who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections?

[Sithara007]

Out of the 12 recent polls listed on RealClearPolitics, Donald Trump is leading in 11 polls, while Joe Biden is leading on one from Economist/YouGov. On average, Trump has a lead of +2.4%. This is an all-time high for Trump, ever since he joined active politics in 2016. The border situation will result in a Democrat wipeout in 2024, if there are no drastic changes. When a left-wing pollster puts Trump ahead by 10 points in a lean-blue state like Michigan, you know how bad is the situation for the Democrats. But what surprises me is the fact that the Dems are yet to wake up from their deep slumber.

[1715151510]

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[FanEagle]

To be fair polls are not always that good to predict what will happen, but it is also quite clear that Trump voters are a lot more fired up than Biden ones. That's the thing about politics at USA, it is not about who is a better candidate, it is about which candidate is capable of bringing more people to vote, that's how Biden won most recently.

Trump got the second highest votes in American history, more than anyone else aside from Biden the same very election, Biden got the most votes by like 15+ million, not because Biden was great, you need to be crazy to think that Biden is the best president USA ever had, absolutely not, the reason was that people hated Trump, and still do but it's been 4 years so they hate him a little less. So if Trump could get (and he could) people to go out and vote, he may win easily.

[LUCKMCFLY]

~snip~

It's true, or I know, but there are people who have a wrong idea about this, because when it comes to politics, they believe that Presidents and government Policies are going to focus on reducing the crime that exists in a country, or things simlilares, it is not like that, and although they have everything to be able to generate the best of all the Security of the hands , we must look at other things that are more focused on the good, for example the proeblmande always being the economic one, inflation as high as there is, of how the FED is capable of no longer supporting the makeup that exists, then these are things that can manifest themselves, if in this order of Ideas we are going to think that this big country can handle everything and that Things work out as many of us believe, but that is no longer the case, politics in the USA is very similar to that of South America , it is actually very dirty, among the politicians themselves there is very bad anger, they wage war among themselves. , there is no fair game, I think that ideas are something that has Disappeared, for me the candidates from the USA only look for pioder.

They do not care about the common good of any of their inhabitants, only reaching power to be able to dominate, that is what I see, that is why in the US things are not like before, even though it is a country where it is seen that economy is very strong, and they are the maximum in their hegemony. The truth is that at any moment the Bubble that is your economy could burst again, I don't see that there is much confidence , as soon as you see what happens between the behavior of the USD vs Eur one can draw conclusions, and they are not good, I really don't I like what the dollar is doing so far, that's why I want to see the things that can be generated, now when we think that the USA has strong immigration policies, there are none , there is a strong problem especially in New York With this, how could one of those candidates fix that problem? without Deporting.

Every state leader will definitely do and give his best for the progress of the country and also the gaps towards all levels of society in it, whatever the matter, there must be solution and efforts will be made.
But not everything will be considered correct and can be liked by all levels of society because on average the efforts made by the government in any country will definitely cause controversy and rejection from society even though they have good intentions.
I know what Biden really means, but he can't win the hearts of the people and he can't fulfill some of the people demands, which of course are different.
Every time Biden does there is always conflict between the people and this is why he loses more votes and he may do several things to regain the sympathy of the US people.
From all this it looks very dirty, but that is what happens in political competition, in fact almost all countries that have presidential democratic systems do this.
But just look now, Trump is the one who can take this opportunity and he can win over more people to support him, he has an advantage in terms of supporters and also seems to have a large community behind him.
I was surprised to see the increasingly solid turnout of Trump supporters.

The US is developed country, where the economic standard of living is even and capitalist income is high, plus the use of developing technology can provide benefits to society.
But unfortunately some government leaders take advantage of conditions like this for their personal interests and they only care about power to be able to dominate every advantage.

