2024 U.S. Presidential Election Bets!

[Hispo]

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I am aware arbitrage takes the control and keep the odds in equilibrium within the whole crypto ecosystem. There is always people with enough balance in their hands to take advantage even from the slightest differences between a market and another one.
By the way, people treat polls and the betting market differently, some will tell you there is more reality on the betting markets as there is no only people saying who they want or think is going to win the presidency, on the betting markets people need to put money where their mouth is to have a say, otherwise they do not participate. I don't know, but I personally give more credit to betting markets than opinion polls.

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That's just truly sad.

Those people who went for small casino which cannot refund the money probably betted using money they could afford to lose, hopefully.
That is why in the terms of service one is always supposed to take a look on what happens to money when the results are not resolved as initially thought, like this case of Biden dropping out, for example.

[jossiel]

That's just truly sad.

Those people who went for small casino which cannot refund the money probably betted using money they could afford to lose, hopefully.
That is why in the terms of service one is always supposed to take a look on what happens to money when the results are not resolved as initially thought, like this case of Biden dropping out, for example.

I hope so.

That's a money that's surely a lose already to them as they're not going to get any refund anymore. And I agree, everyone should take a closer look to their terms.

So, when things like things happens, they're aware whether it is going to be a favor to them or not.

[Dave1]

Guys, now that Joe Biden is out of the presidential race, do we have any confirmed info on what happens to already placed bets on Biden? I'd expect those to be refunded. I'm asking this in advance incase we get to see any more surprises with the current line up of candidates because Democrats can just switch candidate again if they feel like Kamala Harris won't generate enough traction to win it.

No clue but I'd have to think that any bet on biden shoukd be refunded.  If you bet on the democratic party to win then I can see why they would not refund people because it insinuated that no matter who it is you are betting on the party rather than the person.  If you bet on biden specifically I'd be surprised as to what happens in terms of tlrefunds because there are tons of bets on him already.  Same with Trump, if the democratic party withdraws and changes then do.ypu thing that the betting houses will void the trump bets?  His withdraw definitely screwd things up.

I guess I'd have to do a little more digging. I thought by now some bookies might have resolved the bets but seems that's not the case (yet). Refund should be the optimal case forward and just open new markets for Kamala. And yes, I second your opinion about setting the presidential race markets on parties rather than candidates since we can have multiple candidates for a single party over the course of presidential race / campaign period.

Yeah, I do agree that refund should be the best recourse of action from gambling casinos as Biden is out already. And I saw that it had open up and listed Kamala already, and with that the bookies could have refunded by this time.

But not sure if those who beat on Biden might go the same with Kamala. Although Kamala might have closing the gap, Trump still leads so they might have to think twice again betting on Harris.

[Hirose UK]

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+1
Hey, I understand you, the social and political issue you mention, I think that we all want that in a certain way, fair elections and that the best person wins from the point of view of attitudes and aptitudes.

In my case, I am not on the social board,right?, therefore let's not fall into political passions and extra "sports" analysis, this is about bets, political analysis is necessary, but there is a very thin line between confusing it with personal appreciations for a bet.

That's right, I can say that the best things that Trump can Show politically is that he has a big Advantage, now, the markets are going down a lot, it is rumored that it is because of Kamala Harris's action, so in this aspect things can take a different approach, I could see that it is because of that action, I have not followed much of the things she has said or stated, but there is a certain level of mistrust and the bad thing is that it could affect the economic system , it is said that there could be a crash of the US Economic system.

Rumors problem of significant market decline is not only about Kamala Harris actions but also what Biden did, but this is just problem that is not felt by everyone but only few people who are indeed related to the cryptocurrency industry.
Because basically Biden, who also supports Kamala Harris, has quite lot of loyal supporters who are always trying to get more support.
In terms of betting on both of them becoming candidates who can compete fiercely, Trump looks more superior with the predicted chance of victory that can be obtained absolutely, but no one knows what will happen next.
If Trump can start fixing everything and really provide solutions and also efforts to overcome problem about the US economic system that might happen, then I sure he will still get lot of sympathy from most US citizens and that is very beneficial for Trump.

[Hispo]

I am pretty sure most of the people here who have bets on either Trump or Kamala Harris have heard about project 2025. Do you think there is a chance that project becoming a mainstream taking point could influence over the odds of Trump? So far I have not noticed anything, I was expecting the Odds of Trump to increase a bit.

