who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections?

[Sithara007]

In direct confrontation with the federal government, Texas governor Greg Abbott has signed the bill SB4, which would make border crossings unlawful and an offense that comes with imprisonment. Republican states such as Arizona and Texas have been rebelling against the Biden policies for sometime, as they are bearing the brunt of the illegal immigration onslaught. Biden will move against the bill, and this will further polarize the electorate ahead of the 2024 POTUS elections. And more importantly, it puts moderate Democrats in a tough situation.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67753877

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[nullama]

~snip~
If no one wants Trump anymore, why is he the leading GOP presidential nominee according to surveys among Republicans? Also, you say that the Republicans will win the election, however, it will certainly be very difficult if Trump was not the running candidate. I would speculate that they will lose without Trump.

Also, has the primaries started already? The thread creator should post them.

It seems to be about 50-50 really.

Even in the latest vote to not allow him the vote was extremely close.

I'm not sure what is going to happen, but Trump definitely gets the most attention. I would even say he gets more attention that the POTUS these days...

[Hispo]

In direct confrontation with the federal government, Texas governor Greg Abbott has signed the bill SB4, which would make border crossings unlawful and an offense that comes with imprisonment. Republican states such as Arizona and Texas have been rebelling against the Biden policies for sometime, as they are bearing the brunt of the illegal immigration onslaught. Biden will move against the bill, and this will further polarize the electorate ahead of the 2024 POTUS elections. And more importantly, it puts moderate Democrats in a tough situation.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-67753877

I did not completely understand the new law. I had hear about it, though. But I don't fully understand whether the Mexican government will collaborate with the imprisonment of those who try to illegally cross into the United States or not.
I ask because even if Republicans would be in favor of throwing people into prisons because they violated the immigration law, one must wonder to what extent the average citizen of Texas is willing to use their tax money to keep foreign nationals in their system of prisons.


In other News:
Donald Trump is facing exclusion from the voting ballot in the state of Colorado. It is still an ongoing news, but if there is something to anticipate from it is that Donald will get even more support from the fact there has been attempts to legally exclude him from being a valid candidate for the presidential election or the primaries of the party.
Obviously, now the betting and the stakes are put on the chances the Supreme Court of the United States steps forward with their decision to either allow or disqualify Trump.
I expect some civil unrest in the case he actually gets disqualified by the SCOTUS, what a weird times to live in...

[STT]

The exclusion can be contested, someone pointed out that the news ironically could further help Trump gain the narrative of being suppressed and since its a common factor with every party and modern democracy that any candidate can lose from apathy a lack of people who actually turn up to cast their vote when required;  putting fire in the bellies of potential supports giving them a story to cast the good fight against etc.  this can actually help more then it will harm Trumps campaign.
   Its nonsense but so is alot of modern politics in effect, you ask millions of people to decide complex decisions on various economic and international diplomatic factors completely outside their normal scope of interest and instead it can become a circus with arbitrary or emotional team voting.   Personally I find it hard to believe Trump can win yet last I heard its unlikely anyone can mass similar figures, thats why I think in a years time Biden/Democratic remains odds on favorite across the board.

[Sithara007]

In other News:
Donald Trump is facing exclusion from the voting ballot in the state of Colorado. It is still an ongoing news, but if there is something to anticipate from it is that Donald will get even more support from the fact there has been attempts to legally exclude him from being a valid candidate for the presidential election or the primaries of the party.
Obviously, now the betting and the stakes are put on the chances the Supreme Court of the United States steps forward with their decision to either allow or disqualify Trump.
I expect some civil unrest in the case he actually gets disqualified by the SCOTUS, what a weird times to live in...

All this drama will end up giving more mileage to Donald Trump. Removing a candidate from running for election is something that usually happens in authoritarian countries such as North Korea and Russia. If the Democrats are moving towards such a system, then it means that they are afraid of competition and want to ban the opposition. Democrats can't decide who will be the candidate from the GOP. And the most laughable thing is that they are doing this in Colorado, a state where Trump has minimal chances of winning.

[uneng]

It seems to be about 50-50 really.