​Well, you must emphasize that the United States has a lot to do with its rulers , at least they have not been as corrupt as some rulers in South America , especially in Venezuela, have been that it has been a very rich country by Nature and now things are things Things from evil to worse with a corporate governance where he does not give his People , and there is no technology or advance of any kind, when we talk about the United States in their government systems , they can be seen with more levels, since things It may be Very well Constituted because when it comes to making comparisons, US presidents have been very Intelligent, there are many who Complain about the Biden government system because they have let many migrants Enter , and the Government does not participate in certain wars In which he always uses prominence, in this order of ideas we can see that the management of a president who was Trump , where he made a very good Generation , and made a large part of the people love him.

Now the things , what happens in the world of Politics with Trump is a Strong problem , I see that the news always focuses on judgments , with Judges , with cases that open it and he no longer want to go to Any kind of judgment , everyone wants to see Trump bad Something good, because they turn everything and make it look bad, which is Like a war that they have announced politically, so as not to leave anything that can have access to the normal Candidacy like the Other Candidates that may be Worried about Demonstrating who is the best , They try to put more and more stones on the road, so I think it is that you can forgive it, they are Raising it and giving him a great level as a person who solves and they do not can´t him to do anything ,  Although there are powers that want to see him Disabled .

[Sithara007]

To be fair polls are not always that good to predict what will happen, but it is also quite clear that Trump voters are a lot more fired up than Biden ones. That's the thing about politics at USA, it is not about who is a better candidate, it is about which candidate is capable of bringing more people to vote, that's how Biden won most recently.

Trump got the second highest votes in American history, more than anyone else aside from Biden the same very election, Biden got the most votes by like 15+ million, not because Biden was great, you need to be crazy to think that Biden is the best president USA ever had, absolutely not, the reason was that people hated Trump, and still do but it's been 4 years so they hate him a little less. So if Trump could get (and he could) people to go out and vote, he may win easily.

Back in 2020, Trump got 74.2 million votes and Biden got 81.3 million. The lead was like 7.1 million votes or around 4-5%. According to most polls, Trump is now leading by 2-3% votes. Back in 2020, Biden got 306 electoral vote compared to 232 for Trump. But Trump can achieve 300+ votes with a smaller lead, due to the electoral system in the United States. For example, Trump got less votes compared to Hillary in 2016, and still managed to win 304 electoral votes compared to 227 for his opponent. If he is actually leading the polls by 2-3%, then it is going to be a landslide for Trump.

[Hispo]

in case some of you have not heard, it seems a couple of days ago some democrat staffer was caught having homosexual sex within the facilities of the house of representatives or the senate, he was actually recording himself having sex with his partner.
I have noticed there have been a lot of republican voters talking about it on Twitter/X and I wonder if those news are going to hurt the democrat party somehow.
Granted, most of the people who is homophobic or who are not so open about same sex relationships are Republican voters, but keeping in mind this incoming elections could be also be decided by centrists or swing voters, then these kind of surreal and disrespectful news could increase the odds of Donald Trump, compared to those of Joe Biden.

I wonder what would be the reaction of the people in your country if something like that happened in your country, someone recording a gay sex tape in the floors of your parliament/congress when noone was supposed to be there. Thoughts?

[bbc.reporter]

Out of the 12 recent polls listed on RealClearPolitics, Donald Trump is leading in 11 polls, while Joe Biden is leading on one from Economist/YouGov. On average, Trump has a lead of +2.4%. This is an all-time high for Trump, ever since he joined active politics in 2016. The border situation will result in a Democrat wipeout in 2024, if there are no drastic changes. When a left-wing pollster puts Trump ahead by 10 points in a lean-blue state like Michigan, you know how bad is the situation for the Democrats. But what surprises me is the fact that the Dems are yet to wake up from their deep slumber.

It is not only the border situation. There is also the Biden administration's conduct on Russia's war against Ukraine. I reckon Trump might have been more diplomatic and would not have imposed sanctions against Russia. However, he would have been more hard handed on China which might cause other types of international problems hhehehe.

In any case, if you want to make some money on Trump, there is a mugshot NFT collection. I am quite certain there is also a Trump memecoin created hehehehee.



Former US President Donald Trump revealed a new NFT collection Tuesday, the “Mugshot edition.” The collection is a reference to his August 2023 indictment. Shortly after the announcement, the price of the former president’s previous NFTs began to rise.