It seems there are few topics which could influence in the odds and chances of Trump to win the elections, in the eyes of bettors.
Don't you think it is weird something like cognitive decline or cognitive ability has more weight on this election than some alledged plan by the right wing to take over the government of the United States?, as if people who bet did not even care about the existence of such alledged plans..

[cabron]

I am pretty sure most of the people here who have bets on either Trump or Kamala Harris have heard about project 2025. Do you think there is a chance that project becoming a mainstream taking point could influence over the odds of Trump? So far I have not noticed anything, I was expecting the Odds of Trump to increase a bit.

It seems there are few topics which could influence in the odds and chances of Trump to win the elections, in the eyes of bettors.
Don't you think it is weird something like cognitive decline or cognitive ability has more weight on this election than some alledged plan by the right wing to take over the government of the United States?, as if people who bet did not even care about the existence of such alledged plans..

This is considered a conspiracy theory as well. I heard of that project 2025 but surprisingly people are not up to believe what the government or the media is saying anymore conspiracy or not. One conspiracy theory to believe in is that whether Trump or Kamala will win, the people know it's not them who will decide what is good for the people.  We saw what happened to Joe who are not aware of where he is but is still considered the POTUS. Who decides what is to be decided since his dementia got worse? I'm sure it's not him.  The cognitive ability doesn't matter whether far right or left is the one sitting on the Whitehouse.

[Sithara007]

With 3 months to go, the polls are suddenly showing Kamala Harris in the lead. I am not sure how reliable these are. During the last few days, polls from Marquette, Economist/YouGov, NPR/PBS/Marist, I&I/TIPP, SurveyUSA and Morning Consult have put Harris ahead. The last one to have Trump leading was published many days back, by Rasmussen Reports. Anyway, Trump is still going strong in most of the swing states, which means that the bump for Harris might have occurred in deep-blue states such as California. 

[criptoevangelista]

With 3 months to go, the polls are suddenly showing Kamala Harris in the lead. I am not sure how reliable these are. During the last few days, polls from Marquette, Economist/YouGov, NPR/PBS/Marist, I&I/TIPP, SurveyUSA and Morning Consult have put Harris ahead. The last one to have Trump leading was published many days back, by Rasmussen Reports. Anyway, Trump is still going strong in most of the swing states, which means that the bump for Harris might have occurred in deep-blue states such as California. 

These polls in my opinion don't mean much, it's perhaps some ploy by the media sector to get people to vote for Kamala Harris, after all, a person with leftist ideals is all the mainstream media wants. I still think that Donald Trump will be the big winner of this election, unless there is some kind of fraud in the elections.

[Silberman]

With 3 months to go, the polls are suddenly showing Kamala Harris in the lead. I am not sure how reliable these are. During the last few days, polls from Marquette, Economist/YouGov, NPR/PBS/Marist, I&I/TIPP, SurveyUSA and Morning Consult have put Harris ahead. The last one to have Trump leading was published many days back, by Rasmussen Reports. Anyway, Trump is still going strong in most of the swing states, which means that the bump for Harris might have occurred in deep-blue states such as California. 

That is the problem for Harris now, we know she is going to win the popular vote but on the swing states Trump has a chance, and it is obvious that her choice for VP was based on what was best to increase her chances to win those states, but I am not so sure if it is going to be enough to tip the scales on her favor, especially since so little time remains, as there are states in which some early voting will take place in September and October, so she needs results and she needs them fast, and the current drop on the stock market is not playing on her favor at all.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Rumors problem of significant market decline is not only about Kamala Harris actions but also what Biden did, but this is just problem that is not felt by everyone but only few people who are indeed related to the cryptocurrency industry.
Because basically Biden, who also supports Kamala Harris, has quite lot of loyal supporters who are always trying to get more support.
In terms of betting on both of them becoming candidates who can compete fiercely, Trump looks more superior with the predicted chance of victory that can be obtained absolutely, but no one knows what will happen next.
If Trump can start fixing everything and really provide solutions and also efforts to overcome problem about the US economic system that might happen, then I sure he will still get lot of sympathy from most US citizens and that is very beneficial for Trump.

Well, I am a person who can be critical from the point of view that some governments like in the USA do control many things, and only their effect or influence can make the markets fall or even rise, it is a fact that a crash in the markets is expected, but this should have happened in 2020-2021 but everything was diverted thanks to the covid 19 effect, which left everyone speechless, somehow things are delayed, but it is a fact that the world economy is in a silent recession, and whoever has not seen it only has to look at the charts and analyze the volume and degree of fear of investors, I would blame 75% on the effects of the US government, the rest on "several".