Even in the latest vote to not allow him the vote was extremely close.

I'm not sure what is going to happen, but Trump definitely gets the most attention. I would even say he gets more attention that the POTUS these days...

Yes, nothing has really changed. Who voted for democrats in 2020 will still vote for them again in 2024, while those who voted for republicans will repeat the dose. People are convicted or alienated enough to not change any of their stances along the years. The phenomeon of internet just intensified political positions of the citizens of every countries in general. In the previous decades, we had more diversification of results and proposals from one election to another, but now it's the same thing (or the same bullshit) going on since 2016.

People keep repeating the same jargons like parrots and idolizing politicians as they didn't have anything better to do on their lives. After all, this is going to be another unpredictable election decided on the slight margin of few percents, although it's not an exclusive north american situation: the whole continent is facing this quite often on their presidential polls! Let's see if Trump has what it needs to make a comeback!

[Hirose UK]

In other News:
Donald Trump is facing exclusion from the voting ballot in the state of Colorado. It is still an ongoing news, but if there is something to anticipate from it is that Donald will get even more support from the fact there has been attempts to legally exclude him from being a valid candidate for the presidential election or the primaries of the party.
Obviously, now the betting and the stakes are put on the chances the Supreme Court of the United States steps forward with their decision to either allow or disqualify Trump.
I expect some civil unrest in the case he actually gets disqualified by the SCOTUS, what a weird times to live in...

I heard about this news circulating some time ago, but this has indeed become a debate among several levels of US society, especially those who are sympathizers or supporters of Trump.
It just that there is big possibility that riots or demonstrators will break out if in the future there is decision by the United States Supreme Court that takes firm action in disqualifying legitimate presidential election candidates.
Often there are debates and problems that end in riots or supporters of one side of a particular party hold large demonstrations to be able to protest against several policies that are not appropriate.
There are also several parties, this problem occurred because there were certain parties who started this problem to be able to bring down Trump and make him unable to continue as an election candidate because Trump is quite strong candidate with really solid supporters.

But until now there has been no clear decision and there is no other recent news about the problems that Trump is experiencing, and I think the United States Supreme Court will also consider many aspects to issue decision that will be taken.
I sure that the Supreme Court of the United States will definitely be able to determine the decisions taken very well and of course there will be various efforts that will be made to prevent undesirable things from happening, such as riots among demonstrators which could possibly break out at any time.

[Hispo]

In other News:
Donald Trump is facing exclusion from the voting ballot in the state of Colorado. It is still an ongoing news, but if there is something to anticipate from it is that Donald will get even more support from the fact there has been attempts to legally exclude him from being a valid candidate for the presidential election or the primaries of the party.
Obviously, now the betting and the stakes are put on the chances the Supreme Court of the United States steps forward with their decision to either allow or disqualify Trump.
I expect some civil unrest in the case he actually gets disqualified by the SCOTUS, what a weird times to live in...

I heard about this news circulating some time ago, but this has indeed become a debate among several levels of US society, especially those who are sympathizers or supporters of Trump.
It just that there is big possibility that riots or demonstrators will break out if in the future there is decision by the United States Supreme Court that takes firm action in disqualifying legitimate presidential election candidates.
Often there are debates and problems that end in riots or supporters of one side of a particular party hold large demonstrations to be able to protest against several policies that are not appropriate.
There are also several parties, this problem occurred because there were certain parties who started this problem to be able to bring down Trump and make him unable to continue as an election candidate because Trump is quite strong candidate with really solid supporters.

But until now there has been no clear decision and there is no other recent news about the problems that Trump is experiencing, and I think the United States Supreme Court will also consider many aspects to issue decision that will be taken.
I sure that the Supreme Court of the United States will definitely be able to determine the decisions taken very well and of course there will be various efforts that will be made to prevent undesirable things from happening, such as riots among demonstrators which could possibly break out at any time.