Source https://watcher.guru/news/donald-trump-reveals-new-mugshot-nfts

[Betwrong]

~

To me, it is a signal that bettors and users of casinos had a early impression about Trump chances, they may have assumed that even though Trump could easily secure his nomination for the Republican party, they did not actually see a reliable Presidential candidate to take over the Biden's Administration. It seems that now things have changed in the midset of those but betted for Biden and those who were not considering to do so for Trump.
Basically, many of those people wait for the polling to give them some clue on where they are supposed to put their money, in the case they wish to have bigger and better chances, however, I have come to the conclusion the American political landscape is going through an era where polling cannot be as trusted as people used to. After all, we have seen several times in a row how polls give Republicans an advantage over Democrats in the lastest local and midterm elections, fruitlessly to the dismay of Republicans.

So I do not know what to make out of this, bettors may feel this incoming election will be different or there has been some rumors on both candidates' campaign strategies I have not read about.

Maybe most bettors don't know yet either. Actually, what we have right now regarding the odds



is a typical situation when it's hard to say who's going to win. We can, of course, place our bets now, just for fun, but probably it's better to wait until we are closer to to the Elections, but then again the odds for the most probable candidate will be low then.

[Hispo]

~

To me, it is a signal that bettors and users of casinos had a early impression about Trump chances, they may have assumed that even though Trump could easily secure his nomination for the Republican party, they did not actually see a reliable Presidential candidate to take over the Biden's Administration. It seems that now things have changed in the midset of those but betted for Biden and those who were not considering to do so for Trump.
Basically, many of those people wait for the polling to give them some clue on where they are supposed to put their money, in the case they wish to have bigger and better chances, however, I have come to the conclusion the American political landscape is going through an era where polling cannot be as trusted as people used to. After all, we have seen several times in a row how polls give Republicans an advantage over Democrats in the lastest local and midterm elections, fruitlessly to the dismay of Republicans.

So I do not know what to make out of this, bettors may feel this incoming election will be different or there has been some rumors on both candidates' campaign strategies I have not read about.

Maybe most bettors don't know yet either. Actually, what we have right now regarding the odds



is a typical situation when it's hard to say who's going to win. We can, of course, place our bets now, just for fun, but probably it's better to wait until we are closer to to the Elections, but then again the odds for the most probable candidate will be low then.

Maybe the average bettor does not even care about those kind of news when comes to where to put their money. If the news is not directly related to Biden and his presidential bid, the odds won't move at all.
I also agree on what you say about when we may have a better time with this kind of betting market if we wait for the political campaign to reach the stages of debates between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, whatever they say on the debate stage can heavily influence on the decision of the voters and also on the odds of the markets.

I have also noticed that this news is not being spread at all by corporate or big media who have some affiliation with the political left, as expected.

[EarnOnVictor]

Out of the 12 recent polls listed on RealClearPolitics, Donald Trump is leading in 11 polls, while Joe Biden is leading on one from Economist/YouGov. On average, Trump has a lead of +2.4%. This is an all-time high for Trump, ever since he joined active politics in 2016. The border situation will result in a Democrat wipeout in 2024, if there are no drastic changes. When a left-wing pollster puts Trump ahead by 10 points in a lean-blue state like Michigan, you know how bad is the situation for the Democrats. But what surprises me is the fact that the Dems are yet to wake up from their deep slumber.

This doesn't call for any celebration but weeping, for him to have gotten that much points to the fact that people still appreciate someone who behaved like an authoritarian, anti-humanitarian, someone who undermined the rule of law and democracy and also spit ill messages of division in his mouth. Yes, the world is still voting for him, that is how appreciative people are of odd things and I don't blame them, I only blame their idiocy. Donald Trump is such that needs no introduction anymore. From his campaign that time to his ruling and post-ruling remarks, one should know that he's dramatic, unstable and ungrateful, no wonder he stigmatizes those who joined hands in building America of the forefathers' dreams. I amn't surprised about these polls though as I do not see Trump having such a poll in reality. It's not today we see otherwise in reality.

