting in favor of Joe Biden, I may expect some months to pass by before deciding what to do.

Also, because of the importance of this elections and how much they are being publicized in social Media and the regular media, I would not be surprised if the volume of bets out reached the level of previous years and presidential elections.

[nullama]

Haley has now solidified her position as the no.2 in Republican nomination race. But what will actually happen in the unlikely scenario of Trump banned from participating in the POTUS election of 2024? Is he going to put his weight behind Haley? That is very unlikely as on previous occasions he has spoken against her. But with DeSantis and Ramaswamy trailing in the polls, Haley is the second-most probable candidate for GOP nomination, according to sportsbooks such as Stake. And many of the polls have shown Haley with a bigger lead against Biden, when compared to Trump.

If that actually happens, I don't see Trump recommending any other candidate.

I think he would just continue to try to run somehow.

It doesn't feel like his MO to accept defeat and praise someone else instead.

[Hispo]

Haley has now solidified her position as the no.2 in Republican nomination race. But what will actually happen in the unlikely scenario of Trump banned from participating in the POTUS election of 2024? Is he going to put his weight behind Haley? That is very unlikely as on previous occasions he has spoken against her. But with DeSantis and Ramaswamy trailing in the polls, Haley is the second-most probable candidate for GOP nomination, according to sportsbooks such as Stake. And many of the polls have shown Haley with a bigger lead against Biden, when compared to Trump.

If that actually happens, I don't see Trump recommending any other candidate.

I think he would just continue to try to run somehow.

It doesn't feel like his MO to accept defeat and praise someone else instead.

Obviously his ego would not allow him to endorse anyone but himself. Actually, I was reading in the internet and Trump was recently demanding Ted Cruz to endorse him (we all are pretty aware of the old rivalry there was between both Trump and Ted Cruz), so keeping that in mind, Trump will never endorse anyone.
Even if there was going to end up in prison, he will still have the nomination in his hands and his popularity would continue to increase while behind bars.

I never understood the practical purpose of open endorsements, obviously endorsements can help with the polls and to gain some secondary support of other voters, however, in the case of Trump and the endorsement of people within the party like Ted Cruz, seems rather like something about loyalty and submission of the Republican party to the will and whim of Trump. Because Trump does not have anything to lose from being endorsed or not by Cruz, on the other hand Cruz has a lot to lose if he decided not to endorse Trump. It is kind of interesting how loyalty is important for Trump beyond pragmatism.

[Sithara007]

If that actually happens, I don't see Trump recommending any other candidate.

I think he would just continue to try to run somehow.

It doesn't feel like his MO to accept defeat and praise someone else instead.

If he is disqualified from running, then he has two options - either support one of his proxies like Ivanka Trump, or kick start yet another resurrection. The second option is quite risky for him, so in all probability he will settle for the first option. But the issue is that GOP establishment may not support Trump's choice. They would rather go for Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis. And Haley's campaign has so far attracted some of the largest GOP donors, such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Ken Langone. What concerns me is that Democrat leaning donors such as Reid Hoffman have started funding Haley's campaign, just in order to block Trump from getting GOP nomination.

[Hispo]

If that actually happens, I don't see Trump recommending any other candidate.

I think he would just continue to try to run somehow.

It doesn't feel like his MO to accept defeat and praise someone else instead.

If he is disqualified from running, then he has two options - either support one of his proxies like Ivanka Trump, or kick start yet another resurrection. The second option is quite risky for him, so in all probability he will settle for the first option. But the issue is that GOP establishment may not support Trump's choice. They would rather go for Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis. And Haley's campaign has so far attracted some of the largest GOP donors, such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Ken Langone. What concerns me is that Democrat leaning donors such as Reid Hoffman have started funding Haley's campaign, just in order to block Trump from getting GOP nomination.

I had not thought about that option, to be honest, it is quite of a good one if Trump decided to support someone in his family to reach power for him, though I still believe it would be very unlikely for him to do that. It would be effective, since Ivanka or Don Jr, could easily pardon Donald Trump for federal crimes he committed, though it would have no effect over the indictments going on Gerogia and other states. Gerogia is particularly dangerous for Trump because how his co-defendants are already pleading guilty and confessing to the crimes committed.