Actually. Keeping in mind what happened back during the pandemic and the unlawful management of George Floyd, I think the United States does not have much of a good experience handling situations which can lead towards riots and civil unrest in the country. The Supreme Court will likely rule in favor of Trump.
Also, in the very unlikely scenario they actually decide Trump cannot run as president because he participated in insurrection, I wonder what would happen to the stake of those who betted in favor of him on casinos like Stake. I assume that those casinos will wait until the last minute until Joe Biden or any other candidate gets elected before declaring winners, losers and settle the money in the accounts of those who won the bet. Otherwise, it would be problematic, in case some revesal happens.

The Democrat candidate would not change, that is for sure, it will continue to be Biden. Though, Nikki has gained so much Stream and backing in her campaign that she has more chances to beat Joe Biden than DeSantis, would Trump be revomed from the ballot.

[FanEagle]

If there are enough states that does this like Colarado did, then there are two possibilities. One, either Trump still gets the nomination and they will do their best but they will definitely lose because without being on the ballot then you can't win, and enough states means you are going to be guaranteed to lose, so they will just chant election interference even though it's known that he won't be there a year earlier, and yet they didn't do anything about it. Or they will pick someone else, which is the smart thing to do.

The reality is that we are talking about laws here, and if you break a law, you can't be the president, it is not election interference, it is literally what the law says, but you can't explain this to republicans.

[Sithara007]

If there are enough states that does this like Colarado did, then there are two possibilities. One, either Trump still gets the nomination and they will do their best but they will definitely lose because without being on the ballot then you can't win, and enough states means you are going to be guaranteed to lose, so they will just chant election interference even though it's known that he won't be there a year earlier, and yet they didn't do anything about it. Or they will pick someone else, which is the smart thing to do.

The reality is that we are talking about laws here, and if you break a law, you can't be the president, it is not election interference, it is literally what the law says, but you can't explain this to republicans.

Well.. the election system in the United States is a bit complicated. They follow the electoral college system. So even if Trump is not there in the ballot in most of the states, he can put a proxy candidate who will transfer the electoral college votes to him. Also, does the Colorado ruling means that Trump can't be even a write-in candidate in that state? BTW, what are the chances that Trump will not be on the ballot in any of the states where he is leading currently, such as Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania or Texas?

[Hispo]

If there are enough states that does this like Colarado did, then there are two possibilities. One, either Trump still gets the nomination and they will do their best but they will definitely lose because without being on the ballot then you can't win, and enough states means you are going to be guaranteed to lose, so they will just chant election interference even though it's known that he won't be there a year earlier, and yet they didn't do anything about it. Or they will pick someone else, which is the smart thing to do.

The reality is that we are talking about laws here, and if you break a law, you can't be the president, it is not election interference, it is literally what the law says, but you can't explain this to republicans.

Well.. the election system in the United States is a bit complicated. They follow the electoral college system. So even if Trump is not there in the ballot in most of the states, he can put a proxy candidate who will transfer the electoral college votes to him. Also, does the Colorado ruling means that Trump can't be even a write-in candidate in that state? BTW, what are the chances that Trump will not be on the ballot in any of the states where he is leading currently, such as Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania or Texas?

Colorado is not even a state Trump was counting on to win the presidential election next year, by the way, as far as I have investigated, Colorado is a blue state which college votes will likely go to Biden. The importance of this lawsue against the existence of Donald Trump in the ballot is more about the precedent which is being established for Trump to be excluded in other states which are more important for him to defeat Biden.
This is a very bizarre situation, to be honest, if things continue to go this direction the Supreme court of the USA are who are going to have to power to either downplay the exclusion or not. Just think about it for a moment, a handful of people in the USA could easily completely remove Trump off the ballot nationaly, paving the road for Nikki Haley or De Santis to absorb all his support for themselves.
If I had to bet, I am very sure the SCOTUS won't dare to exclude Trump of the ballot because if the dangerous implications of doing so. On the other hand, Trump had already capitalized the support of moderate Republicans who will side with him because they may view this as a blatant violation of the people to choose their rulers... Each step which is taken against Trump, only increases his chances of getting away with the presidency, it seems democrats do not acknowledge it yet.