[Tipstar]

The Biden bannered team have already lost unless something huge unforseen event happens on the US politics.
Legally not allowing Trump to run was a good idea but they don't seem to have same level of influence on judiciary as they have on media.
Another large loss to the hegemony was the buying of Twitter by Musk. Musk has said he'd remain neutral and when there's no Twitter to feed the propoganda, it's hard for the establishment to remain in power. Trump is the safe bet for now.

[Sithara007]

This doesn't call for any celebration but weeping, for him to have gotten that much points to the fact that people still appreciate someone who behaved like an authoritarian, anti-humanitarian, someone who undermined the rule of law and democracy and also spit ill messages of division in his mouth. Yes, the world is still voting for him, that is how appreciative people are of odd things and I don't blame them, I only blame their idiocy. Donald Trump is such that needs no introduction anymore. From his campaign that time to his ruling and post-ruling remarks, one should know that he's dramatic, unstable and ungrateful, no wonder he stigmatizes those who joined hands in building America of the forefathers' dreams. I amn't surprised about these polls though as I do not see Trump having such a poll in reality. It's not today we see otherwise in reality.

This sort of scaremongering is not going to work, as we have seen recently. It worked in 2020, but then people got smarter. Biden's term has been an unmitigated disaster. You can't ask people to vote for Biden, for the sole reason of keeping Trump away from power. Even Democrats have been complaining about the situation at the Mexican border but Biden will not listen. FY 2022 saw a record 2.2 million unauthorized crossings and the figure for FY 2023 will be even higher. And after all this, some people still want to vote for Biden just because they want to keep Trump out of power.

[EluguHcman]

I do not want to play about any form of speculations with the US elections because my ego is wider than what they think with their world powers so I would kindly live a reserved of my energy while expecting to see the election on my gambling streamlines and then I would take a place of my decision in it.

[EarnOnVictor]

This doesn't call for any celebration but weeping, for him to have gotten that much points to the fact that people still appreciate someone who behaved like an authoritarian, anti-humanitarian, someone who undermined the rule of law and democracy and also spit ill messages of division in his mouth. Yes, the world is still voting for him, that is how appreciative people are of odd things and I don't blame them, I only blame their idiocy. Donald Trump is such that needs no introduction anymore. From his campaign that time to his ruling and post-ruling remarks, one should know that he's dramatic, unstable and ungrateful, no wonder he stigmatizes those who joined hands in building America of the forefathers' dreams. I amn't surprised about these polls though as I do not see Trump having such a poll in reality. It's not today we see otherwise in reality.

This sort of scaremongering is not going to work, as we have seen recently. It worked in 2020, but then people got smarter. Biden's term has been an unmitigated disaster. You can't ask people to vote for Biden, for the sole reason of keeping Trump away from power. Even Democrats have been complaining about the situation at the Mexican border but Biden will not listen. FY 2022 saw a record 2.2 million unauthorized crossings and the figure for FY 2023 will be even higher. And after all this, some people still want to vote for Biden just because they want to keep Trump out of power.

Hmmm, what has been the valid fault of Biden in all this? I hear some people saying immigrant this, immigrant that, but in reality, the influx of immigrants is not as bad as they say, and the administration is even trying its best to curb many and keep America safe. But certainly not building a war like the authoritarian and selfish Trump, or you don't know that Trump himself is an immigrant by blood? Simply because he was born in America doesn't exonerate him from that. I know his type, he needs total acceptance, and what they or their family benefits from, they do not like others to benefit from the same.

Nothing about the man has ever made him qualified for the number one president of the world. Trump is only using political gimmicks on you guys and you are really falling for it so fast. The preaching of division can never help a nation, he knows that this could sell well in this current dispensation which is why he is using it on you to find supporters. You know what, if Trump wins this time which is the last time he can ever spend as the US president, he will do little or nothing in this regard, you can mark my word on that, he's only desperate. And the next president after him will again undo most of what he has done again, which makes it effortless. Because such like Trump's ideas can't stand in the US's core values and reasoning, the US is welcoming so far you are not a criminal. And among all the criminals they've caught in the past 4 years, what is the main percentage of the US blood itself? It can't be little. The Yankees too are not innocent.