Also, the establishment does not have much of an option if Trump decided to use a proxy in case of being excluded from the ballot, the whole point and threat of Trump for the status quo is the fact he has managed to gain more power over the Republican base than the establishment-backed candidates like Haley or De Santis. The establishment would love to push Trump to one side, into the trashcan of history, but they cannot.

Still more possible in the mind of Trump to rally up his base to scare the Supreme court to rule in his favor.

[nullama]

~snip~
If he is disqualified from running, then he has two options - either support one of his proxies like Ivanka Trump, or kick start yet another resurrection. The second option is quite risky for him, so in all probability he will settle for the first option. But the issue is that GOP establishment may not support Trump's choice. They would rather go for Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis. And Haley's campaign has so far attracted some of the largest GOP donors, such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Ken Langone. What concerns me is that Democrat leaning donors such as Reid Hoffman have started funding Haley's campaign, just in order to block Trump from getting GOP nomination.

Ah right, yes. I didn't consider that first option.

That's what probably will happen if he is not allowed to be a candidate.

[FanEagle]

If that actually happens, I don't see Trump recommending any other candidate.

I think he would just continue to try to run somehow.

It doesn't feel like his MO to accept defeat and praise someone else instead.

If he is disqualified from running, then he has two options - either support one of his proxies like Ivanka Trump, or kick start yet another resurrection. The second option is quite risky for him, so in all probability he will settle for the first option. But the issue is that GOP establishment may not support Trump's choice. They would rather go for Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis. And Haley's campaign has so far attracted some of the largest GOP donors, such as Stanley Druckenmiller and Ken Langone. What concerns me is that Democrat leaning donors such as Reid Hoffman have started funding Haley's campaign, just in order to block Trump from getting GOP nomination.

There was a candidate, which I agree doesn't even look like a candidate anymore, but someone who got support from even old school liberals, maybe not the new "say my pronouns correctly!!!" group, but the whole 60+ year old democrats did like that dude, I am talking about Vivek Ramaswamy. That dude may not be the typical "American" that they think about, unfortunately even to this day there are some people who would still not vote for a person who is not white, but I believe most of them are republicans.

I believe that if it was "Vivek vs Biden" elections, Biden would lose way too many votes, not all has to go to Vivek, but Vivek could convince some Biden supporters to not just go to vote. I believe if Trump is not the nominee, Vivek should be given a thought, he is a decent guy, I hate republicans normally (not an American myself) but I did liked that dude, he said things that made sense.

[STT]

Chris Christie drops out of the race while also dropping some comments on his alternate candidates in the race.      Since all these promotions for the election cost alot of money I imagine almost all of the candidates could justify leaving the race and saving alot of effort vs the standing bias to the former president that exists.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/chris-christie-caught-on-a-hot-mic-saying-nikki-haley-was-going-to-get-smoked/ar-AA1mMd7m

“She’s going to get smoked — you and I both know it. She’s not up to this," Christie said.

He also talked about a call he had with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, saying, “DeSantis called me — petrified.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/chris-christie-ends-presidential-bid-in-an-effort-to-blunt-trump-s-momentum-before-iowa-caucuses/vi-AA1mM8pI?cvid=32e6acc6759f4c52a36f1f3e4781a12c&ei=18


To avoid dividing the votes further in order to oppose his former comrade Trump, no viable chance to winning.

[el kaka22]

The thing about supporting another family member is that people do not really consider them to be the point of attack, Ivanka, or any other Trump basically, will not be loved by all, Donald was, and not by all, there were a lot of people who hate him, still do, but there were enough that loved him to overcome that once, and not enough once, he joined 2 elections, won one and lost another. Any other Trump? I do not think that they would get that much attention and love, not enough time left to build that campaign.