[Huppercase]

All this drama will end up giving more mileage to Donald Trump. Removing a candidate from running for election is something that usually happens in authoritarian countries such as North Korea and Russia. If the Democrats are moving towards such a system, then it means that they are afraid of competition and want to ban the opposition. Democrats can't decide who will be the candidate from the GOP. And the most laughable thing is that they are doing this in Colorado, a state where Trump has minimal chances of winning.

I have learn something about politic, emotion is out of the game and that is what some of us don't understand. If Donald Trump is guilty of the charges, there is no need for the side talk because he can't do anything but this are supreme court judgement, he can go further to the federal supreme court to appeal his case and I believe he will be heard and such matter is something they can't play because the world is wathcing and they wouldn't jeopardize the reputation of the judicial in the US just because they don't want to see Trump contest for 2024 election.

I don't like Biden system of government but definitely, Trump is not what I look forward to win because the US doesn't revolve around this two, there should be other candidate that can take the task and give America the best they need and not this two using lives and properties for their own selfish interest, I can't forget Trump and the dramas he made the world face during his tenure even though some how I like his leadership for been feared but he talk too much, there is a way North Korea is been fear but doens't talk much.

[ChiBitCTy]

All this drama will end up giving more mileage to Donald Trump. Removing a candidate from running for election is something that usually happens in authoritarian countries such as North Korea and Russia. If the Democrats are moving towards such a system, then it means that they are afraid of competition and want to ban the opposition. Democrats can't decide who will be the candidate from the GOP. And the most laughable thing is that they are doing this in Colorado, a state where Trump has minimal chances of winning.

I have learn something about politic, emotion is out of the game and that is what some of us don't understand. If Donald Trump is guilty of the charges, there is no need for the side talk because he can't do anything but this are supreme court judgement, he can go further to the federal supreme court to appeal his case and I believe he will be heard and such matter is something they can't play because the world is wathcing and they wouldn't jeopardize the reputation of the judicial in the US just because they don't want to see Trump contest for 2024 election.

I don't like Biden system of government but definitely, Trump is not what I look forward to win because the US doesn't revolve around this two, there should be other candidate that can take the task and give America the best they need and not this two using lives and properties for their own selfish interest, I can't forget Trump and the dramas he made the world face during his tenure even though some how I like his leadership for been feared but he talk too much, there is a way North Korea is been fear but doens't talk much.

Your point is well taken.  To me I think it's insane to like either of these candidates, and the fact that it's already a forgone conclusion that it'll be Biden vs Trump (I have no doubts that Trump will still end up being able to run) is insane.  They are both losing their minds and unfit for office.  This is what's going to make this race so difficult to bet on.  If you're not in the US then it's probably difficult to grasp how much damage these two dinosaurs have done to the nation. 

This is truly going to be the most difficult election to bet on IMO. As of right now it's a complete dart throw.  But, we'll see how thing shake out in what is sure to be miserable time for us Americans.

[Sithara007]

Colorado is not even a state Trump was counting on to win the presidential election next year, by the way, as far as I have investigated, Colorado is a blue state which college votes will likely go to Biden. The importance of this lawsue against the existence of Donald Trump in the ballot is more about the precedent which is being established for Trump to be excluded in other states which are more important for him to defeat Biden.
This is a very bizarre situation, to be honest, if things continue to go this direction the Supreme court of the USA are who are going to have to power to either downplay the exclusion or not. Just think about it for a moment, a handful of people in the USA could easily completely remove Trump off the ballot nationaly, paving the road for Nikki Haley or De Santis to absorb all his support for themselves.
If I had to bet, I am very sure the SCOTUS won't dare to exclude Trump of the ballot because if the dangerous implications of doing so. On the other hand, Trump had already capitalized the support of moderate Republicans who will side with him because they may view this as a blatant violation of the people to choose their rulers... Each step which is taken against Trump, only increases his chances of getting away with the presidency, it seems democrats do not acknowledge it yet.