[Sithara007]

Hmmm, what has been the valid fault of Biden in all this? I hear some people saying immigrant this, immigrant that, but in reality, the influx of immigrants is not as bad as they say, and the administration is even trying its best to curb many and keep America safe. But certainly not building a war like the authoritarian and selfish Trump, or you don't know that Trump himself is an immigrant by blood? Simply because he was born in America doesn't exonerate him from that. I know his type, he needs total acceptance, and what they or their family benefits from, they do not like others to benefit from the same.

What a load of BS!

No one has anything against immigrants. Republicans even encourage legal immigration. USA receives the largest number of legal immigrants every year, and none of the Republican politicians have voiced against this. This is the same tactic from Democrats for some time. You are equating people who patiently go through the legal immigration process and wait their turn, to those criminals who jump the border without any sort of screening. No sane country in the world allows illegal immigration (other than the US). A few months back, Saudi Arabian border guards massacred hundreds of illegal immigrants near the Yemen border.

https://www.hrw.org/report/2023/08/21/they-fired-us-rain/saudi-arabian-mass-killings-ethiopian-migrants-yemen-saudi

[Latviand]

~

Well, I'm not sure if it is a good or a bad thing, but Trump is definitely more "mainstream TV worthy" than the current president of the US.

A lot of people right now care more about what is happening to the Trump case than what is happening in the US itself.

It's a bit crazy I think, but these are the times we are living in.

A lot of people seems to be clamoring to have Trump become the next president, hopefully we get to see that from happening. The US housing is just getting worse and I think that it's that time where a businessman has to get in to manage that problem, not to mention that Biden is just too old to be clinging on to the office. Regarding the Trump case, I think that it's fizzled out entirely. It wouldn't have been this crazy if we didn't let it get this far, if the people were vocal about their problems that the government is pumping out then we would probably see a different path for ourselves but we ended up with all this crazy stuff because we let them go by and we didn't do a thing and now it's too late.

[NotATether]

The Biden bannered team have already lost unless something huge unforseen event happens on the US politics.
Legally not allowing Trump to run was a good idea but they don't seem to have same level of influence on judiciary as they have on media.

Most likely, the republican party will win next election, but it will not be Trump. Nobody likes him anymore, not even Republicans. Only deranged trolls on X support him nowadays.

The fact is that he's not even in the primaries and taking part in any debates, and refuses to sign allegiance to the Republican party unlike all the other candidates.

Another large loss to the hegemony was the buying of Twitter by Musk. Musk has said he'd remain neutral and when there's no Twitter to feed the propoganda, it's hard for the establishment to remain in power. Trump is the safe bet for now.

It certainly does not look like X is staying neutral in any of this but I will leave that thought in the closet.

[Hispo]

Ironically, it seems that the issue of inmigration in the United States could the the final nail on the coffin for Biden and his intention to continue to be the president of the country for other 4 years. At the beginning, I thought sending immigrants to sanctuary cities from Texas was a political show by the governor of that state, but I was proven wrong, as he constantly continues to ship people from the southern border, mayors from big blue cities have started to feel the pressure of having all that people there in their jurisdictions. I even saw a video of the mayor of Detroit bitterly complaining against what Greg Abbott is doing.
I am sure those videos are only going to further encourage Abbott to send more people in those democrat held cities.
The division and conquering part comes when the federal government does not seem to be willing to help those same blue cities, in that sense, the inhabitants of New York, Detroit and other places won't forget and blindly forgive how the federal government (aka Joe Biden) is turning it's back on them and not providing relief from the huge economical stress and charge which is maintaining those thousands and thousands of human beings living in standard conditions.
The Trump message on the border will certainly appeal to those who most feel wronged about the current situation and are within the center of the political spectrum.