[AmoreJaz]

With 3 months to go, the polls are suddenly showing Kamala Harris in the lead. I am not sure how reliable these are. During the last few days, polls from Marquette, Economist/YouGov, NPR/PBS/Marist, I&I/TIPP, SurveyUSA and Morning Consult have put Harris ahead. The last one to have Trump leading was published many days back, by Rasmussen Reports. Anyway, Trump is still going strong in most of the swing states, which means that the bump for Harris might have occurred in deep-blue states such as California. 

That is the problem for Harris now, we know she is going to win the popular vote but on the swing states Trump has a chance, and it is obvious that her choice for VP was based on what was best to increase her chances to win those states, but I am not so sure if it is going to be enough to tip the scales on her favor, especially since so little time remains, as there are states in which some early voting will take place in September and October, so she needs results and she needs them fast, and the current drop on the stock market is not playing on her favor at all.

It's gonna be a hard work for her to win on this upcoming election. However, Harris will make a good contender to fight Trump rather than Biden. She has the health to continue doing political activities. Let us see how the pulse of people will change in the next couple of months.

[Sithara007]

It's gonna be a hard work for her to win on this upcoming election. However, Harris will make a good contender to fight Trump rather than Biden. She has the health to continue doing political activities. Let us see how the pulse of people will change in the next couple of months.

No. I don't agree with this argument. Harris is too far to the left and that makes her a worse candidate when compared to Joe Biden. The only advantage for her at the moment is that the argument for the first female president of the United States is going to help her. But in swing states, the popularity of Harris is much lower when compared to that of Trump. Unless Harris can find a way to increase her support levels in states such as Pennsylvania and Georgia, she doesn't stand a chance to win the elections.

[famososMuertos]

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There is always a lot of drama with elections in the United States, there are 2 sides that use everything to achieve their objectives, and in that sense, rumor is something that the media uses to excess, but in that idea, "the collapse" is something that the Americans really know how to handle well, and they do it because whoever is in the control room always gets the money to keep the economy afloat, either by adding more debt or printing greenbacks.

[bitgolden]

The situation is simple; Republicans will try to make gerrymandering an issue, and try to make sure that they can make voting as hard as possible for people who would be willing to vote, and I mean legal voters, I do not believe in the fairy tales of republicans that illegals vote, there has been 4 cases found in total of 150+ million voters last time, but they keep telling the same lie.

So the outcome is this; if republicans can make voting very hard, democrats will not have a choice but not to vote because they have to go to work and have other stuff so voting for democrats will be lesser.

BUT if democrats all go out to vote? They are so much more than republicans that Kamala would get 300+ electoral votes, she will win easily and by a huge margin as well, it would not be close. So it is al about who will go out to vote, we all know republicans will vote, it's in their DNA, they vote for even the smallest things, but dems do not go out to vote for even presidency, if they do, trump has no chance.

[OgNasty]

I'm surprised to see the odds on Trump so high.  2.1:1 at the moment which is quite a bit higher than they were pre-Kamala.  I'm taking advantage and stacking a bet with Team USA to win the gold medal.  This makes quite a few bets I have on old Donald come November.  Hopefully the country doesn't do something monumentally stupid.  Can't put it passed large groups of people to do the worst possible thing, but I remain hopeful.  I'll admit though, seeing the lines of illegals waiting for licenses so they can vote (yes, illegals vote and democrats oppose actual checks to keep it from happening) does make me worry a bit.

[Sithara007]

I'm surprised to see the odds on Trump so high.  2.1:1 at the moment which is quite a bit higher than they were pre-Kamala.  I'm taking advantage and stacking a bet with Team USA to win the gold medal.  This makes quite a few bets I have on old Donald come November.  Hopefully the country doesn't do something monumentally stupid.  Can't put it passed large groups of people to do the worst possible thing, but I remain hopeful.  I'll admit though, seeing the lines of illegals waiting for licenses so they can vote (yes, illegals vote and democrats oppose actual checks to keep it from happening) does make me worry a bit.