SCOTUS has a solid conservative majority of 6-3, and out of the six conservative judges three were appointed by Trump himself. Given this, I am not sure whether SCOTUS will uphold the decision to remove him from ballot. In the end, Democrats will fail in their aim and it will only provide more ammunition to Trump to carry on with his campaign. And this is not the right time for all this legal drama. Biden is well behind Trump in nation-wide opinion polls, and people will interpret all this as a last ditch effort from Biden to avoid a defeat to Trump.

[LUCKMCFLY]

All this drama will end up giving more mileage to Donald Trump. Removing a candidate from running for election is something that usually happens in authoritarian countries such as North Korea and Russia. If the Democrats are moving towards such a system, then it means that they are afraid of competition and want to ban the opposition. Democrats can't decide who will be the candidate from the GOP. And the most laughable thing is that they are doing this in Colorado, a state where Trump has minimal chances of winning.

I have learn something about politic, emotion is out of the game and that is what some of us don't understand. If Donald Trump is guilty of the charges, there is no need for the side talk because he can't do anything but this are supreme court judgement, he can go further to the federal supreme court to appeal his case and I believe he will be heard and such matter is something they can't play because the world is wathcing and they wouldn't jeopardize the reputation of the judicial in the US just because they don't want to see Trump contest for 2024 election.

I don't like Biden system of government but definitely, Trump is not what I look forward to win because the US doesn't revolve around this two, there should be other candidate that can take the task and give America the best they need and not this two using lives and properties for their own selfish interest, I can't forget Trump and the dramas he made the world face during his tenure even though some how I like his leadership for been feared but he talk too much, there is a way North Korea is been fear but doens't talk much.

I see this from the point of view that they are doing everything so that Trump falls because he is a very good candidate, it cannot be Denied that the guy has his Followers , with respect to Biden I see that he is a gentleman, what has he done ? things are fine, he has not been a person who attacks others, but rather he has kept things in sound judgment and things can be very Decisive if this Trump can seize power , now what About Trump and his Cases, is something that sometimes doesn't give me a very good feeling, I think similar to what they have said, that they are seeking to disable him, not only or do they do it in North Korea and Russia , they also do it in Venezuela, it is a fact that things when They are trying to do things for a better path , things are beginning to be Fixed , I believe that the Democrats have to do something, they have to accept that things will happen with Trump and that the best person wins, they have to leave their fear behind , because This practice of these things is not nice at all and is seen very badly in the USA.

The USA is known for being one of the countries with the most freedoms in the world, and it can be the example for many more and follow it as they are, in part I have always been curious to live in that country but seeing how difficult it is for companies Accepting engineers from South America thinking that those from there are better is something I don't like , Something like that happens in Europe, and that's something that doesn't add up, well at least to me, because that's what cultures are about and what they can do. a president from his chair will tell the difference, I understand that right now the US system is very Problematic with Everything that has to do with illegal immigration and all this, but basically I would not like to live in a country where I have to clean floors , Bathrooms, washing dishes because I Studied a strong career , and it is not because of the work , because work does not dishonor , it is because I told myself , if one day I go to work in these Countries , I think they really have to value what I Have done in my life. career and so that they realize that I know, then immigration policies must Undoubtedly change to accept people who are Prepared and not let Anyone enter, only those who Contribute to the country with the respective visas.

[Hispo]

-

SCOTUS has a solid conservative majority of 6-3, and out of the six conservative judges three were appointed by Trump himself. Given this, I am not sure whether SCOTUS will uphold the decision to remove him from ballot. In the end, Democrats will fail in their aim and it will only provide more ammunition to Trump to carry on with his campaign. And this is not the right time for all this legal drama. Biden is well behind Trump in nation-wide opinion polls, and people will interpret all this as a last ditch effort from Biden to avoid a defeat to Trump.

Actually, we could rationally assume Biden does not have actually anything to do with these lawsuits to keep Trump put the ballot in some specifics state for the presidential elections, I am not sure how far one is supposed to do in order to achieve those lawsuits to happen, but I assume anyone with a good lawyer can come forward and try to present their case before the judges and the supreme court of those states.
Regardless of the actual involvement of Biden and his administration on what it is going on with these legal attempts, I completely agree with you that in the end will completely backfire on Biden and his presidential run. If I was in charge of the democrat party I would try to see if it would be possible to replace Biden with a different and younger person, the advantages would be that much of the Republican propaganda and advertisement have focused so much onto Biden and his mistakes/weaknesses that a new canditates who would be willing to frontally attack Trump would get rid of much of the arguments the Republicans have against Biden and his age.