[FanEagle]

in case some of you have not heard, it seems a couple of days ago some democrat staffer was caught having homosexual sex within the facilities of the house of representatives or the senate, he was actually recording himself having sex with his partner.
I have noticed there have been a lot of republican voters talking about it on Twitter/X and I wonder if those news are going to hurt the democrat party somehow.
Granted, most of the people who is homophobic or who are not so open about same sex relationships are Republican voters, but keeping in mind this incoming elections could be also be decided by centrists or swing voters, then these kind of surreal and disrespectful news could increase the odds of Donald Trump, compared to those of Joe Biden.

I wonder what would be the reaction of the people in your country if something like that happened in your country, someone recording a gay sex tape in the floors of your parliament/congress when noone was supposed to be there. Thoughts?

This is not really regarding homophobic or not though, is it? I am not American, but if I was American I would vote democrat no matter who, I would always support democrats because they are really doing more progressive thinking then anyone else and the only thing that doesn't change is change itself so I am aware that what we consider moral or ethical right now, may not be moral in 100 years, or what we consider immoral may not be immoral in 100 years, people literally killed Alan Turing for being gay, when he saved UK in such an important war, so we do progress even if you like it or not, today republicans may not go out and say we hate gay people, and the only reason for that is there was a war fought against homophobia for the past 50 years.

However, even with all that in mind, if I saw a video of a man and woman having sex at that place, I would be against that too, it's a political place that means something, not a place to have a relationship in, that's just disrespectful, go do it at any bed you want, not there.

[Hispo]

This is not really regarding homophobic or not though, is it? I am not American, but if I was American I would vote democrat no matter who, I would always support democrats because they are really doing more progressive thinking then anyone else and the only thing that doesn't change is change itself so I am aware that what we consider moral or ethical right now, may not be moral in 100 years, or what we consider immoral may not be immoral in 100 years, people literally killed Alan Turing for being gay, when he saved UK in such an important war, so we do progress even if you like it or not, today republicans may not go out and say we hate gay people, and the only reason for that is there was a war fought against homophobia for the past 50 years.

However, even with all that in mind, if I saw a video of a man and woman having sex at that place, I would be against that too, it's a political place that means something, not a place to have a relationship in, that's just disrespectful, go do it at any bed you want, not there.

There is some component of homophobia with the way the news have spread this last weekend, yes. The Republican voters are trying to picture that happening as a sample of the lack of control the Biden administration has over the institutions and from things like that to continue to happen in official buildings. If you looked for the news and comments on Twitter/X, you will find people talking about how degenerate the government has become. Regardless of whether those people were homosexual or not, they were never supposed to film themselves having sex in such a place. That man was asking to get fired by performing such action, in my opinion.

I am not from the United States either, and I must admit the current state of the Republican party has made very difficult for a centrism to vote for them. Even if Trump's odds continue to raise in the casino, I am not completely sure yet if he will be able to conquer the white house again, the immigration problem and the fact democrats allow these scandals to happen makes me overthink it, though...

[bbc.reporter]

The Biden bannered team have already lost unless something huge unforseen event happens on the US politics.
Legally not allowing Trump to run was a good idea but they don't seem to have same level of influence on judiciary as they have on media.

Most likely, the republican party will win next election, but it will not be Trump. Nobody likes him anymore, not even Republicans. Only deranged trolls on X support him nowadays.

The fact is that he's not even in the primaries and taking part in any debates, and refuses to sign allegiance to the Republican party unlike all the other candidates.

Another large loss to the hegemony was the buying of Twitter by Musk. Musk has said he'd remain neutral and when there's no Twitter to feed the propoganda, it's hard for the establishment to remain in power. Trump is the safe bet for now.

It certainly does not look like X is staying neutral in any of this but I will leave that thought in the closet.

If no one wants Trump anymore, why is he the leading GOP presidential nominee according to surveys among Republicans? Also, you say that the Republicans will win the election, however, it will certainly be very difficult if Trump was not the running candidate. I would speculate that they will lose without Trump.

Also, has the primaries started already? The thread creator should post them.