Illegals do vote in American elections. No matter how much the Democrats try to shout you down when you raise this topic, it happens on industrial scale. I don't think that in any other nation in the world, people are allowed to vote without the requirement of a government ID. Here in India, we have a list of 4-5 ID documents that can be used to verify your identity before voting. If you can't present them, then you will not be allowed to vote. As simple as that. But no such mechanism exists in the US, thanks to the Dems.

[ultrloa]

It's gonna be a hard work for her to win on this upcoming election. However, Harris will make a good contender to fight Trump rather than Biden. She has the health to continue doing political activities. Let us see how the pulse of people will change in the next couple of months.

No. I don't agree with this argument. Harris is too far to the left and that makes her a worse candidate when compared to Joe Biden. The only advantage for her at the moment is that the argument for the first female president of the United States is going to help her. But in swing states, the popularity of Harris is much lower when compared to that of Trump. Unless Harris can find a way to increase her support levels in states such as Pennsylvania and Georgia, she doesn't stand a chance to win the elections.

That statement regarding to be possible the first female candidate give some statement that she could bring something new to US that's why she's still relevant as big opponent of Trump in their presidential bid.

But aside from that I guess there's no other thing make here stronger so I guess all has been hyped with current issues has been discussed by Trump and many people look forward that everything would really happen under his term. Right now if we look at the current situation we could able to see that Trump is really dominating. But let see on upcoming months if there's changes and candidates should do more better since they really need to have good convincing power to get those votes.

Right now I go with current strongest since I  also thin that Trump has more higher chance to win among the other candidates.

[beerlover]

Just do it by the tax records, if you can pay taxes then you should be allowed to apply for a vote with the priviso of all the normal requirements.   Special biometrics seems ridiculous to me when its not monetary and its already true you can be jailed for deliberate fraud.  

Some issues will arise if the US follow your advice on voting and I do not see anything wrong in conducting the needed biometrics for the benefit of a fair election in this technological age. If developing countries are conducting it for such an electoral process, how much more is the US which many countries are behind them in technology?

And for the record, the US electoral system is very fair and unique and I wonder why tax records should only be the requirement to be eligible to vote. If it is done that way, mentally ill people, underage citizens, non-US citizens, and even convicts of some dangerous felonies will be eligible to vote. This is against not only the US law but also international laws.

I am not sure if it's that fair. Saying that "if we do that then some states will not have a voice" as a defense, means that bigger states do not have their population counted at all. That makes no sense, just because California and New York has a lot of people, does that mean only some of those people should be eligible and the rest is not?

A tiny state has half the votes that they have? When their population is ten times bigger? That makes no sense to me. Popular vote is the way to go, it makes sense and it allows that everyone gets an equal share.

There is no "state" when you are picking the president of the whole nation, that means every single human should be counted as one vote. If republicans trust themselves so much, let it be popular vote, they won't because they know that they will never win the election ever again, they will lose miserably every single time.

If you make it popular vote, it's clear that the nation prefers democrat candidate, republicans won the popular vote like twice or something in over 30 years, hence it should be clear that they are complaining about illegals and all that trying to grasp the last straws to have a possibility to win. They know that the nation doesn't want them by large majority.

[Sithara007]

That statement regarding to be possible the first female candidate give some statement that she could bring something new to US that's why she's still relevant as big opponent of Trump in their presidential bid.

But aside from that I guess there's no other thing make here stronger so I guess all has been hyped with current issues has been discussed by Trump and many people look forward that everything would really happen under his term. Right now if we look at the current situation we could able to see that Trump is really dominating. But let see on upcoming months if there's changes and candidates should do more better since they really need to have good convincing power to get those votes.

Right now I go with current strongest since I  also thin that Trump has more higher chance to win among the other candidates.

Whatever negatives that are there with Biden will be amplified manyfold in case Harris becomes the President of the United States. Under a possible Harris presidency, millions more of illegal aliens will cross over to the United States. Inflation will be higher, taxes will go up, and there will be more wasteful spending. On the other hand, Trump is someone who understands business and can keep things under his control. Anyway, nowadays elections in US are hardly being fought on the capabilities of candidates. It is now about the right vs left narrative.

[bbc.reporter]

I am not quite certain on the latest polls and surveys, however, it appears that after the speculations and predictions that the assassination attack on Trump has given him a certainty to win the presidency, this is not true! The Trump hype is decreasing according to the predictors in Polymarket.

I have a prediction that the debate on September will give the advantage again to Trump. If this prediction is wrong, this will be headshaking for the Republicans hehehehehe.  



https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election?tid=1723171447252