Have you noticed how Biden completely avoids to talk about Trump up until he has to in front of the people when they have to hold the presidential debate? While Trump talks and rallies his supporters against Biden in any occasion he has the chance. It is like the night and the day, de republica party still believe they can deal with Trump as if was a normal politician from the establishment.   

[FanEagle]

When it comes to Trump and the amount of votes he might get, do not forget that he was the last republican president, do you really think that people really like Biden? I mean he is the president, he got the most votes, he got the EC votes too, and yet I have never seen too many people who liked him, they just voted for him so that Trump wouldn't be the president, plus he was the two term vice president as well.

On the topic of Trump, it's the same logic, Trump does have a lot of people who like him obviously, but he was the last president so he gets a lot of credit for that, and opponents may have trouble getting the nomination against the last sitting president, on top of that, there are TON OF people who would vote for Trump, just so Biden is not the president again, same logic.

[nullama]

When it comes to Trump and the amount of votes he might get, do not forget that he was the last republican president, do you really think that people really like Biden? I mean he is the president, he got the most votes, he got the EC votes too, and yet I have never seen too many people who liked him, they just voted for him so that Trump wouldn't be the president, plus he was the two term vice president as well.

On the topic of Trump, it's the same logic, Trump does have a lot of people who like him obviously, but he was the last president so he gets a lot of credit for that, and opponents may have trouble getting the nomination against the last sitting president, on top of that, there are TON OF people who would vote for Trump, just so Biden is not the president again, same logic.

There is a huge amount of people talking about Trump, and he is not even the president of the US.

I reckon he actually is getting even more attention that POTUS.

And I think Trump will be around 50% of the votes when the eelction comes around.

[Betwrong]

~

Maybe the average bettor does not even care about those kind of news when comes to where to put their money. If the news is not directly related to Biden and his presidential bid, the odds won't move at all.
I also agree on what you say about when we may have a better time with this kind of betting market if we wait for the political campaign to reach the stages of debates between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, whatever they say on the debate stage can heavily influence on the decision of the voters and also on the odds of the markets.

I have also noticed that this news is not being spread at all by corporate or big media who have some affiliation with the political left, as expected.

Yes, the debates can impact the situation big time. Actually, it's hard to imagine Trump winning the debates in the eyes of the viewers, to be honest. Well, his hardcore supporters will not change their mind whatever happens, that's for sure, but people who are hesitant will take Biden's side I'm sure.

And for now gamblers vote with their bets for Trump more and more:



Many people think "Trump is the safe bet", even in this very thread, and I don't blame them, seeing what's going on around, but I personally think, oyu bet on Trump and you simply lose bet, that's all.

[STT]

There is no established connection from Trump to any illegal actions that is the biggest contention.   You dont have to like Trumps words and speeches but to hold him criminally responsible for saying something politically would be the wrong route to take in terms of free speech and democracy overall.  Trump knows that, its the game he is playing but its also likely correct no judgement against him will hold without an actual full conviction criminally.  So far as I can tell he organised none of the actual physical actions that took place or had the intent to do so, none of his staff either.  Until they can prove a link, you cannot prosecute for words or bar him without that conviction it will be overturned.    This isnt Trump gate, he appears less guilty then Nixon at the time he left office for example going way back.
   Saying that I still dont think Trump has a chance of actual re-election as he has lost the swing voters it appears.    Just having Republican support is not enough and not all of them are on his side anyway again he has some failure on his hands for sure;  I cant remember anyone losing after 1 term and coming back but never say never.   The bet for now is does he get the Rep ticket and for now I think so but also I would bet against Trump there after.   On that basis I would hope the Biden odds go up slightly but mostly thats how I would favor betting on a long term or 2024 year end bet.