I believe that if he is not nominated, if he is not allowed to run, all he can do would be support another republican, and we all know his ego, we are 100% certain that if he is not allowed to run, he would want republicans to lose, just so he could say he would have won.

[Hispo]

The thing about supporting another family member is that people do not really consider them to be the point of attack, Ivanka, or any other Trump basically, will not be loved by all, Donald was, and not by all, there were a lot of people who hate him, still do, but there were enough that loved him to overcome that once, and not enough once, he joined 2 elections, won one and lost another. Any other Trump? I do not think that they would get that much attention and love, not enough time left to build that campaign.

I believe Donald Trump could still designate one of his family members and get away with it, I dont think that strategy would lose much support, because people would assume Trump would continue to give advice and instructions to that family member or perhaps that family member would make sure to let people know they would hire Donald Trump as an advisor for the presidency. Though, that would not give Donald Trump the previous presidential immunity he had, so he will still get send to prison for his alleged crimes committed in the state of Georgia. The rest of the crimes which are federal ones could be pardoned by his family member as soon as it gets within the White House. The only thing which could get in his way with comes to this plan would be his own ego, he would not be happy to hold any other position different from the presidency if the United States.

[FanEagle]

To be fair, there is really no candidates aside from Biden or Trump, those are the ones that will fight in the end. There are two situations of course that could change this, what could this be? Trump getting locked up, or just simply not allowed to run is one of them, he is already out of one state, and maybe that would not matter all that much, but if a few more states follow up, it would not make sense for him to run.

Secondly, Biden is too old, and I mean like really old, and seems like he is not fully up there, if he gets some sort of sickness that is beyond recoverable, then it may cause him to not run, or not even be able to run. Aside from these type of situations where they can't, there is no way these two are not getting the nominations.

[Hispo]

To be fair, there is really no candidates aside from Biden or Trump, those are the ones that will fight in the end. There are two situations of course that could change this, what could this be? Trump getting locked up, or just simply not allowed to run is one of them, he is already out of one state, and maybe that would not matter all that much, but if a few more states follow up, it would not make sense for him to run.

Secondly, Biden is too old, and I mean like really old, and seems like he is not fully up there, if he gets some sort of sickness that is beyond recoverable, then it may cause him to not run, or not even be able to run. Aside from these type of situations where they can't, there is no way these two are not getting the nominations.

I agree, though you must consider that while those situation you mentioned can be very unlikely to happen, they are still possible. In the case of Trump, the choice of removing him from the ballot will completely depend on the Supreme Court of the United States, which is likely to order him to stay on the ballot.
In the case of Biden, he may be of an advanced age, though that is rather a talking point which is used by the Republican party to attack him, they rather to talk about it instead of economics.
I would have wished Biden to have more foes in the Democrat nomination, but the media ignored most of them. It is kind of ridiculous. Even if Biden for some reason was replaced with someone younger and more talkative, it would be positive for the Democrat party, the polls may suggest the talking point of his age may actually have reached the opinions of some of the Democrats voters.

[Betwrong]

~

Yes, I remember you posted about your small bet which turned out well, so decided to cash out.
Joe Biden is the logical candidate for this incoming elections, but you must be aware the American politics are going though a very difficult and weird stage where facts and logic do not completely matter anymore to advance within the world of polítics. If this was a normal election in the United States, then Trump would not even be the anticipated winner of the Republican primaries. Back some years ago, some presidential candidate being indicted once would have been translated into the death of their political career, instead of it we see the contrary.
Because of the precedents Trump has managed to establish (which could have been considered impossible before) I am still holding myself from betting in favor of Joe Biden, I may expect some months to pass by before deciding what to do.

Also, because of the importance of this elections and how much they are being publicized in social Media and the regular media, I would not be surprised if the volume of bets out reached the level of previous years and presidential elections.

I just heard the other day Jordan Peterson saying that everybody would forget about Tramp by now, but all this fuss over him in the latter months did the impossible: he's back on top. His popularity has grown big time, but being popular is not enough for becoming the President of the United States. That's why Bruce Willis was never considered a worthy candidate.